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The Future of Coal Matt Jahnke February 13, 2006.
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Transcript of The Future of Coal Matt Jahnke February 13, 2006.
The Future of The Future of CoalCoal
Matt JahnkeMatt Jahnke
February 13, 2006February 13, 2006
Thoughts That Come to Thoughts That Come to MindMind
Negative PerceptionsNegative Perceptions Dirty MinesDirty Mines Old TechnologyOld Technology COCO22, SO, SOxx, NO, NOxx, and , and
other Pollutantsother Pollutants Dangerous MinesDangerous Mines Smog and SuitSmog and Suit Poor Working Poor Working
ConditionsConditions Politics (Relaxing Politics (Relaxing
Clean Clean
Air Standards)Air Standards)
Positive PerceptionsPositive Perceptions Abundant Supply in U.S.Abundant Supply in U.S. CheapCheap No Foreign RelianceNo Foreign Reliance New Clean TechnologiesNew Clean Technologies American Jobs in Plants, American Jobs in Plants,
Mines, and Mines, and TransportationTransportation
ElectricityElectricity Politics (R&D for Clean Politics (R&D for Clean
Air Research)Air Research)
Coal is Here to StayCoal is Here to StayU.S. Consumes 1.1 Billion Tons of Coal Annually
Types of CoalTypes of Coal
Anthracite 86-98% Carbon --15,000 BTU/lbAnthracite 86-98% Carbon --15,000 BTU/lb Small segment of Coal Market – Near PennsylvaniaSmall segment of Coal Market – Near Pennsylvania
Bituminous 45-86% Carbon -- 10,500-15,000 Bituminous 45-86% Carbon -- 10,500-15,000 BTU/lbBTU/lb Most U.S. Coal – Electricity – Coke – Industrial SteamMost U.S. Coal – Electricity – Coke – Industrial Steam
Sub-bituminous 35-45% Carbon --8,300-13,000 Sub-bituminous 35-45% Carbon --8,300-13,000 BTU/lbBTU/lb Western States and Alaska (PRB) – Lower in SulfurWestern States and Alaska (PRB) – Lower in Sulfur
Lignite 25-35% Carbon – 4,000-8,300 BTU/lbLignite 25-35% Carbon – 4,000-8,300 BTU/lb Young Coal, “Brown Coal”Young Coal, “Brown Coal”
Powder River BasinPowder River Basin
2Source: Energy Information Administration, May 2004 and December 2004.
8.1¢
31%
6.1¢
64%
5.7¢
94%
5.6¢
10%
5.8¢
69%
4.9¢
96%
6.9¢
78%
6.1¢
9%
6.5¢
75%
7.3¢
88%
8.6¢
51%11.3¢
1%
5.8¢
94%
6.6¢
44%
7.8¢
39%
6.6¢
85%
6.4¢
65%
6.6¢
61%
6.2¢
85%
7.0¢
47%
7.6¢
42%
6.9¢
70%
5.8¢
50%
7.2¢
26%
7.1¢
61%
5.6¢
94%
6.9¢
92%
9.6¢
3%
12.0¢
17%
7.0¢
44%
6.2¢
56%
6.7¢
63%
6.2¢
40%
4.6¢ 92%
6.5¢
50%
8.1¢
55%
5.1¢
98%
7.0¢
58%6.2¢ 60%
5.0¢
1%
11.3¢
8%
15.3¢
15%
NH 11.4¢ 22%VT 11.1¢ 0% MA 10.8¢ 23% RI 10.8¢ 0%CT 10.1¢ 13%NJ 10.4¢ 16%DE 7.3¢ 54%MD 7.1¢ 56%
¢ = average price per kilowatt hour through September 2004
% = percent of total generation from coal for 2003
< 7.0¢
< 7.0¢ - 8.5¢
>8.5¢
Hydro
Cost Per kWh & Percent of Coal GenerationCost Per kWh & Percent of Coal Generation
Low-Cost Electricity From Coal
Current Pollution from Current Pollution from CoalCoal
60% of U.S. Sulfur Dioxide Emissions60% of U.S. Sulfur Dioxide Emissions 33% of U.S. Mercury Emissions33% of U.S. Mercury Emissions 33% of U.S. NO33% of U.S. NOxx Emissions Emissions 33% of U.S. Carbon Dioxide33% of U.S. Carbon Dioxide Currently further reeducation in Currently further reeducation in
admissions is at a stalemate.admissions is at a stalemate. 5 Billion has been spent by the Federal 5 Billion has been spent by the Federal
Government for Clean-Coal Government for Clean-Coal TechnologiesTechnologies
