THE GEOGRAPHY OF AGEING IN VICTORIA by Graeme Hugo Federation Fellow Professor of Geography and...
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THE GEOGRAPHY OF AGEING IN VICTORIA by Graeme Hugo Federation Fellow Professor of Geography and Director of the National Centre for Social Applications of GIS, The University of Adelaide Presentation to the Office of Senior Victorians, Melbourne 27 October 2004
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What is Ageing The individual level The population level - numerical growth of the growth as a proportion of the population
Transcript of THE GEOGRAPHY OF AGEING IN VICTORIA by Graeme Hugo Federation Fellow Professor of Geography and...
THE GEOGRAPHY OF AGEING IN VICTORIA
byGraeme Hugo
Federation FellowProfessor of Geography and Director of the National
Centre for Social Applications of GIS,The University of Adelaide
Presentation to the Office of Senior Victorians, Melbourne
27 October 2004
Outline of Presentation• Introduction
• How do populations age?
• Key aspects of demographic ageing in Australia
• Why does ageing vary in local areas?
• Patterns of ageing in metropolitan areas
• Patterns of ageing in non metropolitan areas
• The future of ageing in Victoria
• Some implications
• Conclusion
What is Ageing
The individual level
The population level
- numerical growth of the 65+- growth as a proportion of the population
Why is Australia’s Population Ageing?
• Fertility is low (TFR = 1.78)
• Mortality of the older population is decreasing- added more than 10 years since 1947- added more than 5 years to 50+ since 1971
• Immigration
Key Aspects of Ageing in Australia
• Doubling of numbers 65+ in next 25 years
• Doubling of proportion aged 65+
• Changes in characteristics
• Changes in spatial distribution
Projections of Australia’s Aged and Working Age Population
Number by Age
Year 15-64 65+65+ as %
15-642003 13,344,685 2,546,423 19.12011 14,532,900 3,155,600 21.72021 15,172,300 4,443,400 29.32031 15,348,100 5,741,000 37.4
Annual Growth Rate (%)2003-11 1.07 2.722011-21 0.43 3.482021-31 0.12 2.60
Annual Additions to Workforce(Access Economics)
Now: 170,900 in single year
2020-2030: 125,000 in entire decade
Influence of the Baby Boom GenerationAge Distribution of the Population
Source: ABS, 1999, 7
Qualitative Differences of CohortsOlder Baby Boomers
• Different attitudes to working at older ages• More healthy• More living by themselves• Different housing aspirations• More ethnically heterogeneous• Different health problems• Different living areas• Fewer children• Higher education• More mobile• Better off economically but more unequal• Higher expectations
Structural Ageing:Australia: Change by Age (5): 2004 – 2010; 2020 (Series B)
Source: Jackson 2004
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85+
Age
Perc
enta
ge C
hang
e 2004-2010 (21.3 m)2004-2020 (23.2 m)
Positive Economic Impacts
• Create demand for locally delivered and labour intensive care and services
• Local spending of transfers
• 55+ - 21% of population, 39% of wealth
Projected Population Size for Selected Age RangesSource: Costello, 2002, 5
Intergenerational Report
Projections of Commonwealth Demographic Spending (Percent of GDP)
Source: Costello, 2002, 59
