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![Page 1: The Global and Serbia’s Economy Lecture at the Economic Faculty Belgrade, May 22, 2012 Bogdan Lissovolik IMF Resident Representative for Serbia.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022070412/56649e525503460f94b481e2/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
The Global and Serbia’s EconomyLecture at the Economic Faculty
Belgrade, May 22, 2012
Bogdan Lissovolik IMF Resident Representative for Serbia
![Page 2: The Global and Serbia’s Economy Lecture at the Economic Faculty Belgrade, May 22, 2012 Bogdan Lissovolik IMF Resident Representative for Serbia.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022070412/56649e525503460f94b481e2/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
OutlineOutline
Where are we?
Where are we going?
What are the risks?
What needs to be done?
Serbia’s economy?
![Page 3: The Global and Serbia’s Economy Lecture at the Economic Faculty Belgrade, May 22, 2012 Bogdan Lissovolik IMF Resident Representative for Serbia.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022070412/56649e525503460f94b481e2/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
OutlineOutline
Where are we?
Where are we going?
What are the risks?
What needs to be done?
Serbia’s economy?
![Page 4: The Global and Serbia’s Economy Lecture at the Economic Faculty Belgrade, May 22, 2012 Bogdan Lissovolik IMF Resident Representative for Serbia.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022070412/56649e525503460f94b481e2/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
WHAT IS IMF ? GLOBAL MEMBERSHIPWHAT IS IMF ? GLOBAL MEMBERSHIP
187 COUNTRIES REPRESENTEDNON-MEMBERS INCLUDE: CUBA, NORTH KOREA, ANDORRA, MONACO, NAURU, LIECHTENSTEIN
187 COUNTRIES REPRESENTEDNON-MEMBERS INCLUDE: CUBA, NORTH KOREA, ANDORRA, MONACO, NAURU, LIECHTENSTEIN
MANDATE: GLOBAL ECONOMIC & FINANCIAL STABILITYMANDATE: GLOBAL ECONOMIC & FINANCIAL STABILITYSHORT-TERM BALANCE OF PAYMENT SUPPORTFACILITATE EXPANSION IN TRADE, HIGH LEVELS OF EMPLOYMENT AND INCOMESHORT-TERM BALANCE OF PAYMENT SUPPORTFACILITATE EXPANSION IN TRADE, HIGH LEVELS OF EMPLOYMENT AND INCOME
PILLAR OF MULTILATERALISMPILLAR OF MULTILATERALISMPROMOTES ECONOMIC COOPERATIONCOMPLEMENTS THE UN, WORLD BANK, WTO & ILOPROMOTES ECONOMIC COOPERATIONCOMPLEMENTS THE UN, WORLD BANK, WTO & ILO
![Page 5: The Global and Serbia’s Economy Lecture at the Economic Faculty Belgrade, May 22, 2012 Bogdan Lissovolik IMF Resident Representative for Serbia.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022070412/56649e525503460f94b481e2/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Where are we?Where are we?
Output Growth, 2011Q4
![Page 6: The Global and Serbia’s Economy Lecture at the Economic Faculty Belgrade, May 22, 2012 Bogdan Lissovolik IMF Resident Representative for Serbia.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022070412/56649e525503460f94b481e2/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Where are we?Where are we?
Public Debt(% of GDP)
![Page 7: The Global and Serbia’s Economy Lecture at the Economic Faculty Belgrade, May 22, 2012 Bogdan Lissovolik IMF Resident Representative for Serbia.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022070412/56649e525503460f94b481e2/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Where are we?Where are we?
10-Year Government Bond Yields
![Page 8: The Global and Serbia’s Economy Lecture at the Economic Faculty Belgrade, May 22, 2012 Bogdan Lissovolik IMF Resident Representative for Serbia.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022070412/56649e525503460f94b481e2/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Where are we?Where are we?
Capital Flows to Emerging Markets and Developing Economies($US billion; weekly)
Greece Crisis
Ireland Crisis
ECBLTRO
![Page 9: The Global and Serbia’s Economy Lecture at the Economic Faculty Belgrade, May 22, 2012 Bogdan Lissovolik IMF Resident Representative for Serbia.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022070412/56649e525503460f94b481e2/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Where are we?Where are we?
