The Face and Wallet Behind the Suitcase Assessing the ......3,012 Average daily hotel population...
Transcript of The Face and Wallet Behind the Suitcase Assessing the ......3,012 Average daily hotel population...
The Face (and Wallet) Behind the Suitcase:
Assessing the Customer Base of Tourist Locations
Laura Schewel
Founder and Chief Executive Officer,
StreetLight Data
Alameda, CA
Holly Yonosko
Director, Retail Consulting
American Express
New York, NY
Robert Welch
President
Synergos Technologies, Inc.
Austin, TX
Brian J. SchumacherICSC Research Connections Conference Program Planning Committee
Senior Manager, Real Estate Research
Chico’s FAS, Inc.
Fort Myers, FL
The Face (and Wallet) Behind the Suitcase:
Assessing the Customer Base of Tourist Markets
� Americans are on the move throughout the year:
o Memorial Day: 36.1 million
o July 4th: 41.0 million
o Labor Day: 34.1 million
o Thanksgiving: 43.4 million
o Winter holidays: 94.5 million
Everyone loves a vacation . . .
* Those traveling 50+ miles; source: AAA, Nov. 2013
** source: US Travel Association
� This isn’t only an American phenomenon. In 2013 alone,
69.6 million international visitors came to the U.S.**
� These are big numbers – and they’re growing:
o The domestic figures above are each y-o-y increases of between 1.5% - 2%*
o The International visitor count is projected to increase to 81 million by 2016**
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Top Leisure Activities for U.S. Travelers*
1 Visiting relatives
2 Shopping
3 Visiting friends
4 Dining
Proving once and for all that we care more about shopping than
about having friends or eating to sustain life itself. . . .
* source: U.S. Travel Association, March 2014
. . . and they love to shop while on vacation.
� According to the U.S. Travel Association, shopping as a planned activity
is included in 30% of all domestic trips – generating $94B in retail
expenditure!
� In fact, shopping is one of the primary activities for travelers
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$0
$20,000
$40,000
$60,000
$80,000
$100,000
$120,000
$140,000
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illi
on
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Retail Spending by Travelers
Retail Spending by Tourists Over Time
Aside from dips during Recession periods, retail spending by
tourists has been on an upward trajectory.
‘Retail Spending’ is defined as non-food, non-lodging, non-travel retail spending by people who travel for any reason
* source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, June 2014
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Tackling the Tourist Market
So how do we assess markets where the majority of
your customers live hundreds of miles away?
How much will these visitors effectively increase the
population of the area’s customer base?
How much are they likely to spend?
And what will they spend it on?
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Our Panel . . .
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Robert WelchPopStats
Holly YonoskoAmerican Express
Laura SchewelStreetLight Data
Definition – Tourist/Visitor
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A person who arrives in a locale for a short
duration, typically seeking entertainment or to
socialize with others.
Las Vegas, NV (S Las Vegas Blvd & Tropicana)
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� Given a one mile radius
� Household population
3,012
� Average daily hotel
population 84,218
Issues
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� Proxies
� Seasonality
� Economics
– Origination
– Length of stay
– “Household” size
– Spending power
Proxies
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� Airport deplanements– Bureau of Transportation Statistics (www.bts.gov)
� Hotel occupancies– Smith Travel Research (www.str.com)
� Anchors– CVB (www.cvent.com)
– Conventions (www.eventsinamerica.com)
– Fairs (www.craftlister.com)
– Attractions (www.iaapa.org)
Seasonality
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Key industries such as
hospitality and retail can
reveal seasonality in an
area.
www.bls.gov
Economics
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� American Travel Survey (BTS)
� National Household Travel Survey (DOT)
� State of the American Traveler Survey (Private)
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Where do people tourists go?
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Turning Data Exhaust into Tourist Insights
Tourist Behaviors
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Example 1: Sanibel Shopping Center
Shopping Center
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Shoppers by Home State
In State = ~75%
Color Range
2 - 5%
1 - 2%
0.5 - 1%
0.1 - 0.5%
V. low
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Center vs. All of Sanibel: Home State
Color Meaning
Sanibel
higher than
shopping
center
Sanibel
slightly higher
than shopping
center
Similar
Shopping
Center Higher
than Sanibel
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Top MSAs as Percent Total Shoppers
0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 5.0%
Naples-Immokalee-Marco Island, FL
Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH
Punta Gorda, FL
Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL
New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
Bridgeport-Stamford-Norwalk, CT
Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
St. Louis, MO-IL
Milwaukee-Waukesha-West Allis, WI
Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
Indianapolis-Carmel-Anderson, IN
Columbus, OH
North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
Rochester, NY
Ann Arbor, MI
Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA
Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI
Richmond, VA
Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
Pittsburgh, PA
Madison, WI
Cleveland-Elyria, OH
Fort Myers (local)
is 41%
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Deep Dive on Home ZIPs for 2 MSAs
Top 10 Minneapolis ZIPs
ZIP % Visitors who Live Here
55127 0.22%
54016 0.19%
55038 0.19%
55126 0.17%
55073 0.17%
55419 0.16%
55110 0.16%
55032 0.15%
55417 0.14%
55112 0.14%
2 Richmond VA ZIPs Dominate
ZIP % Visitors who Live Here
23188 0.47%
23226 0.42%
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Possible Explanation: Income
63
53
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Compare Median HH Incomes for these ZIPs
Minneapolis Richmond
14%
17%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
% Households in these ZIPs with greater than $150k/year income
Minneapolis Richmond
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Vince Lombardi: Presumably No Locals
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Top States for Rest Stoppers
Color Range
20+% (NJ = 66%)
10 - 20%
2 - 10%
<2%
V. low
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Weaknesses of Our Approach
1. Long-term tourists
2. International Tourists
3. Stores that are very
close together or
small
4. Manhattan
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Other Interesting Tourist Analyses
1. Airport or hotel tagging
2. Tourists looking at
billboards
3. Routes for car-based
tourists
4. Light up a 1km grid of the
city by where the most
tourists are
5. Audience question: what
do you want to know?
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Questions?