The future of the auto service experience

of 57 /57
The Future of The Auto Service Experience 28 Oct 2013 | Tim Jones | Charlie Curson

description

This is an initial view that brings together a number of different perspectives on the future of car servicing being driven by potential changes within the sector, in adjacent arenas and beyond. Having gained some feedback and opinion from around the world on which of these shifts will have greatest impact, which will happen first and what is missing from this view we have added in some potential future scenarios for how the future shifts could change customer experiences and business models for dealers and workshops. Further comments on these thoughts are welcome and will be shared in a few weeks time As with all futureagenda projects, the outputs will be openly shared for all to use as sources of insight and stimulus for innovation, strategy challenge and wider engagement.

Transcript of The future of the auto service experience

Page 1: The future of the auto service experience

   The  Future  of  The  Auto  Service  Experience  28  Oct  2013  |  Tim  Jones  |  Charlie  Curson  

Page 2: The future of the auto service experience

Overview  This  presenta:on  shares  some  views  on  trends  that  could  impact    auto  servicing  over  the  next  few  years.  It  includes  trends,  feedback    from  across  the  sector  and  some  poten:al  scenarios  for  the  future  

Ini:al  Views  

Sector  Feedback  

Poten:al  Scenarios  

Page 3: The future of the auto service experience

Ini7al  Views  

Page 4: The future of the auto service experience

Star7ng  Point  An  ini:al  view  brought  together  a  number  of  different  perspec:ves    on  the  future  of  auto-­‐servicing  being  driven  by  poten:al  changes    within  the  sector,  in  adjacent  arenas  and  beyond.  This  follows.    

Sector  ShiOs  

Adjacent  Changes  

Macro  Trends  

Page 5: The future of the auto service experience

Shi>s  Within  The  Automo7ve  Industry  

Page 6: The future of the auto service experience

Intelligent  Highways  Mesh  networks  and  ubiquitous  mobile  connec:ons    deliver  automated  highways  to  improve  safety,    

increase  capacity  and  reduce  conges:on  

Page 7: The future of the auto service experience

Autonomous  Vehicles  Led  by  urban  delivery  pods  and  long  distance  trucks,    the  rise  of  automa:cally  driven  vehicles  leads  to  the    

reinven:on  of  the  travel  experience  around  infotainment  

Page 8: The future of the auto service experience

Digital  Showrooms  Vehicle  selec:on  and  purchase  takes  place  on  the  high  street    

and  in  shopping  malls  with  immersive  digital  experience    replacing  edge  of  town  physical  car  dealerships    

Page 9: The future of the auto service experience

Smart  Cars  Every  vehicle  has  thousands  of  sensor-­‐connected  computers    that  collec:ve  provide  the  intelligent  car  able  to  monitor    

itself,  its  environment  and  its  passengers    

Page 10: The future of the auto service experience

Declining  Cost  of  Ownership  Increased  compe::on,  system  efficiency  and  more  open  

pricing  leads  to  a  net  decline  in  the  ongoing  cost  of  ownership    of  a  vehicle  aOer  purchase  

Page 11: The future of the auto service experience

Inclusive  Service  Plans  Customers  increasingly  have  their  first  three  years  servicing    included  within  as  a  fixed  price  the  purchase  or  lease  cost  of    

their  vehicle  as  long  as  this  takes  place  at  a  dealer  

Page 12: The future of the auto service experience

Smaller  Cars  More  crowded  urban  environments  and  the  drive    

for  beVer  fuel  economy  reverse  the  trend  for  larger  cars    and,  especially  for  the  young  and  old,  smaller  is  beVer    

Page 13: The future of the auto service experience

Pervasive  Leasing  Driven  by  a  combina:on  of  sustainability,  business  model    and  convenience  factors,  leasing  becomes  the  predominant    

mode  of  new  vehicle  access  for  all  

Page 14: The future of the auto service experience

Declining  DIY  Greater  product  complexity  and  more  sophis:cated    diagnos:c  equipment  makes  customer  ‘do  it  yourself’  

servicing  almost  impossible  for  new  cars  

Page 15: The future of the auto service experience

Electric  Car  Services  The  growth  in  electric  vehicles  brings  with  it  the  advent  of  a    completely  new  service  experience  with  clean  environments,    

super  fast  diagnosis  and  plug  and  play  component  swap  

Page 16: The future of the auto service experience

Convenient  Fast  Fit  Na:onal  fast-­‐fit  tyre,  service  and  retail  chains  extend    their  drive  in  service  support  for  low  complexity,    

high  volume  wear  items  and  maintenance  ac:vi:es  

Page 17: The future of the auto service experience

Every  Car  is  A  Node  in  the  Network  With  the  introduc:on  of  embedded  SIM  cards  in  every  new  

 vehicle,  all  cars  are  tracked  and  the  advent  of  the    connected  car  experience  is  accelerated  

