The Fundamental digital changes in the world
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Transcript of The Fundamental digital changes in the world
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Essentiel Foresights: Our Digital World by 2020
@gleonhard FuturistGerd.com
Please go to pollev.com/futuristgerd
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“Logic proves, intuition discovers” Henri Poincare
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“The greatest danger in times of turbulence is not the turbulence, itself, but to act with yesterday’s logic”
*Peter Drucker
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“The greatest danger in times of turbulence is not the turbulence, itself, but to act with yesterday’s logic”
*Peter Drucker
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We are going 300 km/h but are looking mostly in the rearview-mirror…
We need both foresight and focus
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HellVen
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Technology’s duality
HellVen is a default fact now Hyper-efficiency is in overdrive Culture clash of HOW versus WHY
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Yes, technology can do almost everything, soon.
But should it?
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“It will become increasingly hard to define whether a new technology is an overall good thing or not; and the question will no longer be whether technology can do something but whether it should be done” (Gerd)
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Technology has not ethics but a human society - and its businesses and industries - depend on it
Melvin Kranzberg “Technology is neither good nor evil. The most we can say about it is this: It has come.”
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Exponentiality
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1 2 4 8 16 32 64…
“How does a person go broke? Gradually, then suddenly”
Ernest Hemingway
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Increasing Scarcity inside
Increasing Abundance
outside
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Image of BP platform via US Coast Guard
Technology is causing exponential societal changes
‘Wait and see’ really means ‘watch me die’ Foresight & imagination becomes critical Most innovation will ‘not be invented here’
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Clip via IBM / Youtube
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Image of BP platform via US Coast Guard
Tesla: the first truly exponential car company?
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Image of BP platform via US Coast Guard
Tesla’s reverse approach to what used to be ‘normal’
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Digitization and Automation
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The automation of everything?
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The automation of jobs: huge changes are imminentLive demo of Quartz interactive graphic
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The automation of jobs: huge changes are imminentON YOUTUBE:
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Google Now is only the very tip of the AI iceberg: automation, real-time data, inter-connectivity, technology in the background,
NUIs / voice / gesture control, intelligent digital assistants…
Google Now via Youtube
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Digitization changes everyone/thing -Business models collapse or reboot
Toxic assumptions must be discarded Consumer empowerment is dramatic, contagious, non-negotiable…cruel…? ‘Trying to fax a cat’ is deadly (music!)
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http://frankdiana.wordpress.com/2014/04/03/the-smart-home/
“You ain’t see nothing yet” - Exponential changes are ahead
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What happened to media will happen to all digitally contestable businesses: hyper-efficiency
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Previously closed, walled or protected businesses are being cracked open by software innovators
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Data becomes a key economic driver, globally Human jobs will focus on human-only capabilities Huge boom in software, AI, interfaces
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Big Data Big Brother
Privacy
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Image of BP platform via US Coast Guard
Data drives our future (literally)
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Data economy will be regulated just like oil and fossil fuels * Expect a constant back and forth of public, collective common values versus private and individual values Global data standards are sorely needed (and already emergent!)
Data really is the new Oil:)
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Data is the new oil, broadband and software are the pipelines, mobile devices are the gas-stations
Video via IBM on IoT (Youtube)
Should ‘big data’ be regulated just like ‘big oil’?
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“Technology is not really about
hardware and software any more. It’s really about the mining and use of
this enormous data to make the world a
better place” !
Eric Schmidt, Google’s executive chairman, told an audience of MIT students
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!
“Big business decisions will be made not be experts or intuition but by big data and predictive analytics” Virginia Rometty, CEO and chairwoman of IBM http://www.stuff.co.nz/technology/digital-living/9549067/To-2014-and-Beyond
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‘Code Halos’
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Inevitable?
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Image of BP platform via US Coast Guard
“All that happens must be known” - Dave Eggers
http://flic.kr/p/97PVQi!
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Ignorance is dangerous, but so is the obsession with omniscience
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Expect increasing backlash against ‘over-connectivity’ Significant ‘trust pressure’ on US-based ‘big internet’ co’s Splinternets / Spyinternets could thwart purpose of ‘Net
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Consumers are finally starting to feel the heat…
Secure, private, safe offerings will do exceedingly well Hereto trusted ‘internet darlings’ may become the next (*old) Microsoft i.e. ubiquitous but very much un-liked ‘I’ll do anything to get free & convenient services’ is over
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Image of BP platform via US Coast Guard
Expect more ‘Datawars’
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Beware: technology works both ways…
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“Search engines won’t wait for you to ask for information. They will know you like a
friend, aware of your concerns and interests at a detailed level” Ray Kurzweil
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Total digitization, ubiquitous connectivity, machine intelligence and ‘very very big data’ will require new norms, rules and markets - and new social contracts
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0
25
50
75
100
B4 Internet 1st digital wave Now Tomorrow?
