THE FIFTH KONDRATIEFF WAVE: THE FIFTH KONDRATIEFF WAVE:

THE FOSSIL FUELS APOGEETHE FOSSIL FUELS APOGEE João C. O. Matias (PhD) and Tessaleno C. DevezasJoão C. O. Matias (PhD) and Tessaleno C. Devezas (PhD)(PhD)

Technological Forecasting and Innovation Theory Working Group (TFIT-WG)

Dept. of Electromechanical Engineering University of Beira Interior

Covilhã - Portugal

IV INTERNATIONAL WORKSHOP ON OIL AND GAS DEPLETIONIV INTERNATIONAL WORKSHOP ON OIL AND GAS DEPLETION

19-20 May 2005, Lisbon, Portugal19-20 May 2005, Lisbon, Portugal

Interest of the WorkInterest of the Work

To verify if the To verify if the substitution of the substitution of the Non-solid Fossil for the Non-solid Fossil for the alternative energies sources alternative energies sources will happen in the futurewill happen in the future

TTo demonstrate the relation between o demonstrate the relation between substitution of primary energy sources substitution of primary energy sources and socio-economic development - and socio-economic development - structural long wavesstructural long waves;;

MaMaking use of technological forecasting king use of technological forecasting tools, it is presented a future tools, it is presented a future perspective in which the substitution perspective in which the substitution process points towards alternative process points towards alternative energies sourcesenergies sources..

AimAimss

Energy needs are related to three main Energy needs are related to three main factorsfactors : :

- - population growthpopulation growth;;

- - economic developmenteconomic development;;

- - technological progresstechnological progress..

Initial Considerations [1]Initial Considerations [1]

Initial ConsiderationsInitial Considerations [2][2]

0

0,1

0,2

0,3

0,4

0,5

0,6

0,7

0,8

0,9

1850 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990

Ano

[*10

0]% OO

WW CC

NGNGHH

NN

The long and gradual substitution among the primary energy The long and gradual substitution among the primary energy sources;sources;

The domain of coal during a long period of time, reaching more The domain of coal during a long period of time, reaching more than two thirds of the consumed primary energy;than two thirds of the consumed primary energy;

The almost simultaneous introduction of oil and natural gas;The almost simultaneous introduction of oil and natural gas; The peak of oil consumption in the seventies, coincident with The peak of oil consumption in the seventies, coincident with

the oil crisis the oil crisis Beginning of the Turbulence. Beginning of the Turbulence.

FirstFirst, the steam engine (associated to , the steam engine (associated to coal);coal);

SecondlySecondly, the increase of the , the increase of the diversification of the final use diversification of the final use technologies and the energy sources technologies and the energy sources diversification (majority to oil)diversification (majority to oil)

Initial ConsiderationsInitial Considerations [[33]]

The The 11stst transformation (1770-1800) was linked with transformation (1770-1800) was linked with the the substitution of wood for coal as primary energy substitution of wood for coal as primary energy sourcesource, with consequences in iron-making, in fuelling , with consequences in iron-making, in fuelling the first steam engine, in building the first canals and the first steam engine, in building the first canals and in mechanizing cotton spinning;in mechanizing cotton spinning;

The The 22ndnd transformation (1830-1850) was related to the transformation (1830-1850) was related to the use of the steam power to the textile industry and to use of the steam power to the textile industry and to transportation (railways and steam boat)transportation (railways and steam boat). . This This transformation, along with the first one, is associated transformation, along with the first one, is associated to the “1to the “1stst Industrial Revolution” Industrial Revolution”

TechnologicalTechnological Transformations Transformations[1][1]

- The - The 33rdrd transformationtransformation (1860-1900) was a (1860-1900) was a complex one: it centered itself on steel-making complex one: it centered itself on steel-making and on the mechanization of manufacturing, on and on the mechanization of manufacturing, on illumination, telephones, electrification and on the illumination, telephones, electrification and on the internal combustion engines;internal combustion engines;

