what if..

the future of sharing is not a “sharing paradigm”?

Catherine Van Holder @cvanholder - catherine@pantopicon.be

Stadslab2050 - 23 juni 2016

W E A R E A F O R E S I G H T & D E S I G N S T U D I O W E S E E F U T U R E S A S T O O L S T O R E F R A M E C H A L L E N G E S A N D E N R I C H T H E I M A G I N AT I O N S P A C E W E M A K E I N O R D E R T O S P A R K D E B AT E A N D C ATA LY S E C H A N G E

W E A R E PA N T O P I C O N

“

TODAY how should we approach and aim for a sustainable, p2p driven future

a quick dive no answersreframing “sharing” reframing “discussions”future appetisersinspirational examples

a tale of multiple futuresa tale of two futures

The sharing economy, as a feature of urban life, could evolve in promising or not-so-promising ways. “It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness. …”

April Rinne

WHAT IF

tomorrow looks like A, B, C, D, … ?

megatrends

wildcards

(weak) signals of change

WHAT IF?

DESTEP

demographicseconomicssocio-culturaltechnology

politicalenvironmental

sharing cities. sharing economy. p2p. collaborative consumption. networked society. gig economy. open access. open source. collaborative society. the commons. the on-demand economy.

“

decentralisation in a hierarchical organised world

it’s like uber, but for ________

cleaning. food. wellness. parking. moving. babysitting. education. social welfare. flowers….governance? education? welfare?

on-demand economy

www.airbnb.comimplications for governance?

http://www.refugees-welcome.net

Refugees Welcome

is there need for cooperative structure?

the commons in an urbanised neoliberal world

… managing urban areas has become one of the most

important development challenges of the 21st

century. Our success or failure in building

sustainable cities will be a major factor in the success

of the post-2015 UN development agenda

“

John Wilmoth Director of UN DESA’s Population Division

urbanisation

Urban Commons in 2040 - Silke Helfrich

seoul, sharing city. the city as a collective commons

Sharing Cities - Duncan McLaren. Julian Agyeman

lending libraries for tools, repair & books in apartmentsopening city parking lots and buildings tot the public off-hours

supporting sharing economy startups like Woozoo - transforms older homes into shared housing has banned uber, and is instead working to develop its own open source cab-hailing app

The Atlantic - Gillian B. White

the 1%

“the condition of man.. is a condition of war of everyone

against everyone”

“Thomas Hobbs

17th Century Philopher

human nature

“Throughout life we are working with the two poles of autonomy

and togetherness. Both are necessary and constitute our

longings. We want to belong and to merge with other. We also want our own freedom and

identity. These tensions are never fully resolved. In a state of mental well being we hold these poles in

a dynamic balance.”

“

Daniel Siegel 21th Century NeuroBiologist

“Their organisations’ structures are not always easily

understandable”

“Matt Stokes

Nesta

“Their organisations’ structures are not always easily

understandable”

“Matt Stokes

Nesta

Organisations like these are not only more democratic and inclusive. They are networks rather than traditional bureaucracies, cultivating lateral rather than vertical links, and many of them are decentralised.

They are agile and responsive to change – changing structures to respond to growth and scaling, regularly changing boards and councils, bringing in new people and constantly pushing back at forces of re-centralisation.

circularityin a linear structured world

it’s like ‘tournevie’ but for_______

consumer goods. light. ….

it’s nothing but a society in transition, stupid

Humanity is at a critical juncture. What is needed is as straightforward as it is profound. Our global civilization needs a new operating system, and fast. (…) The very same ways of thinking that brought about the industrial age and made possible many of our advancements, have also fueled the myriad crises that are now converging upon us.

//

Bernard Lietaer

DESTEP demographic - multi-cultural society. ageing. economic — global. neoliberal. freelance economy. automation of jobs. socio-cultural - individualisation. technological — network society. automation. blockchain. IOT. life sciences. ecological — circularity. political — globalisation. urbanisation.

If we are suffering from the crash of our old institutions, we are also pioneering a new civilization. That means living with high uncertainty. It means expecting disequilibria and upset. And it means no one has the full and final truth about where we are going - or even where we should go. 

