The Future Trends in Media, Technology and Business

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Q G WGBH Public Television Quality Workshop 1 The Future The Future Trends in Media, Technology and Business Trends in Media, Technology and Business Joe Igoe Joe Igoe VP/CTO WGBH VP/CTO WGBH

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The Future Trends in Media, Technology and Business. Joe Igoe VP/CTO WGBH. “ The knowledge of yourself will preserve you from vanity. ” --Miguel de Cervantes, Spanish novelist, poet and playwright. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Transcript of The Future Trends in Media, Technology and Business

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The FutureThe FutureTrends in Media, Technology and BusinessTrends in Media, Technology and Business

Joe IgoeJoe IgoeVP/CTO WGBHVP/CTO WGBH

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“The knowledge of yourself will preserve you from vanity.”

--Miguel de Cervantes, Spanish novelist, poet and playwright

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“In God we trust; the rest of you bring data.”

--Mark Baynes, vice president and global chief marketing officer at Kellogg, as quoted by the New York Times

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The FutureThe Future PhilosophyPhilosophy PredictionsPredictions ImplicationsImplications

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The FutureThe Future PhilosophyPhilosophy PredictionsPredictions ImplicationsImplications

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PhilosophyPhilosophy Factors to consider:Factors to consider:

PeoplePeoplePowerPower

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PhilosophyPhilosophy Factors to consider:Factors to consider:

PeoplePeoplePowerPower

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Philosophy: PeoplePhilosophy: People GeneticsGenetics

Genetic clock has stoppedGenetic clock has stoppedWe are essentially born the same as humans were We are essentially born the same as humans were

hundreds if not thousands of years agohundreds if not thousands of years agoSo what does this have to do with media, So what does this have to do with media,

technology and business?technology and business?

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Philosophy: PeoplePhilosophy: People Genetically baked-in needs and wants:Genetically baked-in needs and wants:

Ego / fameEgo / fameAttention / admirationAttention / admirationFamilyFamilyPowerPowerSafetySafetyCommunityCommunity

MusicMusicStorytellingStorytellingCuriosityCuriosityLoveLoveGrowth and Growth and achievement / statusachievement / status

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Philosophy: PeoplePhilosophy: People The fundamentals are The fundamentals are timelesstimeless

Twitter and Facebook are about community, ego, Twitter and Facebook are about community, ego, etc.etc.

There are many new ways to do the same old thingsThere are many new ways to do the same old thingsWe can look to the past to predict the futureWe can look to the past to predict the futureIn 100 years, people will be essentially the same as In 100 years, people will be essentially the same as

they are todaythey are todaySame needs and wants but many new ways to fulfill Same needs and wants but many new ways to fulfill

themthem

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Philosophy: PeoplePhilosophy: People Old Habits Die HardOld Habits Die Hard

The habits you have at 35 are slow to changeThe habits you have at 35 are slow to change80% of those over 45 watch TV live80% of those over 45 watch TV live56% for those under 4556% for those under 45

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PhilosophyPhilosophy Factors to consider:Factors to consider:

PeoplePeoplePowerPower

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Philosophy: Producer Philosophy: Producer PowerPower Economics: Economics: MonopolyMonopoly Power Power

If youIf you’’ve got what people want, you have powerve got what people want, you have powerContent is powerContent is power

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Philosophy: Consumer Philosophy: Consumer PowerPower Economics: Economics: MoneyMoney is Power is Power

Consumers willing to part with Consumers willing to part with money have powermoney have power

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Philosophy: PowerPhilosophy: Power In the long run, power moves to the ends of the In the long run, power moves to the ends of the

chain:chain:ProducersProducersConsumersConsumers

If you’re in the middle and you’re not adding If you’re in the middle and you’re not adding value, your role will diminish over timevalue, your role will diminish over time

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The FutureThe Future PhilosophyPhilosophy PredictionsPredictions ImplicationsImplications

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Predictions: OTA SpectrumPredictions: OTA Spectrum Bad situationBad situation FCC report forecasts shortage by ~2013FCC report forecasts shortage by ~2013 Nearly 500% increase in data usage per line Nearly 500% increase in data usage per line

in just over a yearin just over a year Clearwire users consume 7GB/monthClearwire users consume 7GB/month

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Predictions: OTA SpectrumPredictions: OTA Spectrum ““Shortage” is a function of priceShortage” is a function of price

Higher prices for spectrum will raise Higher prices for spectrum will raise prices for users (i.e. anyone with a prices for users (i.e. anyone with a smartphone, data card, etc.)smartphone, data card, etc.)

