The future of electromobility?

Dr. Börje GrandinDirector Hybrid Technologies

Vehicle R&D at CEVT

Legislation one driver for new CO2 technology!

Regulations Worldwide – Technology impact

Observation: All regulations are merging and will be below 100g in the future

Conclusion: Technology for reaching low CO2 must be adopted to a global market.

Fuel consumption can be reduced in 4 areas – New technology influence all 4 areas positively

Fuel consumption reduction, 4 steps

Product Planning

2. Using EnergyMeasures to improve:

Reduce energy consumption of the vehicle– friction & losses

Improved transmissions

Downsizing ICE

3. Energy recoveryMeasures to improve:• Stop-Start – Smart generator strategy• Hybrids

1. Waste of Energy Measures to improve:• Stop-Start – ICE off during vehicle stop• Hybrids

Test cycle for fuel consumption measurements in China and Europe

4. Shift away from oil based fuelsMeasures to improve:• Plug in Hybrids• Pure Electric vehicles• Fuel cell vehicles

New technology… Do we need it?

Nb! Peak efficiency of an ICE~45%, transmission ~95% 42%...

CO

2 N

ED

-C

0

100

50

20001000 1500

95g /km legal req.

75

125

25

35% P/T eff. = top performers!

50% P/T eff. = Very unlikely!

25% P/T eff.

g/k

m

kg

70g /km legal req.

Conventional technology capable…

New Technololgy needed …

Volvo V40

Legislation one driver for new CO2 technology!

Regulations Worldwide – Technology impact

Observation: All regulations are merging and will be below 100g in the future

Conclusion: Technology for reaching low CO2 must be adopted to a global market.

We need to include a

shift away from oil based fuels

7

Could the battery vehicle be mainstream?

Running costs are lower for electric vehicle!

Assumption:

200 Wh/km for electric vehicle and 5l gasoline per 100km

Example: 15000 km / year

1:50 SEK / kWh & 15 SEK/l gasoline

6750 SEK lower cost for electric vehicle per year

How many years to pay of the battery investment? …

8

Could the battery vehicle be mainstream?

*Investment with 3% cost of capital

Difference in running costsEl. Vs Gasoline

15000 km/yr

20000 km/yr

Investment* for 25kWh:

DoE target ~25kSEK2020+ est. ~50kSEK2015 cost ~75kSEK

9

The battery vehicle as mainstream

If a 2020 DoE target price for batteries will happen it is likely

The customer will decide

However:- Recharging still limits usable range- Volume & weight will limit installed capacity

BEV will be an excellent commuter vehicle

PHEV or Battery vehicle?... Or both?C

ost

Driving distance

Battery cost

Larger tank…

Electric vehicle

Plug-in Hybrid

Conventionell ICE Vehicle

?

11

Sizing the battery for every day driving

Daily Driving

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

km per day

% d

rivin

g

USSwedenJapanEU

Published May 2013 by US NRC

50km e-drive covers the daily driving for more than 50% of the population…

By providing a charge station during the day, a higher percentage of the population would be covered.

12

Higher priced vehicles have a lower market share Low on-cost solutions will be needed

Sa

le v

olu

me

Vehicle Price

Conventional vehicle

PHEV vehicle

BEV vehicle

Even Though a PHEV vehicle is a more cost effective way of reducing CO2, Mild hybrids might be needed as it is a lower cost technology

HEV vehicle

13

What is needed to get a large impact?

1. Reduce on-cost of electrification

2. Standards

3. Infrastructure for charging

4. Sustainable production of electricity

Date Created: [YYYY-MM-DD]

14

Reduce on-cost of electrification

Technology breakthrough in battery or continuous energy transfer- Target ~1000sek/kWh for 2020 for 10kWh battery pack

Integrated solutions to reduced complexity of systems- Combine all power electronics- Combine electric motor & power electronics- Integrated electric motors in transmissions

Lower cost system components- Electric distribution system, cables connectors etc..- Radiators and heat exchangers should be standard- Low cost internal combustion engines

Issuer: [Name] [CDS-ID]; [Organisation]; [Name of document]; Security Class: [Proprietary]

Date Created: [YYYY-MM-DD]

99010 B. Grandin, VCC EPS Strategy

Cost for Future power train?C

ost

Driving distance

Battery costElectric vehicle

Plug-in Hybrid

Conventionell ICE Vehicle

?

Cos

t

Driving distance

Electric vehicle

Plug-in Hybrid

Conventionell ICE Vehicle

?

16

Conclusions

Costs of electrification will come down

When electrification on-cost is in a range were first owners will have a return of investment, electrification will be mainstream!

PHEV and BEV will have different users- BEV: Short distance commuting- PHEV: Short distance commuting + occasional long distance

We will see both PHEV and BEV in the future

CEVT organisation

Current market situation

Market is increasing!

China is still not moving…

(However strongly motivated) Japan mature

US rising

EU still lagging..