THE GERA PUNE - Gera Developments - Real Estate Builders ... · ROHIT GERA MANAGING DIRECTOR GERA...
Transcript of THE GERA PUNE - Gera Developments - Real Estate Builders ... · ROHIT GERA MANAGING DIRECTOR GERA...
THE GERA
PUNERESIDENTIAL
REALTY REPORTTHE YARDSTICK FOR PUNE REALTY
VOLUME 9 | ISSUE 1 | JUL - DEC 2019
CONTENTS
FOREWORD 4
INVENTORY OVERVIEW 7
NEW LAUNCHES 9
DEMAND AND SUPPLY GAPS 13
CYCLE ANALYSIS 15
PRICES 18
AFFORDABILITY 20
10 SUB MARKETS WITH MAXIMUM PRICE CORRECTION 22
HOME SIZES 23
SALES OVERVIEW 24
INVENTORY OVERHANG 26
INVENTORY VALUE AND SQUARE FEET 27
BREAKUP OF THE MARKET BY JURISDICTION (PMRDA, PMC, PCMC) 30
CONCLUSION 32
ANNEXURES 33
APPENDIX 34
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The Gera Pune Residential Realty Report | Volume 9 | Issue 1 | Jul - Dec 2019
FOREWORD
ROHIT GERA
MANAGING DIRECTOR
GERA DEVELOPMENTS PRIVATE LIMITED
The real estate industry prior to RERA used to be highly forgiving and flexible.
When it came to rules and approvals, developers did not have any deterrent to
build following the rules, often leading to illegal construction affecting customers
years later. Today development control rules are meticulously studied by customers
with RERA giving transparency to customers, further, courts have come down heavily
on illegal construction by developers. In addition to the development control rules,
other laws governing development including those around the environment are now
essential to follow meticulously.
In the past finance was easily available and rolling over debt, ever-greening of
loans, moving money from one project to the next land parcel were all considered
as standard industry practices for a large number of developers. Today, loan
rollovers are virtually impossible, fiscal discipline is mandatory and RERA ensures
funds cannot be taken out of the project. In case of default, use of construction
finance for other uses is now considered a serious, often criminal offense.
In a buoyant market, the herd mentality around the product led to every developer
imitating the next if the project did well. Today, customers are more discerning, they
will not accept a mediocre product, the wrong product in the wrong location with
the wrong specifications or pricing can cause a project to flop and expensively so.
Successful product launches now are a product of deep understanding about the
market based on customer needs and how much a customer trusts the developer.
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Customers are no longer willing to buy homes from any developer. Those with
a track record are finally getting rewarded with early stage sales driven by high
demand from customers. The developers who took customers for granted and did
not invest on customer service and product quality have been emphatically relegated
to the sidelines.
As a result of all these changes, many developers are facing an existential threat.
However, in the midst of all this change, there is a positive story that is developing.
Developers who have adapted to the new order are being rewarded by customers
with buoyant sales and price premiums. Finally customers have turned discerning,
punishing those who have taken them for granted while rewarding those who have
been customer focused.
The turn around in the market is visible from the perspective of the increases in new
inventory added. Developer confidence seems to be returning with launches in the
premium, premium plus and luxury segments.
Affordability has also increased substantially at 3.71 times annual income. This is
certainly a strong increase in purchasing power. This is perhaps one of those lucky
periods where customers with purchasing power have access to homes built by
genuine developers with a strong track record and governance standards.
The stressful situation for a large number of developers is real, but it is due to
customers moving en masse to quality developers and has little correlation with
other narratives doing the rounds. What was earlier a commodity market has clearly
transformed into a discerning consumer market in short span of time.
The stress can be explained by looking at the minimum number of projects that
it took to sell 10,000 homes over the last few years. In 2017, it took 40 projects
with the highest sales per project to cumulatively sell 10,000 homes. By 2019, that
number has dropped to 17 projects. This means in 2017, the projects with the
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The Gera Pune Residential Realty Report | Volume 9 | Issue 1 | Jul - Dec 2019
highest sales had an average sale of 250 homes in the year, however by 2019,
this average has increased to 588 homes. This trend continues to show up to sales
of 30,000 homes.
Essentially this means while some developers have grown their market share and
taken a larger share of the sales, what is left to sell is divided over more developers,
thereby leaving many developers in a bad shape.
The other impact is that discerning customers with a good credit rating have moved
to these top developers while customers with a weak credit history have no other
choice but to buy from other developers with an equally weak credit rating leading
to a magnified impact. So there is a weeding out not only at the supply end but also
at the demand end.
The sector seems poised at a cross road. We have seen an increase in supply that is
more than the demand. If the union budget brings in any incentives for purchasing
of homes through demand stimulation incentives, the industry could see a big
change for the positive for many more developers. If however this doesn’t happen,
the prolonged stress can lead to many more fatalities along the way leading to
further consolidation of the sector.
ROHIT GERA
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INVENTORY OVERVIEWProject launches accelerate by ~12% in the last 6 months. Gross inventory at a lifetime high.
FIG. 1 - INVENTORY OVERVIEWFIG.1 - INVENTORY OVERVIEW
Dec ‘12 Dec ‘13 Dec ‘14 Dec ‘15 Dec ‘16 Dec ‘17 Dec ‘18 Dec ‘19
350000
1656
50
2100
94 2404
32
3049
05
Tota
l Res
iden
tial U
nits
3258
43
3056
89
2928
42
300000
250000
200000
150000
1813
2335
2683
33123630
35573525
100000
50000
75.0
5%
4132
9
5533
7 6718
1
1045
65 1044
52
8690
0
7976
0
73.6
6%
72.0
6%
65.7
1%
67.9
4%
71.5
7%
3361
86
3490
8988
773.2
6%
72.7
6%
Sold Stock (% of total stock) No of Projects Total StockInventory for Sale (no of units)
Total inventory is at an all time high, however number of projects at 3490 is still 5%
below peak of 3733 in June 17 – indicates increase in the average size of project.
The inventory for sale has also risen after falling since June ’17 indicating supply
outstripping demand.