Some users will reduce usage or drop Some users will reduce usage or drop outout

New equilibrium achievedNew equilibrium achieved

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Predictions: OTA SpectrumPredictions: OTA Spectrum Many, many hurdles to reclaiming TV spectrumMany, many hurdles to reclaiming TV spectrum

Minimal chance of significant movement for several Minimal chance of significant movement for several yearsyears

Major sticking points around revenue splitsMajor sticking points around revenue splits Concerns regarding must-carry constitutionalityConcerns regarding must-carry constitutionality

Repacking TV stations is difficult and does very Repacking TV stations is difficult and does very littlelittle

DoD / Government slow to release spectrumDoD / Government slow to release spectrum

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Predictions: OTA SpectrumPredictions: OTA Spectrum Spectrum auctions will happen in a few yearsSpectrum auctions will happen in a few years Very conservative estimate of $100B revenueVery conservative estimate of $100B revenue

Some estimate Qualcomm’s national 6 MHz spectrum Some estimate Qualcomm’s national 6 MHz spectrum now worth $2Bnow worth $2B

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Predictions: OTA SpectrumPredictions: OTA Spectrum No No ““magicmagic”” technology fix technology fix

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Predictions: OTA SpectrumPredictions: OTA Spectrum

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Predictions: OTA SpectrumPredictions: OTA Spectrum End of End of newnew all-you-can-eat mobile data plans by 2012 all-you-can-eat mobile data plans by 2012 End of existing all-you-can-eat plans by 2014End of existing all-you-can-eat plans by 2014 Heavy promotion of home cell sites by all carriersHeavy promotion of home cell sites by all carriers More cell sites in generalMore cell sites in general

Better re-use of existing frequenciesBetter re-use of existing frequencies Possibility of tiered data servicesPossibility of tiered data services

Business class, economy classBusiness class, economy class Increased availability of mobile-optimized pagesIncreased availability of mobile-optimized pages

Smaller image files, lower resolution streamsSmaller image files, lower resolution streams

Much more use of WiFi to mobilesMuch more use of WiFi to mobiles

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Predictions: OTA SpectrumPredictions: OTA Spectrum White SpacesWhite Spaces

Unlicensed use of Unlicensed use of ““in-betweenin-between”” space in TV spectrum space in TV spectrum Not trackableNot trackable No consequencesNo consequences Open spectrum is a moving targetOpen spectrum is a moving target

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Predictions: OTA SpectrumPredictions: OTA Spectrum White SpacesWhite Spaces

How about some How about some unlicensed cars on unlicensed cars on the roads?the roads?

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Predictions: Predictions: WiredWired Bandwidth CrisisBandwidth Crisis There is no wired bandwidth crisisThere is no wired bandwidth crisis US is 22US is 22ndnd globally w/ average 3.8Mb/s globally w/ average 3.8Mb/s There are very, very few services that can There are very, very few services that can

provide YOU 3.8Mb/s in realityprovide YOU 3.8Mb/s in reality Many can opt for more bandwidth and don’tMany can opt for more bandwidth and don’t

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Predictions: Predictions: WiredWired Bandwidth CrisisBandwidth Crisis There are only economic hurdles here*There are only economic hurdles here*

*but we still need universal access including *but we still need universal access including lifeline servicelifeline service

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Predictions: 3D in the HomePredictions: 3D in the Home You will buy oneYou will buy one You will not use itYou will not use it

““Showroom featureShowroom feature”” LASIK: $2k to take glasses offLASIK: $2k to take glasses off 3DTV: $2k to put glasses back 3DTV: $2k to put glasses back

onon

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Predictions: 3D in the HomePredictions: 3D in the Home Serious issuesSerious issues

10-15% of population can’t handle / tolerate10-15% of population can’t handle / tolerate Kids eye spacing incompatibleKids eye spacing incompatible Production methodology differentProduction methodology different

Dual production expensiveDual production expensive Active glasses are expensiveActive glasses are expensive Passive glasses require new TV technology not ready Passive glasses require new TV technology not ready

yetyet

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Predictions: 3D in the HomePredictions: 3D in the Home Serious issuesSerious issues

