The Europeanelectricitysectorand the climate ... · BL MT EA GR-FT 0 500 1 000 1 500 2 000 2 500 3...

SECURE Electricity Stakeholder meeting Milan, January 18, 2010 1

The European electricity sector and

the climate-security nexus in the

SECURE scenarios

Silvana Mima

Patrick Criqui

LEPII-EPE


Energy and climate: twin problems

� Between now and 2050, humanity have to face a twin problem:

- The growing scarcity for oil and gas (not for coal !)

- The acccumulation of GHGs in the atmosphere

� These « twin problems » cannot be consideredindependently as:

- Hydrocarbon scarcity paves the way to coal

- Conversely, climate policies open the path to low carbonsocieties

� « Smart energy policies » thus have to deal withthe two sides of the problem


The SECURE approach

The results of four scenarios

The results of three exercices

Energy dependence & vulnerability


SECURE: purpose of the study

� The SECURE project – in FP7 – aims atanalysing future energy Security of Supply for Europe

� Research also needs to take into accountpotential impacts of climate policies on the world energy system

� The POLES long-term world energy model isused to produce a number of framingscenarios, in order to explore the « climatechange and energy security nexus »


Reminder : 4 scenarios +3 exercises with shocks explored

with the POLES model

� Scenarios

1. The BaseLine case is a counter-factual, no climate p olicy scenario, used mostly for benchmarking

2. The Muddling Through scenario describes the consequ ences of non-coordinated, low profile climate policies

3. The Europe Alone case represents the outcome of a s cenario in which every country is free-riding (almost) … excep t the Union

4. The Global Regime explores a new world energy syste m, under strong emission constraint (EU-type)

� Exercises

1. Oil and gas shocks

2. Nuclear accident + phase out

3. Problems in the diffusion of the CCS


SECURE scenarios, hypotheses and outcomes

Type II (2-3°C)

400 CO2-50%

(Annex 1: -80%)390 in A1

260 in NA1Global Regime

Type IV (3-4°C)

500- CO2+43%

(EU: -60%)180 in Eur30 in RoW

Europe Alone

Type IV (3-4°C)

500 CO2+55%40 in Eur 30

in RoWMuddling Through

Type VI (5-6°C)

700 CO2+110%0Baseline

AR4 categories

Emissions 2050 / 2000

Carbon Price 2050 (€/tCO2)


The SECURE approach





International energy prices

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

€05/

boe

OilGas (Asia)Gas (Europe)

Gas (America)Coal (Asia)Coal (Europe)Coal (America)

International Prices - BL

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

€05/

boe



International Prices - MT

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

€05/

boe



International Prices - EA

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

€05/

boe



International Prices - GR-2M

� In 2050, international oil and gas prices are about tw icelower in the Global Regime than in the Baseline

BL MT

EA GR


Europe primarymix by scenario

EU27 Primary consumption - BL

0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Mto

e

Other Renew ables

Biomass

Nuclear

Coal, lignite

Natural gas

Oil

� In the Global Regime, fossil fuels are brought down to 6 9% in 2020, compared to 79% in the Baseline

� In 2050 they are down to 36% compared to 74% in the Basel ineEU27 Primary consumption - MT

0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Mto

e

Other Renew ables

Biomass

Nuclear

Coal, lignite

Natural gas

Oil

EU27 Primary consumption - EA

0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Mto

e

Other Renew ables

Biomass

Nuclear

Coal, lignite

Natural gas

Oil

EU27 Primary consumption - GR-2M

0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Mto

e

Other Renew ables

Biomass

Nuclear

Coal, lignite

Natural gas

Oil

BL MT

EA GR


Europe’s coal and natural consumption in the four scenarios� Natural gas, as a non CO2 intensive fossil is much l ess impacted

by climate policies than coal

� Total 2020 supply varies only between 450 and 480 Gm3 between the two extreme cases, while in 2050 the range increa ses to 265-500 Gm3.

