The Global Agricultural Landscape – Feeding More Than 9 ...Master of Agribusiness Click to edit...

Master of Agribusiness

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The Global Agricultural Landscape –Feeding More Than 9 Billion People

Allen FeatherstoneKansas State University


Click to edit Master title styleGlobal Population – A World of 7 Billion


Click to edit Master title styleGlobal Food Security - 2014


Click to edit Master title styleUnderstanding the Food and Agribusiness Challenges

• Global Demand– Population– Income

• Global Supply– Land Resources– Productivity


Click to edit Master title styleGlobal Population

0

1

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5

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7

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9

10

1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Billion

s


Click to edit Master title styleGlobal Population by Region

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1

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5

6

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Billion

s

Africa Asia Europe Latin America North America Oceana


Click to edit Master title styleRegions of Asia


Click to edit Master title styleAsia Population by Region

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0.5

1

1.5

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2.5

3

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

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Eastern South Central South Eastern Western China India


Click to edit Master title stylePopulation

• Global Population will increase from 7.1 to 9.4 billion by 2050 representing a 32% increase– Asia will increase from 4.3 to 5.2 billion; a 22% increase– Africa will increase from 1.0 to 2.1 billion; a 104% increase

• India will overtake China as the most populated country around 2025– Together they will constitute about 35% of the worlds

population


Click to edit Master title stylePopulation by Development Group

• Population in the Most Developed Countries will increase from 1.25 to 1.29 billion by 2050– Growth of 3.5%

• Population in the Least Developed Countries will increase from 0.9 to 1.8 billion by 2050– Growth of 100.5%

• Population in the In-Between Countries will increase from 4.9 to 6.3 billion by 2050– Growth of 26.8%


Click to edit Master title stylePer Capita Nominal GDP (1980-2030)

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20,000

40,000

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1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Australia Brazil China France India Kenya U.S.


Click to edit Master title stylePer Capita Nominal GDP Percent Change

‐40%

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‐20%

‐10%

0%

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1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Australia Brazil China France India Kenya U.S.


Click to edit Master title styleIncome

• Global per capita income will grow dramatically over the next 15 years

• The Economist’s Economic Intelligence Unit projects per capita income to annual increase by:– 4.07% in Australia– 3.65% in Brazil– 10.66% in China– 2.67% in France– 13.04% in India– 6.35% in Kenya– 4.01% in the U.S.


Click to edit Master title styleGlobal Connectedness – Relationship Among World

Equity Markets

‐70.00%

‐60.00%

‐50.00%

‐40.00%

‐30.00%

‐20.00%

‐10.00%

0.00%

10.00%

20.00%

30.00%

Oct‐07

Dec‐07

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Oct‐08

Dec‐08

Feb‐09

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Jun‐09

Aug‐09

Oct‐09

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U.S. Germany Japan Hong Kong France Australia Brazil India


Click to edit Master title stylePopulation and Income Equals Increased Food Demand

• Demand for cereals for food and animal feed projected to increase from 2.1 to 3.0 billion tons by 2050 according to the FAO

• Demand for meat production projected to increase from 200 to 470 million tons

• That increase in demand will create opportunities for agribusiness


Click to edit Master title styleOpportunity and Challenges for Agribusiness

• FAO estimates that 90% of the growth in crop production will need to come from higher yields and increased cropping intensity

• In addition, arable land will have to expand by about 120 million hectares


Click to edit Master title styleMean Precipitation 1961-1996


Click to edit Master title styleSoil Water Holding Capacity


Click to edit Master title styleGlobal Arable Land


Click to edit Master title styleTop Ten Countries for Arable Land (2012)


Click to edit Master title styleCountry Arable Land From 1961 - 2012


Click to edit Master title styleArable Land

• Top ten countries make up 58.0% of arable land• Global arable land increased until 1992, fell

slightly to 2007 and has increased slightly since.• In 2012, there was

– 9.3% more than in 1961– 0.5% less than in 1991– 1.2% more than in 2007


Click to edit Master title stylePotential Growth in Land Area

• Brazil– USDA FAS estimates 145 to 170 million ha

• 10 million ha Amazon deforestation• 65 million ha Cerrados• 70 - 90 million from Pasture

• Russia– 20 million ha drop in arable land use since 1990

• U.S.– 12.5 million ha in Conservation Reserve Program

• Other regions


Click to edit Master title styleGlobal Wheat Yield

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5,000

10,000

15,000

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45,000

1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011

Hg/ha

World Africa N. America S. America Asia Europe Oceania


Click to edit Master title styleGlobal Soybean Yield

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5,000

10,000

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30,000

35,000

1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011

Hg/ha



Click to edit Master title styleGlobal Maize Yield

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20,000

40,000

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120,000

1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011

Hg/ha



Click to edit Master title styleAnnual Yield Growth 1961 - 2013

Maize Soybean Wheat Rice

World 1.94% 1.53% 2.07% 1.70%

Africa 1.23% 2.33% 2.28% 0.77%

Asia 2.90% 1.52% 2.70% 1.75%

Europe 2.10% 2.50% 2.27% 0.81%

North America 1.59% 1.06% 1.41% 1.40%

Oceania 2.32% 2.25% 0.98% 1.42%

South America 2.56% 1.82% 1.52% 2.15%


Click to edit Master title styleAnnual Yield Growth 1993 - 2013

Maize Soybean Wheat Rice

World 1.65% 1.12% 1.19% 1.16%

Africa 1.84% 2.91% 2.05% 0.97%

Asia 1.84% 0.64% 1.37% 1.14%

Europe 1.28% 0.61% 1.02% 1.70%

North America 1.18% 0.90% 1.29% 1.35%

Oceania 1.18% 0.81% 0.79% 0.84%

South America 3.49% 1.37% 1.55% 3.28%

Below 1961-2013 average, Above 1961-2013 average


Click to edit Master title styleProductivity

• Yield growth has been generally less in the 1993 to 2013 period than previously.

• Using the world compound growth in yields over the 1993 to 2013 between 2014 and 2050:– Wheat yields increase by 55.0%– Corn yields increase by 82.9%– Soybean yields increase by 50.7%– Rice yields increase by 53.2%

• The increase from 2.1 to 3.0 in cereals needed by 2050 is 0.97% per year or 42.9%


Click to edit Master title styleEfficiency Gain Potential in Post-Harvest

• In India, an estimated 35-40% of fruits and vegetables spoil

• In Africa, the estimated loss in 2008 of maize, sorghum, and rice was 22.4%, 12.5%, and 12.5%, respectively

• In SE Asia, rice post-harvest losses are estimated to be between 10 and 37% by the FAO

• Post-harvest losses represent a business opportunity


Click to edit Master title styleOpportunity and Challenges

• Managing Risk• Managing Fuel Production• Managing Trade• Managing Natural Resources• Managing Dietary Changes and Health


Click to edit Master title styleOpportunities Abound

• The global food and agriculture sector must step up to the challenges of a increasing and changing population.

• It will be difficult in some regions of the world to produce the amount of food demanded by the local population

• Globally, it appears demand can be met, but:– An increased emphasis on understanding the global supply

and demand will be needed– An increased emphasis on trade will be needed

The Global Agricultural Landscape – Feeding More Than 9 ...Master of Agribusiness Click to edit...

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