Unemployment rates
![Page 10: The Global and Serbia’s Economy Lecture at the Economic Faculty Belgrade, May 22, 2012 Bogdan Lissovolik IMF Resident Representative for Serbia.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022070412/56649e525503460f94b481e2/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
OutlineOutline
Where are we?
Where are we going?
What are the risks?
What needs to be done?
Serbia’s economy?
![Page 11: The Global and Serbia’s Economy Lecture at the Economic Faculty Belgrade, May 22, 2012 Bogdan Lissovolik IMF Resident Representative for Serbia.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022070412/56649e525503460f94b481e2/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Where are we going?Where are we going?
Output Growth, 2012-13
![Page 12: The Global and Serbia’s Economy Lecture at the Economic Faculty Belgrade, May 22, 2012 Bogdan Lissovolik IMF Resident Representative for Serbia.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022070412/56649e525503460f94b481e2/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Where are we going?Where are we going?
The Brakes: Fiscal Consolidation(change in the structural balance; percentage points of potential GDP)
![Page 13: The Global and Serbia’s Economy Lecture at the Economic Faculty Belgrade, May 22, 2012 Bogdan Lissovolik IMF Resident Representative for Serbia.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022070412/56649e525503460f94b481e2/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
The Brakes: Bank Deleveraging
Where are we going?Where are we going?
Projected Fall in Bank Lending Supply, 2012-13
Effect of Deleveraging on Output Level(% deviation from no-deleveraging scenario)
![Page 14: The Global and Serbia’s Economy Lecture at the Economic Faculty Belgrade, May 22, 2012 Bogdan Lissovolik IMF Resident Representative for Serbia.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022070412/56649e525503460f94b481e2/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
What Are The Drivers Of Bank Deleveraging?
Structural drivers…
• Balance sheet clean-up and shedding of legacy assets• Better capitalization• Reduce reliance on less stable funding sources
. . . shaped by cyclical financial and macro conditions
• Under adverse conditions capital generation more difficult• Funding pressures could also place strains on banks
10
![Page 15: The Global and Serbia’s Economy Lecture at the Economic Faculty Belgrade, May 22, 2012 Bogdan Lissovolik IMF Resident Representative for Serbia.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022070412/56649e525503460f94b481e2/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Where are we going?Where are we going?
Real GDP Growth
Sept. 2011 WEO
Sept. 2011 WEO
Advanced Economies Emerging and Developing Economies
![Page 16: The Global and Serbia’s Economy Lecture at the Economic Faculty Belgrade, May 22, 2012 Bogdan Lissovolik IMF Resident Representative for Serbia.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022070412/56649e525503460f94b481e2/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
OutlineOutline
Where are we?
Where are we going?
What are the risks?
What needs to be done?
Serbia’s economy?
![Page 17: The Global and Serbia’s Economy Lecture at the Economic Faculty Belgrade, May 22, 2012 Bogdan Lissovolik IMF Resident Representative for Serbia.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022070412/56649e525503460f94b481e2/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
What are the risks?What are the risks?
RISK 1:RISK 1:Euro Area Euro Area
CrisisCrisis
RISK 2:RISK 2:Oil PricesOil Prices
![Page 18: The Global and Serbia’s Economy Lecture at the Economic Faculty Belgrade, May 22, 2012 Bogdan Lissovolik IMF Resident Representative for Serbia.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022070412/56649e525503460f94b481e2/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
BANKSBANKS
viciouscycles
FISCALFISCAL
GROWTHGROWTH
What are the risks?What are the risks?
![Page 19: The Global and Serbia’s Economy Lecture at the Economic Faculty Belgrade, May 22, 2012 Bogdan Lissovolik IMF Resident Representative for Serbia.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022070412/56649e525503460f94b481e2/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
BANKSBANKS
viciouscycles
FISCALFISCAL
GROWTHGROWTH
What are the risks?What are the risks?
![Page 20: The Global and Serbia’s Economy Lecture at the Economic Faculty Belgrade, May 22, 2012 Bogdan Lissovolik IMF Resident Representative for Serbia.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022070412/56649e525503460f94b481e2/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
What are the risks?What are the risks?