Alternatives to CoalAlternatives to CoalAvailabiliAvailabilityty
EnvironmeEnvironmentalntal
CostCost
CoalCoal AbundantAbundant HighHigh LowLow
HydroHydro ModerateModerate MinorMinor LowLow
Wind & Wind & SolarSolar
UnreliablUnreliablee
MinorMinor ModeratModeratee
OilOil ScarceScarce ModerateModerate HigherHigher
Natural Natural GasGas
ModerateModerate ModerateModerate ModeratModerate and e and RisingRising
NuclearNuclear AbundantAbundant Minor or Minor or CatastrophCatastrophicic
Same as Same as CoalCoal
Coal vs. NuclearCoal vs. NuclearCost Element Cost Element NucleaNuclea
r r $/MW-$/MW-hrhr
Coal Coal $/MW-$/MW-hrhr
FuelFuel 55 1111
O&M and LaborO&M and Labor 66 55
Pensions, Insurance, Pensions, Insurance, TaxesTaxes
11 11
Regulatory FeesRegulatory Fees 11 0.10.1
Property TaxesProperty Taxes 22 22
CapitalCapital 99 99
Decommissioning & Decommissioning & WasteWaste
55 00
AdministrativeAdministrative 11 11
TotalTotal 30.030.0 29.129.1
Coal vs. Natural GasCoal vs. Natural Gas CoalCoal
Best Long Term Economic Best Long Term Economic OptionOption
In reality only 4% of the In reality only 4% of the new large power plants in new large power plants in the last 12 years were coal.the last 12 years were coal.
In order to regain public In order to regain public support, new technologies support, new technologies need to be perused.need to be perused.
Advanced Pulverized Coal Advanced Pulverized Coal (PC) (PC)
Integrated Gasification Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle (IGCC) Combined Cycle (IGCC)
FutureGen FutureGen Fluidized Bed Combustion Fluidized Bed Combustion
(FBC)(FBC)
Natural GasNatural Gas Has been the best Has been the best
compromise for Energy compromise for Energy Companies and Companies and Environmentalists in the Environmentalists in the 1990’s.1990’s.
If continued the next few If continued the next few decades will see, for the decades will see, for the first time, the US depend first time, the US depend on foreign nations for its on foreign nations for its fuel used for production fuel used for production of electricity.of electricity.
Capital Investment is Capital Investment is about half $500/ kW about half $500/ kW compared to coal’s $1,000 compared to coal’s $1,000 conventional Coal plant.conventional Coal plant.
Less COLess CO22 due to fewer C-C due to fewer C-C bondsbonds
FutureGenFutureGen
"Today I am pleased to announce that "Today I am pleased to announce that the United States will sponsor a $1 the United States will sponsor a $1 billion, 10-year demonstration project billion, 10-year demonstration project to create the world's first coal-based, to create the world's first coal-based, zero-emissions electricity and zero-emissions electricity and hydrogen power plant..."hydrogen power plant..." President George President George W. BushW. Bush February 27, 2003 February 27, 2003
What is FutureGen?What is FutureGen?
Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle (IGCC)Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle (IGCC) Acts as a Chemical Plant rather than a Coal Acts as a Chemical Plant rather than a Coal
plant.plant. Removes impurities mainly sulfur prior to Removes impurities mainly sulfur prior to
combustion – making exhaust much cleaner.combustion – making exhaust much cleaner. Currently 2 IGCC plants exist in the U.S.Currently 2 IGCC plants exist in the U.S.
