The future of Artificial Intelligence - timetoact-group.de · Artificial Intelligence will support...

The future of Artificial Intelligence

Dr. Dirk MichelsenManaging Consultant IBM Watson & AI

TimeToAct, Köln, 11.4.2018

Agenda

1. History & future of AI

2. Success factors of AI projects

3. Examples of AI Services & AI projects

4. Recommendation & Summary

Agenda

1. History & future of AI (Man Machine Interaction)




5

The first chatbot came to life

1966

by Joseph Weizenbaum

6

IBM‘s Deep Blue chess computer defeats the reigning world champion Gary Kasparov

1997

by IBM

7

IBM‘s Watson defeats the two champions Ken Jennings and Brad Rutter in Jeopardy!

2011

by IBM

8

Soul Machines & IBM present Rachel

2017

by IBM & Soul Machines

Artificial IntelligenceEntire research area(Learn + NLP + Expert systems + …)

Machine LearningLearning computer systemsunsupervised vs. supervised

Deep Learning as a main component of Machine Learning is a part of Artificial Intelligence. It provides the basis for Cognitive Computing.

Deep LearningAlgorithms in neural networks with multiple levels that automatically recognize concepts and similarities

We are at the beginning of a new era: The cognitive era of AI systems that understand, reason, learn & interact

TabulatingSystems Era

ProgrammableSystems Era

CognitiveSystems Era

1900s 1950s Today...

11

A glimpse into the future of Artificial Intelligence and new technologies

Time

Expe

ctat

ions

Gartner Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies, as of July 2017

InnovationTrigger

Peak of inflatedExpectations

Trough ofDisillusionment

Slope ofEnlightenment

Plateau ofProductivity

more than 10 years

Smart Dust

4D Printing

Artificial GeneralIntelligence

5 to 10 years

Deep ReinforcementLearning

Neuromorphic HardwareHuman Augmentation

5G

2 to 5 years

Serverless PaaS

Digital Twin

Quantum ComputingVolumetric Displays

Brain Computer InterfaceConversational UserInterface

Smart Workspace

Augmented Data Discovery

Edge ComputingSmart Robots

IoT Platforms

Virtual Assistants

Connected HomeDeep Learning

Machine Learning

Autonomous Vehicles

Nanotube Electronis

Cognitive Computing

Blockchain

Commercial UAVs (Drones)

Cognitive Expert Advisors

Enterprise Taxonomy andOntology Management

Software-DefinedSecurity

AugmentedReality

VirtualReality

less than 2 years

Plateau will be reached in

12

A glimpse into the future of Artificial Intelligence and new technologies

Time

Expe

ctat

ions

Gartner Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies, as of July 2017

InnovationTrigger

Peak of inflatedExpectations

Trough ofDisillusionment

Slope ofEnlightenment

Plateau ofProductivity

more than 10 years

Smart Dust

4D Printing

Artificial GeneralIntelligence

5 to 10 years

Deep ReinforcementLearning

Neuromorphic HardwareHuman Augmentation

5G

2 to 5 years

Serverless PaaS

Digital Twin

Quantum ComputingVolumetric Displays

Brain Computer InterfaceConversational UserInterface

Smart Workspace

Augmented Data Discovery

Edge ComputingSmart Robots

IoT Platforms

Virtual Assistants

Connected HomeDeep Learning

Machine Learning

Autonomous Vehicles

Nanotube Electronis

Cognitive Computing

Blockchain

Commercial UAVs (Drones)

Cognitive Expert Advisors

Enterprise Taxonomy andOntology Management

Software-DefinedSecurity

AugmentedReality

VirtualReality

less than 2 years

Plateau will be reached in

AI related

Agenda





Data for AI

14

Health datawill grow

99%

88%unstructured.

Electronics data will grow

99%

84%Unstructured

Connected DevicesInternet of ThingsSmart Home

Manufacturing data will grow

99%

82%unstructured.

