The Future of

Certification: 2019 Trend Look Book

3 Introduction

5 Trend 1: Personalization

6 Trend 2: Generation Z

7 Trend 3: Competency-Based Education

8 Trend 4: Education Hacking

9 Trend 5: “New” Collar Apprenticeships

10 Trend 6: Robotization, Machine Learning & Artificial Intelligence

11 Trend 7: Sides Hustles & Gigs

12 Trend 8: The Non-Linear Career Path

13 Trend 9: Certifiers as Professional Development Partners

14 Trend 10: Activism & Resistance

15 Trend 11: Authenticity & Transparency

17 Trend 12: Stealth & Game-Based Assessment

17 Trend 13: Micro-credentials

17 Trend 14: Credentials for Kids

19 Think the Future is WAY out there?

21 About Knapp

Table of Contents

SOCIETAL (demographic, consumer, tech,

education & learning)

HOW WORK IS DONE

CREDENTIALING TRENDS

Trends Impacting Professional Credentialing

INDUSTRY WORKFORCE

INDUSTRY TRENDS

We continuously monitor a wide variety of information and data sources to identify and track

trends in the categories presented below. After analyzing the potential impacts of these trends

on professional credentialing, we identify a select group of trends to feature each year in our

Future of Certification workshops, webinars, and presentations.

Trends for 2019

Societal How Work is Done Credentialing

Personalization Robotization & AI Certifier as PD partner

Gen Z Side hustles & gigs Activism & resistance

Competency-based education Non-linear career journeys Authenticity & transparency

Education hacking Stealth/game-based assessment

“New” collar apprenticeships Micro-credentials

Credentials for kids

In this trend “look book,” you will find a preview of the trends we’ve curated for 2019.

Personalization

Why it Matters

Consumer trends frame expectations for all products/services, including professional credentials, and

personalization has become a consumer expectation. It’s easy to imagine why prospective candidates

might desire a personalized certification that would permit them to depict to employers, colleagues, and

others the unique constellation of knowledge and skills which they possess and which differentiates them

from others. The problem: certification is a standardized, one-size-fits-all product.

It’s who I am

Personalization is the current evolution of a

trend which began as “mass customization” in

the late 1980s. Mass customization enabled

customers to more finely tune manufactured

products to their needs and preferences (e.g.,

selecting the colors for each component of their

Nike sneakers).

Today’s customers desire personalization of

products not just to finely tune these items to

their needs, but also to satisfy their desire to

present to the public what makes them unique.

The products that customers design and

purchase serve as reflections of their identities

and their personal brands.

Deepika Padukone

Named by Time Magazine in 2018 as one of the

100 most influential people in the world

“My choices are like

my fingerprints,

they make me

unique.”

Generation Z

Why it Matters

Gen Z’s characteristics make them great prospects for professional credentials. Given their size and

motivation, Gen Z could become the biggest boost for professional credentials since the Baby

Boomers. However, Gen Z’s personalize everything and spend considerable time curating their

identities and personal brands. Will this generation see value in a standardized, one-size-fits-all

certification?

Old souls in young bodies

Born between 1995 and 2012, the 61 million

members of Generation Z (Gen Z) will make up

40% of the U.S. population by 2020.

These digital natives grew up in an

environment which taught them life could be

challenging and unpredictable, and that

opportunity is not handed to them.

Gen Z’s are highly driven to learn and to

succeed in both their personal and professional

lives.

This generation is far more like Baby Boomers

than the Millennials with whom they are often

confused.

Competency-Based Education

Why it Matters

The focus of competency-based degrees on evaluating competencies which often pertain to specific job

roles (e.g., nurse, IT specialist) makes them both a potential threat and a potential opportunity for

certifiers. If students are required to demonstrate work-related competencies to obtain degrees,

certification could become irrelevant or at best, redundant. Alternatively, some academic institutions have

embedded a certification requirement within their degree programs (i.e., students must attain certification

to receive a degree).

Accumulate competencies – not hours

In competency-based education (CBE)

programs, progress is measured by the

competencies attained rather than by seat time

in the classroom.

Learners typically progress through CBE

programs at their own pace, completing

classes as soon as they’ve mastered the

requisite competencies.

Competency-based transcripts identify specific

competencies which are the expected learning

outcomes and indicate the learner’s level of

mastery of each competency.