Projection of Fiscal PressureSource: Costello, 2002
Australia: Age and Sex Structure of the Population, 1901-2001Source: Australian Censuses 1901-2001 and ABS 2000a
1901Males Females
1911 1921
1933 1947 1954
1961
1976 1981 1986
1991 1996
N u m ber o f P e rsons (,000 )
Males Females Males Females
Males Females Males Females Males Females
Males Females
Males Females Males Females Males Females
Males Females Males Females
N um ber o f P erson s (,0 00 )
N um ber o f P e rson s (,000 ) N um ber o f P e rson s (,0 00 ) N um b er o f P e rsons (,000 )
N um b er o f P e rsons (,000 )
N um ber of P e rsons (,000 ) N um ber o f P erson s (,000 ) N um ber o f P erson s (,0 00 )
N um be r o f P e rsons (,000 ) N um b er o f P e rsons (,000 ) N um b er o f P e rsons ( ,000 )
0 - 4
5 - 9
10 - 14
15 - 19
20 - 24
25 - 29
30 - 34
35 - 39
40 - 44
45 - 49
50 - 54
55 - 59
60 - 64
65 - 69
70 - 74
75+
0 - 4
5 - 9
10 - 14
15 - 19
20 - 24
25 - 29
30 - 34
35 - 39
40 - 44
45 - 49
50 - 54
55 - 59
60 - 64
65 - 69
70 - 74
75+
0 - 4
5 - 9
10 - 14
15 - 19
20 - 24
25 - 29
30 - 34
35 - 39
40 - 44
45 - 49
50 - 54
55 - 59
60 - 64
65 - 69
70 - 74
75+
0 - 4
5 - 9
10 - 14
15 - 19
20 - 24
25 - 29
30 - 34
35 - 39
40 - 44
45 - 49
50 - 54
55 - 59
60 - 64
65 - 69
70 - 74
75+
0 - 4
5 - 9
10 - 14
15 - 19
20 - 24
25 - 29
30 - 34
35 - 39
40 - 44
45 - 49
50 - 54
55 - 59
60 - 64
65 - 69
70 - 74
75+
0 - 4
5 - 9
10 - 14
15 - 19
20 - 24
25 - 29
30 - 34
35 - 39
40 - 44
45 - 49
50 - 54
55 - 59
60 - 64
65 - 69
70 - 74
75+
0 - 4
5 - 9
10 - 14
15 - 19
20 - 24
25 - 29
30 - 34
35 - 39
40 - 44
45 - 49
50 - 54
55 - 59
60 - 64
65 - 69
70 - 74
75+
0 - 4
5 - 9
10 - 14
15 - 19
20 - 24
25 - 29
30 - 34
35 - 39
40 - 44
45 - 49
50 - 54
55 - 59
60 - 64
65 - 69
70 - 74
75+
0 - 4
5 - 9
10 - 14
15 - 19
20 - 24
25 - 29
30 - 34
35 - 39
40 - 44
45 - 49
50 - 54
55 - 59
60 - 64
65 - 69
70 - 74
75+
0 - 4
5 - 9
10 - 14
15 - 19
20 - 24
25 - 29
30 - 34
35 - 39
40 - 44
45 - 49
50 - 54
55 - 59
60 - 64
65 - 69
70 - 74
75+
0 - 4
5 - 9
10 - 14
15 - 19
20 - 24
25 - 29
30 - 34
35 - 39
40 - 44
45 - 49
50 - 54
55 - 59
60 - 64
65 - 69
70 - 74
75+
0 - 4
5 - 9
10 - 14
15 - 19
20 - 24
25 - 29
30 - 34
35 - 39
40 - 44
45 - 49
50 - 54
55 - 59
60 - 64
65 - 69
70 - 74
75+
N um ber o f P e rson s (,0 00 )
1966Males Females
0 - 4
5 - 9
10 - 14
15 - 19
20 - 24
25 - 29
30 - 34
35 - 39
40 - 44
45 - 49
50 - 54
55 - 59
60 - 64
65 - 69
70 - 74
75+
0 - 4
5 - 9
10 - 14
15 - 19
20 - 24
25 - 29
30 - 34
35 - 39
40 - 44
45 - 49
50 - 54
55 - 59
60 - 64
65 - 69
70 - 74
75+
1971Males Females
0 - 4
5 - 9
10 - 14
15 - 19
20 - 24
25 - 29
30 - 34
35 - 39
40 - 44
45 - 49
50 - 54
55 - 59
60 - 64
65 - 69
70 - 74
75+
2001
N um ber o f P erso ns (,00 0 )
Males Females
N um be r o f P erson s (,000 )
800 600 400 200 0 200 400 600 800 800 600 400 200 0 200 400 600 800 800 600 400 200 0 200 400 600 800
800 600 400 200 0 200 400 600 800 800 600 400 200 0 200 400 600 800 800 600 400 200 0 200 400 600 800
600 400 200 0 200 400 600
800 600 400 200 0 200 400 600 800 800 600 400 200 0 200 400 600 800 800 600 400 200 0 200 400 600 800
800 600 400 200 0 200 400 600 800 800 600 400 200 0 200 400 600 800
800 600 400 200 0 200 400 600800 800 800 600 400 200 0 200 400 600
800 600 400 200 0 200 400 600 800
800 800
Note: Shaded areas represent the baby boom.