Exports of Goods to the Euro Area
(2010)
Euro Area Bank Claims(% of GDP; Sep. 2011)
Eu
roA
rea
Em
ergi
ng
Eu
rop
e
Oth
er A
dv.
E
uro
pe
CIS
ME
NA
SS
A
Dev
. A
sia
LA
C
Ad
v.A
sia
US
A+
CA
N
Em
ergi
ng
Eu
rop
e
Oth
er A
dv.
E
uro
pe
US
A+
CA
N
LA
C
CIS
ME
NA
Ad
v.A
sia
SS
A
![Page 21: The Global and Serbia’s Economy Lecture at the Economic Faculty Belgrade, May 22, 2012 Bogdan Lissovolik IMF Resident Representative for Serbia.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022070412/56649e525503460f94b481e2/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
What are the risks?What are the risks?
RISK 1:RISK 1:Euro Area Euro Area
CrisisCrisis
RISK 2:RISK 2:Oil PricesOil Prices
![Page 22: The Global and Serbia’s Economy Lecture at the Economic Faculty Belgrade, May 22, 2012 Bogdan Lissovolik IMF Resident Representative for Serbia.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022070412/56649e525503460f94b481e2/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
What are the risks?What are the risks?
WEO Downside Scenario for a Disruption in the Global Oil Supply(% deviation from WEO baseline)
![Page 23: The Global and Serbia’s Economy Lecture at the Economic Faculty Belgrade, May 22, 2012 Bogdan Lissovolik IMF Resident Representative for Serbia.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022070412/56649e525503460f94b481e2/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
What are the risks?What are the risks?
WEO Downside Scenario for a Disruption in the Global Oil Supply(percent or percentage point deviation from baseline)
GDP Loss after Two Years Rise in Inflation after One Year
![Page 24: The Global and Serbia’s Economy Lecture at the Economic Faculty Belgrade, May 22, 2012 Bogdan Lissovolik IMF Resident Representative for Serbia.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022070412/56649e525503460f94b481e2/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
OutlineOutline
Where are we?
Where are we going?
What are the risks?
What needs to be done?
Serbia’s economy?
![Page 25: The Global and Serbia’s Economy Lecture at the Economic Faculty Belgrade, May 22, 2012 Bogdan Lissovolik IMF Resident Representative for Serbia.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022070412/56649e525503460f94b481e2/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
What needs to be done? (policies)What needs to be done? (policies)
Fiscal policies: gradual consolidation
Monetary and liquidity policies should continue to be accommodative, if possible
Well-coordinated policy package – in most countries
Structural reforms to boost long-term productivity and employment
Support for the unemployed (social policies)
More international coordination of macro-financial policies
Strengthening the global firewall
Macro-prudential policies need to be strengthened
![Page 26: The Global and Serbia’s Economy Lecture at the Economic Faculty Belgrade, May 22, 2012 Bogdan Lissovolik IMF Resident Representative for Serbia.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022070412/56649e525503460f94b481e2/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
What needs to be done? (policies)What needs to be done? (policies)
Implementation of a clear medium-term fiscal adjustment plan is a key requirement for sustainable growth, with support of fiscal institutions
Fiscal policy
Growth enhancing measures are very important for the fiscal accounts!
Fiscal adjustment should proceed at a steady pace (if there is fiscal space); not too fast not too slow
Challenges:Secure adjustment/reform without immediate market/political pressureDifficult dilemma if there is not fiscal space – no access to borrowing with high deficits…
![Page 27: The Global and Serbia’s Economy Lecture at the Economic Faculty Belgrade, May 22, 2012 Bogdan Lissovolik IMF Resident Representative for Serbia.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022070412/56649e525503460f94b481e2/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
FISCAL
ADJUSTMENT
Insufficient adjustment could undermine fiscal credibility and lead to fiscal crises, which would be bad for growth
Too much fiscal adjustment could
weaken aggregate
demand, which would be bad for
growth
Fiscal consolidation: Goldilocks Principle: “Not too hot, not too cold, just right” – depends on the specific
circumstances
![Page 28: The Global and Serbia’s Economy Lecture at the Economic Faculty Belgrade, May 22, 2012 Bogdan Lissovolik IMF Resident Representative for Serbia.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022070412/56649e525503460f94b481e2/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
What needs to be done? (policies)What needs to be done? (policies)
Challenges: When and how to tighten monetary policy? – some program are time-limited
If inflation re-emerges while financial system/recovery is still fragile -- a difficult trade-off…
Restructuring central bank balance sheets after unconventional policies How to respond to the oil shock?What if fiscal consolidation sputters? How to communicate to anchor expectations?The challenge of unbalanced external position and foreign currency dominance in emerging markets – constrains scope for looser monetary policy.