Education Hacking

Why it Matters

Developing relationships with, and providing support to, education hackers may prove advantageous

to certifiers since this population has potential as a new target audience. In fact, education hackers

may be even more inclined to pursue certification than those who follow a traditional path because

the certification provides external validation that their “hacked” education was effective.

I did it my way

Cost concerns and doubts about the value of a

degree, in tandem with the availability of low

cost, high-quality online learning opportunities,

have been the impetus for students to “hack”

their education, with the goal of obtaining work-

related knowledge and skills in the shortest

period of time and for the least amount of

money.

Saving time and money are not the only

reasons students hack their education. A

significant advantage of this approach is that it

allows students to take their education into

their own hands, giving them the opportunity to

create a personalized learning program that

best suits their needs and preferences.

“New” Collar Apprenticeships

Why it Matters

Most guidelines for quality apprenticeships specify that the program includes the ability to earn

industry-recognized credentials, such as certification. Thus, these programs, the employers and

academic institutions that implement them and the governmental agencies that recognize

apprenticeships can be pipelines into certifiers’ credentials. As apprenticeships grow in number and

expand into new job roles, so too will this opportunity for certifiers.

A win-win for students and employers

In the United States, apprenticeships have

historically been associated with the skilled

trades and manufacturing jobs.

By contrast, in Europe, apprenticeships are

available for a wide range of in-demand jobs,

including those categorized as “white collar.”

In the last several years, a greater appreciation

has developed for the role which

apprenticeships, particularly “white collar”

apprenticeships, can play in the development

of a qualified workforce in the U.S.

Robotization, Machine Learning & Artificial Intelligence

Why it Matters

As intelligent machines take over work activities, those jobs which remain will be restructured. This

restructuring may require that job incumbents possess different sets of competencies than they do now.

A key question will be whether incumbents can acquire these competencies or whether workers with

different backgrounds (e.g., data scientists) will be needed to fill these roles. As more work is ceded to

machines, certification programs ultimately may need to focus solely on competencies that are uniquely

human (e.g., thinking strategically).

Technology meets human

Technology is transforming not just how we

work (e.g., with mobile devices) but also what

we do in the workplace. Job tasks formerly

performed by humans are being automated.

Some estimate that for 60% of the occupations

that exist today, at least 30% of the work

activities comprising these occupations will be

automated.

As AI continues to evolve, machines will take

over not just routine human functions, but also

more complex cognitive functions.

Side Hustles & Gigs

Why it Matters

Different certifications may be needed for one’s day job and side hustle or different gigs. It’s possible

that in the future, workers will hold more certifications because of these multiple roles. The fluidity of

side hustles and gigs may require that new competencies be acquired and verified on an as needed,

on-demand basis and perhaps, in a non-traditional sequence. Less comprehensive credentials, such

as micro-credentials, may better meet the needs of these workers.

From www.medium.com

Working to a different beat

For purposes of this brief, a “side hustle” is

defined as a means of making money outside of

one’s regular “day job” and the main source of

income. By contrast, a “gig” is freelance work

that serves as the main source of income.

For both side hustles and gigs, workers are

performing multiple job roles, often concurrently.

These jobs may be in different fields and work

settings and may require different competency

sets.

The Freelancers Union estimates that there are

currently 57 million gig workers in the U.S. (35%

of the workforce) and that 61% are engaged in

this type of work by choice (as opposed to being

unable to find full-time work as an employee).

The Non-Linear Career Journey

Why it Matters

Individuals taking non-traditional routes into a job role need products/services that help them get up to

speed quickly, enabling them to acquire competencies specific to their new job role and to receive

recognition for these accomplishments. On the other hand, they could be more accomplished in some

domains than traditional candidates, depending on what path they’ve taken. Like other experienced

professionals, they may be less inclined to pursue certification if they already have a proven track record

in the workplace.

The long and winding road

In the past, there was a standard sequence of

education and work experience through which

one progressed to enter and advance in a

given career. But times have changed.

The traditional, linear career “path” has

become a career “journey” with many twists

and turns along the way.

The journey is not always a straight trajectory

up the career ladder. Workers are purposefully

making lateral moves to gain new experience

and skills and to avoid being “type cast” in a

particular job or work function. The journey also

may not be limited to a single career.

