The European Union–Turkey: Economic Relationships Utku UTKULU, Prof. Dokuz Eylül University FEAS,...

The European Union–Turkey:Economic Relationships

Utku UTKULU, Prof.Dokuz Eylül University

FEAS, Department of EconomicsUtku Utkulu&Aydın Arı

Plan

Turkey in the Integration ProcessInstitutions of the EUCustoms UnionEconomic and Monetary Union (EMU)The enlarging EUThe EU-Turkey: A Brief HistoryThe EU-Turkey: GlossaryThe EU-Turkey: Present Day

Utku Utkulu&Aydın Arı

Turkey in the Integration Process

International Economic Integration Liberalisation of the World Trade Customs Union European Union


International Economic Integration

Integration is a process in which it has to be taken some measures against discrimination between economic agents of the Nation-States volunteer to integrate.

The main goal is the liberalisation of trade in that area by putting away discrimination.

Integration differs from cooperation: Cooperation aims at diminishing

discrimination, Integration aims at removing

discrimination.


Measures for removal of discrimination

Removing of

Tariffs and,

Non-tariff barriers;

Accommodation of

Taxes and,

Monetary and fiscal policies;

Construction of

joint policy and decision mechanism.


The main feature of Integration

Is the liberalisation of trade.

Another is the free movement of the production factors.

Further on geographical distance and transportation costs, the more important requirement is the removal of discrimination made by States over goods and services and, production factors movements.

Integration differs from

- the liberalisation of the world trade,

- the globalisation.


Types (or Stages) of Integration

Preferential Trade Agreement Free Trade Area Customs Union Common Market Economic and Monetary Union Economic Integration Political Integration


Liberalisation of the World Trade:

Is the main purpose of the New Economic Order after World War II.

Is based upon the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) which entered into force in 1948 and terminated on 1995.

The number of the State signed GATT after Uruguay Round (1986-1994) is 125;

one of them is Turkey.

A Brief Description Of International Trade Agreements


http://www.afsc.org/pwork/1099/1007.htm

http://www.afsc.org/pwork/1099/1007.htm

GATTGATT set up a series of negotiating rounds intended

to reduce and gradually eliminate quotas, duties, and tariffs.

Important articles are: Article I General Most-Favoured-Nation Treatment; Article III National Treatment on Internal Taxation

and Regulation; Article XI General Elimination of Quantitative

Restrictions; Article XIII Non-discriminatory Administration of

Quantitative Restrictions; Article XVI Subsidies; Article XX General Exceptions;


http://www.ciesin.org/TG/PI/TRADE/gatttxt.html#art1






GATT mainly aimed at No discrimination on trade, Tariffs only for protection of National Economies

against international competition Equivalent concession Mediation when commercial disagreement

occurs Measures against unfair competition

World Trade Organization (WTO) substituted for GATT after 1995.

wwwUtku Utkulu&Aydın Arı

http://www.wto.org/english/thewto_e/whatis_e/eol/e/wto01/wto1_6.htm

Institutions of the EU European Union European Parliament Council of the European Union European Commission Court of Justice Court of Auditors European Investment Bank Economic and Social Committee Committee of the Regions European Ombudsman Agencies of the European Union


http://www.deltur.cec.eu.int/english/eab-ab.html

Customs Union


The Customs Union between Turkey and the EU has been in force since the beginning of 1996. It has completed its six years of implementation.

It is more than a typical Customs Union, which foresees arrangements on areas including competition, state aids, technical legislation and intellectual property rights.

Although it can be said that the Customs Union has been functioning well in general, there are also certain problems regarding trade. Most of the problems faced by exporters and importers both of Turkish and the EU origin concern technical regulation and testing requirements.

www

Economic Effects of Customs Union

Static Effects Trade creation Trade diversion

Dynamic Effects Economies of scales externalities Increasing

competition Technological

progress Increasing investment Decreasing risk and

uncertainty Increasing exchange

reserves industrialisationUtku Utkulu&Aydın Arı

Q3 Q1 Q2 Q4 QX

PX

0

DA

SA

İ H E L

J F

K G

PC(1+t)

PB

PA

Q1 Q2 Q3

M4

M3

M2

M1

Long run average costs

Q

UOM1

UOM2

C

D

B

0

Effects of the Customs Union(EU-Turkey) on

Balance of Payments Export industry SMEs State aids (investment, export) Agricultural sector Fiscal balance Productivity On Competition


The consequences of CU Turkey's share in EU's total exports was 2.3% in

1995 and 2.7% in 1999. The same figure for imports was 1.7% in 1995

and 1.9% in 1999. As one can see, Turkey's share both in term of

import and exports in EU's trade developed positively and in equal manners.