Page 18: The future of the auto service experience

Late  Customiza7on  Wider  personaliza:on  of  vehicles  is  enabled  by  the  shiO  of    

op:on-­‐fit  from  manufacturer  to  dealer  and  opens  the  doors  to    new  owner  makeovers  when  cars  are  resold  second  hand  

Page 19: The future of the auto service experience

Mobile  Servicing    Significant  growth  occurs  in  at-­‐home  or  at-­‐work  low  complexity    servicing  from  mobile  technicians  provided  via  roadside  assist  

companies,  independents  and  dealer  networks  alike    

Page 20: The future of the auto service experience

20,000  Mile  Service  Intervals  All  new  cars  can  go  for  20,000  miles  or  two  years  between    services  due  to  universally  adopted  long-­‐life  products,    

ubiquitous  diagnos:cs  and  greater  overall  vehicle  reliability  

Page 21: The future of the auto service experience

Predic7ve  Remote  Maintenance  F1  and  satellite  technology  is  applied  at  scale  enabling  car    manufacturers  to  con:nuously  monitor  vehicles,  diagnose    any  future  faults  in  advance  and  remotely  update  soOware    

Page 22: The future of the auto service experience

Drive  Thru  Servicing    With  pre-­‐arrival  diagnosis  the  norm,  drivers  opt  to  take  their    vehicles  to  loca:ons  able  to  do  a  full  service  in  30  minutes    

while  they  have  a  coffee,  relax  and  browse  the  net  

Page 23: The future of the auto service experience

Uninformed  Customers  As  efficiency  improves  and  automa:on  grows,  drivers  are    

ignorant  of  how  vehicles  work  and,  especially  in  fast  growing  economies,  unaware  of  anything  under  the  bonnet  

Page 24: The future of the auto service experience

Adjacent  Sector  Changes  That  Could  Have  Impact  

Page 25: The future of the auto service experience

Dynamic  Pricing  Real-­‐:me  consump:on  paVerns  and  data  seamlessly  drive    

the  marginal  value  of  products,  the  cost  of  access  for    adver:sing  and  the  underlying  cost  to  produce  

Page 26: The future of the auto service experience

Personalized  Localized    Informa:on  is  con:nuously  updated  to  reflect  current    

need  states  and  interests  of  the  individual  and    provided  for  seamless  cross-­‐pla`orm  consump:on  

Page 27: The future of the auto service experience

Retail  Showrooms  Physical  retail  outlets  diverge  in  ac:vity  between  tradi:onal      stores  and  showrooms  where  we  browse  and  research    

ahead  of  online  purchase  and  at-­‐home  delivery    

Page 28: The future of the auto service experience

Perfectly  Informed  Consumers  BeVer  informa:on  of  cost,  quality,  benefit  and  availability    enables  consumers  to  set  the  right  price  for  products  and    

services  and  buyers  pay  sellers  what  they  want    

Page 29: The future of the auto service experience

Everything  Niche    Niche  becomes  the  mainstream  as  the  cost  to  connect  those    with  common  interests  drops  to  zero  and  more  of  us  can    

pay  aVen:on  to  specialist,  tailored  long-­‐tail  needs  and  wants  

Page 30: The future of the auto service experience

Transparent  Pricing  Consumers,  supply  chains  and  regulators  share  informa:on    openly  and  force  manufacturers  and  retailers  to  be  more    

transparent  about  costs  and  accountable  for  errors  

Page 31: The future of the auto service experience

Less  Variety  The  future  is  one  of  reduced  choice  but  not  less  interest  as    bricks  and  mortar  retailers  provide  an  increasingly  edited    por`olio  of  products  through  ever  more  efficient  channels  

Page 32: The future of the auto service experience

Small  and  Distributed  Local  at  home  produc:on  matches  consump:on  with    3D  and  digital  scanning  and  prin:ng  providing  highly    efficient  and  good  quality  instant  physical  outputs  