ATSC not ready yetATSC not ready yet HDMI 1.4 late to the gameHDMI 1.4 late to the game

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Predictions: 3D in the HomePredictions: 3D in the Home CTAM/Nielsen survey showed those CTAM/Nielsen survey showed those ““very likely very likely

to buyto buy”” were actually LESS likely to buy after a were actually LESS likely to buy after a demodemo

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Predictions: 3D GamingPredictions: 3D Gaming Consider this:Consider this:

Xbox/PS/Wii 3D package deal $1,000Xbox/PS/Wii 3D package deal $1,000 Console, 42Console, 42”” 3D TV, 4 controllers, 4 3D TV, 4 controllers, 4

glasses, 4 3D gamesglasses, 4 3D games Gaming usage model is more focused Gaming usage model is more focused

activity than TV viewingactivity than TV viewing Still allows for interactions between Still allows for interactions between

players in-room or onlineplayers in-room or online

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Predictions: 3D GamingPredictions: 3D Gaming PC GamingPC Gaming

User position is relatively User position is relatively known and fixedknown and fixed Predictable distance, along Predictable distance, along

center axis, one usercenter axis, one user Can eliminate glasses todayCan eliminate glasses today

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Predictions: DistributionPredictions: Distribution Broadcast NetworksBroadcast Networks

Few-to-many deliveryFew-to-many delivery Wide variety, wide audience due to Wide variety, wide audience due to

few choicesfew choices No control over schedule (pre-DVR)No control over schedule (pre-DVR) ““Appointment TV”Appointment TV”

Cable channelsCable channels More-to-manyMore-to-many Narrower variety, narrower Narrower variety, narrower

audiencesaudiences Still limited control over scheduleStill limited control over schedule

InternetInternet Many to manyMany to many No packaging / linearization No packaging / linearization

required – item by item selectionrequired – item by item selection Complete control over timeComplete control over time Far lower barriers to entryFar lower barriers to entry Old monetization models breaking Old monetization models breaking

and evolvingand evolving

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Predictions: Distribution - Predictions: Distribution - FMFM FM will be around for 20+ yearsFM will be around for 20+ years

Essentially 100% of cars include FM tunerEssentially 100% of cars include FM tuner Cheap, reliableCheap, reliable All FM band is roughly equal to 3 TV frequencies but All FM band is roughly equal to 3 TV frequencies but

would require moving countless licenseeswould require moving countless licensees HD Radio is DOA and still rides above an FM analog HD Radio is DOA and still rides above an FM analog

carrier anywaycarrier anyway Mobile DTV could offer replacement, but momentum Mobile DTV could offer replacement, but momentum

behind FM is tremendousbehind FM is tremendous

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Predictions: Distribution – Predictions: Distribution – Mobile DTVMobile DTV Big in Japan!Big in Japan! You’ll consider it when your data plan gets You’ll consider it when your data plan gets

cappedcapped Carriers will be increasingly likely to order in Carriers will be increasingly likely to order in

handsets from manufacturershandsets from manufacturers Preserve bandwidth for lucrative data customersPreserve bandwidth for lucrative data customers

Qualcomm MediaFLO failed/failing due to lack Qualcomm MediaFLO failed/failing due to lack of free / premium model to build user habitsof free / premium model to build user habits

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Predictions: Distribution – Predictions: Distribution – OTTOTT Over-the-topOver-the-top

Google TV, Apple TV, Netflix, etc.Google TV, Apple TV, Netflix, etc. Success varies by serviceSuccess varies by service

Content is powerContent is power Success of platform based on relationships with content providersSuccess of platform based on relationships with content providers

Google – weaker relationships (but armed with cash)Google – weaker relationships (but armed with cash) Networks pulled plug on feeding Google TV almost immediatelyNetworks pulled plug on feeding Google TV almost immediately

Apple – strong relationships w/ contentApple – strong relationships w/ content Netflix – all about content relationshipsNetflix – all about content relationships

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Predictions: Distribution – Predictions: Distribution – OTTOTT Over-the-topOver-the-top

