The Future of Engine Technology industry... · Relative fuel consumption Engine ... enhancements to...
Transcript of The Future of Engine Technology industry... · Relative fuel consumption Engine ... enhancements to...
Scott WelshServices Marketing ManagerGE Aviation
The Future of Engine Technology
Airfinance Journal Roundtable Summit
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Expanded GE Aviation portfolio …
$4.6 $6.9 $3.5
(a- Includes GE’s 50% of CFM (50/50 JV between GE and Snecma
Digital Systems Electrical Power Mechanical SystemsUnison Engine Components
$1.3 $0.6
Commercial Engines
Commercial EngineServices
Military Engines & Services
–a)
(’07 Rev $, in billions)
Systems
A world leader in aviation technology
Engines & Services
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Integrating engines and systems to deliver greater customer value
Fuel Systems
Integrated AvionicsFlight ManagementData Management
Flight Data RecorderDisplays
Nose Landing Gear Steering,Actuation and Control
Remote Input/Output
UtilitiesManagement
FuelSystems
Power Generation
Power Generation
Power Generation
Power Distribution
Structures
Doors andDoor Actuators
Wing Structures
Thrust Reverser andCowl OpeningActuation System
Flying ControlSurfaces
Wing Structures
Primary FlightControl Actuators
EnvironmentalControl
Primary FlightControl Actuators
EmpennageComponents
Landing gear actuationand Control
High Lift Systems
Engine Actuation
Engine Nacelles
Primary FlightControl Actuators
AirframeComponents
Doors andDoor Actuators
Examples:
Enhanced Airborne Flight Recorder
Nose Gear Steering System
Common Core System
Landing Gear Actuation System
Highlift Actuation System
Remote Data Concentrators
GEnx engines
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Delivering reliability every day …
Every two seconds a GE or CFM powered aircraft is taking off somewhere around the world.
CFM International is 50/50 joint venture with Snecma (SAFRAN Group)
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Installed base growing … 8% CAGR
31%
43%
55%
64%
71%27,500
18,500
13,100
8,100
35,600
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
EA
Engines in service
CFM*Boeing
GE
Portion of world-wide jet fleet
CFM, CFM56, and the CFM logo are trademarks of CFM International, a 50/50 joint company between Snecma and General Electric Company
CFM Airbus
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Jan - 9 7 Jan - 9 9 Jan - 0 1 Jan - 0 3 Jan - 0 5
… and beyond industry expectations
• GE and CFM engines …700 million flight hours and growing
• Increasing departures …decreasing events
CFM, CFM56, and the CFM logo are trademarks of CFM International, a 50/50 joint company between Snecma and General Electric Company
(Cumulative averages)
105% increase
55% decrease
Base
2X
-0.5X
Cumulative change(Index vs. base)
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Aviation - a global economic driver
Contributions
� $3 trillion
� 8% of World GDP
� 29 million global jobs
A robust industry
� 30MM departures
� 2.2B passengers
� $600B backlog
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Fuel prices continue to rise –the growth segment of operating cost
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Cash AROC
Cash AROC
$35
Fuel
12%
Labor
24%
Others
59%
Mx 5%
Jet Fuel / bbl
Jet Fuel / bbl
'00 '01 '02 '03
Source: IATAGE Proprietary Information
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Fuel prices continue to rise –the growth segment of operating cost
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Cash AROC
Cash AROC
Fuel
28%Labor
22%
Others
45%
Mx
5%
$119
$35
Fuel
12%
Labor
24%
Others
59%
Mx 5%
Jet Fuel / bbl
Jet Fuel / bbl
'00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08YTD
Source: IATAGE Proprietary Information
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Fuel prices, plus future emissions chargeaccelerating operating cost growth
Cash AROC
Cash AROC
Fuel
28%Labor
22%
Others
45%
Mx
5%
Labor
20%
Others
32%
Emissions
5%
Fuel
40%
Mx
5%
$119
$35
Fuel
12%
Labor
24%
Others
59%
Mx 5%
Jet Fuel / bbl
Jet Fuel / bbl
'00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08YTD
'09E '10E '11E '12E
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Source: IATAGE Proprietary Information
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Aircraft
-70%
Commercial aviation making great efficiency gains
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Model Introduction
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Relative fuel consumption
Engine
-40%
Baseline
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1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Model Introduction
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Relative fuel consumption
Traffic
8.5x
Traffic growth exceeds progress, increasing aviation emissions
Baseline
Source: GE Analysis
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Public
electricity and heat production
35%Residential
8%
Energy
5%
Industry
18%
Aviation
2%
Roadtransport
18%
Othertransport
4% Othersectors
10%
Global CO2
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Aviation only 2% of the CO2 contributor
Source: IEA 2002 data& IATAGE Proprietary Information
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Air Traffic Control challenges
In the U.S.