Certifier as Professional Development Partner

Why it Matters

Adding the role of professional development partner to that of standard-bearer enables certifiers to

serve their customers better. After starting their careers and even before, people are seeking to learn

and have this learning recognized with the ultimate goal being to expand opportunities to improve

their lives. Helping customers to address these needs engenders their loyalty and eliminating their

pain points increases certifiers’ competitiveness in an increasingly crowded market.

Treating customers like lifetime partners

Traditionally, certifiers focused primarily on

their role as standard bearer for the profession

by concentrating on the quality of their

standards and exams. Far less time has been

devoted to understanding customers’ needs

and experiences throughout the career journey.

Now, rather than simply asking what must be

done to maintain standards for the profession

and to operate a psychometrically sound

program, certifiers have begun to ask, “What

needs do our customers have related to their

careers and their professional development?”

And “How can we help to fulfill these needs,

whether on our own, in collaboration with

others, or by encouraging others to provide

needed programs and services?”

Activism & Resistance

Why it Matters

Customers and stakeholders now possess the means and motivation to vigorously resist on a

wide scale any certifier actions which they believe to be unfair, unwarranted or detrimental. This

resistance can damage the brand and reputation of a certifier and its credentials and make it

more vulnerable to competitive threats.

Customer power

Customers of for-profit businesses and

stakeholders of not-for-profit organizations

have become activists, demanding that their

voices be heard and that desired changes are

made.

Social media has heightened customers’ power

by providing the tools to amplify their voices.

As seen recently in the certification community,

candidates and certificants will resist if their

voices are not heard and desired changes are

not made.

Authenticity & Transparency

Why it Matters

Certifiers can’t assume that stakeholders, particularly candidates and certificants, will fully trust their

motives, requirements, and processes. Demands for authenticity and transparency are not a

nuisance to be written off lightly with a “there they go again.” These demands are a reflection of

genuine dissatisfaction, which if not addressed, can lead to active resistance among stakeholders,

negative media attention and ultimately, lower candidate volumes and recertification rates.

Keep it real!

In recent years there has been much

discussion of the need for greater authenticity

and transparency from all institutions of our

society.

Authenticity and transparency are more than

“buzz words” though. Seventy-eight percent of

global respondents do not believe that brands

are honest.

Authenticity and transparency influence

customers’ perception of brands and their

buying behavior. Customers’ evaluation of the

authenticity of a brand (and a company) is as

pertinent or more pertinent to the purchase

decision as price and quality.

Stealth & Game-Based Assessment

Why it Matters

These approaches have the potential to improve assessment capabilities, enabling certifiers to

assess competencies and attributes that have proven to be the most challenging to evaluate and

which are the most important to employers and the workplace. And these competencies may become

of even greater importance in the more fluid work environment of the future.

Invisible assessment

“Stealth assessment” is the process of embedding

assessment into the learning experience such that

it is essentially invisible and does not disrupt

learning and engagement. There is no “stop and

test” moment.

Embedded assessments which leverage computer

technology and gaming theory (game-based

assessments) permit the measurement of abilities

not easily evaluated through other means (e.g.,

problem-solving, teamwork).

A particular advantage of game-based

assessment is that playing games requires a

series of choices. Consequently, data is collected

not just on the outcome achieved, but also the

path taken to arrive at the outcome, thus providing

a more multidimensional picture of the test taker.

Micro-credentials

Why it matters

Micro-credentials offer flexibility, providing individuals with opportunities to have their knowledge/skills

validated throughout the career journey, rather than only when they become eligible for a “big”

certification. Additionally, micro-credentials are well-suited to today’s (and tomorrow’s) rapidly

evolving work environment which requires that new skills be acquired and verified quickly and

efficiently -- either to maintain competence in a job role or to transition to a new role.

Small is the next BIG thing

The scope of micro-credentials is narrower

than traditional credentials, such as academic

degrees and professional certifications.

Earners of micro-credentials can assemble a

personalized credential portfolio that uniquely

represents and differentiates them from others

in the field.

Micro-credentials also can be accumulated one

at a time, eventually culminating in the award

of a certification.

Credentials for Kids

Why it matters

There has been a recent trend of more certifiers creating credentials for new college graduates and

those still in college. The interest of even younger audiences in earning credentials presents an

opportunity for certifiers to: (1) build relationships with their target audiences earlier in the customer

journey and (2) foster loyalty to the certifying body.

