The future of IT should be Green

The future of IT should be GreenCEPIS 2016 Athens

@TomRaftery

Independent analyst, IoT, Energy and CleanTech, tomraftery.comtwitter.com/[email protected]+34 677 695 468SlideShare.net/TomRaftery

Tom Raftery

@TomRaftery

Analyst/FuturistTypically looking 5-10 years out

Bad newsGood news

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Bad news

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https://scripps.ucsd.edu/programs/keelingcurve/

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Measure of incoming ocean breeze above the thermal inversion layer to minimise local contaminationOn May 9, 2013 passed 400 ppm for the first timeIn 2014 stayed above 400ppm for 3 months For 6 months in 2015, and now permanently above 400ppm?


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http://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2016-04-19/earth-s-temperature-just-shattered-the-thermometer

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Last record cold month was 99 years ago

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/apr/30/daytime-cooking-ban-in-india-as-heatwave-claims-300-lives

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http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/apr/19/great-barrier-reef-93-of-reefs-hit-by-coral-bleaching

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http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/apr/13/greenland-sees-record-smashing-early-ice-sheet-melt-climate-change

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http://www.insurancejournal.com/news/national/2016/04/12/405089.htm

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Margaret Davidson, NOAAs senior advisor for coastal inundation and resilience science and services said recent data that has been collected but has yet to be made official indicates sea levels could rise by roughly 3 meters or 9 feet by 2050-2060

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"a long-term goal of keeping the increase in global average temperature to well below 2C above pre-industrial levels" 2015 Paris Climate Accordhttp://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/international/negotiations/paris/index_en.htm

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195 of the worlds countries adopted the first-ever universal, legally binding global climate dealGovernments agreed - a long-term goal of keeping the increase in global average temperature to well below 2C above pre-industrial levels; - to aim to limit the increase to 1.5C, since this would significantly reduce risks and the impacts of climate change; - on the need for global emissions to peak as soon as possible, recognising that this will take longer for developing countries; - to undertake rapid reductions thereafter in accordance with the best available science.

2 C = 1,100 GtCO2 http://www.nature.com/articles/nature14016.epdf

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1 Gigaton = 1,000,000,000 tonsGlobal emissions 40-50 GtCO2 per annumPlanet re-absorbs around 25 GtCO2

1,100 GtCO2 = Carbon Budgethttp://www.nature.com/articles/nature14016.epdf

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1 Gigaton = 1,000,000,000 tonsGlobal emissions 40-50 GtCO2 per annumPlanet re-absorbs around 25 GtCO2

Proven Reserves = 3,300 GtCO2http://www.nature.com/articles/nature14016.epdf

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3,300 GtCo2 is the amount of carbon already contained in the proven coal, oil and gas reserves of the fossil-fuel companies, and countries

1,100 GtCO2 = 2 C3,300 GtCO2 = Reserves => Uh Oh!http://www.nature.com/articles/nature14016.epdf

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Between 60-80% of coal, oil and gas reserves of publicly listed companies are unburnable if the world is to have a chance of not exceeding global warming of 2CApprox = $20tn

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Good news

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http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/ghgemissions/gases/co2.html

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Electricity - 38%Transportation - 32%Electrification of transportation fleet means up to 70% of emissions can be affected by leveraging electricity

Transportation

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https://www.teslamotors.com/model3

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Model S costs $100k>125k Teslas on the road todayModel 3 coming in 2017 will cost $35k, 400,000 already pre-ordered

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/apr/28/germany-subsidy-boost-electric-car-sales

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http://www.sciencealert.com/the-netherlands-is-making-moves-to-ban-all-non-electric-vehicles-by-2025

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Motion adopted by lower house of the Dutch parliament,still needs to pass the senateCurrently 10% of new car sales

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/jul/18/chinese-built-zero-emissions-electric-bus-prepares-for-service-in-london

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Buses can go full day on a single charge, and need 4 hours to recharge overnight on off peak electricity

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/apr/21/new-zealands-largest-bus-company-to-retrofit-fleet-with-electric-engines

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http://www.railway-technology.com/features/featuremichel-kerkhof-of-eneco-discusses-the-dutch-rail-networks-renewable-revolution-4647194/

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Total consumption is 1.4 TWh per yearCurrently 50% from wind100% by 2018

http://www.theverge.com/2015/7/10/8927489/bmw-electric-truck-europe-terberg

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http://www.planetsolar.org

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In 2012, PlanetSolar became the first ever solar electric vehicle to circumnavigate the globe.