As of 1999, Turkey is the EU's 7th biggest export destination (up from 9 in 1990) and 13th biggest exporter to the EU (up from 17 in 1990). This shows that both sides profited from the Customs union agreement.


The consequences of CU For consumers the CU has brought better quality,

cheaper products and more variety, because of increased competition in the Turkish market. Consumer protection will be increased as European technical norms are used.

Producers and industry also benefit from cheaper and higher quality inputs, as well as access to a stable and large export market. The existence of a large and stable export market proved its importance during the economic crisis of 1998, when Turkey's exports to major destinations other than the EU declined whereas the EU continued to be the principal export market for Turkey and offset some of the negative effects of the crisis:


The consequences of CU EU share of Turkish exports up from

46,6% in 1997 to 50% in 1998 and 53,9% in 1999 whereas EU imports stayed stable at 51-52% over the same period.

Exports to non-OECD countries in the same period declined from 40,7% in 1997 to 37,1 in 1998 and 29,2% in 1999).


The consequences of CU Almost half of Turkey's total trade is with the EU

in general and this profile has not changed since the Customs Union has been in force.

The EU share in Turkey's exports was 51.2% in 1995 (a year before the entry into force of the CU) and this figure was 52.5% in 2000.

EU imports in Turkey's total imports were 47.2% in 1995 and 48.9% in 2000.

As one can see, the EU share has been stable and fluctuations are mainly due to the instability of the Turkish currency and the Turkish economy.


The consequences of CU Before the Customs Union, in 1993, 1994 and

1995, the EU's share in Turkey's trade deficit stood at 44,56%, 44,15% and 41,09 %, respectively.

In 2000, this figure is at 45,15%. This shows that the Customs Union has not widened the trade deficit in relative terms.

Of course the total absolute trade deficit volume has increased, but this is due to the increase in overall trade and currency fluctuations.


The consequences of CU Turkish exports to the EU in textiles and

clothing reached in 2000 Euro 7,5 bn; this represents an increase of almost 1 bn over 1999 and of 72% over 1995 (4,3 bn Euro); this compares with an increase of total EU imports in the sector of only 54%.

The Turkish surplus in textiles and clothing reached euro 5,8 bn in 2000 - this is an increase of 65% over their surplus in 1995. The Turkish share of EU imports in this sector also increased, from 9,5% in 1995 to 10,8% in 2000.


1999 2000 2001

EU MEMBER Exp İmp.Exp/ Imp

Exp

(%)

Imp

(%)

Exp İmp.Exp/ Imp

Exp

(%)

Imp

(%)

Exp İmp.Exp/ Imp

Exp

(%)

Imp

(%)

Germany 5.475 5.880 93,1 38,2 27,5 5.150 7.150 72,0 35,5 26,9 5.362 5.334 100,5 33,3 29,5

Italy 1.683 3.192 52,7 11,7 14,9 1.748 4.305 40,6 12,0 16,2 2.333 3.480 67,0 14,5 19,3

UK 1.829 2.190 83,5 12,7 10,2 2.020 2.699 74,8 13,9 10,1 2.173 1.800 120,7 13,5 10,0

France, 1.570 3.127 50,2 10,9 14,6 1.643 3.511 46,8 11,3 13,2 1.893 2.284 82,9 11,8 12,6

Netherlands 932 1.315 70,9 6,5 6,1 869 1.561 55,7 6,0 5,9 890 1042 85,4 5,5 5,8

Belgium/Lux 624 1.133 55,1 4,3 5,3 639 1.646 38,8 4,4 6,2 681 890 76,5 4,2 4,9

Spain 763 1.262 60,5 5,3 5,9 683 1.665 41,0 4,7 6,3 945 1062 89,0 5,9 5,9

Austria 312 508 61,4 2,2 2,4 292 514 56,8 2,0 1,9 341 415 82,2 2,1 2,3

Greece 407 303 134,3 2,8 1,4 432 416 103,8 3,0 1,6 473 266 177,8 2,9 1,5

Denmark 199 206 96,6 1,4 1,0 217 196 110,7 1,5 0,7 271 196 138,3 1,7 1,1

Sweden 183 1.444 12,7 1,3 6,7 199 1.437 13,8 1,4 5,4 213 544 39,2 1,3 3,0

Other (*) 371 856 43,3 2,6 4,0 618 1.510 40,9 4,3 5,7 503 748 67,2 3,1 4,1

AB Toplamı 14.348 21.416 67,0 100,0 100,0 14.510 26.610 54,5 100,0 100,0 16.078 18.059 89,0 100,0 100,0

Trade with

Economic and Monetary Union An aspect of the European Union designed to

integrate economic and monetary policies and establish a single currency (the euro). The EMU was created by the 1992 Maastricht Treaty and officially came into existence in 1999. The European Central Bank has control over monetary policy and the money supply for the EMU.