The total number of units under development had reached a peak level of 327,670
units in Jun ’17. Since then, on account of a reduction in new project launches,
the total inventory contracted for next 2 years and finally rebounded by ~3% to
301,731 units in Jun ’19 from 292,842 in Dec ’18. In Dec ’19 it grew further by
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The Gera Pune Residential Realty Report | Volume 9 | Issue 1 | Jul - Dec 2019
~12% to 336,186 units surpassing the peak in Jun ’17. This suggests that the
market has accelerated in the last six months in terms of construction activity. From
a peak inventory available for sale at 107,402 apartments in Jun ’16 the inventory
available for sale currently stands at 89,887 apartments. Inventory available for
sale grew by ~12% as well over Jun ’19 (when it was 80,062 units). However,
inventory levels are down by 16% to 89,887 units in Dec ‘19 from the Jun ‘16 peak.
Since the implementation of RERA, number of live projects in Pune has reduced from
the peak of 3,733 projects in Jun ’17 to 3,490 in Dec ’19. As of Dec ’19, the total
number of projects on hold (where work has commenced and presently stopped)
has reached 249 (the figure of 3,490 live projects excludes these 249 projects).
These 249 projects consist of 40,023 apartments and based on our prior data,
23,466 apartments are sold. This means approximately ~24,000 families are stuck
with incomplete projects at present.
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NEW LAUNCHESNew Launches at a 4-year high
At a city level, new launches have increased significantly by 37% (FIG 2). This
indicates optimism amongst the developer community. As highlighted above, there
is an overall increase of 37% in new launches (99,541 apartments launched in the
12 months ended Dec ’19 compared to the 72,503 launched in the 12 months
ended Dec ‘18). Due to this increase, new launches have hit a 48-month-high (it
was at 93,978 units in the 12 months ended 2016).
FIG. 2 - NEW UNITS LAUNCHED (Number of units)FIG. 2 - NEW UNITS LAUNCHED(Number of units)
124000
104000
84000
64000
44000
24000
119175
93978
59595
Jan ‘18 - Dec ’18 Jan ‘19 - Dec ’19Jan ‘17 - Dec ’17Jan ‘16 - Dec ’16Jan ‘15 - Dec ’15
72503
99541
On assessing the new launches of inventory by zone (for definition of zone see Page
34 of report), almost all zones with the exception of Zone 3 has seen an increase in
new supply. The maximum increase is seen in Zone 5 where new supply has dou-
bled in the 12 months ended Dec ’19 (3,258 apartments launched) compared to
12 months ended Dec ’18 (1,625 apartments launched) followed by Zone 6 where
new supply is up by 65% over the same period (30,772 units in 2019 compared to
18,608 units in 2018).
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The Gera Pune Residential Realty Report | Volume 9 | Issue 1 | Jul - Dec 2019
Looking at the data of new launches by segment, there is a significant increase
in new inventory launched in the Premium Category (For the definition of various
categories see TABLE 9 in Annexures). New inventory launched in the Premium
category grew by ~140% (from 8,767 units launched in 2018 to 21,011 units
launched in 2019). Launches in the Premium Plus and Luxury segment also witnessed
healthy growth rates of 44.5% and 31.9%. The other significant part is that launches
in the Budget segment declined by ~10%. While maximum inventory launched is
still in the Budget segment (31,324 units in 2019), clearly the demand has migrated
to more aspirational segments like the Value segment which also witnessed a good
growth rate of ~85%. As we shall see later, this finding is corroborated clearly in
demand data collected directly from potential customers who visited the CREDAI
PUNE exhibition in Dec ’19.
TABLE 1 - NEW STOCK ADDED IN ZONES (numbers in units)
Zone Jan ’16-Dec ’16 Jan ’17-Dec ’17 Jan ’18-Dec ’18 Jan ’19-Dec ’19 % change over Dec ‘18
1 12,693 7,581 9,979 11,843 19%
2 15,482 8,206 14,687 16,361 11%
3 16,294 10,965 13,303 12,742 -4%
4 16,615 11,802 14,301 24,565 72%
5 2,689 2,380 1,625 3,258 100%
6 30,205 18,661 18,608 30,772 65%
Overall 93,978 59,595 72,503 99,541 37%
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FIG. 3 - NEW UNITS LAUNCHED (Number of units)FIG. 3 - NEW UNITS LAUNCHED(Number of units)
120000
100000
80000
60000
40000
20000
Jan ‘18 - Dec ’18 Jan ‘19 - Dec ’19Jan ‘17 - Dec ’17Jan ‘16 - Dec ’16Jan ‘15 - Dec ’15
119175
93978
59595
72503
99541
26970 22072
12379 14988
27638
59032
45889
3018034916
31324
7175 628410504 15177
5100 3328 4391
20898
8767
21011
16970 10597
BudgetValuePremiumPremium PlusLuxury Overall
27632598
3841
The share in new launches has dropped to 31.47% in the budget category (from
48% in 2018) while in the Value it has increased to 28% (from 21% in 2018) and in
the Premium segment it has increased to 21% (from 12% in 2018). In the Premium
plus and Luxury segment, shares remain relatively stable in the last 2 years.
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The Gera Pune Residential Realty Report | Volume 9 | Issue 1 | Jul - Dec 2019
FIG. 4 - % SHARE OF NEW UNITS LAUNCHED BY SEGMENT
Jan '15 – Dec '15
Budget Value Premium Premium Plus Luxury
49.53%
22.63%
17.54%
6.02%
4.28%2.94% 4.36% 4.59% 4.41%
6.69% 6.45%
14.49%
15.25%18.06% 17.78%
12.09%
21.11%
23.49% 20.77% 20.67% 27.77%
48.83% 50.64%48.16%
31.47%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
Jan '16 – Dec '16 Jan '17 – Dec '17 Jan '18 – Dec '18 Jan '19 – Dec '19
FIG. 4 - % SHARE OF NEW UNITS LAUNCHED BY SEGMENT
FIG. 5 - NEW UNIT LAUNCHES JUL ‘19 - DEC ‘19
(Top 20 Micromarkets with the Fresh Supply Launched)
8000
6000
7000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
Deh
u &
Env
irons
Ala
ndi &
Env
irons
Man
jari
Bhos
ari &
Env
irons
Bale
wad
i/M
ahal
unge
Hin
jew
adi
Bhug
aon
& E
nviro
ns
Khar
adi
Sinh
agad
Roa
d &
Env
irons
Am
bega
on
Nar
he
Kanh
e &
Env
irons
Kond
hwa
& E
nviro
ns
Und
ri/M
oham
mad
wad
i
Dha
yari
Wag
holi
Bavd
han
Wak
ad
Dha
nori/
Lohe
gaon
Pim
ple
Saud
agar
& E
nviro
ns
4645
7316
3146
2746
2389
2327
2264
2105
1884
1774
1716
1657
1635
1607
1519
1287
1265
1215
1006
887
FIG. 5 - NEW UNIT LAUNCHES JUL '19- DEC '19(Top 20 Micromarkets with the Fresh Supply Launched)
Please refer to Annexures for the detailed geographical classification.
