Danny Dorling, Sheffield, UK

Some statistical pictures of The rich world,

the local, and the global.

The Geography of Social Inequality and Health

Rich World Female Mortality Rates 1850-2000 (per year per 1000)

0.12

0.25

0.50

1.00

2.00

4.00

8.00

16.00

32.00

64.00

128.00

256.00

512.00

1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100Rich World Female Mortality Rate (per 1000 per year)

Y

Age

Source: Unpublished work with Jan Rigby (Sheffield)

Data: Human Mortality Database. University of California, Berkeley (USA), and Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research (Germany). Available at www.mortality.org or www.humanmortality.de(data downloaded summer 2004, all countries included here).

Rich World Male/Female Mortality ratios 1850-2000 (per year per cohort)

1.01.11.21.31.41.51.61.71.81.92.02.12.22.32.42.52.62.72.82.93.03.13.23.33.43.4

1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100Sex Ratio of Mortality, Rich World (male rate / female rate)

Age

Source: Unpublished work with Jan Rigby (Sheffield)

Data: Human Mortality Database. University of California, Berkeley (USA), and Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research (Germany). Available at www.mortality.org or www.humanmortality.de(data downloaded summer 2004, all countries included here).

USA Male/Female Mortality ratios 1900-2071 (per year per cohort)

Source (see below and from: Unpublished work with Jan Rigby (Sheffield)

Data: Human Mortality Database. University of California, Berkeley (USA), and Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research (Germany). Available at www.mortality.org or www.humanmortality.de(data downloaded summer 2004, data here from associated software).

1.01.11.21.31.41.51.61.71.81.92.02.12.22.32.42.52.62.72.82.93.03.13.23.33.4

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2071

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120Sex ratio of mortality, United States

Year

Age

Source: Life Tables for the United States Social Security Area 1900-2080 by Felicitie C. Bell et al.

England-Wales Male/Female Mortality ratios 1840-2050 (year/cohort)

Source: Unpublished work with Jan Rigby (Sheffield)

Data: Human Mortality Database. University of California, Berkeley (USA), and Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research (Germany). Available at www.mortality.org or www.humanmortality.de(data downloaded summer 2004, data from GAD added and latest census and MYE figures checked).

1.01.11.21.31.41.51.61.71.81.92.02.12.22.32.42.52.62.72.82.93.03.13.23.33.4

18401850186018701880189019001910192019301940195019601970198019902000201020202030 2040

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100Sex ratio of mortality, England and Wales

Age

sick/disabled

sick/disabled 2001 %1 - 234 - 56 - 78 - 12

sick/disabled change %-1.6 - 00.1 - 0.50.6 - 0.91 - 1.92 - 4.9

llti 16+

llti age 16+ 2001 %10 - 1314 - 1617 - 1920 - 2223 - 30

llti age 16+change %2 - 56789 - 11

The geography becomes more simple over time:

Figure 7.1 All Cause mortality ratios in Britain 1996-2000 All Cause mortality

1.1 1.1

1.2 1.2 1.1

1.4 1.1 1.2

1.1 1.2

1.0 1.1

1.1 1.0 1.1

1.1 1.1 1.1 0.9

1.2 1.1 1.2 1.0 1.1 1.0

1.2 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.0 1.0

1.0 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.9

1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.9

1.0 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.9 1.0 0.9

1.1 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.0

0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0

0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0 0.9 1.1 1.0 1.0

0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0

1.0 0.9 0.9

Source: Mortality records and population estimates, calculated for this book.

Lung Cancer

1.1 1.3

1.5 1.5 1.2

2.2 1.2 1.4

1.4 1.7

1.0 1.4

1.0 1.3 1.4

1.1 1.1 1.2 0.8

1.4 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.2

1.6 1.4 0.9 1.0 1.0 0.9

1.1 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8

1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 0.9 0.9 0.8

0.8 1.1 0.9 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.8

1.0 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.2 1.0

0.8 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.1

0.8 0.7 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.1 1.0

0.9 0.7 0.7 0.9 0.9

0.9 0.8 0.8

Trends in UK inequalities (LE & y)

Demand for the health industry

Supply for the health industry

Figure 3.1 A different view of the world - its children in 2001

26

3 17

6 34

2

19

20

U.S.A.