Victoria: Trends in the Growth of the Aged and Total Populations, 1947-2001Source: ABS Censuses
Census Total
Population
Population Aged 65+
Years
Percent Population Aged 65+
Years
Percent 65+ Population Aged over 75+ years
1947 2,054,701 181,941 8.9 35.1 1954 2,452,341 210,180 8.6 32.7 1961 2,930,113 252,341 8.6 32.9 1966 3,221,316 277,017 8.5 35.4 1971 3,502,351 294,961 8.4 36.4 1976 3,646,973 327,486 9.0 36.7 1981 3,832,443 374,256 9.8 37.1 1986 4,019,478 421,344 10.5 39.7 1991 4,232,914 468,529 11.1 41.1 1996 4,354,126 525,413 12.1 42.4 2001 4,612,097 585,592 12.7 46.8
Average Annual Growth Rate (%)
Intercensal Period
Total Population
Population 65+Years
Population 75+ years
1947-54 2.6 2.1 1.1 1954-61 2.6 2.6 2.7 1961-66 1.9 1.9 3.4 1966-71 1.7 1.3 1.9 1971-76 0.8 2.1 2.2 1976-81 1.0 2.7 2.9 1981-86 0.9 2.4 3.8 1986-91 1.0 2.1 2.9 1991-96 0.6 2.3 3.0 1996-2001 1.2 2.2 4.2
Victoria: Dependency Ratios, 1947 to 2001 Source: ABS Censuses
Dependency Ratios (Percent Population 15-64 yrs) 1947 1954 1966 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001
Youth (0-14 years) 35.1 43.3 47.0 43.0 38.5 34.4 33.0 31.9 30.6 Elderly (65+ years) 13.1 13.4 13.8 14.1 15.0 15.7 16.6 18.1 19.0
Total (0-14 and 65+ years) 48.2 56.8 60.8 57.1 53.5 50.1 49.5 50.0 49.6
Victoria: Age Sex Structure of Melton - East, SLA with lowest per cent aged 65+
Victoria: Age Sex Structure of Queenscliffe, SLA with greatest per cent aged 65+
8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85-89
90+
Age
Per cent
Males Females
8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85-89
90+
Age
Per cent
Males Females
Two Processes by which Communities’ Older Population
Grows or Declines
• Migration in or out
• Ageing in Place
Victoria: Population Aged 65+ by Section of State, 1991 and 2001 Source: ABS 1991 and 2001 Censuses
Population Aged 65+
1991 2001
Section of State Number Percent Number Percent
Major Urban 321,605 11.1 406,526 12.5 Other Urban 101,230 12.7 123,334 14.7 Bounded Locality 11,842 14.1 14,421 16.2 Rural Balance 35,145 7.4 41,299 9.8 Migratory 54 6.5 12 1.7
Victoria: Age-Sex Distribution of Population, 1996 and 2001Source: Australian Censuses 1996 and 2001
250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000
0-4
10-14
20-24
30-34
40-44
50-54
60-64
70-74
80-84
95+
Age
Gro
up
Population
1996 2001
Victoria: Growth in the Population in the Dependent Age Groups, Actual 1947 to 2001 and Projected 2006 to 2051
Source: ABS Censuses 1946 to 2001 and ABS Projections Series B
Victorian Statistical Divisions: Percent Share of Total and Aged Population, 2001 Source: ABS Census, 2001
Victorian Statistical Divisions Percent Share of State Population Difference (Ranked by size of population) Total Population Aged Population Total and Aged Share
Melbourne 72.39 68.94 +3.45 Barwon 5.21 5.95 -0.74 Goulburn 4.04 4.35 -0.31 Loddon 3.42 3.74 -0.36 Gippsland 3.27 3.70 -0.43 Central Highlands 2.92 3.10 -0.18 Western 2.08 2.42 -0.34 Ovens-Murray 2.04 2.02 +0.02 Mallee 1.89 2.22 -0.33 East Gippsland 1.67 2.09 -0.42 Wimmera 1.06 1.47 -0.41 Offshore and Migratory 0.02 0.00 +0.02
Victorian Statistical Divisions: Comparison of Average Annual Growth Rates in Total and Aged Populations, 1991-96, 1996-2001
