The Evolution of Broadband from Coverage to Quality
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Transcript of The Evolution of Broadband from Coverage to Quality
© 2008 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved.Pepper-11-2008-1 1
The Evolution of Broadband:From Coverage to Quality
Robert Pepper
Vice President
Global Technology Policy
3 November 2008
© 2008 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved.Pepper-11-2008-1 2
Four Stages of National Broadband Discussion
Availability/Coverage (supply) Adoption (demand) “Speed” Quality
© 2008 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved.Pepper-11-2008-1 3
Transport IPNetworks
Energy(Power)
Water
Communications: From telephony to connectivity/broadband
Networks: the Fourth Essential Infrastructure
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What we all want
Build on the success of the Internet Ubiquitous broadband Faster robust broadband networks New innovative applications Consumer/citizen benefits Investment in networks and applications
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Growing Demand
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The Consumer in Control and Driving Demand
Entire Internet TrafficEntire Internet Traffic
Only 20 HomesOnly 20 Homes
20102010
“By the year 2010… bandwidth for 20 homes will generate more traffic than entire Internet in 1995”“By the year 2010… bandwidth for 20 homes will generate more traffic than entire Internet in 1995”
19951995
Source: Cisco estimates, Ovum, Gartner, IDC, Merrill Lynch, MRG, MPA, Public company data
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41% CAGR 2007-2012
Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index – Forecast, 2007-2012
Impact of Video on Internet Traffic GROWTH OF GLOBAL CONSUMER INTERNET TRAFFIC MIX
0
10,000
20,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
PB
/mo
nth
Internet Video to TV
Internet Video to PC
VoIP
Video Communications
Gaming
P2P
Web/Data
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294.0Gbps(2007.11)
199.4Gbps (2007.11)
269.4Gbps (2004.9)
303.2Gbps (2004.10)
323.6Gbps (2004.11)
721.7Gbps (2007.5)
636.6Gbps (2006.11)
523.6Gbps (2006.5)
468.0Gbps (2005.11)
424.5Gbps (2005.5)
812.9Gbps(2007.11)
339.8Gbps(2007.11)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
[Gbps]
Efforts for Grasping Current Status of Internet Traffic in Japan , MIC
Est. download traffic of broadband users in Japan
Monthly average of daily traffic of Broadband customers (ADSL/CATV/FTTH) of major ISPs in Japan
(ref.1) Monthly average of daily peak traffic exchanged at major IXs in Japan
(ref.2) Monthly average of daily traffic exchanged at major IXs in Japan
IP traffic in Japan grew 2.5 times in 3 years to estimated 812.9Gbps in Nov 2007
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Heavy Users Dominate Traffic
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Traffic Consumption Among Residential Broadband Users -- 10,000-fold variation
Source : http://www.iepg.org/march2005/kjc-iepg200503.pdf
1%
5%
20%
50%
1 TB/Mo
Avg = 8GB/Mo = 25Kbit/sec
1% => 225+ GB/Month
5% => 60+ GB/Month
20% => 7,5+ GB/Month
50% => 1+ GB/Month
1% => 225+ GB/Month
5% => 60+ GB/Month
20% => 7,5+ GB/Month
50% => 1+ GB/Month
90% Users are under the Avg
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Dimensions of Broadband:Quality Matters
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Dimensions of Broadband
Bandwidth—”speed” Latency Jitter Symmetry Bursting Other…
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Not All Bits Are Created Equal“Speed” and Latency
Bandwidth
Low
High
HighLow
TelepresenceVoice
HD-IPTV
Sensitiveto Latency
StreamingAudio
Gaming(LD)
Gaming(HD)
DownloadVideo
StreamingVideo
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2000 2005 2010 2015
Changing Requirements for Quality B
road
ban
d Q
ual
ity
TWO WAVES OF BROADBAND SERVICES
Source: California Broadband Task Force, Jan 2008; Cisco IBSG; Expert interviews; Oxford Team analysis, Aug 2008
Social networking LD video streaming Basic video chatting Small file sharing SD IPTV
Visual networking HD video streaming Consumer telepresence Large file sharing HD IPTV
Requirements Download 3.75 Mbps Upload 1 Mbps Latency 95ms
Requirements• Download 11.25Mbps• Upload 5Mbps• Latency 60ms
Today
Tomorrow
© 2008 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved.Pepper-11-2008-1 15
Broadband Quality Score (BQS)
BQS is calculated based on normalized values of:
Download and Upload throughput, and Latency About 8million records sourced from actual tests from
Speedtest.net (Ookla) during May 2008
Weights assigned to each factor for today’s and tomorrow’s (3 to 5 years) applications.
BQS (today) = 55% Download + 23% Upload + 22%Latency
BQS (tmrw) = 45% Download + 32% Upload + 23%Latency
Source: University of Oviedo; Delphi interviews; Oxford University Team Analysis, Aug 2008
BQS CALCULATION
BQS threshold: 32 Download 3.75 Mbps Upload 1 Mbps Latency 95ms
BQS threshold: 75 Download 11.25Mbps Upload 5Mbps Latency 60ms
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Country Broadband Quality Scores
Source: Speed Test database, Expert Interviews, BQS Team Analysis, Aug 2008
Today’s applicationsBQS threshold: 32
Tomorrow’s applicationsBQS threshold: 75
BROADBAND QUALITY SCORE BY COUNTRY
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100BQI
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Impact of Quality and Penetration
MAIN FACTORS ASSOCIATED WITH BROADBAND QUALITY AND PENETRATION
Source: Speed Test database; University of Oviedo and Oxford University Team Analysis, Aug 2008
* based on limited sample of ComScore data
HIGHPENETRATION
HIGHQUALITY
• ICT Diffusion• Knowledge
Economy• Web Usage*
• Education• Fibre and
upgraded cable
• Innovation• Labour
Productivity• Competitiveness
• GDP/Capita• Technology
Diversity• PCs/Capita
DRIVING FACTORS
IMPACT ONBROADBAND
SOCIOECONOMIC IMPACT
© 2008 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved.Pepper-11-2008-1 18