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The Future Okavango (TFO)Scientific support for sustainable land and resource

management in the Okavango basin

Funded by the Federal Ministry of Education and Research

Within the research strategy FONA (Research for Sustainability)

Under the call Sustainable Land Management

Speaker: Christian J Mesmer – University of Turkuwww.future-okavango.org

Funding period: 1.9.2010 – 31.8.2015

General aims of TFO

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The project aims at• an improvement of knowledge based land use

management within the Okavango catchment – involving the countries Angola, Botswana and Namibia

• the application of a trans-disciplinary approach by involving relevant stakeholders on different scales

• the analysis of ecosystem functions (ESF) and services (ESS) under scenarios of global change.

The Region on a map

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The Region – trends and threats

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The Region - characteristics

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• The Okavango is the only perennial river in Africa that flows eastward without reaching the ocean,

• … is one of the last near pristine aquatic ecosystems on the African continent, and indeed on earth and

• … is the only exploitable perennial river that flows through the territories of both Namibia and Botswana.

• The Delta is the largest freshwater swamp south of the equator

• … which inhabits an enormous biodiversity (e.g. 71 species of fish, 33 amphibs, 64 reptiles, 444 birds & 122 mammals)

• … and thus is of extraordinary importance for nature conservation – and tourism.

The Region - characteristics

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• The catchment covers an area of about 413.550 km2 and is home for 1.1 Mio. People.

• The length of the Okavango from its source in the Angola highlands to the mouth at the outer margin of the Delta in Botswana is 1100 km.

• In direction of the water flow the climate changes markedly (e.g. 1300 mm annual rainfall in Huambo, 450 mm in Maun)

• Thus, the Angola portion provides 95 % of the total water runoff.

The Region – change perspectives

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• A strong growth of human population with changing consumption patterns causes an expansion of land use.

• Climate change scenarios forecast an increase of water stress and extreme events for the catchment.

• The global demand for resources is most likely to severely affect formerly peripheral regions.

• The decline of the dry woodland (Miombo) belt due to degradation is regarded as one of the global tipping point regions regarding loss of biodiversity, impacts on climate and on biogeochemical cycles of other regions.

Partners involved

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Ministry of Agriculture,

Water and Forestry, Namibia

TUCSINNamibia Nature Foundation

ISCED Lubango

Cooperation between subprojects

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Spatial analyses: Multi-scale remote sensing & GIS-based landscape analyses

Stakeholder involvement, implementation, policy implicationsSP10

Capacity development

Coordination & Data integrationSPC

Ecological and economic valuation of ESS

SP8Analysis & design of social and economic mechanisms

User knowledge, valuation and regulation

SP6

Regional and transboundaryGovernance

SP7

Assessment of ESF/ESS related to...

Soils & cropsSP3

PlantsSP5

Micro-organisms

SP4Water

SP2 Climate

SP1

SP 9

1 2

3

9

5

6

7

8

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Key question

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How to measure and valuate all/the most important ecosystem services in the Okavango basin, to compare land-use strategies and to improve them in a way that raises value and

well-being for people ?

Scientific challenges

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• To measure and valuate competing ESS on a regional level.• To understand and describe interdependencies between the

services and land management.• To develop monetary and non-monetary valuation and

quantification tools to integrate ESS in market based mechanisms .

• To understand and model trade-offs and cumulative effects on larger spatial scales, to suggest solutions for larger landscapes.

• To find conditions and mechanisms to integrate the knowledge about ESS into land-use decisions.

Ecosystem services

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• Ecosystem services are defined as

„the benefits of nature to households, communities and economics“

→ Ecosystems are socially valuable

A more rigorous definition from the viewpoint of welfare measurement is

„Ecosystem services are components of nature, directly enjoyed, consumed, or used to yield human well-being“

(Boyd & Banzhaf 2006)

Ecosystem services - Examples

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Examples of ESS:• Provisioning of crops, meat & fish• Provisioning of cotton, timber & fuel wood• Provisioning of fresh water• Provisioning of medicinal plants• Provisioning of fresh air• Protection from flood-damage• Enabling of recreation• Providing spiritual value• …..