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Mto

e

BL

MT

EA

GR-2M

GR-FT

European Gas consumption by Scenario

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Mto

e

BL

MT

EA

GR-2M

GR-FT

European Coal consumption by Scenario


European Gas supply

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Gm

3

UK+NLD+NOR

Others

VNZ

SAU

QAT

IRN

RIS

NGA

DZA

RUS

European gas imports by country - BL

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Gm

3

UK+NLD+NOR

Others

VNZ

SAU

QAT

IRN

RIS

NGA

DZA

RUS

European gas imports by country - MT

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Gm

3

UK+NLD+NOR

Other

VNZ

SAU

QAT

IRN

RIS

NGA

DZA

RUS

European gas imports by country - GR-2M

� Domestic production drop over time and as imports sta bilize after 2040 at a level triple of today in BL and MT� They peak in 2020 and then decrease in the EA and GR cases

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Gm

3

UK+NLD+NOR

Others

VNZ

SAU

QAT

IRN

RIS

NGA

DZA

RUS

European gas imports by country - EA

BL MT

EA GR


EU27 Electricity production

0

1 000

2 000

3 000

4 000

5 000

6 000

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

TW

h

Other renew ables

Nuclear

Biomass

Coal, lignite

Natural gas

Oil

European Electricity production

� Total electricity production is almost unchanged in a ll scenarios because electricity is the carrier of decarboni sation

EU27 Electricity production - EA

0

1 000

2 000

3 000

4 000

5 000

6 000

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

TW

h

Other renew ables

Nuclear

Biomass

Coal, lignite

Natural gas

Oil


0

1 000

2 000

3 000

4 000

5 000

6 000

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

TW

h

Other renew ables

Nuclear

Biomass

Coal, lignite

Natural gas

Oil


0

1 000

2 000

3 000

4 000

5 000

6 000

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

TW

h

Other renew ables

Nuclear

Biomass

Coal, lignite

Natural gas

Oil

BL MT

EA GR


European Electricity production

�The share of thermal production w/o CCS decreases as no n fossil

and CCS options increase from one scenario to the oth er

0

1 000

2 000

3 000

4 000

5 000

6 000

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

TW

h

Thermal With SEQ

Thermal WO SEQ

Other

EU27 Electricity Production w ith and w /o Sequestrat ion - GR-2M

9%

63%

28%

0

1 000

2 000

3 000

4 000

5 000

6 000

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

TW

h

Thermal With SEQ

Thermal WO SEQ

Other

EU27 Electricity Production w ith and w /o Sequestrat ion - EA

15%

73%

12%

0

1 000

2 000

3 000

4 000

5 000

6 000

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

TW

h

Thermal With SEQ

Thermal WO SEQ

Other

EU27 Electricity Production w ith and w /o Sequestrat ion - MT

36%

58%

6%

0

1 000

2 000

3 000

4 000

5 000

6 000

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

TW

h

Thermal With SEQ

Thermal WO SEQ

Other

EU27 Electricity Production w ith and w /o Sequestrat ion - BL

54%

46%

BL MT

EA GR


0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

TW

h

BL

MT

EA

GR-FT

0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

TW

h

BL

MT

EA

GR-FT

0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

TW

h

BL

MT

EA

GR-FT

0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

TW

h

BL

MT

EA

GR-FT

� The role of renewables and nuclear will significantly inc rease in the

future, particularly in the EA scenario for the REN and in GR for the

Nuclear.

European Electricity production by source of energy

CoalGas

Renewables Nuclear


EU27 electricity production from renewables

0

200

400

600

800

1 000

1 200

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

TW

h

BL

MT

EA

GR-FT

Wind

0

200

400

600

800

1 000

1 200

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

TW

h

BL

MT

EA

GR-FT

Biomass

0

200

400

600

800

1 000

1 200

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

TW

h

BL

MT

EA

GR-FT

Hydro

0

200

400

600

800

1 000

1 200

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

TW

h

BL

MT

EA

GR-FT

Solar

� Wind and biomass will play the major role.


