The future of golf club management - GCMA · PDF filenow -and then.html slide 2 128MB 128GB ....
Transcript of The future of golf club management - GCMA · PDF filenow -and then.html slide 2 128MB 128GB ....
The future of golf club
management
David Wood @dw2
Principal, Delta Wisdom Chair, London Futurists londonfuturists.com deltawisdom.com
Anticipating the unexpected
@dw2 Page 2
@dw2 Page 3 Vision: June 1998
Positive
feedback
cycle
Anticipated convergence
Built a software platform for collaboration
Spotted trends
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Newspaper ad revenue
US Newspaper Advertising Revenue Adjusted for Inflation
1950 to 2014
?
@dw2 Page 5
Collapse of newspaper ad revenue
http://www.aei-ideas.org/2014/04/creative-destruction-2013-newspaper-ad-revenue-continued-its-precipitous-free-fall-and-its-probably-not-over-yet/
US Newspaper Advertising Revenue Adjusted for Inflation
1950 to 2014
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Disruption via convergence
Are impacted & transformed
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Disruption: collisions and collapses
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/hmv-collapse-live-blog-follow-1534816
@dw2 Page 8 http://www.philipbeeching.com/2012/08/why-companies-fail-rise-and-fall-of-hmv.html
“Greatest threats to HMV… online retailers, downloadable music…”
Advice given to HMV CEO, 2002
The CEO’s reply:
“I have never heard such rubbish”
“Downloadable music is just a fad”
“People will always want the atmosphere and experience of a music store rather than online shopping”
The dotcom bubble had just burst…
But the deeper trends were still up… Trends of computation & digitisation
@dw2 Page 9 http://www.digitaltrends.com/home-theater/blockbuster-uk-administration/
Disruption: collisions and collapses Blockbuster could
have bought Netflix for $50M
Blockbuster laughed at the
Netflix proposal
Netflix is today valued >$20B
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Kindle books vs. physical books
www.theverge.com/2012/9/6/3298533/amazon-kindle-event-september-6th-video-watch
E-books leapfrog physical books at Amazon
in less than 3 years
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
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Disruption via convergence
Are impacted & enhanced
Are impacted & superseded
?
See the steamrollers coming Be agile and strong enough to turn the steamrollers to your advantage
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Trend management: seeing what’s credible 1. Identifying trends – establish your catalogue of trends
– Technological trends – Social trends – Political trends
2. Cultivate sources of insight – Customer insight – Competitor insight – Employee insight – Research insight – Maverick insight
3. Monitoring trends – Identify what would count as future “canary” signals – Update your list regularly (once a quarter, formal review annually)
@dw2 Page 13 http://www.computerworld.com/article/2473980/data-storage-solutions/143723-Storage-
now-and-then.html slide 2
128MB 128GB
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Improvement in wireless networks www.arraycomm.com/technology/coopers-law
Cooper’s Law: The amount of information that can be transmitted over useful radio spectrum has
roughly doubled every 30 months since 1895
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-1373272/ The-day-Martin-Cooper-took-mobile-phone-public-leaving-New-Yorkers-bemused-bewildered.html
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Computations per kWh, 1950-2010 Improvement in energy efficiency of computers
Source: Jonathan Koomey, Consulting Professor, Stanford Technology Review, 9 Apr 2012
10^3 to 10^15 over 60 years
http://www.technologyreview.com/news/427444/the-computing-trend-that-will-change-everything/
40 doublings over 60 years 18 months average doubling
In line with “Moore’s Law”
100 fold improvement per decade
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www.intel.com/pressroom/kits/events/moores_law_40th/
(Gordon) Moore’s Law: 1965
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http://www.wsj.com/articles/moores-law-runs-out-of-gas-1429282819
@dw2 Page 18 http://arstechnica.com/gadgets/2015/02/intel-forges-ahead-to-10nm-will-move-away-from-silicon-at-7nm/
Steady progress towards smaller architectures
Quantum computing?
3D chips?
Silicon -> indium gallium
arsenide?
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Changes in the last 10 years
2005
2015 5 times faster
5 times cheaper
4 times smaller
Smartphones
Computing+++
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Positive feedback cycles
Design, Manufacturing
Computers
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Positive feedback cycles
Software tools (debuggers, compilers…)
Software
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Positive feedback cycles
Education
Technology
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People
Technology
Education
Networks
Tools Positive
feedback
cycle
Designers Entrepreneurs
Engineers
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We tend to overestimate the effect of a technology
in the short run and underestimate the effect in the long run
Roy Amara President, Institute for the Future
Amara’s Law
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New platform capability
Disappointment
Further Disappointment
Again!