Power of Technology Privacy & Anonymity
The coming balancing act
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Photo by 900hp - http://flic.kr/p/9MTJpf
Key challenges: security, standards, ethics, new social contracts, finding consensus
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Human-Machine Futures
AI & Robots
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Our mobile devices: predictive. realtime. contextual. intelligent
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Increasing outsourcing of ‘thinking’ to software, apps, devices, platforms Deep-AI emerges as key dystopian theme Humanness will matter increasingly… IF….
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http://www.flickr.com/photos/bobsfever/7034556759/in/photostream/
“Machines are for answers, humans are for questions” (Kevin Kelly)
Dramatic shifts in HR, work, jobs Complete re-set of corporate structures (silos)
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A whole new industry emerges Technological unemployment Huge impact on education
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The interface / UI revolution has barely started
Voice control will replace typing Automated language translation is going mainstream
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Ambient Information & Predictive Services
where is this going?
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Yes, technology can do almost everything, soon.
But should it?
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Machine Thinking
Business is not a machine (neither are business people) Buying decisions are not really rational Most big data is rather dumb when it comes to actual human relevance
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Increased magnitude of unintended consequences
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Just imagine…
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Jobs and Work
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The robots are coming, for sure
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Global changes to work, jobs and employment
Less people needed, across the board Many new jobs about to be invented Sooner or later, end of ‘working for a living’ Redefinition of capitalism (a minor challenge)
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Business Intelligence (BI): going warp-drive via smart software
10 good people + software and AI will do the work of 100 people just a few years ago ‘Data hubris’ becomes a major problem (‘machine thinking’ will prove deadly) It’s less and less about mere analysis and more aboit sense-making and data-fueled intuition
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The future of jobs, work and education: the return of human-only skills
Subjective reasoning Imagination Negotiation Questioning Empathising Storytelling Connecting Creativity
Design
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http://www.flickr.com/photos/bobsfever/7034556759/in/photostream/http://www.flickr.com/photos/7468552@N08/4044554793
According to a Sept 2013 Oxford study, occupations that involve complex perception and manipulation tasks,
creative intelligence tasks, and social intelligence tasks are unlikely to be substituted by computer capital over the next decade or two. So the key to defeating robots - in the
movies and in real life - is doing what they can't. !
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
http://www.entrepreneur.com/
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“Currently, education is mostly about preparing people for life
in a 20th century factory”
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The Global Brain or.. Drain?
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Will social media, hyper-connectivity,
cheap devices, big data & AI,
wearables and the ‘Internet of Things’ create
a kind of Global Brain?
Seriously increased velocity Hyper-collaboration is default Outliers increasingly use ‘backdoors’ to disrupt incumbents
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(Almost) anyone from anywhere could be your next biggest competitor BRIC / CIVETS etc will take the lead
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Possible? Desirable?
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Transformation
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An era of rapid Digital Transformation
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How many components of your business are digitally contestable ?
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“How does a person go broke? Gradually, then suddenly”
Ernest Hemingway
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10x the ‘human Internet’ - are you ready?
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“The greatest danger in times of turbulence is not the turbulence, itself, but to act with yesterday’s logic”
*Peter Drucker
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The coming Sustainability
Default
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RSRC: Responsible Sustainable Regenerative Circular
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Stock-market logic will soon re-boot to actually reward sustainable, renewable, responsible businesses (3BL) Technology will continue to make giant leaps in efficiency Renewable energy, food and water will become the biggest business opportunities ever (‘green business’ revolution)
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Heading towards a circular economy
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Communications Media
Marketing Advertising
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“Software is eating the world” (Marc Andreessen)Inevitable transfer of value from traditional companies to software companies
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Films, TV, Music, Print: from Unit Economy to Access Economy
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Broadcast
Cable & Satellite
Cloud (+ social + mobile)
First, content & entertainment, then everything else
Cloud computing is the next mobile (irresistible) Data MYning becomes a key trend (user control) Cloud-readiness is a major driver of success
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Social Media-Telecom-eCommerce-BroadcastersFacebook is paying more than double its annual revenue for a chat
program that has little revenue. The purchase price is slightly more than the market value of Sony Corp. "Facebook is the leading global social-sharing utility. Now, it has a significant opportunity to be the leading global communications utility," RBC Capital Markets said in a note.