EU27 Final Electricity Consumption

0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

3 500

4 000

4 500

5 000

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

TW

hBL

MT

EA

GR-FT

0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

3 500

4 000

4 500

5 000

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

TW

h

BL

MT

EA

GR-FT

0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

3 500

4 000

4 500

5 000

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

TW

h

BL

MT

EA

GR-FT

0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

3 500

4 000

4 500

5 000

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

TW

h

BL

MT

EA

GR-FT

Industry

Residential & service Transport

Final consumption

� Final electricity consumption increase continuously during the period in all scenarios.

� However the pace is different : 1.4 %/yr in BL, 1.3 in MT and 1.2 in EA and 1.23 in GR-FT.


EU27 share of Light Vehicles

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

%

CONV HYBV

ELEV GFCV

THYV HFCV


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

%

CONV HYBV

ELEV GFCV

THYV HFCV

27%

18%

4%

51%

27%

17%

3%

53 %


� The share of hybride and electric vehicles increase fromfrom 27% and 17% in MT to 31% and 21% in GR-FT


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

%

CONV HYBV

ELEV GFCV

THYV HFCV


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

%

CONV HYBV

ELEV GFCV

THYV HFCV

BL MT

EA GR30%

19%

5%

46%

31%

21%

5%

43%


0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

GW

h

BL

MT

EA

GR-FT

Electricity consumption in hybrid and electric

vehicles� In 2050 electricity consomption increase 24% in GR-FT an d

14% in EA compared to BL

+24%/BL

14%/BL


� EU27 technologydiffusion by scenario

� Coal technologies decrease in favor of nuclear, BGT and less Wind

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400

PFC

PSS

ICG

ICS

LCT

CCT

OCT

GCT

GGT

OGC

GGS

GGC

NUC

NND

CHP

GFC

HFC

BGT

BTE

BCS

HYD

WND

WNO

SPP

SHY

DPV

GR-FT

EA

MT

BL


European CO2 Emissions

� CO2 Emissions decrease respectively -7%,-22%, -27% an d -14% in 2020 and -28%, -63%, -82% and -72% in 2050 according the scenarios

� Total emissions follow nearly the same trend

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

GtC

O2

BL

MT

EA

GR-2M

GR-FT

European CO2 Emissions by Scenario

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

GtC

O2e

q

BL

MT

EA

GR-2M

GR-FT

European Total Emissions by Scenario

-14%

-7%-22%

-27%

-82%

-28%

-63%

-72%

-23%-27%

-79%

-28%

-61%

-69%

-9%

-15%


EU27 CO2 emissions by sector (energy)� CO2 Emissions decrease respectively -7%,-22%, and -14% in

2020 and -28%, -63%, and -72% in 2050 according the scenarios.

EU27 CO2 emissions by sector (energy)

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

GtC

O2

TransformationTransportRes-Ser-AgrIndustry


0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

GtC

O2



0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

GtC

O2



0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

GtC

O2


BL MT

EA GR

2.4 GtCO2

0.8

0.70.5

1.4 GtCO2

0.7

0.60.5

0.5 GtCO2

0.50.40.3

0.40.40.30.2

1.5

1

0.7

0.7


The SECURE approach

Unsustainability of the Baseline





Impact of Oil&Gas shock

� Assumption : oil & gas price are multiplied by 3 in 2015

� -6% to -8% the impact on primary consumption in Europe i n 2020 and from -3% to -7% in 2050

� -8% to -10% for CO2 emissions in 2020 and from -6% to - 17% in 2050 for BL sh and EA sh

0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

3 500

4 000

4 500

5 000

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Mto

e

BL

BL Sh

MT

MT Sh

EA

EA Sh

EU27 CO2 Emissions by Scenario

-6%

-14%

-17%

-8%

-10%-10%

0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Mto

e

BL

BL Sh

MT

MT Sh

EA

EA Sh

EU27 Primary Consumption by Scenario

-3%

-5%

-7%

-6%

-8%-8%


Impact of Oil&Gas shock

� The impact on total EU electricity generation is weak,-2 % in 2020 and from -6% to -3% in 2050

� However the impacts on the electricity emissions are mo re visible, particularly in 2050.