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DEMAND AND SUPPLY GAPS2BHK+ segment most undersupplied
As mentioned earlier, we have seen that there has been a significant increase in
new supply in the Premium segment. This is possibly due to migration of demand to
higher bedroom types.
Data comparing demand and supply gap across the last 2 years clearly indicates
where the supply is migrating in response to shifts in demand. In 2018, there was
clearly an oversupply in the 1BHK product segment and a clear undersupply in the
2 BHK segment. The market recognizing this mismatch launched 2 BHK inventory
leading to an oversupply in 2 BHK. The 2 BHK+ segment is now seeing undersupply
where demand is ~27% and supply is ~15%. Demand Data is collected annually
from the CREDAI PUNE exhibition.
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The Gera Pune Residential Realty Report | Volume 9 | Issue 1 | Jul - Dec 2019
FIG. 6 - DEMAND SUPPLY GAP (2018) (nos represent % of inventory)
1 BHK 1.5 BHK 2 BHK 2.5 BHK 3 BHK 3.5 BHK 4 BHK
FIG. 6 - DEMAND SUPPLY GAP (2018) (nos represent % of inventory)
OVERSUPPLY 54.1
6%
48.4
7%
3.72
%
0.98
%6.13
%
1.20
% 7.22
%8.
51%
0.22
%0.
58%
0.55
%1.
04%
Demand Supply
UNDERSUPPLY
50%
60%
40%
30%
20%
10%
28.0
1%
38.2
2%
FIG. 6 - DEMAND SUPPLY GAP (2019) (nos represent % of inventory)
1 BHK 1.5 BHK 2 BHK 2.5 BHK 3 BHK 3.5 BHK 4 BHK+
60%
FIG. 6 - DEMAND SUPPLY GAP (2019) (nos represent % of inventory)
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
20.8
0%
33.2
8%
OVERSUPPLY
46.8
8% 50.7
4%
4.00
%
2.33
%
5.44
%1.
08%
8.48
%
9.62
%
9.76
%0.
60% 4.64
%2.
35%
Demand Supply
OVERSUPPLY
UNDERSUPPLY in the 2BHK+ segment
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CYCLE ANALYSISAvailability ratio just above Dec ’13 low.
One way to look at the real estate cycle is through the lens of “replacement ratio”.
The replacement ratio is the new supply added divided by the number of apartments
sold. A replacement ratio of 1 indicates that demand and supply are in consonance
i.e. inventory being sold is being replaced by new inventory. When the ratio is more
than 1 – supply is being added faster than sales and when replacement ratio is less
than 1 – sales are faster than inventory addition. The current replacement ratio is 1.17
whereas the replacement ratio hit its peak at 1.455 in Jun ’15. This indicates that
supply is greater than demand i.e more units are being added than being taken out.
FIG. 7 - RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN PRICE & AVAILABILITY RATIO
5200
5100
5400
5300
5500
5000
4900
4800
4700
4600
4500
35%
40%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
Dec '13 Jun '14 Dec '14 Jun '15 Dec '15 Jun '16 Dec '16 Jun '17 Dec '17 Jun '18 Dec '18 Jun '19 Dec '19
26.3
4 %
27.0
1 %
4806
4909 5061
5075 5096
4984
4900
47864740
4685
45824555 4530
27.9
4 % 32
.32
%
34.2
9 %
33.2
1 %
32.0
6 %
30.5
2%
28.4
3 %
26.2
9%
27.2
4%
26.5
3%
26.7
4%
Avg Price psf Availability Ratio
FIG. 7 - RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN PRICE & AVAILABILITY RATIO
Availability Ratio rising after bottoming out
Pricecurve flattens
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The Gera Pune Residential Realty Report | Volume 9 | Issue 1 | Jul - Dec 2019
FIG. 8 - REPLACEMENT RATIO V/S PRICE
Dec ‘13 Jun ‘14 Dec ‘14 Jun ‘15 Dec ‘15 Jun ‘16 Dec ‘16 Jun ‘17 Dec ‘17 Jun ‘18 Dec ‘18 Jun ‘19 Dec ‘19
5200
5100
5000
4900
4800
4700
4600
4500
1.500
1.400
1.300
1.200
1.100
1.000
0.900
0.800
0.700
0.600
4806
1.0311.101
1.054
1.455
1.230
0.982 1.018
0.869
0.6870.784
0.984 0.952
1.1674909
5061
5075
5096
4984
4900
47864740
4685
45824555 4530
Replacement RatioAvg Price psf
FIG. 8 - REPLACEMENT RATIO V/S PRICE
Market in Consolidation mode – 17 Projects account for 10,000 units sold
The Market is clearly consolidating. In 2019, 17 projects were needed to sell 10,000
units from the total yearly offtake of 94,383 units. In 2017, 40 projects were needed
to sell 10,000 units (2017 yearly offtake was 76,149 units).
TABLE 2 - PROJECTS NEEDED TO SELL
Year 10,000 Units 20,000 Units 30,000 Units
2017 40 142 317
2018 27 107 256
2019 17 59 150
We looked at 20 of the top developers in Pune in terms of brand name and repute.
To ensure consistency and uniform comparison we maintained the same list of
developers over the past 5 years. We then calculated what was their share in the
yearly offtake of Pune. The data clearly indicates that over the past their share in sales
has gotten stronger especially post RERA. These developers have very successfully
managed to take away sales from other developers. Clearly, the reason why most
developers are in bad shape is because they are unable to compete effectively with
these top players. The Pune market consists of 3490 projects of which 2386 (68%)
projects are less than 100 units.