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Ubiquitous low-cost connectivity will bring…Even more market fragmentation Less mass-markets, more hits in niches Brands can increasingly ‘go direct’ Big Data moves centre-stage Privacy is major concern #datawars Digital hyper-efficiency everywhere Digitally-native disruption abounds
Even more market fragmentation Less mass-markets, more hits in niches Brands can increasingly ‘go direct’ Big Data moves centre-stage Privacy is major concern #datawars Digital hyper-efficiency everywhere Digitally-native disruption abounds
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Photo by iamos - http://flic.kr/p/5uUFSo
Media pre SoLoMo: provide mousetraps for advertisers
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Global Paradigm Shift in Marketing | Advertising | Public Relations | Branding
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Surveillance-based advertising is killing the golden goose
Re-invention of $1 Trillion industry Era of ‘free at all cost’ is ending
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Total customer empowerment. Dialog. Conversation.
Increasing transparency (hopefully not a ‘tyranny’) End of silos in and outside of organisations Everything is CRM (marketing IS the product)
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Reason to Buy - not Force to Buy
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“We give the greatest subjective value to things that are relatively scarce”
(Ronald Inglehart)
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Increasing Scarcity inside
Increasing Abundance
outside
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Offline Luxury
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Image of BP platform via US Coast Guard
Being in the moment…
http://www.slideshare.net/oscaruro/jobs-of-the-future-31332319?qid=0d12d81d-3ed7-421d-8ff2-3356be128bdd&v=default&b=&from_search=8
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‘Offline’ will be the new luxury
This is not a yes or no issue, but an ‘it depends’ issue ‘Addictive substances’ will and should be regulated New social contracts will emerge i.e. ‘digital ethics’
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FOMO …not sustainable
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Quantified self or… qualified slave?
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Is ‘seeing everything’ really desirable?Most of the value creation passes from us to the platforms that we empower
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Offline luxury is probably un-desired in a global Data and AI-driven world Hyper-convenience is truly addictive
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Business Models
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Connectivity, most information and content as well as many digital goods become like water, electric power or… air
Capitalism will become circular ie ‘renewable’ Value must be build around the core, all the time ‘New Generatives’ as well as new metrics required
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The ‘sharing economy’ is real but beware of ‘Jerk-Tech’ and Data-Hubris
http://diamandis.abundancehub.com/
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“I love Uber, the ridesharing app that connects people who need rides with drivers. Instead of my normal $35 taxi ride to LAX, an UberX car takes me for about $11. Uber is one of a new generation of dematerializing,
demonetizing and democratizing technologies that's disrupting the status quo” Peter Diamantis
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‘Beyond the Pills’ (just add your own product type here)
Novartis CEO Jimenez: “I really believe that in the future, companies like Novartis are going to be paid
on patient outcomes as opposed to selling the pills” Pharmas are looking to move to a range of value-
added services under the moniker beyond-the-pill – and most of those new services are digital.
“Beyond-the-pill is a logical and inevitable path forward for all”
Creating value by embedding products into a holistic offering with the aim to improve patient
outcomes and provide tangible competitive advantages.”
Such holistic offerings include telehealth services, wellness programs, and improved chronic
disease management over patients’ lifetimes. http://www.forbes.com/sites/jasonbloomberg/2014/08/15/digital-transformation-moves-pharma-beyond-the-pill/
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Ethics in a digital world
Some digital heresy
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Technology has not ethics but a human society - and its businesses and industries depend on it
Melvin Kranzberg: “Technology is neither good nor evil. The most we can say about it is this: It has come.”
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Businesses must become extremely data-smart & technologically super-intelligent
- and even more extremely human
In a recent lecture at Harvard University neuroscientist Jeff Lichtman, who is attempting to map the human brain, has calculated that several billion petabytes of data storage would be
needed to index the entire human brain. The Internet is currently estimated to be 5 million terabytes (TB) of which Google has indexed roughly 200 TB or just .004% of its total size.
http://www.industrytap.com/knowledge-doubling-every-12-months-soon-to-be-every-12-hours/3950
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Digital Obesity. Group-Think. Filter Bubbles.
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Soon, it will be a lot less about if technology can do something, but why, who and when it should be done
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Image of BP platform via US Coast Guard
Algorithm ‘Humarithm’☯
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Unintended consequences explode
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FuturistGerd.com to download this PDF, later today
Gerdtube.com (YouTube) to find out more
Thanks for your attention!@gleonhard