http://www.sfchronicle.com/news/science/article/Solar-plane-prepares-to-leave-California-for-7387227.php

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Solar Impulse II - Longest non-stop solo flight in history 72 hours Japan - Hawaii

http://www.airbusgroup.com/int/en/corporate-social-responsibility/airbus-e-fan-the-future-of-electric-aircraft/Programme.html

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Airbus E-Fan - Flew across English Channel in 36 minsGoing into commercial production in 2017 with 2 & 4 seat versions

Electricity

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Electricity grids - dumb!

http://www.flickr.com/photos/bright/24691962/

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When there is a blackout - the first the utility knows about it is when the phone rings with people asking where their electricity has gone

Buggyhttp://www.flickr.com/photos/traftery/4367029329/

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Blackouts/brownouts are not uncommon

Read Only

http://www.flickr.com/photos/ericskiff/2400270056/

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Read only - not read/write

Many electricity companies don't want you to place electricity back into the grid.

Architected for the Pasthttp://www.flickr.com/photos/bakewell/35026819/

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Designed for a situation where supply is constant and controllable but demand is variable but predictable

Now with the requirement of adding renewables -Supply is becoming variable and unpredictable

With supply and demand both variable comes increased instability - We must therefore introduce some flexibility into our demand.

Provisioning for Hits

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No cloud computing for electricity generation, so requires peaking plants - dirty & run as little as a few hours per year

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Renewables (wind & solar)Storage (batteries & trains!)IoT (digitisation of energy)

http://www.flickr.com/photos/hsinho/228010056/

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Variable generators - the bogey man

Wind

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https://demanda.ree.es/demandaEntreFechasEng.html

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Typical demand curve April 29th - morning & evening peaks, overnight low 2-3amSupply of renewables is often almost exactly out of synch with demandWind often blows strongest overnight when energy demand is lowest

https://demanda.ree.es/eolicaEng.html

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Supply of renewables is generally out of synch with demand

Wind often blows strongest overnight when energy demand is lowest

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/jul/10/denmark-wind-windfarm-power-exceed-electricity-demand

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High winds allowed Denmark to meet all of its electricity needs with plenty to spare for Germany, Norway and Sweden too

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-windpower-idUSKCN0XG1UA

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Solar

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Swanson effect - price of PV falls 20% for every doubling of installed capacity

http://www.treehugger.com/renewable-energy/striking-chart-showing-solar-power-will-take-over-world.html

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Price falls -> more attractive -> more installed -> price falls=> Virtuous circle

http://www.thenational.ae/business/energy/uae-beats-renewables-cost-hurdle-with-worlds-cheapest-price-for-solar-energy

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Riyadh-based Acwa Power had lowest bidAnd offered to go to 5.4c if they got the whole 1,000MWThe solar power will be sold to Dewa for 5.84c/kWh over 25 yearsNatural gas which generates 99% of the UAEs electricity costs 9c

https://menaherald.com/en/2016/05/01/dewa-receives-5-bids-phase-iii-mohammed-bin-rashid-al-maktoum-solar-park/

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Less than 1.5 years later, price dropped from 5.84c to 2.99c/kWh

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2014-05-16/china-targets-70-gigawatts-of-solar-power-to-cut-coal-reliance

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China, increasing its solar target to 70GW by 2017Try doing that with nuclear

http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/06/17/3670558/india-makes-huge-solar-commitment-100-gigawatts/

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India alone have a goal of 100GW by 2022

http://www.climatechangenews.com/2016/04/18/solar-is-now-cheaper-than-coal-says-india-energy-minister/

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And this price is heading towards the poles

Greece

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http://www.lagie.gr/fileadmin/groups/EDRETH/DAS_Monthly_Reports/201603_DAS_Monthly_Report.pdf

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25.7% renewables (of which 40% wind, and 52% solar)24.5% coal28.4% natural gas17.5% hydro3.8% oil

https://pangea.stanford.edu/ERE/db/WGC/papers/WGC/2015/01048.pdf

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Storage

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Image http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/9/9a/Pumpstor_racoon_mtn.jpg

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Pumped hydro storage is a mature technology

However large capital cost ( billions)

Requires specific geological conditions (two lakes separated by about 400m height)

Amt of storage dictated by geography not by needs!

Image http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/d/d9/Minebw-large.jpg

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Compressed air energy storage

Storage mechanism for limited amounts of energy.