Page 33: The future of the auto service experience

Bridging  The  Last  Mile  The  need  to  make  public  transport  as  flexible  as  private  

focuses  aVen:on  on  the  first  or  last  mile  between    mul:-­‐modal  hubs  and  the  home  /  work  des:na:on  

Page 34: The future of the auto service experience

Access  Not  Ownership  Rising  sustainability  impera:ves  and  increasing    cost  of  ownership  all  shiO  the  balance  from    

ownership  to  access  and  we  prefer  to  rent  than  buy    

Page 35: The future of the auto service experience

Redefining  Value  Consumers  want  to  par:cipate  in  value  crea:on,  shiOing  the    mindset  to  “made  with  me”  -­‐  Value  is  about  “shared  with  me”    

as  the  ownerless  economy  expands    

Page 36: The future of the auto service experience

Openly  Shared  Insight  Knowledge  is  nothing  if  not  freely  shared  as  value  crea:on  shiOs    

from  insight  ownership  to  insight  use  and  applica:on  while    branded  and  local  sources  of  content  compete  to  share  

Page 37: The future of the auto service experience

Mass  Customiza7on  Consumers’  expecta:ons  of  unique  and  bespoke  are  met    through  the  apparent  delivery  of  individual  combina:ons    

drawn  from  choreographed  choice  architectures  

Page 38: The future of the auto service experience

Macro  Trends  Impac7ng  Many  Sectors  

Page 39: The future of the auto service experience

Ubiquitous  Data  Access  We  will  finally  be  connected  everywhere  -­‐  everything  that    can  benefit  from  a  network  connec:on  will  have  one  and    

everyone  will  have  access  to  the  mobile  internet  

Page 40: The future of the auto service experience

Con7nuously  Earned  Trust  Inherited  and  historical  status  of  brands  and  icons  is  subsumed    

into  a  world  where  trust  goes  to  the  most  credible  source    in  the  moment  and  many  fight  for  authen:city  

Page 41: The future of the auto service experience

Ci7es  Not  Countries  Ci:es  are  more  important  than  countries  and  increasingly  set  the    standards  as  cultural  connec:ons  predominate  over  na:onal    iden::es  and  urban  markets  group  around  common  issues  

Page 42: The future of the auto service experience

Internet  of  Things  Every  device  and  consumable  product  has  an  integrated    unique  IP  address  that  enables  everything  to  become  an    

ac:ve  node  in  the  shared  network  

Page 43: The future of the auto service experience

Peer  to  Peer  Networks  Recommenda:on  and  advice  shiOs  from  experts  to  the  crowd    

as  peer  to  peer  networks  dominate  in  an  era  of  shiOing    trust  and  declining  respect  for  ins:tu:ons    

Page 44: The future of the auto service experience

Adapta7on  to  Climate  Change  As  the  :me  to  impact  of  renewable  alterna:ves  becomes  clear,    the  world  recognizes  a  period  of  increased  planetary  stress  and  we  seek  to  beVer  adapt  to  more  extreme  weather  paVerns  

Page 45: The future of the auto service experience

Almost  Zero  Waste  Escala:ng  waste  produc:on,  changing  aftudes  to  resources    alongside    new  approaches,  regula:on  and  business  models    

lead  many  to  aim  for  the  almost  zero  waste  society  

Page 46: The future of the auto service experience

Dense  Ci7es  As  urban  migra:on  increases,  efficient,  densely    populated  ci:es,  not  distributed  op:ons,  are  the    blueprints  for  more  sustainable  places  to  live    

Page 47: The future of the auto service experience

All  Digi7zed  By  2020  all  the  world’s  informa:on  is  digi:zed,  storage  is  nearly    free  and  the  volume  of  data  in  the  world  is  doubling  monthly  –    

we  can  all  access  the  21st  century  archive  

Page 48: The future of the auto service experience

Sector  Feedback  

Page 49: The future of the auto service experience

Gaining  Feedback  We  shared  the  ini:al  views  on  emerging  trends  for  feedback    

from  around  the  world  –  on  which  may  have    greatest  impact  ,  which  could  happen  first  and  why.  

