The Fulbright Scholar Program at UNL · PDF fileThe Fulbright Scholar Program at UNL: ......
Transcript of The Fulbright Scholar Program at UNL · PDF fileThe Fulbright Scholar Program at UNL: ......
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September 9, 2011
Prof. Weber A. Neves do Amaral, PhD
ESALQ – USP
The Fulbright Scholar Program at UNL:Bioenergy systems in Brazil: challenges and future perspectives
Objetives of this short Fulbright Scholar Program
Mid term:
• Understand the key drivers of agriculture innovation – using a comparative
approach – USA and BR
• To what extend these innovations in the feedstock production and conversion
technologies are towards or contribute to sustainability
• What constraints their adoption or deployment?
Long term:
• Contribute to a long term research agenda between these countries and
organizations, addressing the findings and gaps of the mid term goals
assessment2
UNIVERSIDADE DE SÃO PAULO
Armando Sales Oliveira Campus – 19 schools
5 schools in metropolitan São Paulo
1st place in Latin America
70k students and ca. 7,2k faculty
1st place in Brazil
94th place in the world*
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• The total fuels market is very large and growing at 3-4% per year
• Biofuels are ca. 3.0% of total consumption of gasoline and diesel. Conservative
projections estimate at least 5.0-7,0% by 2020.
• The profitability of ethanol is reinforced by increasing prices of fossil fuels; current oil
reserves are reducing and new ones are being discovered at higher cost sites (e.g. deep
waters, tar sands, etc)
• Environmental concerns are also pushing demand for biofuels (e.g.: GHG)
• US is producing ethanol from corn, while ethanol from sugar cane is made in BR.
• Biodiesel economic feasibility yet to be proven at current stage of development without
tax incentives and considering projected oil prices.
• But there are new developments towards value added bioproducts, using the
biorefineries as a business framework
• Increase demand for food, fuel, feed will demand more from less and more efficient and
sustainable production systems
• August 17, 2011 the US-Brazil Strategic Energy Dialogue was launched
GLOBAL BIOENERGY
Major international drivers are pushing for a very favorable
global bioenergy markets…. But some fundamental questions remain to be answered
Yesterday President Obama said that
building the the next generation of
manufacturing, including advanced
biofuels, is “how America can be number
one again”.
How? Which feedstock? Where? How
much? Which winning technologies?
Oil dependent economies
and global economy recover
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Roles and
functions
of government,
private sector
and NGOs
Gasoline/Dies
el
Querosene
Food
Ethanol
& biodiesel
Jobs
WindEnergy
demand
GHGs
Nuclea
r
Oil reserves
Economic
growth
+
-
Hydro
Hydrogen
Trends in
consumption
Global
awareness
Environment
al
taxes &
policiesEnergy
supply Land use
patternsNative
vegetation
and
forests
Quality of
jobs
Diversification Biodiversity
Climate
change
Food
safety
Quality of
life
and
livelihood
s
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Biofuels: beyond agriculture production –
a system dynamics complex of multiple interactions
INTRODUCTION
Sustainability:
Economic, energy and climatic policies integrated
Sustainability:
social awareness and targets
Sustainability:
A fragmented agenda;
Green investments not viable
Business as usual scenario
Sustainability:
countries without clear targets - GHG
Market: effective policies,
but not sufficient
Fiscal policies still not business friendly
Market: higher growth rate with strong pressure
on the resources
Higher oil prices
Market:
higher growth rates
Diversification of the energy matrix
Market: same growth rate:,
market regulations driven by government
Failure of a common international agenda:
M
S
Future challenges
• Land use and availability
• Environmental framewokrs and
biodiversity conservation
• IP rights
Land availability:
A) Land use changesRegion dependentStringency of environmental frameworks and levels of compliance
B) Optimization of current land use
Yield and productivity potential - challenges
• Market size
• Levels of investment in applied research
• Crop dependent – learning curve and new agricultural frontiers
• Level of genetic improvement and the role of biotechnology
Ex: application of synthetic biology for novel crops and traits
ca. 10 years for full deployment
An issue of concern:
How to leverage existing crop productivity?
Sugar cane – 88 ton/ha – (45 - 120 ton/ha)
Eucalyptus – 44 m3/ha/year – (27 – 110 m3/ha/year)
How?
Precision farming and logistics
New tools for monitoring productivity: nutrient efficiency and water
VERACEL Cia
How to reconcile feedstock production and conservation strategies?