Automotivedata will grow

94%

84%unstructured.

Autonomous CarConnected CarElectric Car

Wir sind mitten im Zeitalter der Digitalisierung und Artifical IntelligenceUnstrukturierte Daten wachsen rapide und sind die Grundlage von disruptiven Geschäftsmodellen

44 Zetabytes

Sensors & Devices

Images / Multimedia

Text

Enterprise Data

unstructured

structured

You are here

2010 2020

Data

Beispiele für disruptiveGeschäftmodelle

People for AI

16

Data ScientistComputer Linguist

KI-Trainer

Augmented Reality Designer

In the age of artificial intelligence thousands of new jobs occur that support the shift of technologies

Artificial Intelligence will help us to use our natural capabilitiesin a new and better way

Avatar Designer

Machine Learning Expert

Security Expert

UIMA Modeler

Deep Learning Specialist

Robotics Engineer

Software for AI

18

19

IBM Cloud - the architecture engineered for disruption

Cloud InfrastructureA highly scalable, security enabled infrastructure

DataTools to prepare data for cognitive

AICognitive building blocks for developers

Applications, solutions and servicesTargeted solutions for enterprise businesses

Conversation

Visual Recognition

Discovery

Speech

Compare and Comply

Document Conversion

DLaaS

Nat Language Understanding

Nat Language Classifier

ToneAnalyzer

PersonalInsight

KnowledgeQuery

Cloud Integration

Networking Security Core Enterprise Infrastructure

CognitiveSystems

Virtual Servers File StorageObject Storage

Cognitive Micro-services DevOps Tooling

WatsonOncology

WatsonCyber Security

Weather

IBM Services and Industry Solutions

WatsonVirtual Agent

Watson Explore and Discover

IBM Risk and Compliance

Asset Management (Maximo)

Storage Analytics Deployment GovernanceIngestion

Agenda





Artificial Intelligence will support us with enhanced super forces around our abilities to see, listen, think, talk, and interact. Available through Watson Services.

Read & WriteWatson Conversation Service

1

See & RecognizeVisual Recognition Service

2

Speak & Listen

Text to Speech Service

3

Generate & Navigate Knowledge

Watson Discovery Service

4


1

Vodafone Gigacube | Virtual Product Advisor in GermanWatson Conversation Servicehttps://www.facebook.com/VodafoneGigaCube/


1

Dr. Wolfgang Hildesheim | Dennis Scheuer

AskMercedes | Personal Car AssistantWatson Conversation Service + Augmented Realityhttps://ibm.biz/BdjL6Nhttps://www.ibm.com/de-de/blogs/think/2017/11/30/ask-mercedes-chatbot-statt-betriebsanleitung/


1

https://ibm.biz/BdjL6N


2

Carglass UK | Automatic Quote for RepairWatson Visual Recognitionhttps://autoglassbodyrepair.co.uk/book/v2/ See & Recognize

Visual Recognition Service

2


2

Dr. Wolfgang Hildesheim | Dennis Scheuer

AskMercedes | Personal Car AssistantWatson Conversation Service + Augmented Realityhttps://ibm.biz/BdjL6N https://www.ibm.com/de-de/blogs/think/2017/11/30/ask-mercedes-chatbot-statt-betriebsanleitung/


2

Pre-built Image RecognitionOut of the Box!

40-45


2

Speak & ListenText to Speech Service

3

Integrated AI Reference: ElectronicsPanasonic Smart Home & Smart Mirror

Speak & Listen

Text to Speech Service

3



4

4/12/18



4

Agenda





36

Pick a challenge

Leverage agile approaches to identify meaningful use cases

Identify business outcome for use case

Prove it fast

Identify right data sets to solve the challenge

Demonstrate benefits and outcomes early and often

Gain expertise in pilot projects and prototypes

Plan the program

Build an AI team to centralize competencies and experiences

Develop an AI center of competencies to build awareness, skills & best practice

Set milestones for success

Measure the outcome

Listen, iterate, learn and course correct while continuously learning

Guidelines for your AI Journey

“Customers have control over their Data” with different deployment models

Fully Multi-TenantTypical Data, POCs, POTs,

Demos, etc.