Ecosystem functions

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… are defined as

„the capacity of natural processes and components to provide goods and services that satisfy human needs, directly or indirectly“

(De Groot 1992)

→ ecosystems functions are a subset of ecological processes and ecosystem structures

ESF & ESS – an Example

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Solar radiationRain

Groundwater recharchenutrient losses

Evaporation

Transpiration

DecompositionNutrientcycling

Crop yield

Seeds, ploughing, protection, (fertilizer)

ESF & ESS – an Example

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Solar radiation Rain

Groundwater recharchenutrient losses

Evaporation

Transpiration

DecompositionNutrientcycling

Cropyield

Seeds, ploughing, protection, (fertilizer)

Solar radiation Rain

Groundwater recharchenutrient losses

Evaporation

Transpiration

DecompositionNutrientcycling

Cropyield

Seeds, ploughing, protection, (fertilizer)

Ecosystem service

Ecosystem function

Ecosystem subfunction

Proxy for Ecosystem service

Valuation of Ecosystem service

Crop production

Nutrient cyclingDecompositionWater cyclingPlant growth(Pollination)….

Potassium releaseTranspirationDenitrification….

a) Realised:Crop yieldCrop qualityb) Potential:Crop yield under optimized conditions

Market price minus costs for management (seeds, ploughing…)

ESF & ESS – an Example

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Solar radiation Rain

Groundwater recharchenutrient losses

Evaporation

Transpiration

DecompositionNutrientcycling

Cropyield

Seeds, ploughing, protection, (fertilizer)

Solar radiation Rain

Groundwater recharchenutrient losses

Evaporation

Transpiration

DecompositionNutrientcycling

Cropyield

Seeds, ploughing, protection, (fertilizer)

Specific tasks with TFO:• analyse the curent land-use distribution• measure realized crop yields• evaluate market prizes• evalute management costs• investigate potential crop yields

• under given natural conditions• regarding the sustainability of the system

• balance the Ecosystem service [ investigate Ecosystem services of alternative land-use types for same area]

Study site selection

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Photo : M.Pröpper

Study site selection

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1

2

3

4

1

2

3

4

Key regions indicated in the proposal (March 2010)

SP 08 Ecological and Economic Valuation of ESSPerception of project dynamics

ESsite 1LU

Key SES

ES: EcosystemLU: Land use SES: socio-ecological system ESS: Ecosystem Services (and functions)

ESsite 2LU

Key SES

ESsite 3LU

Key SES

ESsite 4LU

Key SES

affects

Water flow

Horizontal/ cylcing flow of ESS

Vertical flow of ESS

Catchment dynamics analysis

ESS

ESSESS

ESS

ESS

ESS

Boteti??

ESS

SP2, SP7SP8 (T5), … ?

SP2,SP3, SP4,SP5,SP6, SP7SP8 (T2,3,4), … ?

IntegrationScenarios, Synthesis valuation => informed management

SP1,SP9, SP10, SP8 (T1,6)

Methods (1) Task 1:Translating ESF and disciplinary approaches into ESS for

economic valuation

• Aim: Project-specific conceptual framework for organizing ecosystem functions and ecosystem services

• Classification depends on aims. Here: – Valuation– Integration of results at the catchment scale to inform the design of a management

plan or river regime plan.

• Possible criteria: – Public-private good (Distributional issues)– Spatial and temporal scale (management)– Joint production (valuation)– Complexity– Benefit dependence– Combination

• Methods: literature research, internal bilateral discussion or small workshops

Methods (2)• Task 2- Farming system analysis and field research

– Aim: Analysis of farming systems – Analysis based on concept of SES– Data: actual LU, labor and energy flows, prices

• Task 4: Bio-economic modeling and programming for shadow price detection – Aim: bio-econ comparison of land use options, production oriented valuation of

ESS– Data generation: User values of ESS in local currency– Data needed: Impacts of LU on ESS, alternative land uses

• Task 3- Willingness to pay analysis for ESS– Aim: assessment of values of tourists for Wildlife– Method: interviews– Data generated: in Botswana; levels of money potentially available for PES in

local currency

Methods (3) • Task 5 - Benefit sharing simulations of upstream services to

downstream communities– Aim: suggest possibilities for just redistribution of wealth derived from

ESS in the catchment– Data needed:

• Who (households/governments) affects or provide [which] ESS flow from upper to lower catchment to Whom

• What is the institutional context [local and regional]– Data generation: whatever is not be delivered by other SPs/projects

• Task 6 -Evaluation of land use options through synthesizing non-monetary and monetary valuation approaches (meta-analysis)– Conceptual and participatory tools– Data needed: inputs from ecological valuation, cultural valuation. Use of

own data. Work with SP7.

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Thank you!Tangi unene!