The Food Price Spikes of 2008/09 and 2010/11: Country-Level Impacts and Policy Responses in Africa...
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![Page 1: The Food Price Spikes of 2008/09 and 2010/11: Country-Level Impacts and Policy Responses in Africa Pedro Conceição, Sebastian Levine and Zuzana Brixiova.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062619/5519903055034643068b45cc/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
The Food Price Spikes of 2008/09 and 2010/11:
Country-Level Impacts and Policy Responses in Africa
Pedro Conceição, Sebastian Levine and Zuzana Brixiova
African Economic ConferenceAddis Ababa, October 2011
![Page 2: The Food Price Spikes of 2008/09 and 2010/11: Country-Level Impacts and Policy Responses in Africa Pedro Conceição, Sebastian Levine and Zuzana Brixiova.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062619/5519903055034643068b45cc/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Overview
•Background•Conceptual framework•Impacts and vulnerabilities•Policy responses•Conclusions
![Page 3: The Food Price Spikes of 2008/09 and 2010/11: Country-Level Impacts and Policy Responses in Africa Pedro Conceição, Sebastian Levine and Zuzana Brixiova.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062619/5519903055034643068b45cc/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Background – some stylized facts
![Page 4: The Food Price Spikes of 2008/09 and 2010/11: Country-Level Impacts and Policy Responses in Africa Pedro Conceição, Sebastian Levine and Zuzana Brixiova.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062619/5519903055034643068b45cc/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Differences between the two price spikes
1. Type and number of commodities affected
2. Limited pass-through of global to local prices in 2010/11 relative to 2007/08
3. Varied policy responsesReduced fiscal space after the global financial crisis limited macro policy responses in 2010/11
![Page 5: The Food Price Spikes of 2008/09 and 2010/11: Country-Level Impacts and Policy Responses in Africa Pedro Conceição, Sebastian Levine and Zuzana Brixiova.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062619/5519903055034643068b45cc/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Conceptual framework
![Page 6: The Food Price Spikes of 2008/09 and 2010/11: Country-Level Impacts and Policy Responses in Africa Pedro Conceição, Sebastian Levine and Zuzana Brixiova.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062619/5519903055034643068b45cc/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Conceptual framework (cont.)
![Page 7: The Food Price Spikes of 2008/09 and 2010/11: Country-Level Impacts and Policy Responses in Africa Pedro Conceição, Sebastian Levine and Zuzana Brixiova.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062619/5519903055034643068b45cc/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Impact: Food price vulnerability
![Page 8: The Food Price Spikes of 2008/09 and 2010/11: Country-Level Impacts and Policy Responses in Africa Pedro Conceição, Sebastian Levine and Zuzana Brixiova.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062619/5519903055034643068b45cc/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Impact: Price pass through
![Page 9: The Food Price Spikes of 2008/09 and 2010/11: Country-Level Impacts and Policy Responses in Africa Pedro Conceição, Sebastian Levine and Zuzana Brixiova.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062619/5519903055034643068b45cc/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Impact: Consumer prices
![Page 10: The Food Price Spikes of 2008/09 and 2010/11: Country-Level Impacts and Policy Responses in Africa Pedro Conceição, Sebastian Levine and Zuzana Brixiova.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062619/5519903055034643068b45cc/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Impact: Household welfare
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Policy responses – Monetary policy
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Policy responses – Survey of RMCs
• In 2011, UNDP RBA conducted a survey of national policy responses through its country offices;
• Total of 33 countries included in responses
• Policy responses adopted by SSA countries in 2007/08 and 2010/2011 are classified according to:
▫overall type (macro, micro/social at the household, level and structural/sectoral)
▫channels by which they operate (supply/demand),▫ likely timing of their impact (short vs. long term).
![Page 13: The Food Price Spikes of 2008/09 and 2010/11: Country-Level Impacts and Policy Responses in Africa Pedro Conceição, Sebastian Levine and Zuzana Brixiova.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062619/5519903055034643068b45cc/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Policy responses – 2007/08 vs. 2010/11
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Policy responses (% of SSA sub-groups)
2007/08 2010/11 2007/08 2010/11 2007/08 2010/11Oil-exporters MICs, non-oil LICs, non-oil
0
20
40
60
80
100Cut of import tariffs Export restritions or ban
Price controls VAT or sales tax cut
Market (macro) interventions, by SSA sub-groups (% of countries)
2007/08 2010/11 2007/08 2010/11 2007/08 2010/11Oil-exporters MICs, non-oil LICs, non-oil
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90Investment in rural infrastructureBudget allocation to agricultureLand lease arrangements
Structural and sectoral measures, by SSA sub-groups (% of countries)
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Conclusions
•Similarities between the two price spikes in 2007/08 and 2010/11.
•Key differences: Different commodities affected, limited pass-through, different policy responses.
•Between African countries also significant heterogeneity reflecting differences in exposure, vulnerability, policy space and coping strategies.
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Conclusions (cont.)
•Invest in agriculture, raise productivity and mitigate impacts of climate change
•Facilitate supply responses, deepen markets (cross-border trade, RD, infrastructure)
•National and regional policy coordination (both on structural – reserves – and macro policies)
•Social protection to build resilience and raise productivity
•Reduce domestic market volatility (credit, storage, insurance, commodity exchanges)