This isn’t going to make content freeThis isn’t going to make content free Good content is expensiveGood content is expensive Costs (and profits for some) need to be collectedCosts (and profits for some) need to be collected Producers will restrict content to channels that either Producers will restrict content to channels that either

provide direct payments or maintain advertising with provide direct payments or maintain advertising with programprogram

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Predictions: Distribution – Predictions: Distribution – OTTOTT Over-the-topOver-the-top

Technology is essentially trivialTechnology is essentially trivial Barriers to entry are getting lowerBarriers to entry are getting lower

Netflix and others have already opened content Netflix and others have already opened content owners to the ideaowners to the idea

Initial rates have been negotiatedInitial rates have been negotiated Much easier for competitors to follow alongMuch easier for competitors to follow along RedBox just announced they’re entering the RedBox just announced they’re entering the

marketmarket

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Predictions: Distribution – Predictions: Distribution – OTTOTT Over-the-topOver-the-top

Streaming services (legit and otherwise) are Streaming services (legit and otherwise) are numerousnumerous ~25% of streaming is YouTube~25% of streaming is YouTube ~25% is from other sites in the top 25~25% is from other sites in the top 25 ~50% is from sites in the #26-50 bracket~50% is from sites in the #26-50 bracket

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ProduceProducerr

StationStation//

AffiliatAffiliatee

NetworkNetwork ConsumConsumerer

Predictions: Distribution – Predictions: Distribution – OTTOTT

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ProduceProducerr

Cable Cable NetworNetwor

kk

StationStation//

AffiliatAffiliatee

Cable/Cable/Sat/Sat/

TelcoTelco

Syndicator Syndicator / /

DistributorDistributor

NetworkNetwork

OTT OTT AggregatAggregat

oror

WirelesWirelesss

CarrierCarrier

ConsumConsumerer

Predictions: Distribution – Predictions: Distribution – OTTOTT

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ProduceProducerr

Cable Cable NetworNetwor

kk

StationStation//

AffiliatAffiliatee

Cable/Cable/Sat/Sat/

TelcoTelco

Syndicator Syndicator / /

DistributorDistributor

NetworkNetwork

OTT OTT AggregatAggregat

oror

WirelesWirelesss

CarrierCarrier

ConsumConsumerer

Predictions: Distribution – Predictions: Distribution – OTTOTT

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ProduceProducerr

Cable Cable NetworNetwor

kk

StationStation//

AffiliatAffiliatee

Cable/Cable/Sat/Sat/

TelcoTelco

Syndicator Syndicator / /

DistributorDistributor

NetworkNetwork

OTT OTT AggregatAggregat

oror

WirelesWirelesss

CarrierCarrier

ConsumConsumerer

Predictions: Distribution – Predictions: Distribution – OTTOTT

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ProduceProducerr

Cable Cable NetworNetwor

kk

StationStation//

AffiliatAffiliatee

Cable/Cable/Sat/Sat/

TelcoTelco

Syndicator Syndicator / /

DistributorDistributor

NetworkNetwork

OTT OTT AggregatAggregat

oror

WirelesWirelesss

CarrierCarrier

ConsumConsumerer

Predictions: Distribution – Predictions: Distribution – OTTOTT

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Predictions: Distribution – Predictions: Distribution – OTTOTT

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Predictions: Distribution – Predictions: Distribution – OTTOTT Over-the-topOver-the-top

Will achieve mainstream success when it doesn’t look Will achieve mainstream success when it doesn’t look and feel like OTT, but like TVand feel like OTT, but like TV

But cable/telco companies have some monopoly But cable/telco companies have some monopoly power as wellpower as well Even with OTT, you need them to deliver dataEven with OTT, you need them to deliver data Expect a major shift in your bill toward a high data cost Expect a major shift in your bill toward a high data cost

and lower programming cost as programming and lower programming cost as programming alternatives emergealternatives emerge

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Predictions: Generation YPredictions: Generation Y Lots of hype about how Gen Y consumes mediaLots of hype about how Gen Y consumes media Despite some piercings, Gen Y are people like Despite some piercings, Gen Y are people like

the rest of usthe rest of us They will get marriedThey will get married They will have kidsThey will have kids They will be tiredThey will be tired They will sit in front of the TV with their kidsThey will sit in front of the TV with their kids

……and yes, they will have secondary devices as welland yes, they will have secondary devices as well