High School Students Earn

CNA Certification Through

6-Week Summer Program

The desire for credentials has no age

limits

Today, even young children are earning

credentials. The Girl Scouts of the USA offers

cyber-security badges for Brownie Scouts (girls

in grades 2-3).

Increasingly, high school and college students

are graduating with certifications, typically in

fast-growing fields. More than 300,000

Microsoft certifications were earned by public

school students and teachers in just six years. "I was planning on being a nurse when I was older, so this

is very important, because it's a way to get into the medical

field. It's a great opportunity, because I get a chance to be

ahead of the game.“

Javiera Orellana-Barrera, High School Senior

Think the future is still WAY out there?

Think again.

Artificial Intelligence in the Workplace

When discussing the impact of artificial intelligence on a profession, practitioners typically

react by saying, “It will never happen us,” the implication being that the work is too

sophisticated or too “hands on” (literally) to be replicated by a machine. These doubters likely

would be surprised to discover that robots are analyzing data from pre-operative medical

records to guide a surgeon's instrument during surgery, leading to a 21% reduction in a

patient's hospital stay.

DNA Digital Storage

Digital data is being stored on artificial DNA strands. “Capable of storing 215 petabytes (215

million gigabytes) in a single gram of DNA, the system could, in principle, store every bit of

datum ever recorded by humans in a container about the size and weight of a couple of

pickup trucks” (Science Magazine). In January 2019, researchers announced they had

successfully performed data processing operations directly on the DNA using chemical

processes.

The best way to

predict the future

is to create it

Don’t get left behind!

Ready to future-proof your credentials?

Option 1: 2019 Trends Briefing Presentation (face-to-face or via webinar)

A high-level overview of the Look Book trends of greatest interest to your organization.

The presentation includes a handout with thought-starter questions to spark subsequent

discussions between board and staff.

“The Future of Certification trends briefing that Knapp & Associates provided to

PNCB’s board was invaluable! The information was particularly timely as the Board

plans to update our strategic plan in just a few months. We plan to use the thought-

provoking questions from the briefing on our monthly conference calls leading up to

our strategic planning session.”

Andrea A. Burns, MBA, CPA, CAE, CGMA

Chief Financial Officer

Pediatric Nursing Certification Board

Let’s deep dive together into the trends that matter most to YOUR organization.

We offer a variety of experiences to get you started.

Option 2: Future of Certification Workshop

Explore how the 2019 trends could impact your organization’s market, credential and

operations. Available in a half- or full-day workshop facilitated by Lenora Knapp. Features

small group activities designed to engage your participants.

“The Future of Certification workshop stimulated creative thinking about future

possibilities, brought attention to broader trends that could impact the success of

HRCI’s programs in the future, and jumpstarted the exploration of new opportunities

to further enhance HRCI’s success.”

Amy Dufrane, EdD, SPHR, CAE

Chief Executive Officer

HR Certification Institute

Option 3: Bespoke Future of Certification Experiences

Is your organization ready to take massive action? Do you need deeper discussions about

your future? Let’s customize a program to meet your specific needs. It might be a webinar

series, facilitation of an ongoing trend discussion group, ongoing consultation on future-

proofing your credentials or something else that we co-create. The future is calling, are

you ready to answer?

What else does Knapp & Associates International do?

How do you help clients with

existing programs?

• Identify factors hindering success

• Recommend improvements for your

credential portfolio

• Re-design credentials or provide

guidance for discontinuing them

• Quantify the value of your credential

• Guide you in future-proofing your

credential

• Create new types of credentials (e.g.,

micro-credentials)

• Facilitate strategic discussions with staff

and leadership

How do you help clients

considering new programs?

• Differentiate between real vs. illusory

market interest

• Determine IF a credential is the right

answer for your market and organization

• Identify what type of credential best fits

the needs of your market

• Develop the business case to understand

the investment and break-even point

• Evaluate your likelihood of success

• Create a credential design roadmap

• Facilitate strategic discussions with staff

and volunteer leadership

Since 1993, we’ve worked with more than 180 clients to design, redesign and future-proof

their credentialing programs. Our clients choose to work with us because we bring original

thinking to the process – we don’t follow a recipe book and we don’t follow tradition blindly.

This approach makes us unique in the industry. The best way to reach us is to email

info@knappinternational.com.