� One-quarter flights delayed in ’07
� $66 cost per minute
In Europe
� Delays across 35 ATCs
� Cost $4.4B in 2007
U.S. Congestion Cost
$9B
$20B
2007 2020
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Performance based navigation –enhancements to existing system
� Reduced workload
� Fuel savings
� Lower noise
� Increased airport capacity
Source: FAA, IATA, GE Aviation Systems
Atlanta Hartsfield
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Performance based navigation –enhancements to existing system
� Reduced workload
� Fuel savings
� Lower noise
� Increased airport capacity
Source: FAA, IATA, GE Aviation Systems
Atlanta Hartsfield
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Global fleet redistribution –a growing support challenge
223 224 239 239 246 261
383 429 470 497 539603
'01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06
606
864
Growth in passenger airlines
<10 AC CAGR = 10%
≥ 10 AC CAGR = 3%
40% operator increase
� most with 10 aircraft or less
Varied airline technical expertise
� increased reliance on OEM
Alternate material choices
� technical limits on ability to provide support
� potential residual value impact
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The CFM56-3, 170,000,000 flight hours of support experience
CFM International is 50/50 joint venture with Snecma (SAFRAN Group)
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The CFM56-3, 170,000,000 flight hoursof support experience
CFM International is 50/50 joint venture with Snecma (SAFRAN Group)
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The CFM56-3, or is it?another growing support challenge
Multiple alternate material
providers &configurations
CFM International is 50/50 joint venture with Snecma (SAFRAN Group)
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Independent engine survey … asset value
*CFM, CFM56, and the CFM logo are trademarks of CFM International, a 50/50 joint company between Snecma and General Electric Company
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Efficiency gains in engine technology
-32%Since 1960
Long range application
High cycle application
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Relative fuel consumption
1980
CF6CFM56-3
CFM International is 50/50 joint venture with Snecma (SAFRAN Group)TECH Insertion and LEAP are registered trademarks of CFM International
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Efficiency gains in engine technology
-32%Since 1960
CFM56-5/7
GE90
Long range application
High cycle application
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Relative fuel consumption
1980 1990 2000
CF6CFM56-3
-5% to-8%
Since 1980
CFM International is 50/50 joint venture with Snecma (SAFRAN Group)TECH Insertion and LEAP are registered trademarks of CFM International
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Efficiency gains in engine technology
-32%Since 1960
2010
CFM56-5/7
GEnx
TECHInsertTM
GE90
Long range application
High cycle application
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Relative fuel consumption
1980 1990 2000
CF6CFM56-3
-5% to-8%
Since 1980
-6% to-15%Since 1980
TECHInsertTM
CFM International is 50/50 joint venture with Snecma (SAFRAN Group)TECH Insertion and LEAP are registered trademarks of CFM International
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2020 2030
Efficiency gains in engine technology
-32%Since 1960
2010
CFM56-5/7 TECHInsertTM
GEnx
TECHInsertTM
GE90
Long range application
High cycle application
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Relative fuel consumption
1980 1990 2000
CF6CFM56-3
-5% to-8%
Since 1980
-6% to-15%Since 1980
-15% to-25%Since 2008
LEAPTM
CFM International is 50/50 joint venture with Snecma (SAFRAN Group)TECH Insertion and LEAP are registered trademarks of CFM International
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Cleaner, quieter, faster, affordable
Fuel consumption
Emissions
Noise
Cost of ownership
Reliability
a product of
ecomaginationsm
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Commitment to technology investment
Technology focus areas
� Aerodynamics
� Materials
� Combustion
GE Aviation R&D investment
’05
’06
’07
$1.1B
$1.2B
$1.3B
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GE90
Major technology enablers - Aerodynamics
GEnx
CF6
12:1PressureRatio
23:1
>26:1
3-D Aero
LEAP
80’s 90’s 00’s NextCFM International is 50/50 joint venture with Snecma (SAFRAN Group)
LEAP is a registered trademark of CFM International
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Major technology enablers -Materials
GE36 UDF
unducted, composite blades
80’s 90’s
GE90compositefan blade
00’s
GEnxcompositefan bladeand case
Next
High temperature composites (CMCs)
Periodic Table
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90’s 00’s Next
NOxNOxCOCO
GE90-115BDAC TAPS
Twin-AnnularPre-Swirl
LEAP56Next-gen TAPS
GEnx TAPS
CFM/GE90 Dual-Annular Combustor
(DAC)
CF6 Low Emissions
Combustor (LEC)
Major technology enablers - Combustion
80’sCFM International is 50/50 joint venture with Snecma (SAFRAN Group)
LEAP56 is a registered trademark of CFM International
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Engine architecture options -Leading-Edge Aviation Propulsion (LEAP)
% Improved Fuel Burn
Open Rotor% Noise Reduction
15 20 25105Base
CFM56-7*
20
40
60%
Advanced turbofan
0
30%
Advanced Turbofan
� Proven design
� Improved reliability
Open Rotor
� Game changing performance
� Time to mature technologies
CFM International is 50/50 joint venture with Snecma (SAFRAN Group)LEAP is a registered trademark of CFM International
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GE Aviation – powering the future
� Significant trends affecting the aviation industry
� Continuous investment in technology, for today
and in the future
� Committed to the safe redistribution of our fleet, and protecting your asset value
� Focused on exceeding customer expectations -
creating clean, quiet, efficient, and affordable
products
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