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FIG. 9 - SHARE IN YEARLY OFFTAKE OF THE TOP 20 DEVELOPERS
Jun '15
13%14%
15%16%
22%
Jun '16 Jun '17 Jun '18 Jun '19
4%
8%
12%
16%
20%
24%
FIG 9. SHARE IN YEARLY OFFTAKE OF THE TOP 20 DEVELOPERS
This trend of large projects being launched is evident if we look at the number of
projects with a size >500 units. This number has doubled since 2014.
FIG. 10 - NUMBER OF PROJECTS ( SIZE >500 UNITS)
20152014
73
91
103
112
123
148
2016 2017 2018 201920
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
FIG 10. NUMBER OF PROJECTS ( SIZE >500 UNITS)
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The Gera Pune Residential Realty Report | Volume 9 | Issue 1 | Jul - Dec 2019
PRICESPrices rise in core market (>= 100 units of inventory)
Overall market prices have broadly remained flat over the last 6 months after witnessing
an erosion of ~11% from peak levels seen in Dec ‘15. In Jun ’19 average market price
was ₹4,555 psf which has gone down to ₹4,530 psf (a reduction of 0.54%).
The average Pune market price is at a 6-year low. The average price in Dec ’13 was
₹4,806 psf. However, the overall market was also much smaller in Dec ’13 at 2,335
ongoing projects while in Dec ’19 there are 3,490 ongoing projects.
Looking at the price trend over the last 8 years, the Top 15 markets with the maximum
CAGR in price have been set forth in Table 3. The market that has seen the highest
CAGR is Akurdi & neighborhood at 8.40% followed closely by Erandwane.
FIG. 11 - SIX MONTHLY PRICE MOVEMENTSFIG. 10 - SIX MONTHLY PRICE MOVEMENTS
4500
4000
3500
3300
5000
5500
6%
8%
10%
4%
5.50
%6.46
%
8.29
%
6.07
%
6.01
%
7.66
%
2.16
%
0.28
%
0.41
%
-2.2
0% -1.6
9%
-2.3
3%
-0.9
7%
-1.1
7%
-2.2
1%
-0.5
8%
-0.5
4%
3.08
%
2%
0%
-2%
-4%
Jan
'11
- Ju
n '1
1
Jul '
11 -
Dec
'11
Jan
'12
- Ju
n '1
2
'Jan
'13
- Ju
n '1
3
'Jul '
12 -
Dec
'12
'Jul '
13 -
Dec
'13
'Jan
'14
- Ju
n '1
4
'Jul '
14 -
Dec
'14
'Jan
'15
- Ju
n '1
5
'Jul '
15 -
Dec
'15
'Jan
'16
- Ju
n '1
6
'Jul '
16 -
Dec
'16
'Jan
'17
- Ju
n '1
7
'Jul '
17 -
Dec
'17
'Jan
'18
- Ju
n '1
8
'Jul '
18 -
Dec
'18
Jul '
19 -
Dec
'19
'Jan
'19
- Ju
n '1
9
3475
3666
3970
4211
4464
4806 49
10
5061
5075
5096
4984
4900
4786
4740
4685
4582
4555
4530
6 month % change Average Price
19
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While the above chart constitutes all live projects ongoing in Pune (3,490 at last
count), 68% (2,386) of the projects in Pune are small with less than 100 units of
inventory being built.
We looked at the price history of only those projects which are >=100 units and
where the most sales are happening. The chart below maps out the trend in the
prices of this subsection of the market. In line with the overall market this subsection
peaked in Dec ’15 and proceeded to trend down. However, over the last 18 months
(Dec ’18 onwards), this subsection is seeing a good recovery in prices with a growth
in prices of ~2.6%. This is line with what we had predicted earlier i.e. the cycle has
bottomed out.
FIG. 12 - SIX MONTHLY PRICE MOVEMENTS (Prj Size >=100 units)FIG 13. SIX MONTHLY PRICE MOVEMENTS(Prj Size >=100 units)
4400
5600
4800
4200
4000
3800
3600
3400
3200
3000
5000
6%
8%
10%
4%
4.99
% 5.86
%
6.63
%
4.96
%
4.48
%
1.60
%
0.56
%
-0.2
5%
0.68
%
-0.7
1%
-0.9
7%
-0.9
7% -0.2
3%
-0.1
9%
0.04
% 1.66
%
0.93
%
2%
0%
-2%
-4%
Jan
'11
- Ju
n '1
1
Jul '
11 -
Dec
'11
Jan
'12
- Ju
n '1
2
'Jan
'13
- Ju
n '1
3
'Jul '
12 -
Dec
'12
'Jul '
13 -
Dec
'13
'Jan
'14
- Ju
n '1
4
'Jul '
14 -
Dec
'14
'Jan
'15
- Ju
n '1
5
'Jul '
15 -
Dec
'15
'Jan
'16
- Ju
n '1
6
'Jul '
16 -
Dec
'16
'Jan
'17
- Ju
n '1
7
'Jul '
17 -
Dec
'17
'Jan
'18
- Ju
n '1
8
'Jul '
18 -
Dec
'18
Jul '
19 -
Dec
'19
'Jan
'19
- Ju
n '1
9
3598
3777
3999
4264
4475
4676 47
51
4777
4765
4798
4764
4718
4672
4661
4652
4653 47
30
4774
% increase last 6 Months Price Per Sq.Ft ( SA)(Prj Size >=100 units)
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The Gera Pune Residential Realty Report | Volume 9 | Issue 1 | Jul - Dec 2019
AFFORDABILITYAffordability Index shows highest affordability compared to the past 8 years
We looked at the trends in affordability over time and data indicates that affordability
is at an all-time high as on Dec ’19 at 3.71x Annual Income (Monthly income is
assumed to be 2x EMI) making this the best time to buy a home. Over time interest
rates and prices (from Jun’15 onwards) have trended down, while incomes have
risen thereby increasing the affordability significantly.