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Predictions: Generation YPredictions: Generation Y Gen Y parents will still be focused on their kids Gen Y parents will still be focused on their kids

just like every other generation in recent historyjust like every other generation in recent historyFamily time will still matterFamily time will still matter

Behavior in young adulthood is not a great Behavior in young adulthood is not a great predictor of later habitspredictor of later habits

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Predictions: The Living Predictions: The Living RoomRoom

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Predictions: The Living Predictions: The Living RoomRoom

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Predictions: The Living Predictions: The Living RoomRoom

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Predictions: The Living Predictions: The Living RoomRoom

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Predictions: The Living Predictions: The Living RoomRoom

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The FutureThe Future PhilosophyPhilosophy PredictionsPredictions ImplicationsImplications

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Implications: Relationship Implications: Relationship w/ Publicw/ Public

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Implications: Relationship Implications: Relationship w/ Publicw/ Public Consumer relationship evolving from being with Consumer relationship evolving from being with

network to being with individual contentnetwork to being with individual content DVRs can reduce awareness of content DVRs can reduce awareness of content

associations with networksassociations with networks OTT delivery will only accelerate this changeOTT delivery will only accelerate this change

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Implications: FundingImplications: Funding Declining and not getting better soon enoughDeclining and not getting better soon enough

““The United States already has one of the lowest levels The United States already has one of the lowest levels of federal funding of public media in the developed of federal funding of public media in the developed world -- at just $1.43 per capita; Canada spends $22 world -- at just $1.43 per capita; Canada spends $22 per capita; England spends $80; people in Finland and per capita; England spends $80; people in Finland and Denmark spend much more.Denmark spend much more.””

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Implications for Public Implications for Public MediaMedia Cable/satellite must-carry legislation for public Cable/satellite must-carry legislation for public

televisiontelevisionCritical to relinquishing broadcast TV spectrumCritical to relinquishing broadcast TV spectrumAlthough constitutionality has been and will be Although constitutionality has been and will be

challengedchallenged

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Implications for Public Implications for Public MediaMedia What worked isn’t working anymoreWhat worked isn’t working anymore

Be open to alternativesBe open to alternativesUse technology to lower production costs while Use technology to lower production costs while

maintaining qualitymaintaining qualityGo to the listeners and viewers on any platformGo to the listeners and viewers on any platform

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Implications for Public Implications for Public MediaMedia Continue to focus on producing good contentContinue to focus on producing good content

Great content is timelessGreat content is timelessStorytelling is timelessStorytelling is timelessTrusted reporting is timelessTrusted reporting is timeless

○ Content may be cheap, but integrity isn’tContent may be cheap, but integrity isn’tBe sure to express our value to consumersBe sure to express our value to consumers

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The FutureThe Future PhilosophyPhilosophy PredictionsPredictions ImplicationsImplications MiscellaneousMiscellaneous

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InterlaceInterlace Interlace is a 1930’s era hackInterlace is a 1930’s era hack CRT TVs are the only place where interlace CRT TVs are the only place where interlace

made any sensemade any sense TV will be less of our audience as we move onTV will be less of our audience as we move on Start preparing nowStart preparing now

Produce ProgressiveProduce ProgressiveDeliver Interlace if you mustDeliver Interlace if you must

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720p v. 1080i720p v. 1080i 720p: 1280x720x59.94 = 55.2 Mp/s720p: 1280x720x59.94 = 55.2 Mp/s 1080i: 1920x1080x29.97 = 62.1 Mp/s1080i: 1920x1080x29.97 = 62.1 Mp/s 720p is 88.9% of the pixel rate of 1080i without 720p is 88.9% of the pixel rate of 1080i without

the hassles and damage of interlacingthe hassles and damage of interlacingEasier to scaleEasier to scaleEasier to compressEasier to compressMore future-proofMore future-proof

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DisclaimersDisclaimers Difficult to predict anything with certainty beyond a year or twoDifficult to predict anything with certainty beyond a year or two Much of this is my opinion and nothing moreMuch of this is my opinion and nothing more Not necessarily the opinions of the QG, WGBH, PBS, etc….Not necessarily the opinions of the QG, WGBH, PBS, etc….

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DiscussionDiscussion

[email protected]/qualitygrouporg/qualitygroup

Joe IgoeCTO, WGBH

[email protected]