Large capital cost and requires certain geological structures (large caverns underground)

http://www.vox.com/2016/4/28/11524958/energy-storage-rail

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The company claims the process, end to end, is 86 percent efficient

https://www.flickr.com/photos/traftery/15070098194/

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1-2MWhBattery leasing -> analytics subscriptionAlevo

Photo http://www.teslamotors.com/powerwall

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Tesla is market making 7kWh - $3,000

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http://www.extremetech.com/internet/198462-new-aluminum-air-battery-could-blow-past-lithium-ion-be-refilled-with-water

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http://www.popsci.com/researchers-accidentally-make-batteries-last-400-times-longer

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http://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/us-energy-storage-market-grew-243-in-2015-largest-year-on-record

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http://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/us-energy-storage-market-grew-243-in-2015-largest-year-on-record

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http://www.teslamotors.com/gigafactory

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Called Gigafactory 1Produce 35 GWh of batteries per annumReduce costs of batteries by 30%Tesla wants to produce 500,000 cars per annum

http://techcrunch.com/2016/05/04/tesla-ramps-up-its-ambitions-expecting-to-produce-500000-cars-annually-by-2018/

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Photo http://www.teslamotors.com/

70kW x 250,000 cars

= 17.5 GWh p.a.

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large distributed battery bank - virtual power plantCar batteries 60-90kWhPowerwall - 10kWh

I(o)T

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IT as the enabler

http://www.sap.com/pc/tech/internet-of-things/software/predictive-maintenance/index.html

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Predictive maintenance - many vendors have solutions to address this

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https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/9/9a/Intelligenter_zaehler-_Smart_meter.jpg

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Behind the meter is where it gets interestingIncreasing # of in-home devices are connected

https://nest.com

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http://www.smartusys.com

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Smart Utility Systems - apps for controlling the homePpl want more intelligent devices - set & forget

Use proven principles

http://www.flickr.com/photos/alexbip/247333777/

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Turn electricity into a market

Real-time dynamic pricing based solely on supply and demand

In times of heavy supply and light demand electricity v cheap or negative to stimulate demand. Avoids curtailment of renewables.Stimulates usage by unlikely energy stores (swimming pools, refrigeration plants, EVs)

When demand heavy and supply light - electricity expensive.DCs go on diesel generators/battery, refrigeration plants, water heaters adjust thermostats, AC adjusts thermostat

Smart Appliances

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Whirlpool dryerAppliances subscribe to realtime pricing info & adjust their behaviour accordinglyWater heating Fridges & freezersAircon

http://issuu.com/constructionbusinessmedia/docs/1509_nzb/23?e=6596036/30295990

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Ice air-conditioning

http://www.rmi.org/electricity_demand_flexibility

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Demand flexibility can unlock $13 billion per year of avoided grid investment and 10 to 40% savings on customer bills.

Internet of Things - LV

http://www.metering.com/epris-automated-dr-software-tells-appliances-when-its-cheapest-to-run/

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EPRI developed it with American Electric Power, California Independent System Operator, lectricit de France S.A., ESB Networks Ltd. (Ireland), Kansas City Power and Light Company, New York Independent System Operator, The Southern Company, and Tokyo Electric Power Company, Inc.

http://www.flexiblepower.org

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http://flexiblepower.github.io

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https://github.com/flexiblepower

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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uPUErZUrA0c

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https://www.uber.com/

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Companies like Uber will come and disrupt the markets.Constantly polling for optimal provider?

Other Challenges

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http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/aerofarms-newark-kale_us_5717d500e4b0479c59d6d2ae

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uses - 95% less water than traditional farms, and says it gets - 75 times more crops per square foot of growing space than traditional field systems

http://www.onegreenplanet.org/news/meet-the-vegan-burger-that-may-change-the-food-world-as-we-know-it/

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making the plant-based burger uses - 99% less land, - 85% less water, and emits - 89% less greenhouse gas than traditional beef production

http://greenwave.org/

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3D Ocean farming

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/nov/30/major-powers-pledge-20bn-for-green-energy-research

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http://www.breakthroughenergycoalition.com/en/news.html

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Conclusion

Climate change is an enormous challengeRenewables and storage will be transformativeWith IT can we Make it so!

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ThanksMerciDankeGraciasGrazieTakGo raibh maith agatObrigadoTackDzikiKszBedanktTakkDkyHvalaKiitosKszpateicbadkojuMulumirivakadiolch

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The future of IT should be Green

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