FIG. 13 - AFFORDABILITY INDEX V/S PRICE
6000 5.50
5.00
4.50
4.00
3.50
3.00
5500
5000
4500
3500
4000
3000
FIG 14 - AFFORDABILITY INDEX V/S PRICE
4.8
3
4.8
9 5.0
2
5.0
6
5.0
9 5.3
0
5.2
6
5.2
7
5.1
3
5.0
0
4.7
5
4.7
0
4.5
1
3.7
1
3475 3666
3970 4
211 4
464
4806
4910
5061
5075
5096
4984
4900
4786
Jun'11
Dec'11
Jun'12
Dec'12
Jun'13
Dec'13
Jun'14
Dec'14
Jun'15
Dec'15
Jun'16
Dec'16
Jun'17
Dec'17
Jun'18
Dec'18
Jun'19
Dec'19
Affordability IndexPrice (in ₹ psf)
3.9
14.0
2
4.2
54.3
7
4530
4555
4582
4685
4740
We evaluated the salary needed to buy a home based on the then prices psf in
Jun ’11 considering interest rates at that time. We then increased this salary based
on the consumer price index and compared the new cost of the home with the
increased salary. In Jun ’11, the salary needed to buy a 1,000 sq. ft. home was 4.83
times. This peaked in Dec ’14 where the salary needed to buy the same 1,000 sq.ft.
21
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house at the increased salary and increased rates was 5.27 times. Since Dec ’14,
the consistent reduction in rates and the salary increments (linked to CPI) have led
to a situation where the house cost is 3.71 times the salary. This makes affordability
at an all time high. We are already seeing a price rise in the core (>= 100 units)
market and expect the affordability index to get worse in the future.
TABLE 3 - PRICE APPRECIATION IN MICROMARKETS OVER 8 YEARS
ClusterPrice in ₹
psf (Dec ‘19)Price in ₹
psf (Dec ‘11)8 Yr Price
CAGRAkurdi/Nigdi/Nigdi Pradhikaran 7,000 3,673 8.40%
Erandwane/Karve Road/Karvenagar/Kothrud
11,765 7,178 6.37%
Bopodi/Khadki/Dapodi/Kasarwadi/Phugewadi
6,171 3,775 6.34%
Purandar/Saswad/Wadki/Bhivari/Bopgaon
3,179 1,958 6.24%
Hadapsar 6,458 4,148 5.69%
City (Centre) 11,042 7,125 5.63%
Vishrantwadi/Kalas 5,599 3,621 5.60%
Pimpri/Kalewadi 5,567 3,622 5.52%
Wakad 5,752 3,814 5.27%
Baner 7,340 4,892 5.20%
Dehu/Gahunje/Kiwale/Ravet/Talawade/Tathawade/Punawale/Marunji/Sangawade/Mamurdi/Urse
4,495 3,011 5.14%
Market Yard/Lullanagar/Salisbury Park/Mukund Nagar/Gultekdi
11,948 8,033 5.09%
Navi Sangvi/Old Sangvi/Pimple Gurav/Pimple Nilakh/Pimple Saudagar/Rahatani
6,131 4,154 4.99%
Kharadi 6,055 4,131 4.90%
Anand Nagar/Dattawadi/Hingne/Sinhagad Road/Vadgaon Bk
6,341 4,327 4.89%
22
The Gera Pune Residential Realty Report | Volume 9 | Issue 1 | Jul - Dec 2019
10 SUB MARKETS WITH MAXIMUM PRICE CORRECTION (Over 24 months)
FIG. 14 - BOTTOM 10 MICROMARKETS WITH THE LOWEST PRICE
GAINS IN THE LAST 2 YEARSFIG. 15 - BOTTOM 10 MICROMARKETS WITH THE LOWEST PRICEGAINS IN THE LAST 2 YEARS
-8.00%
-6.00%
-4.00%
-2.00%
0.00%
All
Mar
kets
-4.4
3%
Dha
yari
-7.1
0%
Ara
nyes
hwar
& E
nviro
ns-6
.66%
Vim
an N
agar
/Yer
awad
a-6
.21%
Aun
dh-5
.41%
War
je-5
.17%
City
(Cen
tre)
-5.1
1%
Eran
dwan
e &
Env
irons
-4.8
9%
Man
jari
-4.2
7%
Nar
he-3
.86%
Furs
ungi
/Uru
li D
evac
hi-3
.27%
Aranyeshwar & EnvironsAranyeshwar/BalajiNagar/Bibvewadi/Dhankawadi/Padmavati/Sahakar Nagar/Parvati/Satara Road/Swargate
Erandwane & EnvironsErandwane/Karve Road/Karvenagar/Kothrud
23
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HOME SIZESFIG. 15 - AVERAGE SIZE OF UNITS LAUNCHED IN NEW PROJECTS
1200
400
600
200
800
1000
FIG. 16 - AVERAGE SIZE OF UNITS LAUNCHED IN NEW PROJECTS
H2 2014 H2 2015 H2 2016 H2 2017 H2 2018 H2 2019
981
837
756 735
859 863
Home sizes launched have increased to 863 sq. ft. after a period of decline.
24
The Gera Pune Residential Realty Report | Volume 9 | Issue 1 | Jul - Dec 2019
SALES OVERVIEWOfftake at a 4-year high. Increase of 15% over the last 12 months.
TABLE 4 - SALES OFFTAKE – 12 MONTHLY
Size Jan ‘17-Dec ‘17 Market Share Jan ‘18-Dec ‘18 Market Share Jan ‘19-Dec ‘19 Market Share
Overall 76,149 100% 81,907 100% 94,383 100%
< 600 19,670 26% 24,145 29% 25,690 27%
600-800 17,934 24% 17,527 21% 18,782 20%
801-1000 18,218 24% 19,981 24% 24,658 26%
1001-1200 11,570 15% 12,070 15% 14,431 15%
1201-1400 3,490 5% 2,968 4% 3,992 4%
1401-1600 2,331 3% 2,570 3% 3,454 4%
1601-1800 1,079 1% 1,029 1% 1,275 1%
1801-2000 529 1% 361 0% 496 1%
2000+ 1,328 2% 1,256 2% 1,605 2%
Assessment of sales offtake based on size of apartment shows that the overall
offtake has increased by ~15%, the share of the <600 sq. ft. segment in the offtake
has decreased from 29% in 2018 to 27% in 2019. Similarly, the share in offtake of
the 600-800 sq. ft. segment has also gone down from 24% in 2017 to now 20%.
This segment (<600 Sq. ft.) along with the 600 - 800 sq. ft. segment is primarily
targeted by the Pradhan Mantri Awaas Yojana. The share of the 801-1000 segment
has also increased to 26% in the last 12 months.