Old platform no longer
competitive
Disruptions can take a long time in gestation Even though they may eventually seem to blossom quickly
Previous platform
New processes,
skills & tools
critically important
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B N
C I
NBIC Convergence
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Atoms Genes
Bits Neurons
Bio-Tech
Nano-Tech
Cogno-Tech
Info-Tech
Software
Hardware
Biology Physical
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3
Human + Machine
4
2 1
4 great convergences
Mobile -> Wearable -> -> Insideable ->…
Cyborgs
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Convergence: Human and machine
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324235104578241801065110288.html
Wearables
@dw2 Page 30 https://www.kickstarter.com/projects/junhao/darma-sit-smart-for-a-healthy-body-and-mind
Darma: Sit smart for a healthy body and mind
“Sitting has become the smoking of our
generation” – Nilofer Merchant
“Smart cushion”
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“Already lets you run up to 40 km/h”
http://www.bionicboot.com/
“Bionic boots”
Wearable robots
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“Robotic suit gives shipyard workers super strength”
Daewoo Shipbuilding
Boosts raw lifting ability Workers manipulate heavy items more precisely
Suit takes most of the weight So the user is effectively handling light objects
http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg22329803.900-robotic-suit-gives-shipyard-workers-super-strength.html
Wearable robots: Exoskeleton
Suit weights 28 kg Made from carbon, aluminium alloy, and steel
The suit supports itself Engineered to follow the wearer’s movements
@dw2 Page 33 http://www.mc10inc.com/
“When Wearable Tech Saves Your Life, You Won’t Take It Off”
Digital tattoos
“Epidermal electronics”
The size of just 2 postage stamps
http://www.fastcompany.com/3033417/when-wearable-tech-saves-your-life-you-wont-take-it-off
@dw2 Page 34 http://the-gadgeteer.com/2013/12/30/zepp-sensor-for-golf-review/
Can be used for tennis & baseball too Zepp sensor for golf
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“Towards 1 Billion Shipments
… within 10 years”
– Ori Inbar
“Smart Glasses Market 2015” – report from AugmentedReality.ORG
Glasses phase 1 -> phase 2 -> phase 3 -> phase 4…
@dw2 Page 36 “Smart Glasses Market 2015” – report from AugmentedReality.ORG
Glasses phase 1
Glasses phase 2
Glasses phase 3
Phase 4
@dw2 Page 37 https://itunes.apple.com/us/app/golfscape-gps-rangefinder/id382051762
@dw2 Page 38 “Smart Glasses Market 2015” – report from AugmentedReality.ORG
With probability around 60%
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Mobile -> Wearable -> -> Insideable ->…
Cyborgs
3
Human + Machine Software + Biology
4
2 1
4 great convergences
@dw2 Page 40 http://www.genome.gov/sequencingcosts/
$100M in 2001
$10M in 2007
Halving each 2 yrs
@dw2 Page 41 http://www.genome.gov/sequencingcosts/
$100M in 2001
$10k in 2011
$10M in 2007
Halving each 2 yrs
Halving each 5 months!
@dw2 Page 42
George Church Professor of Genetics
Harvard Medical School
http://www.frontlinegenomics.com/2166/have-veritas-genetics-broken-the-1000-genome-barrier/
BOSTON, Sept. 29, 2015 /PRNewswire/ Veritas Genetics today announced that the company is making it possible for participants in the Personal Genome Project (PGP) to be among the first to get their whole genome sequenced and interpreted for less than $1,000.
@dw2 Page 43 Rob Carlson, Feb 2014: www.synthesis.cc
Price per Base of DNA Sequencing
(Reading) & Synthesis
(Writing)
Convergence: Software and biology
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Convergence: Software and biology
http://www.economist.com/node/16163154
“And man made life”
Designer babies
Re-designed adults
Regenerative medicine
Stem cell therapies
Rejuveneering
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“The science behind radical life extension”
“Live long enough to live forever”
Golf (or activities related to golf) as key part of health-extending
regime
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Golf
Physical health
Mental health
Positive
feedback
cycle
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Martin Rudolf Heland, Kaffebeslaget, 1800
Next generation neuro-stimulants?
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Physical + Virtual
Mobile -> Wearable -> -> Insideable ->…
Cyborgs
3
Human + Machine Software + Biology
Synthetic biology
Genetic engineering
4
2 1
4 great convergences
@dw2 Page 49 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pAC5SeNH8jw
@dw2 Page 50 http://gazettereview.com/2015/07/oculus-rift-changing-way-travel/
The future of virtual reality (VR) Sensory immersion
Powerful feelings!
Dangerous sports (e.g. driving!)
Transforms meetings
Telecommuting finally becomes a
first class experience “How Oculus Rift Is Changing The Way We Travel”
Our avatars represent us Virtual Reality golf? Virtual Reality golf training?
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Dematerialisation
Owns no taxis Owns no hotels Owns no telco infra Owns no inventory
Owns no cinemas Creates no content Doesn’t own apps Has no actual money
https://twitter.com/MAC5WebDesign/status/663129925411454976 @ibmGE
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Physical + Virtual
VR -> AR (Augmented Reality)
MOOCs, cryptocurrency…
Deep machine learning
Hybrid intelligence
Mobile -> Wearable -> -> Insideable ->…
Cyborgs
3 AI + Human Intelligence
Human + Machine Software + Biology
Synthetic biology
Genetic engineering
4
2 1
4 great convergences
@dw2 Page 54
Trend management: seeing what’s credible 1. Identifying trends – establish your catalogue of trends
– Technological trends – Social trends – Political trends
2. Cultivate sources of insight – Customer insight – Competitor insight – Employee insight – Research insight – Maverick insight
3. Monitoring trends – Identify what would count as future “canary” signals – Update your list regularly (once a quarter, formal review annually)
@dw2 Page 55
10 Useful maverick(?) futurist reference sites 1. The World Future Society: http://www.wfs.org/
2. Singularity Hub (published by Singularity University)
– http://singularityhub.com/
3. Futurism, by Alex Klokus: http://futurism.com/
4. Institute for Ethics and Emerging Technology (IEET): http://ieet.org/
5. The Millennium Project – “The State of the Future”: https://themp.org/
6. The Singularity 1-1 podcast series, by Nikola Danaylov
– https://www.singularityweblog.com/
7. Kurzweil Accelerating Intelligence: http://www.kurzweilai.net/
8. Peter Diamandis (author of “Abundance”): http://www.diamandis.com/
9. Andreessen Horowitz blog: “Software is eating the world”
– http://a16z.com/
10. London Futurists newsletters: http://londonfuturists.com/newsletters/
@dw2 @ramez