� This situation results from important impacts on electri citymix.

0

1 000

2 000

3 000

4 000

5 000

6 000

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

TW

h

BL

BL Sh

MT

MT Sh

EA

EA Sh

EU27 electricity generation by Scenario

-3%-3%

-6%

-2%-2%

0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

TW

h

BL

BL Sh

MT

MT Sh

EA

EA Sh

EU27 electricity emissions by Scenario

3%

-5%-3%

3%

-19%

-22%


Impact of Oil&Gas shock on the electricity mix� The mix of EU27 electricity generation is impacted

significantly promoting nuclear and handicap the other s

0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

TW

h

BL

BL Sh

MT

MT Sh

EA

EA Sh

EU27 renewable electricity generation by Scenario

-4%-3%

-4%

0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

TW

h

BL

BL Sh

MT

MT Sh

EA

EA Sh

EU27 Nuclear electricity generation by Scenario

4%

32%

65%

6%9%12%

0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

TW

h

BL

BL Sh

MT

MT Sh

EA

EA Sh

EU27 gas electricity generation by Scenario

-15%-18%

-16% -20%-21%

-15%

0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

TW

h

BL

BL Sh

MT

MT Sh

EA

EA Sh

EU27 coal electricity generation by Scenario

-15%

-18%-16%

10%

-26%

-27%


Impact of Nuclear accident + Phase-out

� Assumption : nuclear accident in 2015 => no more new capacities + normal phase out

� No significant differences of nuclear production in Euro pe in 2020, but cutting by more then three in 2050.

� In global level EU27 electricity production decrease slig htly(3%, 4% and 3% in BL Sh/BL, MT SH/MT, GR-FT Sh/ GR-F T in 2050)

0

200

400

600

800

1 000

1 200

1 400

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

TW

h

BL

BL Sh

MT

MT Sh

GR-FT

GR-FT Sh

EU27 Nuclear Production by Scenario

-73%

-71%

-52%-4%-5%

-2%

0

1 000

2 000

3 000

4 000

5 000

6 000

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

TW

h

BL

BL NucA

MT

MT NucA

GR-FT

GR-FT NucA

EU27 Electricity Production by Scenario

-3%

-3%

-4%

3%-2%-1%


Impact of Nuclear accident + Phase-out

0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

MtC

O2

BL

BL NucA

MT

MT NucA

GR-FT

GR-FT NucA

EU27 Electricity Production by Renewables by Scenar io

-7%

-19%8%4%

0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

TW

h

BL

BL NucA

MT

MT NucA

GR-FT

GR-FT NucA

EU27 Electricity Production by Gas by Scenario

8%-2%

52%

7%-3%

-2%

� Important impact on EU27 electricity mix� Increase of fossil share (coal & gas), also of CCS (incl bc s).

0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

TW

h

BL

BL NucA

MT

MT NucA

GR-FT

GR-FT NucA

EU27 Electricity generation with Coal by Scenario

1%

121%

35%

8%

18%2%

0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

TW

h

BL

BL NucA

MT

MT NucA

GR-FT

GR-FT NucA

EU27 CCS electricity production by Scenario

119%

96%


Impact of Nuclear accident + Phase-out� CO2 emissions from electricity generation increase respectivel y

6%, 16% and 6% in BL Sh/BL, MT SH/MT, GR-FT Sh/ GR-FT� While total CO2 emissions increase respectively 3%, 7% an d

20% in BL Sh/BL, MT SH/MT, GR-FT Sh/ GR-FT � Emissions from BCS are deducted, that explains the low

increase of the emissions from electricity in GR-FT Sh/ GR- FT in 2050.

