The future belongs to plastics and plastics belong to the future

David Cadogan, ECPI Plasttekniske Dager, Oslo, 8-9 November 2006

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Objectives

• The threats to our future• The importance of energy• The role of plastics

– The “in use” phase is a key contributor to the energy efficiency of products

– Contribute significantly to the decoupling of economic growth and energy demand

• Life without plastics• The unbelievers• Summary

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Threats to our future

• Ever increasing use of oil and coal

– Heating

– Electricity generation

– Transport

• Continual increase in level of greenhouse gas emmissions

• Climate change – Now

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Consumption of oil & gas by sector

Heat, electricity and energy

42%

Transport45%

Plastics4%

Chem/petrochem feedstock

4%

Other (non-energy use)

5%

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Plastics – part of our daily life

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Packaging and Construction dominate

• Packaging : 39%• Building & construction : 23%• Automotive : 8%• Electric & electronic : 7%• Furniture : 3%• Agriculture : 2%• Medical : 2%• Others (household, leisure, sports) : 15%Total demand in EU25 (2004) = ca. 43.5 Million

tonnes Source:AJI-Europe

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The importance of energy

• All processes need energy for extraction /production / distribution

• Good property balance of plastics products provides energy savings across their life-cycle

• At end-of life additional energy savings possible via recycling and/or energy recovery

• Renewable energy is a priority (and biomass developments may benefit from synergies with non-renewable waste plastics)

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The importance of total life cycle

• All materials & products consume energy resources– Feedstock & production energy, energy for use-phase

• Materials can frequently save energy resources– Less production energy than alternatives– Less energy demand in the use phase– Energy recovery possible in waste management

• Study by GUA, Vienna - estimate the net-effects of the TOTAL MARKET of plastic products in Western Europe on energy demand and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions during total lifetime, compared to a case in which plastics would not exist.

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Main results of study (Gesellschaft für umfassende Analysen GmbH - GUA, Vienna, 2005)

• Total energy to produce, use and recover plastics in Western Europe is 3.900 Million GJ/a

• Substitution of plastics where possible (81%) would need additional energy of 1.020 Million GJ/a (+ 26%!)

• Additional GHG emissions if plastics were substituted:97 Mt/a or 56% more than in total life cycle of all plastic products today

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Results are equivalent to ...

• 1.020 Million GJ/a additional energy needed for substitution of plastics is equivalent to– 22.4 Million tonnes of crude oil or 43 ultra large crude oil tankers

(a row of 20 km of ultra large crude oil tankers)

– primary fuel input of 10 nuclear power plants with 1.000 MW capacity

– heating and warm water for 40 Million people (half of Germany)

• 97 Mt/a additional CO2 emissions are equivalent to– 30% of the annual Kyoto reduction target for the EU-15

in the period 2000 – 2012 (319 Mt/a)

– CO2 emissions from 90% of private cars in Germany

– all Germans driving 4-5 times per year to the Italian beach and back

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EU Green paper on energy efficiency

• Europe will import 70% of its energy supply by 2030!

– Growing world-wide energy demand– Lack of crude-oil refining capacity– Political instability in sensitive regions

• Europe can save 20% of its energy demand by 2020!

– Changing consumer behaviour– Energy efficient technology– Innovation

looking for internal solution

looking for internal solution

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Plastics contribute to the energy solution

• Plastics production, use and recovery are closely related to energy efficiency by:

– optimized production of raw materials– increasing the energy efficiency of products during the use

phase– contributing to energy efficiency in end-of-life recycling – contributing to energy efficiency through end-of-life

recovery

• Plastics enable eco-efficient use of natural resources and save energy.

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What more about decoupling?

• Limits to what can be achieved by just changing raw materials

• Design and behaviour to improve energy efficiencies are critical factors

• Improving insulation of houses (with any suitable material) makes a dramatic contribution

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Design and changing behaviour

• Innovative products make it possible to cut CO2 emissions and energy consumption:

• 0.3 % of the European fossil fuel consumption in 2003 is used as plastics materials in Automotive – Weight savings resulted in an average

fuel consumption cut of 750 liters per life span of 150, 000 km

– Oil consumption reduced by 12 Mt and CO2 emissions by 30 Mt.

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Benefits of insulation also enable de-coupling (GUA GmbH, Vienna, 2006)

• Study on plastics insulation (EPS/PUR/XPS) shows production energy is recovered after first 4 months use in insulation of outer walls in EU (2004). Over lifetime, energy savings are 150x energy needed for production

• Total use net savings from insulation boards sold in 2004 are:– 290 Million tonnes CO2 over their lifetime and– 5150 Million GJ

• Savings from additional insulation alone (ceilings, floors, window frames) would almost double the savings given above.

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Ultra large crude oil tanker“Jahre Viking” can carry137 Mill litres of crude oilPlastics in use save about 120 Million tonnes of crude oil or 216 ultra large crude oil tankers lined up for 99 kilometres.

… or 10 % of the total final energy

consumption of the EU25 in 2002

How much is 5,150 Million Giga Joules?

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Increase reliance on other forms of energy

• Waste phase of plastics offers significant potential for resource savings

• Extensive landfilling of End-of-Life plastics means a valuable hydrocarbon resource is being wasted.

• Depending on the ability to sort into homogeneous streams of the same type, discarded plastics can be recovered as either material for (mechanical) recycling or used as a source of feedstock and energy.

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The four recovery options of plastic waste

ReuseMechanical

recyclingFeedstockrecycling

Energyrecovery

Landfill

Waste

Consumer products

Plastic materials

Raw material derived from oil/natural gas

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• Plastic products enable significant savings of energy and GHG emissions

• Substitution of plastic products by other materials in current applications would greatly increase the consumption of energy and the emission of greenhouse gases

• Plastic products help use resources in the most efficient way

• Restricting plastics relative growth would result in increased energy consumption

Conclusions

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• Diversion from landfill would increase resource efficiency

• The preferred route for homogeneous and clean plastic waste streams is mechanical recycling

• Waste-to-Energy is an additional resource and is complementary to mechanical recycling

Conclusions

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• It is obvious that plastics can play in significant role in safeguarding the future of our planet. However there is great media coverage of:

• “Natural” is much better than “synthetic”• The Greenpeace pyramid of plastics• Endocrine disrupters (BPA, phthalates, all

chemicals)• Theo Colburn – “Our stolen future”• Increasing asthma, decreasing AGD• Falling sperm counts – chemicals or life style

Conclusions

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• The future belongs to plastics

• Without plastics there will be no future

• Thank you for your patience

Conclusions