Fast Fashion or Futurists?The Diverging Role of Market Research in Business

Robert MoranBRUNSWICK INSIGHT

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@robertpmoran

#IIeX

www.futureofinsight.com

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Fast Fashion

Do. Think.Speed to MarketRapid Iteration

Products as Real-Time ExperimentsAnalysis of Sales Data

Futurist

Think. Do.Anticipate Futures

Analysis of S.T.E.E.P. Factors

or

Solving for Acceleration

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But, first, the problem of accelerating,

discontinuous change.

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Metabolic Rate of Capitalism Quickening

Source: National Intelligence Council’s “Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds” Report

Source: Richard Foster, Yalehttp://www.innosight.com/innovation-resources/strategy-innovation/upload/creative-destruction-whips-through-corporate-america_final2012.pdf

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The 10Ds that will change your business.

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Change is more rapid and discontinuous

than ever.

But it won’t change MY business.

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The Acceleration Challenge to Market Research:

Snapshot in Time & the Driver’s Side Window

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22 Plausible Futures Scenarios

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• Mobile surveys• Location-based

research• Augmented

Reality• “Lifestreaming”

• Online surveys• Prompted by

declining telephone survey participation rates and onlinetechnology

• Data becomes abundant and inexpensive

• Shift to “convenience samples”

• Face to Face surveys

Face to Face Telephone1920-1950

• Telephone surveys

• Vertically integrated data collection systems

Online Geomobile1950-2000

2000-

Data Collection—Asking (Survey)Behavioral

• Move away from the survey instrument as the main research vehicle

• Dramatic shift from Intrusive, interrogatory research, to passive, listening-based research

• Social media research

• “Listening posts”

• MROCS• Text analytics• “Rateocracy”

2008-

Listening Neurological

• Track neurological response

• fMRI • Eye-tracking

and other biological response monitoring

• CRM software• Big data• Experimental

marketing

• Geotracking• Clickstreams

ObservationalUGC

• Collaborative co-creation

• User-generated content (UGC)

• Insights communities (MROCs) will dominate

• Creation of “design communities”

Co-Creative

• Focus shifts from mapping current opinion to anticipating future behaviors and alternative futures

• Mass simulation gaming*

• MROC Delphi panels*• Strategic Foresight• Agent-based

computational modeling

• Predictive markets

Anticipatory

Anticipatory

2011

2010 2012

2012

The Forecast

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Socially Driven Scenarios

Technology Driven Scenarios

Economically Driven Scenarios

The Incredible Shrinking Survey

Geo-Timed Feedback Dispersive Convergence

Do Not DisturbRapid In-Market Experimentation

Lilliput

Back to the Future Iterative Insight Streaming E-Agency

What was privacy? Portal Power Global Depth

Power to the People Let’s Play a Game Need for Speed

From Value to Values Limbic Space Invaders

Tribal Rituals Nano-Targeting Anticipation

Epidemiology

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Market Research and the “Think. Do.” Model

Think.Do.

Do.Think.

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RIMEing: Rapid In Market Experimentation

Fast, inexpensive and fashionable clothing

in a tight feedback loop.

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When a simple snapshot in time can’t get you ahead of the curve.

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Big Changes on the Horizon

http://www.wfs.org/reports/UrgentWarningsReport2ndEd.pdf

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…and a different society.

http://www.wfs.org/reports/UrgentWarningsReport2ndEd.pdf

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Navigating Change:

Enoughness

Collaborative Consumption

Prosumers

Thank You

Follow me on Twitter at @robertpmoran