Monetary policy Monetary and liquidity policies should continue to be accommodative -- in most countries, especially as weak demand continues to kip a lid on inflation;
![Page 29: The Global and Serbia’s Economy Lecture at the Economic Faculty Belgrade, May 22, 2012 Bogdan Lissovolik IMF Resident Representative for Serbia.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022070412/56649e525503460f94b481e2/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
What needs to be done? (policies)What needs to be done? (policies)
Challenges: How to reduce reliance on unstable funding sources?How to limit de-leveraging?How to deal with NPLs and legacy assets?How to regulate cross-border transactions?
Macroprudential policy Adequate financial regulation, supervision, capitalization, liquidity, and crisis-management frameworks.
![Page 30: The Global and Serbia’s Economy Lecture at the Economic Faculty Belgrade, May 22, 2012 Bogdan Lissovolik IMF Resident Representative for Serbia.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022070412/56649e525503460f94b481e2/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
What needs to be done? (regions/countries)What needs to be done? (regions/countries)
Building a stronger currency union•Improved fiscal rules and institutions
Strengthening banking systems
Euro Area
![Page 31: The Global and Serbia’s Economy Lecture at the Economic Faculty Belgrade, May 22, 2012 Bogdan Lissovolik IMF Resident Representative for Serbia.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022070412/56649e525503460f94b481e2/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
What needs to be done? (countries/regions)What needs to be done? (countries/regions)
Rebuilding macroeconomic policy room
Strengthening prudential policies and frameworks
Promoting more inclusive growth
Most Emerging Market and Developing Economies
![Page 32: The Global and Serbia’s Economy Lecture at the Economic Faculty Belgrade, May 22, 2012 Bogdan Lissovolik IMF Resident Representative for Serbia.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022070412/56649e525503460f94b481e2/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
What needs to be done? (countries)What needs to be done? (countries)
Fostering domestic consumption, including through more exchange rate flexibility
Economies with Large External Surpluses
Economies with Large External Deficits
Developing a domestic policy mix to gradually rebalance toward a sustainable export-oriented growth, based on FDI and prudent macroeconomic policies
![Page 33: The Global and Serbia’s Economy Lecture at the Economic Faculty Belgrade, May 22, 2012 Bogdan Lissovolik IMF Resident Representative for Serbia.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022070412/56649e525503460f94b481e2/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
OutlineOutline
Where are we?
Where are we going?
What are the risks?
Serbia’s economy?
What needs to be done?
![Page 34: The Global and Serbia’s Economy Lecture at the Economic Faculty Belgrade, May 22, 2012 Bogdan Lissovolik IMF Resident Representative for Serbia.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022070412/56649e525503460f94b481e2/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
The “old-model” problem…
![Page 35: The Global and Serbia’s Economy Lecture at the Economic Faculty Belgrade, May 22, 2012 Bogdan Lissovolik IMF Resident Representative for Serbia.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022070412/56649e525503460f94b481e2/html5/thumbnails/35.jpg)
Still-large External Deficit
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Current Account Deficit(percent of GDP)
Serbia SEE /1 CEE 2/
1/ Albania, Bosnia and Hercegovina, Croatia and Macedonia FYR.2/ New EU-10 excluding the Baltics.