Overtime, the share of offtake in the <800 sq. ft. basket has remained consistent
has gone down from 50% (2017 & 2018) to now 47% in 2019.
25
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FIG. 16 - SALES BY SEGMENT (in number of units - yearly)FIG. 17 - SALES BY SEGMENT(Number of units)
44459 44142 45505
36421 36555 39320
23260
20122 20917
15545 16810 20920
17835
15009 16825 13654 12526
16801
9413 5917 7715 7724 12602
13248 4001
36253033
2805
3414 4094
98968
88815 93995
76149 81907
94383
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
Jan '14 to Dec '14 Jan '15 to Dec '15 Jan '16 to Dec '16 Jan '17 to Dec '17 Jan '18 to Dec'18 Jan '19 to Dec '19
BudgetValuePremiumPremium PlusLuxury Overall
As mentioned earlier, overall offtake has increased by 15% in the last 12 months.
The segment leading the growth in offtake is the Premium segment (For definition
of segments see TABLE 9 In Annexures) with an overall volume growth of 34% in the
last 12 months. The Budget + Value segment has displayed a growth of 32% in the
same period. There certainly appears a trend towards premiumization in the Pune
residential market. The Budget+Value segment occupy ~ 64% of the overall pie
in sales volume. However, this percentage has been gradually reducing over time.
In the 12 months ended Dec ’15, 72% of all units sold were in the Budget+Value
segment while in Dec’19 this share has come down to 64%
26
The Gera Pune Residential Realty Report | Volume 9 | Issue 1 | Jul - Dec 2019
INVENTORY OVERHANGOverall Inventory overhang increases to ~12 months
TABLE 5 - INVENTORY OVERHANG (in months)
6 Months Ended Dec ’15 Jun ’16 Dec ’16 Jun ’17 Dec ’17 Jun ’18 Dec ’18 Jun ’19 Dec ’19
Total 14.13 13.93 13.34 13.90 13.69 12.49 11.69 9.75 11.96
Budget 11.80 11.96 10.96 11.43 11.38 9.67 10.37 7.77 9.21
Value 14.33 13.46 13.59 14.73 14.31 14.73 13.00 11.63 13.42
Premium 18.40 17.49 17.22 14.97 15.43 12.50 12.41 10.59 13.01
Premium Plus 20.28 16.86 15.52 20.05 17.23 16.26 11.47 10.46 14.64
Luxury 13.64 19.65 20.09 24.28 22.15 20.59 17.48 16.43 15.33
The inventory overhang (based on the offtake rate for 6 months) has increased from
9.75 months in Jun ’19 to 11.96 months in Dec ’19. This is on account of the rapid
introduction of new inventory.
The budget segment continues to have the lowest inventory overhang of 9.2 months.
While inventory months has gone up for all segments, the major improvement is seen
in the Luxury segment where the inventory overhang has gone down to 15.33 months.
The table below sets forth a comparison between the Inventory Available for Sale
and the trailing 12 months offtake. The 12 months ended Dec’19 would be the first
time in the last 5 years where the offtake for last 12 months is significantly greater
than the entire inventory available for sale (it was almost at par in the 12 months
ended Dec ’18)
TABLE 6 - INVENTORY AVAILABLE FOR SALE V/S OFFTAKE
12 Months Ended Inventory Available for Sale 12 Months Offtake
Dec ‘15 104,565 88,815
Dec ‘16 104,452 93,995
Dec ‘17 86,900 76,149
Dec ‘18 79,760 81,907
Dec ‘19 89,887 94,383
27
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INVENTORY VALUE AND SQUARE FEETMarket Size expands by ~16% to ₹43,818 Crores
FIG. 17 - VALUE OF INVENTORY FOR SALE (in ₹Cr) & AREA (in Cr sq. ft. )
50000
45000
55000
60000
50000
35000
30000
25000
20000
10
12
8
6
4
2
Dec '13 Dec '14 Dec '15 Dec '16 Dec '17 Dec '18 Dec '19
5.49
7.08
9.1010.25
9.46
7.40
8.43
27400
39085
48526
55329
49214
37898
43818
Value (in Cr)
Valu
e (in
Cr)
Unsold Area (in Cr Sq. ft.)
Uns
old
Are
a (in
Cr
Sq. f
t.)
FIG. 18 - VALUE OF INVENTORY FOR SALE (in ₹ Cr) & AREA (in Cr sq. ft.)
Inventory available for sale has increased by ~14% over Dec ’18 to 8.43 Cr sq. ft.
while value of that inventory has increased to INR 43,818 Cr. The weighted average
price has increased by 1.5% over Dec ’18 ( Dec ’18 – 7.4cr sq. ft. inventory worth
37,898 Cr, Dec ’19 – 8.43cr sq. ft. unsold worth 43,818 Cr)
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The Gera Pune Residential Realty Report | Volume 9 | Issue 1 | Jul - Dec 2019
End stage and Ready Inventory for sale at a 5 ½ year low at 10,769 units
FIG. 18 - INVENTORY FOR SALE BY STAGES
70000
60000
50000
40000
30000
20000
10000
24789
29718
53418
17633
5709
39217498
6746 7345 7543 8692 7967 8849 8760 9005 9439 8064 84185382
51,7
25 55,6
84
66,6
83 67,6
14
91,2
81 104,
565
107,
402
104,
452
100,
012
86,9
00
79,5
46
79,7
60
80,0
62
89,8
87
2857133657
34878
4789946296
5476552413
51261 49156 50363
59468
15431
22757 22349
4507844691
39120
32300
21107 15589 1782219166 19650
4826
7857
4862 5918 5648 61203947 4098 4620
3691 334323512469
Jun'13 Dec'13 Jun'14 Dec'14 Jun'15 Dec'15 Jun'16 Dec'16 Jun'17 Dec'17 Jun'18 Dec'18 Jun'19 Dec'19
Inve
ntor
y fo
r sa
le (U
nits
)
FIG. 19 - INVENTORY FOR SALE BY STAGES
Total Inventory for SaleREADYENDMIDEARLY
43140
We have classified projects into 4 stages based on construction status i.e., Early, Mid,
End and Ready. End & Ready segments form 2.62% & 9.37% (~12% combined)
of inventory available respectively in Dec ’19. In Dec ‘18 combined they formed
~16% of the inventory available. In Dec ’18 the total inventory in this basket was
12,782 units while in Dec ‘19 this has decreased to 10,769 units. The inventory in
this basket is also at a 5 ½ year low (In Dec ’13 End stage and Ready inventory was
10,769 units).
