The Future of WorkClosing Keynote: ODAM 2005

November 6, 2006

Colin G. Drury

University at Buffalo: SUNY

CGD/IE496/06

Human Factors and the Future� The idea:

� If we know where the world is going, we know where work is going.

� If we know where the work is going, we know where human factors is going.

� Where World is going: Globalization, etc. as the driving force on work

� Global forces shaping business and society

� Impact on Work and workforce

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Factors Affecting Work� Demographics: Who we are

� Enterprise: from agriculture through manufacturing to service

� Globalization: Think globally, act locally

� Work Intensity: Overwork and Underwork

� Technology: Pervasive computing

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Demographics� USA population is rising, by 25% from 1990-2010,

therefore workforce increasing: labor force participation rate is 66%

� Participation rates are 60% for women, 76% for men, only 30% for people with disabilities

� All participation rates are rising� Age group 55-64 is the fastest growing � Two-thirds of the expected increase by 2050

comes from immigration � Workforce demographics trend is towards

increased diversity CGD/IE491/06

Manufacturing

Service

Agriculture

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Enterprise� Since 19th Century, less people in

agriculture but higher production

� Same trend in manufacturing in 20th Century

� Total workforce in manufacturing has remained relatively constant but fraction has been decreasing

� Service is main growth area. Note that service embedded in other sectors, e.g. IT workers

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Nature of Service� Typically, service is joint production of

offering by customer and worker� Customers demand high quality, custom

offerings, low price� Workforce more exposed to customers: e.g.

outsourcing aircraft maintenance� Increases skill and knowledge requirements

of workforce� Manufacturing looks more like service� Customers strongly influenced by recovery

from problemsCGD/IE491/06

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Globalization

� The Globalization of Production

� The Globalization of Customers

� The Globalization of Shareholder Value

� The Globalization of Human Concerns

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Business Changes� General heading of “Globalization”

� Globalization a combination of market and political forces shaping business and life

� Industry becomes spread across world regions as IT becomes ubiquitous

� Global capital markets force “creative destruction” of businesses with low shareholder value

� Means business must act and react rapidly to changing customer demands

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Beyond Business� Business changing from managerial

capitalism to shareholder capitalism

� Instant information, large shareholders force change

� National governments having to reduce costs and become more transparent to attract investment: The Golden Straightjacket (Friedman, 1999)

� Must adjust to decentralization, greater mobility, simultaneity, more alternatives

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Outsourcing� Globalization allows some work to be

performed far from its origin:� USPS address coding can be “offshore”� Who answers your airline query? (see

also automation!)� Airline maintenance done in countries

where it is cheaper� Business challenge in “over-developed”

world: > 80% have foreign competition� What are error implications? e.g. language

errors in aviation maintenance projectCGD/IE491/06

Work Intensity

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Work Intensity� Evidence (Schor, 1991) that hours of work

per year are increasing in the USA

� Increase in the hours worked per year� From 1805 to 1905 hours for men� From 1293 to 1526 for women

� Increase in people working very long weeks

� Increase in people working less than full time

� But people want about 40 hours: The Goldilocks Hypothesis

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(…..but they are all on incentive system…..)

Work Intensity: Examples� Toronto Transit Strike April 2005:

� April 2005 Strike averted. One issue was fines for drivers early or late at bus stops.

� Osaka Train Crash April 2005:� Drivers face financial penalties for lateness as

well as being forced into harsh and humiliating "training" programs; a few have been terminated without pay altogether. The union alleges at least one other driver committed suicide recently following management harassment and threats of job termination when he made an unscheduled stop for safety check.

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Work Intensity = SATO ??

NASA data Baseline Missions

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F/B/C Missions Success/Failure

Technology� Work is moving from the physical to the

cognitive (see Crossman etc, 1950s!)

� Malone (2004) predicts that computer and communication technologies have profoundly altered the nature of work

� Large but decentralized enterprises can remain agile, e.g. success of Linux

� Ubiquitous computing has changed most jobs profoundly

� But Old Jobs still around!CGD/IE491/06

Implications for Work: 1� Demographics: Increased workforce

diversity: gender, age, immigration, working hours. Must accommodate non-traditional workers into the mainstream rather than as special cases requiring accommodation

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Implications for Work: 2� Service Enterprise: Employees have

exposure to customers. Also important in Manufacturing with mass customization. Need to recognize the social skills inherent in the “mutual production of an offering” by employee and customer

� Globalization: Employees are expected to be available around the clock (email, cell phones), with shift work of white collar professions, as well manufacturing and distribution. Also potential for global standards rather than national standards

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Implications for Work: 3� Work Intensity: Longer hours of work for

some and part time work for others implies issues of workload and skill maintenance. As Quality and productivity demands increase, demands on the workforce will change the incidence of job stress. Unemployment, as jobs shift to other countries and regions, will require retraining in new skills and knowledge

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Implications for Work: 4� Technology: the socio-technical system is

changing dramatically. Implies fresh options for function allocation, and also a macro-ergonomic approach of integrating allocation of function into socio-technical systems design. Also technology is aiding seepage of work into leisure time via worldwide cellular telephones and email

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HF Implications� Greater diversity of workforce AND jobs� HF is matching Task Demands to Human

Capabilities: C > D for low error rates� Whatever the distributions of C and D, the

mean of C – D and its standard deviation:

c-d = c - d

2c-d = 2

c + 2d

If c = 100, d = 90, and 2c = 2

d = 10, then p(C-D<0) = 24%

If 2c = 15, then p(C-D<0) = 32% CGD/IE491/06

Need for HF� If Diversity of jobs and people increases,

then p(mismatch) increases, so that HF and IE generally are more important

� We need to be part of the solution, not part of the “squeeze more out of less” problem

� Two levels of response:� Professional Level: Where should the

profession be moving to stay ahead of the worldwide demand changes?

� Enterprise Level: What should my company do?

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