Tenant

Cognitive Services

Runtime

Storage (DB)

Virtualization (Cloud Mgt)

Hardware

Bluemix(IBM SoftLayer Data Center)

Tenant

Confidential Data,Encrypted Data at Rest and In Transit, Production SLAs, Services deliver VM

or Container level isolation

Tenant

Cognitive Services

Runtime

Storage (DB)


Hardware

Bluemix(IBM SoftLayer Data Center)

Tenant

Watson Premium Plans

Dedicated

Shared

Cognitive Services

Runtime

Storage (DB)


Hardware

IBM Softlayer Data Center

Tenant

Watson Standard Plans

Watson Dedicated Plans

Single-Tenant Software and Hardware in Shared Data Center.Strict Isolation Needs,

Data Location Requirements,Enterprise Integration Needs

Summary and Call to Action

38

• AI is the hottest trend in computer science.

• AI helps to reduce cost and allows new business models.

• Therefore you need to start or accelerate your AI business now:• Consult AI experts and run AI projects

• Detail your AI data strategy and AI use case

• Invest in a IBM Cloud Public Subscription and IBM Expert Services

• Learn to use the IBM Watson & AI Platform and test the Watson Studio offering

• Engage with TimeToAct & IBM to identify opportunities

Backup

40

© 2017 IBM Corporation

AI Decision Tree for Data Driven Projects(Goal: Better insights)

Time

Is there a lot ofunused data ?

Is the classificationknown?

Is there (probably)value in the data?

Is a complexclassificationof the data needed?

SupervisedLearningProject

Will the classificationneeded very often?

Yes Yes

Yes

No Data=No Project

No Business Case=No Project

ClassicalAnalyticsProject

One-TimeOutsourcing

to AI&Data Scientist

UnsupervisedLearningProject

Yes Yes

Yes

NoNoNo No No


AI Qualitative Benefits Factors for Data Driven Projects(Goal: Better insights)

Better Insights=

Better Decisions

Increased numberof positive decisions

decreased numberof negative decisions

Increased positiveimpact of decisions

decreased negativeimpact of decisions


AI Decision Tree for Interaction Driven Projects(Goal: Reduced costs)

Are there a lot ofIntellectually simpleinteractions ?

Is the classificationknown?

Is there enoughData to decideautomatically?

Is a complexclassificationof the data needed?

SupervisedLearningProject

Is the classification working all the time?

Yes Yes

NoNo

BusinessCase=No Project

Do Data=

NoProject

ClassicalAutomation

Project

NoNo

UnsupervisedLearning Project

Yes

Yes

Yes

AI + HumanProject

No


AI Qualitative Benefits Factors for Interaction Driven Projects(Goal: Reduced costs)

Reduced Coststhrough

Cognitive Automatization

Reduced number ofhuman activities

Reduced failure rate of human activities

Reduced effort ofhuman activities

45

You have to act now in order to keep up the pace of AI

Make AI part of your own strategy Make AI part of your customer’s journey

Build up a center of competency for Artificial Intelligence and implement AI in your business.

Hire a set of AI Experts.

Pick some challenges, start with small prototypes to gain experience and scale fast.

Implement MVP jointly with IBM Expert Services.

Establish a factory approach to ensure consistency and stability for new AI solutions and adoption.

Invest in a first IBM Cloud Subscription in February

Train a team of business analysts, developers, and AI specialists to support your client’s use cases.

Prototype must be running after days

Realize a lot of smaller initiatives to quickly gain experience and ensure trust of your clients

Customer Care & ChatBot factories are a good start

Build a coherent and holistic AI Program to engage in transformational and innovative projects

Create jointly with your client a AI CoC

And most important beside measuring the outcomes, knowing the chances of AI, and gaining experience

is having fun in exploring new technologies that are a blast and bring huge business potential!