//

Alvin Tofler

the holy matrimony of sustainability

“valuable concept” ecologicaleconomical social

how to design for sustainable futures

social welfare : freelance economy. ageing society. global mobility

earth centricity : circularity. biomimicry. …

wellbeing : autonomy + connection. safety + exploration

blockchain.

“One important takeaway for us has been that the blockchain is a lot more complicated than most people make it out to be.The blockchain is not a simple solution that will fix everything that is wrong with today’s credentials. But it does offer some possibilities for improving the system we have today–and that’s what we are excited to explore.”MIT Media Lab

A database that contains all the transactions ever executed in the network. It consists of a permanent, distributed, digital ledger, resistant to tampering and carried out collectively by all the nodes of the system. The blockchain technology potentially allows individuals and communities to redesign their interactions in politics, business and society at large, with an unprecedented process of disintermediation on large scale, based on automated and trustless transactions

> “shift from trusting people to trusting math”

f inancial t ransact ions, social t ransact ions,…

register . . aka book keeping

bye bye not ary

decentralisation in a central organised world

a-labs - innovation city of antwerp

Because Crowley likes to take long, hot showers in the morning, he used to run out of hot water. But recently, a resident in his apartment building installed an industrial-grade hot water heater and is now selling hot water to other tenants to help with the cost. A chip in Crowley’s hot water faucet automatically dispenses bitcoins directly to a chip in the hot water heater. As Crowley turns the shower knob clockwise, more bitcoins are dispensed and more hot water streams from the shower head.

A Typical Day in a Blockchain-Enabled World Circa 2030

what if?

could this be a “valuable concept” ? ecological. economical . social

what would this mean in terms of governance, organisational principles? which socio-cultural effects could this have? (and on a completely other note: how would the whole airbnb social housing debate look from such a perspective?)

mobility as a service

what if?

EDITORIAL

A Ride Into A Hybrid Future

by Catherine Van Holder

Societies in the developed world today have access to two ways of transportation, private and public, which exist alongside each other. We believe the combination of Driverless Cars, Internet of Things, the Digital Wallet Revolution and the Sharing Economy points in the direction of a new type of hybrid mobility system. One without clear boundaries between private and public transport, at least from a functional design point of view.

what would this mean in terms of public transport? what this be the end of insurance or just a transformation? would this imply custom taxation? basic free mobility like basic free electricity? do we need a centralised platform structure? or a cooperation?

what implications does this have for local carsharing initiatives? how to organise this glocal reality in the most sustainable way?

governance 2.0 servicesfor a global world

“The blockchain is a disruptive technology with a tremendous transformative potential for our societies. Risks and benefits related to its possible applications, however, must be carefully weighted, avoiding utopian expectations, as well as the pitfalls of technocratic reasoning and determinism.

If properly managed, decentralization of government services through permissioned blockchains is possible and desirable, since it can significantly increase public administration functionality. Decentralization of governance through open, distributed blockchains like Bitcoin, however, presents serious risks and drawbacks, which offset the benefits.

A reasonable conclusion is that the blockchain-based governance should be seen as an organizational theory – with significant technical and managerial advantages for markets, private services, communities – while it is not meant to be a stand-alone political theory. Likewise, blockchain technology and decentralized platforms are not hyper-political, but rather pre-political tools. If not balanced out by the functions of centralized, political institutions, the blockchain-based governance risk to fall within the concept of amoral antipolitics,“dressed up in the language of inevitability concerning the working of globalization and the free-market”

//

Marcella Atzori

what could this mean for nation-states? for cities? what is needed for this new global blockchain based organisation to be sustainable?

… we are moving into a landscape where art and

science, design and engineering are inseparable. At their intersection lies the new creative laboratory for the future of our narrative

practices.

“

Alex McDowell

so, what if..

the future of sharing is not a “sharing paradigm”

but a network organised urban glocal society based upon an updated more sustainable perspective of man and earth

how would it look like?

thanks. let’s meet in the future.

yours sincerely,Catherine

// THE END

Catherine Van Holder @cvanholder - catherine@pantopicon.be