Early stage Inventory forms ~22% of the total available units in Dec ’19.
As seen in Table 6, Dehu area and neighborhood consist of 11% of the total inventory
available for sale. The top 5 markets contain 1/3rd of the total inventory available
for sale.
29
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TABLE 7 - MICROMARKETS WITH THE HIGHEST INVENTORY FOR SALE (in no. of units)
Cluster Unsold Dec ‘19 % Share in Unsold Stock
Dehu/Gahunje/Kiwale/Ravet/Talawade/Tathawade/Punawale/Marunji/Sangawade/Mamurdi/Urse
10,230 11%
Bhosari Pradhikaran/Chikhali/Chikhali Pradhikaran/Moshi/Moshi Pradhikaran
6,361 7%
Alandi/Alandi Road/Bhosari/Bopkhel/Charholi/Dighi/Dudulgaon/Wadmukhwadi
5,412 6%
Kanhe/Somatne Phata/Talegaon/Wadgaon Maval/Kamshet
3,881 4%
Manjari 3,833 4%
Hinjewadi 3,734 4%
Wagholi 3,686 4%
Undri/Mohammadwadi 3,631 4%
Kondhwa/Pisoli/Yewalewadi 3,570 4%
Balewadi/Mahalunge 3,259 4%
Bhugaon/Bhugawade/Bhukum/Chande/Chandkhed/Ghotawade/Kasar Amboli/Kasarsai/Lavle/Maan/Nande/Paud/Pirangut/Rihe Road/Urawade
3,113 3%
Anand Nagar/Dattawadi/Hingne/Sinhagad Road/Vadgaon Bk
2,754 3%
Dhanori/Lohegaon 2,612 3%
Wakad 2,550 3%
Kharadi 2,457 3%
30
The Gera Pune Residential Realty Report | Volume 9 | Issue 1 | Jul - Dec 2019
BREAKUP OF THE MARKET BY JURISDICTION (PMRDA, PMC, PCMC)
FIG. 19 - AVERAGE PRICES (in ₹ psf) (extended boundaries of PMC)
Jan '15 – Dec '15
7186
5075 4984 4786
4582 4530
7039 7075
5650 5434
3905 3853 3706 3455 3482
4769 4797 4763
4799 4820
8000
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
Jan '16 – Dec '16 Jan '17 – Dec '17 Jan '18 – Dec '18 Jan '19 – Dec '19
PMC OverallPCMCPMRDA
FIG. 20 - AVERAGE PRICES (in ₹ Psf)(Extended boundaries of PMC)
TABLE 8 - GROSS INVENTORY (in no of units) – EXTENDED BOUNDARIES OF PMC
Dec ‘14 Dec ‘15 Dec ‘16 Dec ‘17 Dec ‘18 Dec ‘19
PMC 71,122 78,881 78,519 111,523 106,069 126,360
PMRDA 117,495 160,775 174,049 123,364 117,982 125,053
PCMC 50,784 63,557 70,745 68,313 62,644 78,795
Overall Inventory 240,433 304,905 325,843 305,689 292,842 336,186
31
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FIG. 20 - SHARE IN INVENTORY (with extended boundaries of PMC)
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
10%
53%
26% 24%36% 36%
38%
23%21%22%22%21%
53%
40% 40%
37%
PMRDA PMC PCMC
FIG. 22 - SHARE IN INVENTORY(with extended boundaries of PMC)
Jan '15 to Dec '15 Jan '16 to Dec '16 Jan '17 to Dec '17 Jan '18 to Dec '18 Jan '19 to Dec '19
32
The Gera Pune Residential Realty Report | Volume 9 | Issue 1 | Jul - Dec 2019
CONCLUSION
In our view, we are seeing clear signs of greenshoots in terms of a price rise in
projects in the core market (projects sized greater than 100 units)
While the overall market (all projects put together) is flat in terms of prices it is doing
excellent sales while launching new inventory. In our view the cycle turned in the
recent 6-12 months.
The offtake of the last 12 months is considerably greater than the current inventory
available for sale. We are also seeing a migration of demand from lower bedroom
types to higher bedroom types which is currently an under-served market.
This is one impact of affordability i.e. when your overall budget increases due to
rising income & falling interest rates, customers seek a higher-grade apartment. We
are seeing this trend playing out. Higher grade apartments are also associated with
developers with a strong brand name and excellent track record who customers
trust to deliver.
