The Evolving Supply and Demand of Skills in the Labour Market
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Transcript of The Evolving Supply and Demand of Skills in the Labour Market
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The Evolving Supply and Demand of Skills in the Labour MarketIlaria MaselliCEPS
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In this presentationLabour demand and supply with respect to educationDemand and its driversSupplyVertical mismatch?Future risks
Research question: are there too many or not enough skills?
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Evolution of labour demandJob polarisation in EU27, 2000-2010.
Low qualified jobsMedium skilled jobs
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ISCO classificationLow skilled jobs = cleaners, labourers in construction, manufacturing and transport and food preparation assistants.Medium qualified jobs = plant and machine operators, electrical and electronic trades workers and craft and related trades workers.High profile jobs = managers, professionals, technicians
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Evolution of labour demand Italyvs Belgium (2000-2010)
Low qualified jobsMedium skilled jobsHigh skilled jobsHigh skilled jobsMedium skilled jobs
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Labour demand: 3 theoriesSkill-biased technological changeRoutinisation hypothesisGlobalisation - offshoring
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Labour demand
Job polarisationOtherBG, DE, EL, ES, FR, IT, CY, HU, MT, NL, AT, PL, RO, SL, FI, SE, UKBE, CZ, DK, ET, IE, LV, LT, LX, PT, SK
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Labour supply: educational expansionEU27, 2000-2010Low skilled active pop 25-64High skilled active pop 25-64Medium skilled active pop 25-64
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Labour supply: educational expansion
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Demand and Supply wrt SkillsEU27, 2000-2010
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Demand and Supply wrt SkillsEU27, 2010-2020 (CEDEFOP projections)
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Demand and Supply wrt Skills
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Vertical mismatch: risksShortage of low skilled workers = Korean scenarioLow skilled unemploymentMiddle skilled displacementOverqualification of high skilledEquilibrium!
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Vertical mismatch: risks
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Enough graduate jobs for graduate workers? Employment rate of high skilled high everywhere (around 80%)
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Enough graduate jobs for graduate workers? No evidence that employment rate of HS is lower in countries that expanded educ faster
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Enough graduate jobs for graduate workers?
Yes BUT increase in heterogeneity:
For ex: returns from education more differentiated by subject
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Vertical mismatch: risks
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Low skilled jobsNo Korean scenario: lack of people to take DDD jobsIn some countries still more low skilled workers that low skilled jobs => risk of low skilled unemployment high despite educational expansion (EL, IT, PT, MT, DK)
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Vertical mismatch: risks
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Shrinking middleIn Germany has shrunk from 62% to 54% of the populationSame in Denmark: 31.5% to 28.6% of the population
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Conclusions (1): EU vs countriesEU27 as a whole in equilibrium But cross-country differences ...high mobility would solve the problem (and Eurozone crisis in part also!)
Some countries will continue to deal with low skilled unemployment (Southern + DK)
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Conclusions (2): shrinking middleOthers will face a new problem: excess of middle skilled workers=> what will they do?- Compete for higher skilled jobs (if possible)- Compete for lower skilled onesInnovation is @ workcreative destruction (Schumpeter)
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Conclusions (3): shrinking middle again!Shrinking middle = main looser:What are the Consequences? higher income inequalityOver-education Less job satisfaction? Sociological and political science problems to be explored. For example, concerning the financing of welfare?
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Conclusions (4): what we may not catchWe need further research to understand the skills interplay:
Ex: the definition of a graduate job is not frozen in time: what we consider a graduate job today, like a journalist, did not require tertiary education twenty years ago. The same applies to non-graduate jobs: with the help of technology some former graduate jobs have been de-skilled (accounting for example) and the quality of other low skilled jobs has been increased. (Elias and Purcell 2004)
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Thanks for the attention
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