The Future Danish Energy System - flexibility by system interactions

Professor Poul Erik Morthorst Systems Analysis Division

Long term Vision

22/10- 2014 Morthorst

“ We can both reduce Danish emissions of greenhouse gasses significantly, and make Denmark independent of fossil fuels. This will require a total conversion of the Danish energy system”

- Danish Commission on Climate Change Policy

2

Denmark in Perspective

Source: The Danish Energy Agency

22/10- 2014

0

300

600

900

1990 '95 '00 '05 '10 '12

PJ

Oil Natural gas Coal and coke Renewable energy etc.

Gross energy consumption by fuelAdjusted

Morthorst 3

Morthorst

Constant Energy Consumption in spite of strong growth in GDP

Source: The Danish Energy Agency

22/10- 2014 4

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2012*

Inde

x: 1

990=

100

GDP and Energy Intensity

GDP, 2005-prices

Gross EnergyConsumption

Energy Intensities

0

300

600

900

1990 '95 '00 '05 '10 '12

PJ

Oil Natural gas Coal and coke Renewable energy etc.

Gross energy consumption by fuelAdjusted

… and CO2 emissions

Source: The Danish Energy Agency

22/10- 2014

40

50

60

70

80

1990 '95 '00 '05 '10 '12

Observed Adjusted

Million tonnes CO2

CO2 emissions from energy consumption

Morthorst 5

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

250%

1990 '95 '00 '05 '10 '12

Total Oil

Degree of self-sufficiency

Large Domestic Production of Oil and Natural gas

Source: The Danish Energy Agency

22/10- 2014

0

300

600

900

1990 '95 '00 '05 '11

PJ

Oil Natural gas Coal and coke Renewable energy etc.

Gross energy consumption by fuelAdjusted

Morthorst 6

0,0

0,4

0,8

1,2

1990 '95 '00 '05 '10 '12

Gross energy consumption Final energy consumption

TJ per DKK million GDP (2005 prices, chained values)Adjusted

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1990 '95 '00 '05 '10 '12

District heating Electricity

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

1990 '95 '00 '05 '10 '12

MW

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

Wind power offshore capacity, MWWind power onshore capacity, MWWind power's share of domestic electricity

Three cornerstones in Danish Energy Policy

Renewables

Combined Heat and Power

22/10- 2014

Energy Conservation

01020304050

60

20102011

2012% o

f dom

estic

pow

er c

onsu

mpt

ion

Central power plants' share of domestic power consumption

Morthorst 7

Long term Vision

22/10- 2014 Morthorst

“ We can both reduce Danish emissions of greenhouse gasses significantly, and make Denmark independent of fossil fuels. This will require a total conversion of the Danish energy system”

- Danish Commission on Climate Change Policy

8

What do we need to do....

Source: Climate Commission

22/10- 2014 Morthorst

Main Future Trends: • An Energy System dominated by electricity

• Intermittent sources will have to play a large role

•Wind Power Capacity x 6 • Solar??

• The Resource of Biomass is limited

• Radical change in trans-port system

• Electric cars, hydrogen, bio-ethanol.....?

9

The Government’s Energy Plan

•2020: 50% of Danish Power

consumption is supplied by Wind Power

•2030: No use of coal in Danish Power

plants – no oil furnaces

•2035: All heat and power consumption is supplied by renewables

•2050: The entire Danish energy consumption is supplied by renewables

22/10- 2014 Morthorst

Until 2020 Parliament has agreed on: • Energy Savings • Wind Power

• Offshore 1000 MW • Near Shore turbines 500 MW • More Land based 500 MW

• Biomass in central power plants

10

Morthorst

What is the future of our energy system?

1980

Today

22/10- 2014 11

Morthorst

Load duration curve for electricity consumption

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

1 1001 2001 3001 4001 5001 6001 7001 8001

Hours

MW

Load duration curve for wind power production

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

1 1001 2001 3001 4001 5001 6001 7001 8001

Hours

MW

Load duration curve for electricity consumption minus wind power production

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

1 1001 2001 3001 4001 5001 6001 7001 8001

Hours

MW

This have consequences for the energy system!

01020304050

60

20102011

2012% o

f dom

estic

pow

er c

onsu

mpt

ion

Central power plants' share of domestic power consumption

22/10- 2014 12

Which requirements do we foresee to the power system in the transition phase?

