The expansion of oil palm and other crops in East...
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Transcript of The expansion of oil palm and other crops in East...
The expansion of oil palm and other crops in East Kalimantan from 1990 to 2030
Carina van der Laan, PhD Researcher Copernicus of Sustainable Development,
Utrecht University
Co-promotors: dr. Pita Verweij, dr. Stefan Dekker
LANDac Symposium Utrecht, July 2015
1
Content Agricultural development in 1990-2010
Projections land change 2010-2030, based on PLUC
model
2
Forest loss in Kalimantan in 1950-2005 and projected till 2020
(Source: WWF) 3
‘Contributors’ to forest loss
4
Oil palm
Mining
Logging
Pulp and paper
Rubber
Smallholders
Large-scale industries
Fire
(Gaveau et al., 2013, 2014; Abood et al., 2014, etc.)
West Kutai and Mahakam Ulu districts
1990 2000 2010 ~3.3 million hectares, divided in two districts in 2014 (source: Budiman et al., 2011)
5
6
Forest cover loss in West Kutai and Mahakam Ulu districts
Van der Laan et al., submitted
-8%
Land changes 2000-2010
8
Van der Laan et al., submitted
Land change processes
9
1990-2000 2000-2010 Van der Laan et al., submitted
PLUC modelling framework
10 Adapted from Verstegen et al., 2012
- Resolution: 250m - Period:2010-2030 - Time step: 1 year
- Land demand: 6
agricultural types
Spatial allocation: - Biophysical factors - Infrastructure - Land cover/use - Land zoning
1
2
3
4
5
Land demands
Scenarios Land demand LULC types
1A 2A La
nd
zon
ing
1B 2B 11
Scenarios Land demand LULC types
1A 2A
Controlled slow expansion
Lan
d z
onin
g
S-shaped growth of demand
Strict land zoning
1B 2B 12
Scenarios Land demand LULC types
1A 2A
Controlled slow expansion
Lan
d z
onin
g
S-shaped growth of demand
Strict land zoning
Not controlled slow expansion
S-shaped growth of demand
Free land zoning
1B 2B 13
Scenarios Land demand LULC types
1A 2A
Controlled slow expansion Controlled high expansion
Lan
d z
onin
g
S-shaped growth of demand Exponential growth of demand
Strict land zoning Strict land zoning
Not controlled slow expansion
S-shaped growth of demand
Free land zoning
1B 2B 14
Scenarios Land demand LULC types
1A 2A
Controlled slow expansion Controlled high expansion
Lan
d z
onin
g
S-shaped growth of demand Exponential growth of demand
Strict land zoning Strict land zoning
Not controlled slow expansion
Not controlled high expansion
S-shaped growth of demand Exponential growth of demand
Free land zoning Free land zoning
1B 2B 15
16
0
50.000
100.000
150.000
200.000
250.000
300.000
350.000
400.000
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Land
dem
and
area
(ha)
Axis Title
Agricultural expansion 1990-2010 and projected for 2010-2030
Oil palm
Smallholder rubber
Mixed agriculture
Coal mining
Settlement
Forest plantation
Strict (S) and free (F) land zoning Land zones Non-forestry
zone (APL, KBNK)
Watershed protection forest (HL)
Production forest (HP)
Limited production
forest (HPT)
Conservation forest (KSPA)
Peat
Strict Free Strict Free Strict Free Strict Free Strict Free Strict Free Mixed agriculture yes
yes
no
no
no
yes
no
yes
no
no
no
yes
Smallholder rubber
yes no
Oil palm yes no no
Coal mining yes yes
Forest plantation no
Settlements yes no
19
0,0
0,4
0,8
1,2La
nd a
rea
(Mha
) 2020
1. Forest - Closed
2. Forest - Medium open
3. Forest - Very open
4. Shrubs
5. Grassland
6. Cleared
0,0
0,4
0,8
1,2
2010 S-strict S-free Exp-strict Exp-free
Land
are
a (M
ha) 2030
20
0,0
0,2
0,4
0,6La
nd a
rea
(Mha
) 2020 11. Oil palm plantation
8. Smallholder Rubber
10. Forest plantation
7. Mixed agriculture
13. Coal mining
14. Settlement
0,0
0,2
0,4
0,6
2010 S-strict S-free Exp-strict Exp-free
Land
are
a (M
ha) 2030
Main messages For analysis land use change processes, multiple data sources useful:
Expert knowledge: relates to short term processes Agricultural statistics: regional production volumes and areas Remote sensing data: spatial information
Land change is highly dynamic and changes over time:
deforestation, degradation and agricultural expansion for palm oil and rubber production dominant: now and in the future
Forest landscapes are being transformed in mosaics of land cover and land uses
22
Findings and recommendations How to reconcile all agricultural land uses, while maintainnig ecosystem services?
Limiting agricultural expansion, setting clear goals for the longer term, reconcile policies from different ministeries is important
Land allocation zoning policies at different government levels are complex and sometimes contradicting: as it exists now, it does not guarantee the maintenance of forest cover or food production
Reconciliation of spatial planning vs. land allocation zoning vs. concession permits important: crucial factors in land use patterns
Involve stakeholders and apply planning methods (e.g. RCA, Smit et al., 2013)
23
Thank you, Terima kasih
Carina van der Laan [email protected]
Co-promotors: Pita Verweij, Stefan Dekker
Promotor: André Faaij
With input and support from: Arif Budiman, Judith Verstegen, Laurens Bakker, Wiwin Effendy, Arif Data Kusuma
Funded by: NWO & KNAW 25