EMU not only mean free movement of citizens, goods and services, and capital but also fixed exchange rates of national currencies and a unique money (the Euro).

In order to reach those goals, joint monetary policy, accommodation of economic policy, specially for fiscal policies, are needed.


www

Euro:a single currency for Europe

The euro is the name of the single European currency that was put into circulation on 1 January 2002. The symbol of the euro is €.

The euro has replaced the old national currencies in 12 European Union countries: Austria, Belgium, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Portugal and Spain.

Having a single currency makes it easier to travel and to compare prices, and it provides a stable environment for European business, stimulating growth and competitiveness.


Obligations for EMU Free movements of goods and services, capital

and labour, Joint tariffs, Fixed exchange rate between national

currencies, Accommodation of economic and monetary

policies, Approached fiscal policies, as possible as, Joint monetary policies against third countries, One central bank: ECB.


For accession to EMU Exact convertibility of all currencies

of joining countries, Complete liberalization of capital

flows and, financial market integration,

Removal of margin to float of national currencies and irreversibly fixed exchange rates.


Customs Union & the EMU In case of a CU,

participants remove tariffs to each other but apply joint tariffs to third trading partners.

CU is a partial agreement which is a stage of the EMU.

In the EMU, two features are very important: free movements of production factors and accommodation of economic and fiscal policies.

The EMU discipline economic and fiscal policies of participant countries because it aimed at stability of those policies.

In the EMU, one important aim is the fairly redistribution of income, so it is most favourable for low income countries.

The EMU is a required stage for accession to EU.


Effects of joining the EMU

Positive effectsmicroeconomic Diminishing transaction costs Removal of exchange rate

uncertainty macroeconomic Progress in inflation and interest

rate Changing Union’s reserve policy Developing capital markets

Negative effects Adjustment problems of member

countries in face of demand shocks.

Alternative choice of inflation-unemployment trade-off for separate country can cause inequality among policy results.

Nominal wage increases depending upon labour markets’ centralisation degrees

Wealth loss for faster growing economies.

Wealth loss due to the financing method of budgetary deficits.


Probable Effects of the EMU on Turkish Economy

Why Turkey is going to be affected directly:

Turkey’s exports to the euro area 39%; imports from 43%

Tourists, foreign investment and workers’ devises are mainly from the euro area

There is a valid Customs Union Agreement with the EU. A great part of the accommodation is already maintained.


Probable Effects of the EMU on Turkish Economy

Indirect effects Those arising from

intensive economic and trade relationship.

Those positively affecting expectations in Turkey, such as falling interest rates, rising investment and faster growth rate in the euro area.

Direct effects Euro shall bring Turkey some

obligations, such as monetary and exchange rate policies.

Euro’s share in Turkey’s reserves has been increased.

Transactions with euro in external trade have been increased.

Macroeconomic stability should be maintained as well as price stability.

Costs of borrowing in terms of euro diminishes.

Firms should take care of real competitive policies.


The Enlarging EUMember States

Germany Austria Belgium France Spain United Kingdom Ireland Italy The Netherlands Denmark Sweden Luxembourg Finland Portugal Greece

New Member States Cyprus, Malta, Hungary, Poland, the Slovak Republic, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, the Czech Republic Slovenia

Applicant Country Romania Bulgaria TURKEY


Enlargement:Looking back on history

The Treaties of Paris (1951), establishing the European Coal and Steel

Community (ECSC), Rome (1957), establishing the European Economic

Community (EEC), EURATOM, were signed by six founding members:

Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, Luxembourg and the Netherlands.

The EU then underwent four successive enlargements: 1973 - Denmark, Ireland and the United Kingdom 1981 – Greece 1986 - Portugal and Spain 1995 - Austria, Finland and Sweden


Copenhagen, 1993 In June 1993, the Copenhagen European

Council opened up the perspective of enlargement to include the countries of Central and Eastern Europe.