![Page 36: The Global and Serbia’s Economy Lecture at the Economic Faculty Belgrade, May 22, 2012 Bogdan Lissovolik IMF Resident Representative for Serbia.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022070412/56649e525503460f94b481e2/html5/thumbnails/36.jpg)
And relatively high unit labor costs
![Page 37: The Global and Serbia’s Economy Lecture at the Economic Faculty Belgrade, May 22, 2012 Bogdan Lissovolik IMF Resident Representative for Serbia.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022070412/56649e525503460f94b481e2/html5/thumbnails/37.jpg)
With real wage outpacing productivity
![Page 38: The Global and Serbia’s Economy Lecture at the Economic Faculty Belgrade, May 22, 2012 Bogdan Lissovolik IMF Resident Representative for Serbia.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022070412/56649e525503460f94b481e2/html5/thumbnails/38.jpg)
And public debt becoming a problem
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180Figure 2. Public Debt in Selected Economies, 2011(percent of GDP)
Sources: National authorities, IMF, and staff estimates
![Page 39: The Global and Serbia’s Economy Lecture at the Economic Faculty Belgrade, May 22, 2012 Bogdan Lissovolik IMF Resident Representative for Serbia.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022070412/56649e525503460f94b481e2/html5/thumbnails/39.jpg)
Fueled by public spending
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Arm
en
ia
Alb
an
ia
Ma
ce
don
ia
Bu
lga
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Sw
itze
rla
nd
Ro
ma
nia
Ru
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Slo
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k R
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Be
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La
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Cro
atia
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ite
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ain
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ece
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ly
Ne
the
rla
nds
Au
str
ia
Be
lgiu
m
Fin
lan
d
De
nm
ark
Fra
nce
Sources: National authorities, IMF, and staff estimates
Figure 8. General Government Expenditure in Selected Economies, 2011 (percent of GDP)
sample average
![Page 40: The Global and Serbia’s Economy Lecture at the Economic Faculty Belgrade, May 22, 2012 Bogdan Lissovolik IMF Resident Representative for Serbia.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022070412/56649e525503460f94b481e2/html5/thumbnails/40.jpg)
With pension spending especially high
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20P
akis
tan
In
do
ne
sia
In
dia
T
ha
ila
nd
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exic
o
Ko
rea
P
hilip
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uth
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ica
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au
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rab
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Ma
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ela
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alia
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an
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ile
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nite
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orw
ay
Arg
en
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Lu
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rg
Ro
ma
nia
C
ze
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blic
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D
en
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witze
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nd
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razil
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ain
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sto
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S
we
de
n
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pa
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inla
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ola
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ree
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P
ort
ug
al
Fra
nce
A
ustr
ia
Se
rbia
Ita
ly
Ukra
ine
Pension expenditure
Advanced countries (average)
Emerging countries (average)
Sources: National authorities, IMF, and staff estimates
Figure 9. Pension Expenditure, 2010(percent of GDP)
![Page 41: The Global and Serbia’s Economy Lecture at the Economic Faculty Belgrade, May 22, 2012 Bogdan Lissovolik IMF Resident Representative for Serbia.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022070412/56649e525503460f94b481e2/html5/thumbnails/41.jpg)
What to do?
✤ 1. Fiscal consolidation through structural reforms of spending (pensions, wage bill)
✤ 2. Product market reforms
✤ 3. Labor market reforms
![Page 42: The Global and Serbia’s Economy Lecture at the Economic Faculty Belgrade, May 22, 2012 Bogdan Lissovolik IMF Resident Representative for Serbia.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022070412/56649e525503460f94b481e2/html5/thumbnails/42.jpg)
Attract the right kind of FDI
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011*
Manufacturing Wholesale and retail trade, repair
Transport, storage and communications Financial intermediation
Real estate, renting and business activities Other
Gross FDI by branch of activity, million euro
![Page 43: The Global and Serbia’s Economy Lecture at the Economic Faculty Belgrade, May 22, 2012 Bogdan Lissovolik IMF Resident Representative for Serbia.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022070412/56649e525503460f94b481e2/html5/thumbnails/43.jpg)
Reform severance benefits
![Page 44: The Global and Serbia’s Economy Lecture at the Economic Faculty Belgrade, May 22, 2012 Bogdan Lissovolik IMF Resident Representative for Serbia.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022070412/56649e525503460f94b481e2/html5/thumbnails/44.jpg)
Thank YouThank You