•Need for balancing wind • Interconnectors can do quite a lot • Balancing power is getting more international

•In periods with low wind we will need a back-up • Central and/or decentralised power plants running on

biomass or gas? • Will we politically accept a strong dependence on

interconnectors? • At least one large power plant is needed for black start in

East and West Denmark

•Flexibility in energy demand • Smart energy

22/10- 2014 Morthorst

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1 49 97 145 193 241 289 337 385 433 481 529 577 625 673 721

Hours in January '07

Win

d Pr

oduc

tion/

Pow

er C

onsu

mpt

ion

%

13

Where will we get the heat from?

•Without the central power plants we will have a deficit of heat in the big cities • Heat pumps for district heating • Geothermal energy • Waste heat from industry and incineration plants

•What about the decentralised power plants? • Solar heating • Heat pumps for decentralised use

22/10- 2014 Morthorst 14

Other needs to be fulfilled in the in the transition phase?

•Storage facilities might be required

• Hydrogen is a possibility • Natural gas is probably the cheapest way for longer time

storage

•Reconsider natural gas in combined heat and power after 2035 • Could give robustness to the energy system

•Natural gas is a good substitution for oil in

industry and transport

22/10- 2014 Morthorst 15

22/10- 2014 Morthorst

CH42+C02

UpgradingMethan(CH4)

UpgradingMethan(CH4)

Biomass and waste

International gas grid infrastructure

BiomassdigesterBiomassdigester

Underground storage (salt caverns) Underground storage

(aquifer)

District heating

DH

Biofuelcatalysis

Methanol, DME,syn gasol, H2 etc.

Biofuelcatalysis

Methanol, DME,syn gasol, H2 etc.

PHEV with methanofuelcell

Biomass thermal

gasification

Biomass thermal

gasification

H2+CO

District heating

Biofuel (Methanol, DME, syn gasol etc)

DH

Biofuelcatalysis

Methanol, DME,syn gasol, H2 etc.

Biofuelcatalysis

Methanol, DME,syn gasol, H2 etc.

PHEV with methanofuelcell

Biomass thermal

gasification

Biomass thermal

gasification

H2+CO

District heating

Biofuel (Methanol, DME, syn gasol etc)

International power grid infrastructureInternational power grid infrastructure

District heating

Gasstorages

Peak shavingGasturbine, CC,

Fuelcell etc.

Peak shavingGasturbine, CC,

Fuelcell etc.ElectrolysisAlkalic,

SOEC etc.

ElectrolysisAlkalic,

SOEC etc.

Electricity (at low price) Electricity (at high price)

H2 +(CO)District heating

Gasstorages

Peak shavingGasturbine, CC,

Fuelcell etc.

Peak shavingGasturbine, CC,

Fuelcell etc.ElectrolysisAlkalic,

SOEC etc.

ElectrolysisAlkalic,

SOEC etc.

Electricity (at low price) Electricity (at high price)

H2 +(CO)

Integration of electricity, heat, gas and fuel-production

O2

Industry

Transport

Source: Energinet.dk 16

Two Major Threats for the Green Future

•Too expensive energy supply •Hurt our industrial competitiveness •Will shale gas and oil significantly impact Global

and European energy prices downwards?

22/10- 2014 Morthorst 17

22/10- 2014 Morthorst

Source: DEA, US

18

•Will shale gas be influencing Europe? • Poland experiences are not positive • LNG will flow into Europe, but will it have a

strong impact?

•Will US adventure continue? • Upfront investments take adventage of low

interest rate • Is the gas price sufficiently high to

continously generate new economic viable investments?

• Production is declining faster for shale wells than for conventional ones

Business Opportunity

•Leading developer of new and renewable technologies

•Doing very well on wind power and district heating

•Good international reputation

22/10- 2014 Morthorst 19

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1996 '00 '05 '10 '12

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

Exports of energy technology and equipment

Share of Denmark´s total exports of commodities (right axis)

Billion DKK, current prices

Exports of energy technology and equipment

Conclusions

• The energy system will change drastically over the next 30-40 years

• Preconditions are changing – how will shale gas impact Europe? • Much higher share of wind than today • It is important that we get a robust energy system

• There might be a large role to play for natural gas and

hydrogen in the future energy system • Need for balancing, back-up and storage of intermittent resources • A flexible fuel in industry and transport

• Increase energy system robustness

• Open up for more use of gas in the transition period

• New technologies are needed • Fuel cell electrolysis, thermal gasification… • Where do we get the heat from? Heat pumps, geothermal, solar.... • Complex interactions between power, gas, heat and

transport......

22/10- 2014 Morthorst

Uncertainty and Expectation are the joys of life. Security is an insipid thing.

- William Congreve

20

Thank you for your Attention

22/10- 2014 Morthorst 21

Professor Poul Erik Morthorst The Technical University of Denmark

E-mail: pemo@dtu.dk