Personal Assistantto chat with


1

“Computers analyze texts”

Computers are able to read

They understand natural language

They can extract the meaning from large documents in a speed where no one could compete


1

48

The sociable humanoid robot Kismet is able to express emotion and recognize cues from interactions with humans

2000

by Cynthia Breazeal

49

Paralyzed woman moves robotic arm with help of a brain sensor

2012

by DLR

50

Soul Machines have partnered with Autodesk to create AVA -Autodesk's Virtual Agent

2018

Four capabilities differentiate Watson from traditional programmed computing systems

51

Reason

Watson reasons. It understands underlying ideas and concepts. It forms hypotheses. It infers and extracts concepts.

InteractWith abilities to see, talk and hear, Watson interacts with humans in a natural way.

LearnWatson never stops learning,getting more valuable with time. Advancing with each new piece of information, interaction and outcome, it develops “expertise.”

Understand

Watson understands like humans do.

EMBODIED COGNITION

IBM SERVICE ORCHESTRATOR

INGESTIONFRAMEWORK

Knowledge Source

REST API‘S

INTERFACE

ANSWER STORE

Frontend

WATSON IOT 3rd Party Service

“Enterprise Ready” cognitive architectureOrchestration Layer

WATSON DISCOVERY SERVICES

VISUAL RECOGNITION

CONVERSATION

Speech-To-TextText-To-Speech

Speak & ListenText to Speech Service

3



4


2


1

Orange Bank | Mobile Only Bank & Banking AdvisorWatson Conversation Servicehttps://www.finextra.com/newsarticle/30460/orange-bank-preps-july-launch

Personal CustomerService Assistant

The Royal Bank of Scotland | Customer Service AssistantWatson Conversation Servicehttp://personal.rbs.co.uk/personal/support-centre.html

EVA – Inter Versicherung | Product Advisor, ZahnzusatzversicherungWatson Conversation Servicehttps://www.inter.de/produkte/gesundheit/krankenzusatzversicherung/inter-qualimed-zr-zahnzusatzversicherung/

Ask MercedesPersonal Car AssistantWatson Conversation Service + Augmented Realityhttps://ibm.biz/BdjL6N

Dr. Wolfgang Hildesheim / Marian Zoll *IBM Confidental*

Early Trend Detection

Challenge• Fraunhofer needs to detect and analyze innovation trends

• <100 scientists need to follow several hundred Tec Trends

• Flexible research based on different focus areas and buyers

Solution• IBM Watson Explorer serves as research tool to „read“

• A role based work place allows superior knowledge

management

Business Value• Detect and understand early important Tec Trends

• Provide leading tool for market research

• „Read“ and evaluate large volumes of unstructured data like for

example technical publications, patent DB`s and product description

60

Small initiatives already increase the productivity drastically and open the chance for huge automation potentials

FAQ self-service is trained relatively fastThe more sophistication is needed, the more services to train and implement are required• Design Thinking for user experience design• Systems integration• Cognitive process automation

Chatbot FAQ

Self-service for simple back-end processes

Cognitive Call Center assistant

Digital Virtual Assistant(next best action)

Semi-automated mid-complex processing (e.g. E-mail response, claims handling, ...)

61

Definitions and categories of AI

Narrow Artificial Intelligence(AI used for specific topics and

processes)

General Artificial Intelligence(AI applicable to any topic)

Super Artificial Intelligence(AI superior to humans)

Time

Inte

llige

nce

Industrial Use

Current Research

Philosophical Speculation

Watson / Presentation Title / Date62

The point in time when Artificial Intelligence becomes bigger than Human Intelligence (AI > HI) and its implications is subject of philosophical discussions.

Nick Bostrom: „Eine Superintelligenz wäre die größte Herausforderung, vor der die Menschheit je gestanden hat.“

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