Page 50: The future of the auto service experience

Wider  Views  Feedback  from  car  manufacturers,  dealerships  and  industry  

commentators  helped  to  priori:ze  the  trends  that  are  seen  to  be  most  likely  to  happen  first  and  those  that  could  have  greatest  impact  

Trends  most  likely  to  happen  1.  Predic:ve  Remote  Maintenance  2.  Uninformed  Customers  3.  20,000  Mile  Service  Intervals  4.  Declining  Cost  of  Ownership  5.  Access  Not  Ownership  6.  Transparent  Pricing  7.  Mobile  Servicing  8.  Smart  Cars  9.  Retail  Showrooms  10.  Autonomous  Vehicles  

Those  that  may  have  greatest  impact  1.  Transparent  Pricing  2.  Predic:ve  Remote  Maintenance  3.  Mobile  Servicing  4.  Retail  Showrooms  5.  Digital  Showrooms  6.  Uninformed  Customers  7.  Access  Not  Ownership  8.  Pervasive  Leasing  9.  Electric  Car  Services  10.  Inclusive  Service  Plans  

Page 51: The future of the auto service experience

Poten7al  Scenarios  

       

       

Page 52: The future of the auto service experience

The  2020  Perspec7ve  From  the  feedback,  it  is  clear  that,  sooner  or  later,  most  agree  that  technology  will  have  a  major  impact  on  the  service  experience  in  providing  a  more  connected,  efficient  and  simplified  landscape      

2020  -­‐  A  World  With:  Smart  cars  

Electric  car  services  

Predic:ve  remote  maintenance  

Transparent  pricing  

Smaller  cars  

20,000  mile  services  

Uninformed  Customers  

Pervasive  Leasing  

Inclusive  costs  

Everything  digi:zed    

Page 53: The future of the auto service experience

But,  there  seems  to  be  two  dis:nct  ways  in  which  the  future    experience  can  be  delivered  that  have  different  implica:ons  for  

customers  and  impacts  for  the  auto-­‐service  providers  

Small  and  Distributed  

Large  and  Concentrated  

Page 54: The future of the auto service experience

Small  and  Distributed  In  the  ‘Small  and  Distributed’  scenario,  we  can  see  a  world  in  which  customer’s  vehicles  are  maintained  away  from  the  retail  space  where  and  when  they  wish  with  maximum  convenience  and  minimum  hassle    

Small  and  Distributed  

Large  and  Concentrated  

Customer  Experience:  Local  and  personal  Mobile  servicing  Fast  fit  whenever  possible  Cross-­‐brand  support  Convenient  loca:ons  Value-­‐based  pricing  

Workshop  Impact:  More  flexible  approach  Less  frequent  foo`all  Just-­‐in-­‐:me  stock  access  Mul:-­‐skilled  but  fewer  staff  Decoupled  from  retail  Best  price  parts  and  labor      

Page 55: The future of the auto service experience

Large  and  Concentrated  In  the  ‘Large  and  Concentrated’  scenario,  we  can  see  a  world  in  which  customer’s  vehicles  are  maintained  away  from  the  retail  space  where  and  when  they  wish  with  maximum  convenience  and  minimum  hassle    

Customer  Experience:  Immersive  centers  Drive  thru  op:ons  Digital  showrooms  Mul:-­‐brand  access  City-­‐center  /  mall  loca:ons  Compe::ve  pricing  

Workshop  Impact:  Infotainment  experiences  Fast  priority  lanes  Smaller  forecourts  Mul:-­‐brand  rela:onships  Integrated  with  other  retail  Best  price  parts  and  labor      

    Large  and  Concentrated  

Page 56: The future of the auto service experience

Five  Ques7ons  For  the  sector,  these  both  raise  a  number  of  key  ques:ons  for  the    future  –  primarily  around  the  speed  of  change  but  also  impac:ng    

issues  such  as  control,  profitability  and  business  models  

With  all  the  data  openly  available,  how  quickly  can  the  customer  experience  be  reinvented?  

What  new  approaches  can  be  adopted  to  unlock  new  sources  of  value  and  differen:a:on?  

How  will  margins  be  impacted  by  more  transparent  pricing  and  greater  efficiency?  

Will  the  control  balance  between  manufacturers,  dealers  and  workshops  have  to  change?  

What  can  be  learnt  from  other  sectors  that  have  gone  through  similar  and  rapid  shiOs?  

Page 57: The future of the auto service experience

Future  Agenda  84  Brook  Street  London  W1K  5EH  +44  203  0088  141  futureagenda.org  :[email protected]  

The  world’s  leading  open  foresight  program