0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

3 500

4 000

4 500

5 000

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

MtC

O2

BL

BL NucA

MT

MT NucA

GR-FT

GR-FT NucA


4%7%

20%

3%

0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

MtC

O2

BL

BL NucA

MT

MT NucA

GR-FT

GR-FT NucA

EU27 Electricity CO2 emissions by Scenario

6%

16%

14%

6%


Carbon Capture and Storage

� Only 4 full-scale projects exist today

� G8 goal: 20 full-scale demonstrations announced by 2010

http://www.iea.org/speech/2009/Tanaka/Warsaw_global_energy_future.pdf


Barriers to Safe and Cost Effective Deployment

of CCS� Assumption : No Deployment of CCS.� In global level, EU27 electricity production does not change� In 2050 647, 295 and 1089 TWh must be replaced by oth er

technologies respectively in EA w/o CCS, MT w/o CCS and GR-FT w/o CCS.

0

200

400

600

800

1 000

1 200

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

TW

h

EA

EA w/o CCS

MT

MT w/o CCS

GR-FT

GR-FT w/o CCS

EU27 CCS electricity production by Scenario

0

1 000

2 000

3 000

4 000

5 000

6 000

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

TW

h

EA

EA w /o CCS

MT

MT w /o CCS

GR-FT

GR-FT w /o CCS

EU27 Electricity Production by Scenario

-1%


Barriers to Safe and Cost Effective Deployment of CCS� Important impact on EU27 electricity mix� Fossil fuels decrease considerably, weak impact on

renewables, so the increase of nuclear replace the lack of CCS .

0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

MtC

O2

EA

EA w /o CCS

MT

MT w /o CCS

GR-FT

GR-FT w /o CCS


4%

2%

1%

0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

TW

h

EA

EA w /o CCS

MT

MT w /o CCS

GR-FT

GR-FT w /o CCS

EU27 Nuclear Production by Scenario

40%

-2%22%

0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

TW

h

EA

EA w /o CCS

MT

MT w /o CCS

GR-FT

GR-FT w /o CCS

EU27 Electricity generation with Coal by Scenario

-64%

-2%

-40%

0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

TW

h

EA

EA w /o CCS

MT

MT w /o CCS

GR-FT

GR-FT w /o CCS

EU27 Electricity Production by Gas by Scenario

-33%3%

-9%


Barriers to Safe and Cost Effective Deployment

of CCS� Put away CCS from possible clean technology portfol io, means an increase of +43%, +14% and +67% of the EU electricity CO2 em issions then in respective scenarios with CCS MT, EA and GR-FT by 2 050.

�Total emissions increase respectively +11%, +5% and +14%.

� In the scenario GR-FT without CCS, carbon value mus t be increased 30% in 2050 in order to have the same profile of emissions as in GR-FT with CCS.

0

200

400

600

800

1 000

1 200

1 400

1 600

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

MtC

O2

EA

EA w /o CCS

MT

MT w /o CCS

GR-FT

GR-FT w /o CCS

EU27 Electricity CO2 emissions by Scenario

67%

14%

4%

43%

1%

0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

3 500

4 000

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

MtC

O2

EA

EA w /o CCS

MT

MT w /o CCS

GR-FT

GR-FT w /o CCS

Total EU27 CO2 Emissions by Scenario

5%

14%11%


The SECURE approach





Dependence rate, by energy and global� The dependence rate for each fossil source does not