Source: ABS Censuses, 1991-2001
Annual Growth Rates Victorian Statistical Divisions Total Population Total Population 65+ Population (Ranked by size of Population) 2001 1991-96 1996-2001 1991-96 1996-2001
Melbourne 3,338,704 0.7 1.3 2.4 2.3 Barwon 240,334 0.3 1.1 2.3 2.2 Goulburn 186,157 0.7 0.9 2.7 2.1 Loddon 157,898 0.7 1.0 1.9 1.9 Gippsland 150,596 -0.4 0.7 2.6 3.0 Central Highlands 134,890 0.3 0.8 1.6 1.7 Western 95,850 -0.1 -0.2 1.4 1.0 Ovens-Murray 93,943 0.4 0.5 2.1 2.7 Mallee 87,177 -0.1 0.4 1.9 1.5 East Gippsland 76,950 0.1 -0.1 2.6 2.4 Wimmera 48,903 -0.6 -0.5 1.5 0.7 Offshore and Migratory 695 - - - -
Total Victoria 4,612,097 0.6 1.2 2.3 2.2
Victoria: Population Aged 65+ by Statistical Division, Number and Percent 2001 and Growth 1996-2001
Source: ABS 1996 and 2001 Censuses
2001 Average Annual Growth Rate (%)
Statistical Division Number Percent 1996-2001
Melbourne 403,688 12.1 2.3 Barwon 34,864 14.5 2.2 Goulburn 25,445 13.7 2.1 Loddon 21,903 13.9 1.9 Gippsland 21,652 14.4 3.0 Central Highlands 18,143 13.5 1.7 Western 14,187 14.8 1.0 Ovens-Murray 11,854 12.6 2.7 Mallee 13,001 14.9 1.5 East Gippsland 12,241 15.9 2.4 Wimmera 8,582 17.5 0.7
Total Victoria* 585,592 12.7 2.2
* Includes Off Shore and Migratory
Victorian Statistical Divisions: Age Sex Pyramids, 1996 and 2001 Melbourne
Source: ABS 1996 and 2001 Census
1996 (shaded) and 2001
150000 100000 50000 0 50000 100000 150000
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85-89
90+
Age
Number
Males Females
Melbourne Statistical Division: Percent of Population Aged 65+Source: ABS 2001 Census
Melbourne Statistical Division: Total Population Aged 65+Source: ABS 2001 Census
Melbourne Statistical Division: Percent Growth Rate of Total Population Aged 65+, 1996-2001
Source: ABS 1996 and 2001 Census
Melbourne Statistical Division 2001 and 2011Source: ABS 2001 Census and DSE 2004 Projections
2001 (shaded) and 2011
200000 150000 100000 50000 0 50000 100000 150000 200000
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85+
Age
Number
Males Females
Victoria: Metropolitan Area, Percent Aged 75+, 1996-2001Source: ABS 2001 Census
Victorian Metropolitan SLAs: Summary of Trends in the SLA Growth in Aged 65+ and Total Population, 1996-2001
Source: ABS 1996 and 2001 Census
Average Annual Growth Rate
Percent Aged 65+
Classification Category No. of SLAs Percent Total Aged 65+ 1996 2001
1. Growth Total >5 and Growth Aged >5 7 9.3 9.6 11.4 4.8 5.2 2. Growth Total <5 and Growth Aged >5 13 17.3 1.8 6.6 6.6 8.4 3. Growth Total and Growth Aged <5 40 53.3 0.9 2.2 12.7 13.6 4. Growth Total and Loss Aged 12 16.0 0.7 -0.9 15.3 14.1 5. Loss Total and Loss Aged 1 1.3 -0.5 -0.1 16.7 17.1 6. Loss Total and Growth Aged <5 2 2.7 -0.5 3.7 9.8 12.1
Total SLAs 75 100.0
Melbourne Statistical Division: Age Sex Specific Net Migration Estimates, 1996-2001
Source: ABS 1996 and 2001 Census
-10000
-5000
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85+
Age
Net
mig
rant
s
Males
Females
Victoria Metropolitan and Non Metropolitan Age Sex Structure, 2001Source: ABS 2001 Census
Non Metropolitan (shaded) and Metropolitan
5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85-89