33
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ANNEXURESDehu & EnvironsDehu/Gahunje/Kiwale/Ravet/Talawade/
Tathawade/Punawale/Marunji/Sangawade/
Mamurdi/Urse
Alandi & EnvironsAlandi/AlandiRoad/Bhosari/Bopkhel/Charholi/
Dighi/Dudulgaon/Wadmukhwad
Bhosari & EnvironsBhosariPradhikaran/Chikhali/Chikhali
Pradhikaran/Moshi/Moshi Pradhikaran
Bhugaon & EnvironsBhugaon/Bhugawade/Bhukum/Chande/
Chandkhed/Ghotawade/KasarAmboli/Kasarsai/
Lavle/Maan/Nande/Paud/Pirangut/Rihe Road/
Urawade
Sinhagad Road & EnvironsAnandNagar/Dattawadi/Hingne/Sinhagad
Road/Vadgaon Bk
Kanhe & EnvironsKanhe/SomatnePhata/Talegaon/Wadgaon
Maval/Kamshet
Kondhwa & EnvironsKondhwa/Pisoli/Yewalewadi
Pimple Saudagar & EnvironsNavi Sangvi/Old Sangvi/Pimple Gurav/Pimple
Nilakh/Pimple Saudagar/Rahatani
TABLE 9 - PRICING CLASSIFICATION FOR EACH SEGMENT (in ₹ psf)
SEGMENT Jun ‘13 Dec ‘13 Jun ‘14 Dec ‘14 Jun ‘15 Dec ’15 Jun ‘16 Dec ‘16 Jun ‘17 Dec ‘17 Jun ‘18 Dec ‘18 Jun ‘19 Dec ‘19
Budget < 3,913 4,000 4,122 4,247 4,144 4,060 3,991 3,899 3,808 3,719 3,633 3,728 3,705 3,685
Value < 4,892 5,000 5,152 5,309 5,180 5,076 4,989 4,873 4,760 4,649 4,541 4,659 4,631 4,606
Premium < 5,870 6,000 6,182 6,370 6,216 6,091 5,987 5,848 5,712 5,579 5,449 5,591 5,558 5,527
Premium Plus <
7,338 7,500 7,728 7,963 7,770 7,613 7,484 7,310 7,140 6,974 6,811 6,989 6,947 6,908
Luxury > 7,338 7,500 7,728 7,963 7,770 7,613 7,484 7,310 7,140 6,974 6,811 6,989 6,947 6,908
34
The Gera Pune Residential Realty Report | Volume 9 | Issue 1 | Jul - Dec 2019
APPENDIXZone 1Bokari | Bolhai | Dhanori | Ghorpadi | Kalas | Keshav Nagar | Kesnand | Kharadi | Koregaon Bhima |
Lohegaon | Lanikand | Mundhwa | Nagar Road | Ranjan Gaon | Sanaswadi | Shikrapur | Shirsatwadi |
Talegaon | Dhamdhere | Viman Nagar | Vishrantwadi | Wadgaonsheri | Wagholi | Yerwada
Zone 2Bibvewadi | Fursungi | Gultekdi | Hadapsar | Kondhwa | Loni Kalbhor | Lulla Nagar | Manjari
| Market Yard | Undri | Mohammad Wadi | NIBM Road | Pisoli | Salisbury Park | Saswad | Uruli
Devachi | Uruli Kanchan | Wadki | Yavat | Yewalawadi
Zone 3Ambegaon | Dhankawadi | Dhayari | Donje | Katraj | Khadakwasla | Khed Shivapur | Kirkitwadi |
Kolhewadi | Nanded | Kondhawe Dhawade | Narhe | Shivane | Uttam Nagar | Warje
Zone 4Ambadvet | Aundh | Balewadi | Baner | Baner Balewadi Road | Baner Pashan Link Road | Baner Sus
Road | Bavdhan | Bhugaon | Bhugawade | Bhukum | Chandkhed | Ghotawade | Hinjewadi | Kasar
Amboli | Mahalunge | Marunji | Nande | Pashan | Paud Road | Pimple Gurav | Pimple Nilakh | Pimple
Saudagar | Pirangut | Punawale | Sus | Sus Road | Tathawade | Urawade | Wakad
Zone 5Anand Nagar | Bhosale Nagar | Boat Club Road | Camp | City | Dattawadi | Erandwane | FC Road
| Fatima Nagar | Ganeshkhind Road | Gokhale Nagar | Gultekdi | Hingne | JM Road | Kalyani
Nagar | Karve Nagar | Khadaki | Parvati | Koregaon Park | Kothrud | Mitra Mandal | Model Colony
| Mukund Nagar | Padmavati | Peth | Prabhat Road | SB Road | Sahkar Nagar | Satara Road |
Shivaji Nagar | Sinhagad Road | Tilak Road | Vadgaon BK | Wakadewadi | Wanowrie
Zone 6Akurdi | Alandi | Alandi Road | Alandi-Dehuroad | Alandi-Moshi Road | Bhosari | Bhosari Pradhikaran
| Bhopkel | Chakan | Charholi | Chikhali | Chikhali Pradhikaran | Chimbali | Chinchwad | Dange
Chowk | Dapodi | Dehugaon | Dighi | Dedulgaon | Kalewadi | Kasarwadi | Kamshet | Kanhe |
Kiwale | Mamurdi | Moshi | Moshi Pradhikaran | Navi Sangvi | Nigdi Pradhikaran | Phugewadi |
Pimpri | Punewala | Rahatani | Ravet | Sanghavi | Somatne Phata | Talawade | Talegaon | Thergaon
| Wadgaon Maval | Wadmukhwadi
35
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Areas in Extended boundaries of PMCAmbegaon | Anand Nagar | Aundh | Balewadi | Baner | Baner Pashan Link Road | Bavdhan |
Bibwewadi| Boat Club Road | City Centre | Dhankawadi | Dhanori | Dhayari | Erandwane | Fatima
Nagar | Ghorpadi | Gultekdi | Hadapsar | Hingne | Kalas | Kalyani Nagar | Karvenagar | Katraj |
Katraj | Kondhwa Road | Keshav Nagar | Kharadi | Kondhwa | Koregaon Park | Kothrud | Lohegaon
| Lullanagar | Market Yard | Mohammadwadi | Mundhwa | NIBM Road | Padmavati | Pashan |
Sahakar Nagar | Salisbury Park | Salunke Vihar | Satara Road | Shivaji Nagar and Neighborhoods
| Shivane | Sinhagad Road | Sus Road | Undri | Uttam Nagar | Vadgaon| Vadgaon Sheri | Viman
Nagar | Vishrantwadi| Wanowrie | Warje | Yerawada | Yewalewadi
Without Extended boundaries of PMCAnand Nagar | Aundh | Balewadi | Baner| Baner Pashan Link Road | Bavdhan | Bibwewadi |
Boat Club Road | City Centre | Dhankawadi | Dhanori | Erandwane | Fatima Nagar | Ghorpadi |
Gultekdi | Hadapsar | Hingne | Kalas | Kalyani Nagar | Karvenagar | Katraj | Katraj Kondhwa Road
| Kharadi | Kondhwa | Koregaon Park | Kothrud | Lullanagar | Market Yard | Mohammadwadi |
Mundhwa | NIBM Road | Padmavati | Pashan | Sahakar Nagar | Salisbury Park | Salunke Vihar |
Satara Road | Shivaji Nagar and Neighborhoods | Sinhagad Road | Sus Road | Vadgaon | Vadgaon
Sheri | Viman Nagar | Vishrantwadi | Wanowrie | Warje | Yerawada | Yewalewadi
Gera Developments Private Limited
200, Gera Plaza, Boat Club Road, Pune - 411001 | Call: +91 20 6680 7700
E-mail: [email protected] | www.gera.in