change very much from one scenario to the other

� While global dependence rate (on total GIC) issignificantly altered

2000 2010 2020 2030 2050Dependance rate Coal, lignite 30% 33% 39% 48% 56%

Oil 76% 81% 84% 87% 86%Baseline Natural gas 46% 69% 83% 90% 96%

Total 45% 53% 58% 61% 58%Dependance rate Coal, lignite 30% 32% 35% 44% 50%

Oil 76% 81% 83% 86% 85%Muddling Through Natural gas 46% 69% 83% 91% 96%


Oil 76% 81% 81% 82% 78%Europe alone Natural gas 46% 69% 79% 81% 76%


Oil 76% 81% 82% 85% 83%Global Regime Natural gas 46% 61% 73% 77% 73%

Total 45% 50% 51% 47% 29%


GIC and volume of fossil imports� Dependence may be lower and also applied to

smaller quantities

� In terms of vulnerability, importing 40% of 200 Mtoe is not equivalent to 40% of 400 Mtoe

2000 2010 2020 2030 2050GIC (Mtoe) 1725 1764 1883 2004 2053Imports (Mtoe) Coal, lignite -94 -102 -130 -191 -285

Baseline Oil -505 -532 -560 -564 -440 Natural gas -180 -293 -393 -473 -475

GIC (Mtoe) 1725 1759 1820 1911 1881Imports (Mtoe) Coal, lignite -94 -95 -96 -132 -146

Muddling Through Oil -505 -532 -543 -537 -399 Natural gas -180 -298 -399 -471 -448


Europe alone Oil -505 -524 -466 -378 -235 Natural gas -180 -292 -365 -350 -245


Global Regime Oil -505 -526 -497 -428 -216 Natural gas -180 -260 -351 -359 -206


Value of energy imports� From 1.8 (EA) to 2.2% (BL) of EU GDP in 2020

and from 0.5%(GR) to 2.5% (BL) in 2050.

2000 2010 2020 2030 2050Value of imports (G€05) Coal, lignite 4.9 8.8 12.3 19.7 34.1

Oil 96.1 202.6 250.6 310.6 359.1Baseline Natural gas 24.1 69.0 99.9 139.5 210.2

Total 125.1 280.4 362.8 469.8 603.5Value of imports (G€05) Coal, lignite 4.9 8.2 9.0 13.2 16.4

Oil 96.1 202.7 240.7 284.4 291.3Muddling Through Natural gas 24.1 70.3 101.5 133.8 183.1


Oil 96.1 196.3 201.6 191.9 160.2Europe alone Natural gas 24.1 69.1 94.6 98.1 95.3


Oil 96.1 197.8 208.8 199.8 70.6Global Regime Natural gas 24.1 61.9 87.5 91.0 45.5

Total 125.1 267.5 303.1 298.3 124.1


Conclusions – 1: risks and policies

LowLowLowGlobal Regime

LowHighHighEurope Alone

HighHighHighMuddling Through

x Vulnerabilityc/ex MagnitudeeProbabilityeRiskc/e =

� The international agreement on climate is not yet granted and the introduction of the climate dimension thus increases the uncertaint y in the energy sector

� But it also introduces elements of previsibility, a ssociated to the physical emission constraints

� Strong climate policies bring a significant double divid end in terms of reducedvulnerability to energy shocks, even in a non-cooperat ive framework


Conclusions - 2� The analysis of the results show that total electrici ty production

is almost unchanged in all scenarios because it is a carrier of the decarbonisation.

� For the same reason electricity generation technology m ix change in a very pronounced way between the scenarios : more renewables, nuclear and CCS.

� On the demand side, electricity consumption for hybrid and electric vehicles in the constraint cases increases f aster than in the BL showing the trend towards low emission vehicle s.

� They show that climate policies are strongly structurin g the energy security problem, whether in a cooperative or non-cooperative world

� Beyond pure modeling and scenarios, many issues shoul d be kept in mind in the storylines and analyses, in part icular the institutional dimension for:

- Framework and incentives for electricity investment- Degree of integration of the European electricity system- Institutional factors in new technology chains (scale-up of CCS)- Regulatory framework for nuclear development

The Europeanelectricitysectorand the climate ... · BL MT EA GR-FT 0 500 1 000 1 500 2 000 2 500 3...

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