The future of English Implications for BNCs
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The future of EnglishImplications for BNCs
Ricardo RomeroOxford University Press
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The plan for today
Demographic, political, economic and language trends in the world
Implications for Bi-national centers
The road ahead
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David Crystal “World Englishes)”
David Graddol “The future of English”
David Graddol “English Next”
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Analysis
Political changes in the world Demography World population Information technology Economy Education and mobility
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Age and needs
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Widening of student age and need
Over the next decade there will be a complex and changing mix of learner needs. More children will register to learn English
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Changing number of learners
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The rise and fall of learners
A massive increase in the number of people learning English has already begun, and is likely to reach a peak of around 2 billion in the next 10-15 years. Numbers of learners will then decline.
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People learning English 1960-2050
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Non-native speakers
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Rising competition
Non-native speaker providers of ELT services will create major competition to the UK and the US (Reaction to certification and standardization)
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Trends in international students
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Irreversible trend in international students The recent decline in international
students studying in the main English speaking countries is unlikely to reverse.
2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/090
100000
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Trends in international higher education (Marguerite J. Dennis, 2007)
International higher education, a $300 billion industryThe United States is attracting a declining share of foreign students. 1970 market share of 36.7% 1995 market share of 30% 2004 market share of 25%2007 market share of 22%.
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The net contribution to the U.S. economy by foreign students and their families for 2005-06 is almost 13.5 billion dollars.
Although the decline in international student enrollment in the United States was exacerbated by the events of September 11, 2001, the decline began before then.
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Monolingual and Native Speakers
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The doom of monolingualism
Monolingual English speakers face a bleak economic future and the barriers preventing them from learning other languages are rising rapidly.
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Irrelevance of native speakers
Native-speaker norms are becoming less relevant as English becomes a component of basic education in many countries.
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Growth of languages on the internet
The dominance of English on the internet is declining. Other languages, including lesser-used languages, are now proliferating.
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The economic advantage is ebbing away The competitive advantage
which English has historically provided its acquirers (personally, organizationally, and nationally) will ebb away as English becomes a near-universal basic skill. The need to maintain the advantage by moving beyond English will be felt more acutely.
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Retraining needed for English specialists Specialist English teachers will
need to acquire additional skills as English is less often taught as a subject on its own.
CLIL Global issues Psychology other
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The end of English as a Foreign Language
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Implications for BNCs Certification and accreditation Re-directing student orientation for
studies abroad Diversification in exam administration
Young learners General English wider scope Special English exam
More resources for children’s programs Changing paradigms for adult programs
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Implications for BNCs
Redefining teacher’s profiles Retraining teachers (CLIL) International certification for teachers A bigger competition for quality
teachers Strategic alliances with universities
for teacher training opportunities Diversification in our programs The need to be recognized as
binational institutions of technical assistance
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