The Geostat Hypotheses;

In search of a high resolution foundation for Geostatistics, an interactive response to

operational user needs in a time of transition.

Lars H. Backerlars.backer@mdmapping.se

European Forum for GeoStatistics (EFGS)

1.

We need to get the Big Picture

2.

We need a concrete set of Projects

1. Making sense of things?2. Survive

Friend

INTERNET

Pro ContraSUBJECT

OBJECTSender Recipient

2: Axis of power

3: Axis of communication

1: Axis of transformationTraders

Guardians

Reference:Response

Reference:Subject

Reference:Recipient

Reference:Foe

Reference:Friend

Man environmental system (Critical systems only)Time

Formal reference system (GGIISS): Critical systems only

A D A D

Reality:

D. Use

C. Build

B. Design

A. Analyse

A D A D

Man

env

ironm

enta

l sys

tem

(“B

lack

Box

per

spec

tive

to a

ll sy

stem

s)”

3.

We need a Method

Friend

OBJECT

INTERSUBJECT

TIME

A.Analyse

D.Manage

B.Design

C.Produce

INTERNET

SCIENTIFIC PRACTICEPRACTICAL SCIENCE

Man environmental system (Critical systems only)

Man

en

viro

nm

enta

l sys

tem

(“B

lack

Bo

x p

ersp

ecti

ve t

o a

ll sy

stem

s)”

Formal reference system (GGIISS): Critical systems only

Reference

The World

Analysis, Synthesis, Action

4.

We need a shared Reference

1. Sociocultural system– Narrative (digital and/or analogue

documents)– Properties (statistics)– Cartographies (geodata)– Reference literature (reference library)

2. Economic system– Narrative (digital and/or analogue

documents) – Properties (statistics)– Cartographies (geodata)– Reference literature (reference library)

Man Environmental Systems

Society Environment

1. Man-made environment– Narrative (digital and/or analogue

documents)– Properties (statistics)– Cartographies (geodata)– Reference literature (reference library)

2. Natural environment– Narrative (digital and/or analogue

documents) – Properties (statistics)– Cartographies (geodata)– Reference literature (reference library)

(1) 10 000 km

(2) 1 000 km

(3) 100 km

(4) 10 km

(5) 1 km

(6) 100 m

Regionaldevelopment

Global

Local

Spaceship Earth

5.

We need a data Infrastructure

Double perspective : (1) ” Interacting wholes” and (2) ”Kits of Parts”

Dynamic Models

Narratives

Object models

Texts

References

Semantic modelling

Properties / Statistics

Map Features (points, lines and polygons)

Dynamics (objects and their relationships) over time

Vocabularies

Object / layer strategy for data Infrastructure

6.

We need to adapt our Statistics

http://www.ssb.no/en/software/pxmap/

DiscreteObjects

The problem with statistics?

Needed Given

2. Aggregations toAdm. areas

1. ContinuousPhenomena

Standard Grid infrastructure

Infrastructure of Spatial Data on Grids

7.

We need an infrastructure for Spatial Analysis

Why Grids?

A foundation for statistics ”liberated” from administrative areas with:

1. Full coverage (covers land and sea)2. Fixed, neutral system of small statistical areas (does

not change over time)3. Suitable for (cross disciplinary- cross border-) spatial

analysis4. Fully scalable for local and global use 5. Compliant with existing key technologies for data

capture6. Widely used both in Science and Practice

Warm ocean waters fuel hurricanesWarm ocean waters fuel hurricanes, and there was plenty of warm water for Hurricane Katrina to build up strength once she crossed over Florida and moved into the Gulf of Mexico. This image depicts a 3-day average of actual sea surface temperatures for the Caribbean Sea and the Atlantic Ocean, from August 25-27, 2005. Every area in yellow, orange or red represents 82 degrees Fahrenheit or above. The data came from the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMSR-E) instrument on NASA's Aqua Http://science.hq.nasa.gov/earth-sun/missions/satellite_17.htm

Spatial analysis

The ”Kit of parts” perspective:

• Required for both Ex Ante and Ex Post purposes!– Analysis, planning, implementation and evaluation of both

direct and indirrect action.

• We are good at: – spatial analysis of the envionment

• We are less good at:– spatial analysis of society

Outer delineation

Population statistics from the Stockholm region(2004)

Grids derived from coordinates:X,Y=1234567, 1234567 (1m grid.)(code: 12345671234567)X,Y=123456, 123456 (10m grid.)(code: 123456123456)X,Y=12345, 12345 (100m grid.)(code: 1234512345)X,Y=1234, 1234 (1km grid.)(code: 12341234)X,Y=123, 123 (10km grid.)(code: 123123)

.

.Quadtree for Grid=1000mQ1=500mQ2=250mQ3=125m

Inner differentiation 1

Day time population (2004)Night time population (2004)

Inner differentiation 2

Day- and night- time population (as continuous phenomena)

1624000 1625000 1626000 1627000 1628000 1629000 1630000 1631000 1632000

6577000

6578000

6579000

6580000

6581000

6582000

6583000

6584000

6585000

Conclusions

1. “Think global, act local”The Systems perspective: A view to both the whole and the parts!

2. “If you cannot describe it you cannot manage it”Integrated Modeling with Objects in Space and Time: An Integrated model!

3. “Proof of the apple is in the eating”Utility: The ultimate proof of the GSS is its function as a practical tool!

• To change the world

No new information required , only to improve what we have got!Keywords: cooperation, coordination, integration and harmonisation

Thank You!

Lars H. Backerlars.backer@mdmapping.se

European Forum for GeoStatistics (EFGS)

Population explosion? Resource constraints?

Climate Change?

Solvable Problems?

Not without GeoStatistics !