The Future of Waste Management“Matrix Reloaded”

Antonis Mavropoulos CEO D-Waste antonis.mavropoulos@d-waste.com

• Current SWM • 2050 forecast• Reshaping the future

Contents

1. Current waste management

MSW between 1,6-2 billion tons/year

Population & GDP/cap growth much more waste

Source: Veolia, Cyclope (2009) From waste to resource: an abstract of world waste survey 2009, Paris. [Available: http://www.uncrd.or.jp/env/spc/docs/plenary3/PS3-F-Veolia_Hierso-Print%20abstract.pdf]

• 70% to dumpsites & landfills• 19% recycled or recovered• 11% energy recovery• 40 million people industry – around 50% ISR• 0.46-0.66 billion tons (30%) of uncollected

MSW/year

Current SWM

Urbanization is 30% faster than sanitation

Urban Rural0

200

400

600

800

1000

12001089

370

813

450

Population gaining access to improved sanitation compared to population growth, urban and rural, worldwide, 1990-2008

Population growth 1990-2008 Population gaining access 1990-2008

Source: WHO & UNICEF (2010) Progress on Sanitation & Drinking Water: 2010 Update, France. Available: http://whqlibdoc.who.int/publications/2010/9789241563956_eng_full_text.pdf

How many people without waste management ?

What means “access to waste management services”?

Recent estimations : almost 52% of the global population

More than 3,6 billion in 2008 or everyone who lives with GNI less than 1200 -1600 $ / year

Source: www.d-waste.com

2. 2050 forecast

Population growth almost by 50% (baseline 2006), until 2050

Economy growth

Global GDP growth almost by 320%, until 2050

Cities growth 2007 - 2025

Source: Urban World: Mapping the Economic Power of Cities, Mc Kinsey, March 2011 67%

Rough estimates (BaU)

Source: D-waste “Waste Management for everyone”, update 1 (to be published on September))

GDP POPULATION gdp/cap MSW produced MSW produced /cap

0.00%

50.00%

100.00%

150.00%

200.00%

250.00%

300.00%

350.00%320.00%

41.34%

197.16%

138.01%

68.40%

Changes 2006-2050 with BaU scenario

Source: D-waste , “Waste Management for everyone”, update 1 (to be published on September)

2006 20500.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

4.50

1.80

4.28

0.27 0.46

MSW production 2006-2050

MSW produced (billion tons/year) MSW produced per capita (tons/year)

Uncertainties management

20.0% 60.0% 20.0%

3.789 4.444

3.03.23.43.63.84.04.24.44.64.85.05.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

Global MSW generation (billion tonnes) / 2050

Global MSW generation (billion tonnes) / 2050

Minimum 3.1913Maximum 5.0581Mean 4.1055Std Dev 0.3657Values 500

Source: D-waste , “Waste Management for everyone”, update 1 (to be published on September)

Urbanization – sanitation gap

• It is an elementary component of health protection

• It is a key – issue of environmental quality• It is a corner-stone of governance• It affects directly the daily life• It creates important social and economic

impacts

We can’t afford going like this…

WASTE MANAGEMENT AS A HUMAN RIGHT

Sound Waste Management is a human right. It is not a privilege. It must not be depended on personal income, race, gender or national discriminations. It must be easily accessible, affordable and suitable to local conditions. We need…

3. Rethinking urban SWM• Focus on Global Cities• Interface of their countries with global economy &

culture• Parts of the resource management global network• “Arrival” cities• They are Global Risk Areas due to their:

– High population density - pandemics– High integration and interconnection with the rest of the

world– High vulnerability to natural disasters

Systems far from equilibrium

• Drivers of spatial growth: randomness, physical constraints, natural advantage, comparative advantage

• Spatial growth is not predictable • There are physical & managerial limits • Growth can be simulated using epidemics or

diffusion models• Global Cities operate in three rather than two

dimensions• Infrastructure comes always late

We need new descriptions

• INPUT & OUTPUT• Complex systems,

out of equilibrium• Patchworks: the

kingdom of non-uniformity

• SWM as a Human Right is the canvas required to address urban SWM

ENGINEERING

LOGISTICS

RecyclingPrevention

WE CAN’T AFFORD WAITING FOR THE INFRASTRUCTURE – WE NEED CHANGE NOW. WE NEED TO MANAGE THE HUMAN NETWORK OF WASTE PRODUCERS AND GUARANTEE THE RIGHT TO SOUND WASTE MANAGEMENT FOR EVERYONE

We need behavioral change through better interaction, we need to develop local dynamics and neighborhood management, we need new interactive tools and practices and minimum standards

1. Adding to current systems modern technology and interconnectivity’s potential

2. Advancing current systems by stimulating behavioral change through human agents

3. Both ways combined

Stimulating Change

Welcome to the Interconnected World

A new landscape

North America Oceania / Australia

Europe Latin America / Carib.

Middle East Asia Africa0.00%

10.00%

20.00%

30.00%

40.00%

50.00%

60.00%

70.00%

80.00%

90.00%

78.67%

68.57%

61.40%

39.53%35.65%

26.21%

13.49%

Internet Penetration rates per region (percentage %)

China United States

India Japan Brazil Germany Russia United Kingdom

France Nigeria0

100

200

300

400

500

600

485

245

100 99.1875.98 65.13 59.7 51.44 45.26 43.98

Internet users in 2011 (in million)

• Photos and location service• Software to manage the data • Zoning• Algorithms to provide

conclusions• 100 days results

Mobile governance to improve SWM

Big Data systems: atlas.d-waste.com

Global SWM mapping

Open source cooperative design

Client request

Experts’ response

Product design

• Bottom – up approach: develop local material supply chains that contribute to recycling and recovery

• Adaptiveness: provide local solutions adapted to city’s patchwork based on market dynamics

• Interconnections: improve systemic behavior allowing information flow within their network

• Feedback: create a unique picture of city’s waste management

Stimulating behavioral change

ISR role is central in such an approach

• ISR are delivering recycling and waste management activities in order to fulfill their elementary human rights

• In that view, ISR are the key-link to introduce Waste Management as a Human Right

• In many cases the only immediately available option is to improve ISR contribution and performance

ISR as the key-link

• The current 3.5 bn people without elementary waste management will be definitely much more in the near future

• The BaU scenario will create huge health and environmental impacts that sooner or later will have global dimensions

• We need massive collaboration to overcome the technology and poverty barriers

• We need new business models to utilize the modern technologies and the increasing interconnectivity

Instead of conclusions

THE OTHER SIDE OF CITIESThe future is here…

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