COCO22 is only slightly reduced do to the higher is only slightly reduced do to the higher efficiency in IGCC plants 33% to 38%efficiency in IGCC plants 33% to 38%
FutureGen’s Goal is to reach 50% efficiency by FutureGen’s Goal is to reach 50% efficiency by attempting to capture all H2 and use it in Fuel attempting to capture all H2 and use it in Fuel CellsCells
Hopes for Sequestering COHopes for Sequestering CO22 in the ground in the ground
Current IGCCCurrent IGCC
IGCC – How Low Can We IGCC – How Low Can We GoGo
Will it Ever HappenWill it Ever Happen
Requires 15% higher capital Requires 15% higher capital investment.investment.
R&D and Tax incentives.R&D and Tax incentives. No mandatory requirement.No mandatory requirement. FutureGen is still 8 years away FutureGen is still 8 years away
assuming that it stays fully funded.assuming that it stays fully funded. No Private Energy Companies have No Private Energy Companies have
constructed an IGCC plant.constructed an IGCC plant.
The RealityThe Reality U.S. can not agree on its source of energy.U.S. can not agree on its source of energy. Clean Air policies are in limbo.Clean Air policies are in limbo. Future Coal emissions are uncertain.Future Coal emissions are uncertain. Even the oldest coal plants are cheaper to run Even the oldest coal plants are cheaper to run
with a low efficiency than building a newer more with a low efficiency than building a newer more efficient one.efficient one.
Natural gas is currently the compromise taken.Natural gas is currently the compromise taken. By 2025 the U.S. will need 50% more electricity.By 2025 the U.S. will need 50% more electricity. Will the U.S. suffer an electrical energy crisis?Will the U.S. suffer an electrical energy crisis?
http://http://energy.senate.gov/conference/coalconference.cfmenergy.senate.gov/conference/coalconference.cfm http://www.motherjones.com/news/update/2005/05/http://www.motherjones.com/news/update/2005/05/
clean_coal.htmlclean_coal.html http://www.fossil.energy.gov/programs/powersystems/http://www.fossil.energy.gov/programs/powersystems/
futuregen/futuregen/ http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/aer/pdf/pages/sec3_2.pdfhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/aer/pdf/pages/sec3_2.pdf http://www.nei.org/documents/http://www.nei.org/documents/
Nuclear_Powering_Americas_Future.pdfNuclear_Powering_Americas_Future.pdf EPA’s Emissions Scorecard 2001; Prairie State Energy air EPA’s Emissions Scorecard 2001; Prairie State Energy air
permit, Indeck-Elwood draft air permit, and U.S. Department of permit, Indeck-Elwood draft air permit, and U.S. Department of Energy 2002 Annual Energy Outlook.Energy 2002 Annual Energy Outlook.
http://www.appaltree.net/aba/coaltypes.htmhttp://www.appaltree.net/aba/coaltypes.htm http://www.marathon.com/content/released/http://www.marathon.com/content/released/
HM8860_PRB_FactSht_final.pdf#search='Powder%20RiverHM8860_PRB_FactSht_final.pdf#search='Powder%20River%20Basin'%20Basin'
http://www.powerfrontiers.com/coal.htmlhttp://www.powerfrontiers.com/coal.html http://www.chemetron.com/GetFile/http://www.chemetron.com/GetFile/
3D1CC5F1990E83D780256CF700575BF7/3D1CC5F1990E83D780256CF700575BF7/bltn0320.pdf#search='pulverized%20coal‘bltn0320.pdf#search='pulverized%20coal‘
Chemical and Engineering News, “Coal – Can it ever be clean?” Chemical and Engineering News, “Coal – Can it ever be clean?” February 23, 2004February 23, 2004
http://www.unitedconveyor.com/bulletins/images/http://www.unitedconveyor.com/bulletins/images/PowerGenPaper.pdf#search='subbituminous'PowerGenPaper.pdf#search='subbituminous'