Environmemtal framework and the Brazilian Forest Code
Several certification schemes being discussed for bioenergy
Eucalyptus plantationAtlantic forest
One of the main targets of this protocol is related with the anticipation of sugar
cane burning regime from 2017 to 2014 in flat areas, and from 2031 to 2017 in
slope areas*
* Are considered sloping areas, when the inclinaiton is more than 12%
Source: Única 2
Mecanized areas Non-mecanized areas
% o
f h
arv
este
d s
uga
rcan
e w
ith
ou
t b
urn
Environmentally friendly protocol of the sugarcane industry :
the Green Protocol of the Secretary of Environment – São Paulo State - 1/2
The main resolutions and suitable areas for planting sugarcane are shown
below:
• Protect the areas with original native vegetation
and the prohibition of the planting in the Amazonia,
Pantanal e Bacia do Alto Paraguai biomes;
• Sugarcane planting in areas where the use of
water is minimum as possible (rain feed primarily);
• A draft law project to recommend the growth of the planting
based in the food safety without harming food
production;
• Look for new places to produce sugarcane, using
pasture areas or those occupied by cattle raising.
Source: EMBRAPA 2
Sugarcane zoning and revision of the Forestry Code (1965)
Subtitles:
-Suitable areas
- Amazonia, Pantanal
and Bacia do Alto
Paraguai biomas
Pasture
Degraded Area of Permanent Preservation (APP)
Eucalypt
Restored APP
Environmental services
Ecological tax (ICMS ecologico and Pro-ambiente)
REDD and market instruments
Alianca Brasileira para Mudancas Climaticas – several stakeholders
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...
Evolution of productivity of Brazilian ethanol:
•Continuous investment in R&D – mainly in the public domain x
•situation of IP rights to secure long term investments in BR –
•For business the levels of protection are low…
IP rights – another issue of concern
27Source: AGRIANUAL / IDEA
Traditional
Frontier
New frontier
PA
1-0.6
Capricornia
Equator
Location of mills and sugarcane production
MA
3-2
TO
1-0,2MT
12-13
NE
41-56
BA
5-6
SP
189-266
GO
23-19
MS
21-12
PR
31-35
RJ
11-7
MG
37-32 ES
6-4
RS
2-1
Nr mills – M ton
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Carbon
credits
7 M ha
72 thousand growers
400 mills & distilleries
(Operation & projects)Harvest
400 M tons
ETHANOL22 billion liters
SUGAR30 million tons
BAGASSE
Bioplastic
Ethanol
Food
PharmacyLysine
Derived
Sugar cane value chain: where are the opportunities for bio-products?
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Total production of sugar cane increased significantly with the
deployment of the ethanol vehicles
The evolution of the Brazilian ethanol industry – M tons of processed sugar cane
Source: Datagro
Last Strategical
plan to the
sector:
Próalcool
Ethanol car
increase of
demand
Stagnation of the sector
Change the mix of production
from ethanol to sugar
Release the prices
of ethanol
Flex fuel car
sector boom
BRAZIL BIOFUELS
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Evolution of light vehicles production and Total Brazilian Fleet – „000 vehicles
Source: ANFAVEA; VPB estimates
Gasoline
FFV
Ethanol
CNGDiesel 1,045
1,385
1,446
2,752
14,797
21,425
BRAZIL BIOFUELS
Flex fuel cars account for more than 80% of total cars produced in Brazil
80
%
Brazilian Fleet (2007)
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Energy balance of ethanol production from different feed stocks
Sugar cane is an important feedstock to produce ethanol –
first and advanced generations
Source: Petrobrás, Coehlo/Cenbio
GLOBAL BIOFUELS
En
erg
y o
ut
pu
t in
pu
t ra
tio
Raw materialProduction /ha
(kg)
Quantity of
Ethanol /ha
Energy Output/
Energy Input
• Sugar Cane
• Corn
• 85.000
• 10.000
• 7.080 liter
• 4.000 liter
• 8.3
• 1.3 - 1.8
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Sugarcane Subar beet Wheat straw Corn Wood
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Energy cane
Note: 2nd generation is equivalent to cellulosic
Source:Unicamp, Canavialis
Challenges
Today, only 1/3 of the energy content of the sugarcane plant is used
to produce ethanol. 2nd generation biofuels (hydrolysis and
fermentation) might cover this gap, but with what costs?
1 ton of sugar cane stem
Energy (MJ)
• 150kg of sugar
• 135 kg stem fibers (bs)
• 140 kg leaves fibers (bs)
Total
2500
2400
2500
7400 (1.25
boe)
Technology
Conventional
Hydrolysis
Total
2005 2015 2025
l/tc
85
-
85
l/ha
6.000
-
6.000
l/tc
100
14
114
l/ha
8.200
1.100
9.300
l/tc
109
37
146
l/ha
10.400
3.500
13.900
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Sugarcane bagasse complements the hydro-electricity generation in thewinter
Fonte: UNICA – Etanol e bioeletricidade
Sugarcane and its contribution to the energy matrix/month - 2008
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Jan Fev Mar Abr Mai Jun Jul Ago Set Out Nov Dez
EnergiaNatural
Novas Hidrelétricas Biomassa
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Is biodiesel a social or an energy program?