- It was also characterized by the - It was also characterized by the beginning of the beginning of the substitution of coal by oil as primary energy substitution of coal by oil as primary energy sourcesource, being called the “2, being called the “2ndnd Industrial Revolution”; Industrial Revolution”;

TechnologicalTechnological Transformations Transformations[[22]]

The The 44thth transformation (1930-1950) was centered transformation (1930-1950) was centered on synthetic materials and electronicson synthetic materials and electronics;;

The The 55thth transformationtransformation,, beginning around 1980, beginning around 1980, centers itself on the convergence of computers centers itself on the convergence of computers and telecommunicationsand telecommunications;;

TechnologicalTechnological Transformations Transformations[[33]]

Summary:Summary:

Future PerspectiveFuture Perspective [1] [1]

Wood will have its “dusk” (market share Wood will have its “dusk” (market share 1%), as 1%), as traditional energy, by 2010-2015traditional energy, by 2010-2015;;

Coal will have its “dusk” between 2040 and 2060Coal will have its “dusk” between 2040 and 2060;;

Among the FNS, natural gas can surpass oil by 2040-2050;Among the FNS, natural gas can surpass oil by 2040-2050;

But, NG will be difficultly assumed as main primary energy, But, NG will be difficultly assumed as main primary energy, if the alternative energies are considered in the totality, if the alternative energies are considered in the totality, being assumed as a FNS “up-grade” and assumed as a being assumed as a FNS “up-grade” and assumed as a transition fuel;transition fuel;

FNS can stay in the leadership up until 2050-2070, moment FNS can stay in the leadership up until 2050-2070, moment in which they will be surpassed by the group of the in which they will be surpassed by the group of the alternative energiesalternative energies;;

Future PerspectiveFuture Perspective [2] [2]

Nuclear fission will remain as a source of energy, even Nuclear fission will remain as a source of energy, even having the possibility to increase its market share, being having the possibility to increase its market share, being very important for the consolidation of the alternative very important for the consolidation of the alternative energies, even if not in short termsenergies, even if not in short terms;;

Nuclear fusion, as commercial energy, will be difficultly Nuclear fusion, as commercial energy, will be difficultly available before 2050-2060available before 2050-2060;;

In short terms, the most effective way to reduce the In short terms, the most effective way to reduce the greenhouse effect is to improve the fossil fuels greenhouse effect is to improve the fossil fuels combustion efficiency;combustion efficiency;

W CFNS

Alter

1ªK W3ªK W2ªK W 4ªK W 5ªK W 6ªK W

The economic Long Waves cThe economic Long Waves canan help in the help in the tendencies extrapolation for the primary energy tendencies extrapolation for the primary energy sources?sources?

TThere are no doubts that the primary energy here are no doubts that the primary energy sources are associated to the major sources are associated to the major technological transformations and technological transformations and consequently associated to the structural long consequently associated to the structural long waveswaves;;

It is possible to point out a progressive It is possible to point out a progressive substitution of the substitution of the FNSFNS by the alternative by the alternative energiesenergies and and it is believable that we are it is believable that we are moving toward alternative energies;moving toward alternative energies;

Consequently, it is possible Consequently, it is possible THE FOSSIL FUELS THE FOSSIL FUELS APOGEEAPOGEE on on THE FIFTH KONDRATIEFF WAVETHE FIFTH KONDRATIEFF WAVE;;

ConclusionsConclusions

THE FIFTH KONDRATIEFF WAVE: THE FIFTH KONDRATIEFF WAVE:

THE FOSSIL FUELS APOGEETHE FOSSIL FUELS APOGEE João C. O. Matias (PhD) and Tessaleno C. DevezasJoão C. O. Matias (PhD) and Tessaleno C. Devezas (PhD)(PhD)

Technological Forecasting and Innovation Theory Working Group (TFIT-WG)

Dept. of Electromechanical Engineering University of Beira Interior

Covilhã - Portugal

IV INTERNATIONAL WORKSHOP ON OIL AND GAS DEPLETIONIV INTERNATIONAL WORKSHOP ON OIL AND GAS DEPLETION

19-20 May 2005, Lisbon, Portugal19-20 May 2005, Lisbon, Portugal