90+
Age
Per cent
Males Females
Victoria: Non Metropolitan Area Percent of Population Aged 65+, 2001
Source: ABS 2001 Census
Victoria: Non Metropolitan Area Percent of Population Aged 75+, 2001
Source: ABS 2001 Census
Victorian Non Metropolitan SLAs: Summary of Patterns of Distribution and Growth Aged and Total Population by SLA,
1996-2001 Source: ABS 1996 and 2001 Census
No. of
Distribution of Aged 65+
Distribution of Total
SLA Classification Category SLAs No. % No. %
65+ as Percent of
Total
1. Aged and Total Population Growth 69 125,262 68.9 907,064 71.3 13.8 2. Aged Growth and Total Loss 35 35,631 19.6 236,658 18.6 15.1 3. Aged Loss and Total Growth 3 7,144 3.9 46,788 3.7 15.3 4. Aged and Total Population Loss 15 13,860 7.6 82,204 6.5 16.9
Total SLAs 122 181,897 100.0 1,272,714 100.0 14.3
Barwon SD: Age Sex Specific Net Migration Estimates, 1996-2001 Source: ABS 1996 and 2001 Census
-2000
-1500
-1000
-500
0
500
1000
1500
5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85+
Age
Net
mig
rant
s
Males
Females
Western District SD: Age Sex Specific Net Migration Estimates, 1996-2001
Source: ABS 1996 and 2001 Census
-1200
-1000
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85+
Age
Net
mig
rant
s
Males
Females
Central Highlands SD: Age Sex Specific Net Migration Estimates, 1996-2001
Source: ABS 1996 and 2001 Census
-1000
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85+
Age
Net
mig
rant
s
Males
Females
The Future
• Projections are quite accurate
• Older people are the least mobile
• Good basis for Planning
Projections of Victorian PopulationSource: ABS 2001 Census and ABS Projections, Series B
Total Population 65+ 75+ No. % Growth No. % Growth No. % Growth
2001 4,612,097 585,592 273,775 2011 5,278,000 1.4 788,442 3.0 372,107 3.1 2021 5,654,800 0.7 1,079,723 3.2 489,704 2.8 2031 5,962,600 0.5 1,375,123 2.4 701,882 3.7
Victoria Metropolitan Area: Average Annual Growth Rate, Population Aged 65+, 2001-2011
Source: ABS 2001 Census and DSE 2004 Projections
Victoria Non Metropolitan Area: Average Annual Growth Rate, Population Aged 65+, 2001-2011
Source: ABS 2001 Census and DSE 2004 Projections
Victoria Metropolitan Area: Average Annual Growth Rate, Population Aged 65+, 2011-2021
Source: DSE 2004 Projections
Victoria Non Metropolitan Area: Average Annual Growth Rate, Population Aged 65+, 2011-2021
Source: DSE 2004 Projections
Local Implications
• Challenges
• Opportunities
Ageing at the Community Level• Changes quite predictable
• Change can be different to the State as a whole
• Change can be very rapid
• Older people relate more to local area than other groups
• Many of needs are met at the community level
Issues• Mismatch of location of services and
location of next generation of aged people.
• Mismatches in types of services and perceptions of future generations.
• Increased levels of inequality in next generation of older people
• Increased loneliness in next generation
• Inappropriateness of living contexts
Conclusion• Ageing in Australia is manageable
• There is a period of slow growth in demand
• Need to plan interventions now
• This needs to be at the community level as well as state and national levels.