80% soybean dependent
Over the targets – 4%
The role of Petrobras – Brazil Oil Company
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Biofuels initiatives in Brazil cover many 1st and 2nd Gen pathways
for gasoline substitutes.... The Amyris case and Braskem investments
Raw
Material
Preparation
Process
Feedstock
Conversion
Process I
Conversion
Process II
Biofuel
Product
Separation into cellulose,
hemicelullose and lignin
components
Cellulosic and hemicellulosic
material
(crops, waste)
Cellulose conversion to sugar
via saccharfication
(hydrolysis);
thermal, chemical and
biological processes applied
Special fermentation for 5-6
carbon sugars produced by
saccharification
Cellulosic
Ethanol
Synthetic Biology Fuel
SubstitutesSyn-
gasolineHydrogen
Gasification of raw material through
heat
Syngas
(e.g., CH4, CO, CO2, N, H)
Fisher-Tropsch Process
Water Gas
Shift &
Separation
Catalysed Synthesis
BioButanolEthanol
Distillation and
evtl. removal of
water
Fermentation
to ethanol,
using yeast &
other
microbes
Conversion to
6-C-sugar
(high-
temperat.
enzyme)
6-carbon
sugar
Starchy crop
parts
(kernels)
Sugar crops, e.g.
- beet
- cane
Grain crops,e.g.
- wheat
- corn
Sugar extraction
Harvesting
starch,
separating,
cleaning,
milling
Genetically engineered
microbes produce fuel product
via metabolic pathways
N/A
Methanol
Fermentation
using A.B.E
Process
Energy Crops Agricultural
Waste
Forest
Residues
Municipal Waste (MSW)
Separation into cellulose,
hemicelullose and lignin
components
Cellulosic and hemicellulosic
material
(crops, waste)
1st Generation
2nd Generation
Key:
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Potential feedstocks for biorefineries
Other feedstocks for advances biofuels
Fonte: McMillan, 1994; Wood for Alcohol Fuels, 2002; Saad, 2005; IBGE; CONAB; SBS
6,600
11,549
22,933
3,919
4,000
2,000
115,000
72,600
64,029
80,747
2,937
94,600
38,700
460,000
9 a 13
5 a 8
3 a 4
4 a 6
22 a 24
18 a 20
3 a 5
Area[000 ha]
Source of feedstock Production
[000 t/year]Produtivity[t/ha.year]
Proprieties (%)
lignin celullose hemicelullose
Potential
20
15
15 a 25
23 a 35
20
28
10 a 30
41
30 a 45
30 a 40
36 a 40
45
42
25 a 40
25
50 a 35
25 a 35
-
30
27
35 a 50
High
Medium
Medium
Medium
High
Medium
Low
6,600 72,600 9 a 13 26 2837 HighCane
Straw
Bagasse
Corn stover
Soybean
stover
Rice stover
Eucalyptus
residues
Pine
residues
Pastures
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Fund suppliers
Feedstock/Conversion
Suppliers
2nd
Generation
Biofuels
• Research Institutes
• Universities
UFPE
Brazil is establishing a Cellulosic Ethanol cluster with a significant number of players...
NON-EXHAUSTIVE
Proposal Market Entry
Almirall 060929
Integrated business model
Operational efficiencyDeployment phase
...
Portfolio review of existing platforms
Implementation
complexity
High
NPV
[$ MM]
Low
High
Low
An example of future approach for research
The Biorefinary Business Models (BBM) can be assessed based
on their long term value creation potential
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Biorefinaries, attraction of capital for innovation and
densifying knowledge frameworks…
Business
pipeline
Universities
Academia Private Government
Foundations
Innovation
agencies
Innovation centers
R&D
Agencies
Incubators
Tech parks
Brazil
International
exchange
•Internationalpartners
•Advisors
•Partners’ networks
•Media
•Business partners
•Seminars
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Food
Production
Systems
Bioenergy
Production
Systems
Environmental
services
• Managing landscapes sustainably
• Multiple products with value added and environmental services
• Increase farmer´s income
• Improve GHGs balances of current ethanol´s benchmark
• Reduce the dependence on fossil fuels while contributing to the
production of other goods and services
Food systems
Energy systems
How to integrate
these systems at landscape level?
Remaining challenges and discussions
Sustainable production of any feedstock (or biomass) is vital for the
viability of the bioenergy/bioeconomy based products and services
How?
Where?
With whom?
When?
Bioenergy and biofuels are not the panacea to solve all energy
problems, but can effectively contribute towards a low carbon
economy scenario in the present and in the near future.
Thanks
• Contact info
Weber Antonio Neves do Amaral
Email: [email protected]
Cel phone: 402 - 4841127