11

12

31

32

33

35

3627

28

29

37

14

18 2221

11India

Bangladesh

Pakistan

11

Nigeria

1

13

10

9

25

8

30

5

23

154

China

Egypt

11

Brazil

u.k

7

24

Ethiopia16

Each square in the map contains one million children aged under 18 as recorded as living by the United Nations in 2000. National borders are shown. Other than the UK and USA countriesnamed or numbered were surveyed and so are shaded below.

A global context – the world’s children

Source: Human Geography of the UK, London: Sage, February 2005

0% 10% 20% 30%

Population

Japan

Western Europe

North America

Eastern Europe

South America

Greater China

Near East

Far East

Greater India

Northern Africa

Southeastern Africa

Central Africa

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

Life

Exp

ecta

ncy

(yea

rs)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Not s

urvi

ng u

ntil

age

40 (%

)

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

Spen

ding

on

heal

th ($

/per

son/

year

)

50

60

70

80

90

100

60 70 80 90 100

Infants immunised against TB

Infa

nts

Imm

unise

d ag

ains

t mea

sles

(%) 69

83

68

80

82

94

77

93

89

99

95

99

81

4.0

11.6

2.1

4.6

1.20.6 1.5 0.0 0.51.0

0.41.0

JapanWestern EuropeEastern EuropeNear EastGreater IndiaSoutheastern AfricaCentral AfricaNorthern AfricaFar EastGreater ChinaSouth AmericaNorth America

HIV prevalence, ages 15-49 (millions 2003)

GDP US$ billions 2002

19.110.5

1.76.410.9

0.33.3

39.9

91.0

117.4

7.510.1

Japan

Western Europe

Eastern Europe

Near East

Greater India

Southeastern Africa

Central Africa

Northern Africa

Far East

Greater China

South America

North America

0.1

1.0

10.0

100.0

1,000.0

10,000.0

32 64 128

256

512

1024

2048

4096

8192

1638

4

3276

8

6553

6

1310

72

2621

44

5242

88

1048

576

per capita annual income (PPP$ 2000)pe

ople

(mlli

ons)

Japan

Western Europe

North America

Eastern Europe

South America

Greater China

Near East

Far East

Greater India

Northern Africa

Southeastern Africa

Central Africa

-100

-90

-80

-70

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

decl

ine

in in

fant

mor

talit

y ra

te 1

970

to 2

002

(%)

The Slope & Dispersion Index of Inequality –World Life Expectancy 1950-2005

20

22

24

26

28

30

32

34

36

38

40

1950

-195

5

1955

-196

0

1960

-196

5

1965

-197

0

1970

-197

5

1975

-198

0

1980

-198

5

1985

-199

0

1990

-199

5

1995

-200

0

2000

-200

5

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

4.50

5.00

5.50

6.00

1950

-195

5

1955

-196

0

1960

-196

5

1965

-197

0

1970

-197

5

1975

-198

0

1980

-198

5

1985

-199

0

1990

-199

5

1995

-200

0

2000

-200

5

0.1

1.0

10.0

1820

1830

1840

1850

1860

1870

1880

1890

1900

1910

1920

1930

1940

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

GDP

/cap

ita (w

orld

= 1

.0)

Central AfricaSoutheastern AfricaNorthern AfricaGreater IndiaFar EastNear EastGreater ChinaSouth AmericaEastern EuropeNorth AmericaWestern EuropeJapan

0.1

1.0

10.012

0013

0014

0015

0016

0017

0018

00

Inequality in relative incomes worldwide 1200-2000

This talk has draw on new data made available in recent years locally and globally. Most results are unpublished, but some are in “People and Places” and more analysis of the changing social makeup of one country is now published in “The Human Geography of the UK” (Sage, 2005); see www.shef.ac.uk/sasi for more information.

Locally, in the UK rates of poverty have risen as increased affluence has been accompanied by increased inequality (perhaps not most recently). World-wide, inequalities in income and health are widening. In rich nations the future looks most bleak for younger men who do not succeed – however success is measured. In poorer nations the future is most bleak for children.

Conclusion