The Future of Renewable Energy and Integration of Variable Renewables

Dr. Eric Martinot

Professor, Beijing Institute of Technology, School of Management and Economics Senior Policy Advisor, Japan Renewable Energy Foundation

Visiting Fellow, California Public Utilities Commission

eric@martinot.info http://www.martinot.info

REvision 2015 Removing the Barriers to RE Development in Japan March 4, 2015

Tokyo

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Roles of Different Types of Companies 

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How$Is$California$Integrating$and$Balancing$Renewable$Energy$Today?$

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Likely that reflects contributions from the big Ivanpah concentrated solar (CSP)plant that came online last month. Note that these two new solar outputrecords also occurred in early March -- expect them to be short-lived as springand summer approach with higher irradiance, even more facilities come online,and demand spikes. Those hotter summer days are, of course, precisely whenthe boost of daytime solar output is needed most.

CAISO now has about 11.1 GW of combined wind and solar resourcesinterconnected to its grid, and roughly 15 GW for all renewables in its mix. Andit'll continue to add more as the state pushes toward and looks beyond itscurrent 33 percent renewable portfolio standard. On top of that, the CaliforniaPublic Utilities Commission (CPUC) just authorized utilities to procure morerenewable energy (and other sources like natural gas, plus more energyefficiency) to help offset the lost generation from the shuttered SONGS nuclearplant. Bringing more solar and wind into the grid increases the challenge inmeeting demand when they aren't producing, i.e. when the sun doesn't shineor wind doesn't blow, so CAISO stresses more flexible technologies on thegrid that can start and stop frequently and quickly, such as storage and naturalgas. "We have seen production drops of over 300 MW in less than 30minutes," Greenlee noted. (Here we invoke the infamous Duck Curve showingthe steepening ramping needs and overgeneration risk -- illustrating a potentialramp need of 13 GW within three hours.)

"Duck curve" showing steep ramping needs and overgeneration risk,representing net load on March 31, 2013. Credit: CAISO

Another tool that CAISO is developing to help manage its growing renewablesfleet is the Energy Imbalance Market (EIM), which opens CAISO's real-timemarket for last-minute balancing of supply and demand to non-ISO entities ona pay-per-use basis, broadening the pool of energy that entities can offer andbuy from beyond their own balancing areas, Greenlee explained. The marketwill go live this October, with Oregon-based PacifiCorp as the first customer."If the sun blocks the Southern California solar facilities, utilities can tap intothe EIM and buy energy from non-ISO generators," Greenlee explained. "Or ifPacifiCorp has an excess of energy, it can offer it in the EIM."

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minimum net load occurs during the middle of the day. Figure 2 also shows that neither wind nor solarpeak production coincides with the system peak load.

During the spring months, the ISO may have to cycle resources on and off more than once a day tomeet the double peak shown. At times, this may not be possible because the down time betweenresource shutdown and start-up may be too long, which may prevent the resource from being restartedin time for the morning load ramp that begins around 4:00 a.m., or meeting system peak demandaround 7:00 p.m.

To help manage the lack of fleet flexibility, the ISO is currently implementing a ramping tool6 topredict and alert system operators of the load-following capacity and ramping requirements needed onthe system in real-time. The ISO is also introducing a flexible ramp product7 to ensure enough dis-patchable capacity will be available on a 5-min dispatch basis in the real-time market.

During middays with high solar production, there is less need to commit additional supply re-sources, but toward sunset, an immediate need exists to replace the solar generation to continuemeeting consumer demand. Many resources that could replace solar generation must be committedbefore this significant ramp, which begins before sunset. These resources often require several hours toa day or more to fully come on-line, which can result in more generation on-line than consumerdemand, causing overgeneration conditions. By 2020, the ISO expects that increased flexibility will beneeded to reliably meet two net-load peaks, which would require managing approximately 7000 MWof upward and downward ramps in 3-h time frames, and provide nearly 13,000 MWof continuous up-ramping capability to meet the evening peak, also in a 3-h time frame.

An additional condition not illustrated in Figure 2 is the variability within the hour becauseof clouds or storms, which requires flexible resources to smooth out the renewables’ sudden changes

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3. Flexibility requirement 71

Regulatory!and!Policy!Challenges!of!Renewable!Energy!Integration!into!Power!Grids!!

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