The Future of Roads and Transport Tittel - Statens vegvesen...2 The Future of Roads and Transport...
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The Future of Roads and TransportWhat we know and what we don’t know
Kelly Pitera
Associate professor, NTNU
Bygg- og miljøteknikk
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The Future of Roads and Transport
Changes due to
• Technology (vehicles, communication…)
• Society (the way we want to live)
• Political priorities (for example: green, smart,
carbon neutral…)
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The Future of Roads and Transport
Many questions…
• What is the new technology?
• When will it be ready?
• How will new technology be used?
• What infrastructure is required?
Not that many answers (yet).
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Autonomous vs Connected Vehicles
• Autonomous Vehicle (AV): a vehicle that is capable of
sensing its environment and moving with little or
no human input
• Connected Vehicle (CV): a vehicle that can
communicate with other vehicles and the surrounding
environment (information is provided to the driver or the
road operators)
• AVs and CVs can be separate, but the future is likely to
bring CAVs Connected Automated Vehicles
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SAE Levels of Automation
https://www.birmingham.ac.uk/news/thebirminghambrief/items/2016/11/driving-the-revolution.aspx
Today The future
6https://www.danielrrosen.com/study-most-americans-not-thrilled-about-autonomous-cars/
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Connectivity to a cloud
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V2X (Vehicle to Everything)
https://www.rcrwireless.com/20180601/network-infrastructure/what-is-c-v2x-tag17-tag99
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Geofencing Oslo Demo (connectivity)
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Role of public and private
stakeholders
• Private stackholders are providing the technology
– Vehicles, communication platforms, services (MaaS)
• Public stakeholders establish policies and
regulations
– Safety, privacy/data sharing, cybersecurity, use/mobility,
infrastructure
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CAVs and Congestion
Increasing capacity• CAVs can operate with smaller headways and/or as platoons
• More efficient intersection operations
• Although little impact until high levels of penetration(Atkins, Research on the Impacts of Connected and Autonomous Vehicles (CAVs) on Traffic Flow, 2016)
But induced demand• New classes of users: elderly, disabled, youth up to 14%
increase in demand (US study: Harper et al. Estimating potential increases in travel with
autonomous vehicles for the non-driving, elderly and people with travel-restrictive medical conditions, 2016)
• Value of time: can now do things while commuting
• Combined with increased capacity increased demand 10-35% (Fagnant, Preparing a nation for autonomous vehicles: opportunities, barriers and policy recommendations,
2015) (Fehrs and Peers, Next Generation Vehicles
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The future of mobility
• The average vehicle is used 4% of the day (1 hour)
Future mobility
• Shared
• On-demand (flexible)
• On a backbone of
collective transport
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Visions for AV Deployment
Fixed and
Scheduled
Services
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Visions for AV Deployment
Fixed and
Scheduled
Services
Point to Point
Mobility on
Demand
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Visions for AV Deployment
Fixed and
Scheduled
Services
Freight
Point to Point
Mobility on
Demand
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Visions for AV Deployment
Fixed and
Scheduled
Services
FreightUtility Services
(garbage collection,
street sweeping)
Point to Point
Mobility on
Demand
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Visions for AV Deployment
Fixed and
Scheduled
Services
FreightUtility Services
(garbage collection,
street sweeping)
Point to Point
Mobility on
Demand
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Final thoughts
• Smart technology must go hand in hand with smart policy
• Many unknowns– Vehicle and communication technology (what and when)
– Public/private partnerships
– Level of demand
• CAVs can induce demand– How do we model the potential demand impacts?
– How do we get people (Norwegians) out of their private cars?
– How do we make sure CAVs don’t compete with the collectivetransport system?
• Then we can make changes to how we plan ourinfrastructure