The Council laid down the foundations of the current enlargement process by declaring that "the associated countries in Central and Eastern Europe that so desire shall become members of the European Union” and by defining the membership conditions, the so-called Copenhagen criteria.


Under the Copenhagen criteria, membership requires thatthe candidate country ensures :

"stability of institutions guaranteeing democracy, the rule of law, human rights and the respect for and protection of minorities”:

the political criteria.


Since the entry into force of the Treaty of Amsterdam in May 1999, these requirements have been enshrined as constitutional principles in the Treaty on European Union, and have been emphasised in the Charter of Fundamental Rights of the European Union, that was proclaimed at the Nice European Council in December 2000.


“the existence of a functioning market economy as well as the capacity to cope with competitive pressure and market forces within the Union” :the economic criteria.

These criteria are consistent with the principles for economic policies as enshrined in the EC Treaty by the Maastricht Treaty that entered into force on 1 November 1993.


“ability to take on the obligations of membership, including adherence to the aims of political, economic and monetary union".

This criterion refers to the implementation of the Union’s legislation, known as the acquis communautaire. For that reason, it is referred to thereafter as the acquis criterion. Subsequent European Councils, in particular the Madrid European Council in 1995, have highlighted the importance, not only of incorporating the acquis into national legislation, but also of ensuring its effective application through appropriate administrative and judicial structures.

wwwUtku Utkulu&Aydın Arı

Economic Analyses of enlargement

Numerous economic analyses have concluded that the benefits of enlargement outweigh the costs. Although the benefits are relatively larger for the acceding countries, because they start from a lower economic base (their economies represent only about 6% of the GDP of EU-15), there are gains for both sides. Moreover, the future members, already exposed to the challenge of globalisation, will help the Union to surmount it.


Enlargement is a‘positive-sum’ game

A key academic study ("The Costs and Benefits of Eastern Enlargement", R. Baldwin, J.F. François and R. Portes, Economic Policy 24, 1997) by the Centre for Economic Policy Research estimated that accession of countries of Central and Eastern Europe would –even in a conservative scenario– bring an economic gain for the EU-15 of € 10 billion, and for the new members of € 23 billion.

The latest analysis of business circles argues that there are ‘potentially huge economic and business benefits of taking applicant countries into the EU as soon as possible’. ("Opening up the Business Opportunities of EU Enlargement", European Round Table of Industrialists, May 2001. See also "Profiting from EU Enlargement", H. Grabbe, Centre for European Reform, June 2001.)


A recent study of the Commission estimates that enlargement could increase the growth of GDP of the acceding countries by between 1.3 and 2.1 percentage points annually, and for the existing members it could increase the level of GDP by 0.7 percentage point on a cumulative basis. ("The Economic Impact of Enlargement", a study by the Directorate General for Economic and Financial Affairs, May 2001)


Concerning the budgetary consequences of enlargement, the framework has already been decided by the European Council in Berlin, and includes a modest amount (less than 10%) for transfers to the Central and East European countries for the period up to 2006. In the longer term, after 2006, expenditure will depend on a series of decisions to be taken in the fields of cohesion policy, agricultural policy, etc. The increase in the budget resulting from enlargement will be a political rather than an economic issue.


There have been several analyses of the impact of enlargement on the labour market and migratory flows. One of them suggested that only about 335,000 people would move to the EU-15 countries from Central and Eastern Europe even if there were free movement of workers immediately on accession. In fact, the Union has now agreed on a flexible transition period of up to seven years for limiting the inflow of workers from new member states.


Costs of non-enlargement Non-enlargement, or a delay in enlargement, would have

costs both for the Union and for the applicant countries: Delay in enlarging the single market, and lower economic

growth in the applicant countries, would deprive member states of economic benefits.

For the applicant countries failure to join the Union would weaken the incentive for economic reform, discourage foreign investment and reduce economic growth.

It could thus create political instability in Europe, and even undermine the process of democratisation, with potential repercussions for the Union.

Without enlargement, the Union would be less able to combat the problems of organised crime, illegal immigration and terrorism.


The EU-Turkey: A Brief History 31 July 1959 application for membership of the

Community 12 September 1963 Ankara Agreement, which

came into force on 1 December 1964. The cornerstone of this agreement is the establishment of a customs union in three stages. A Financial Protocol accompanied this agreement.

A second and third Financial Protocol were signed in 1970 and 1977 respectively. The Ankara Agreement also set up an Association Council that meets regularly and discusses the work of the association.

Utku Utkulu&Aydın Arıwww

http://www.deltur.cec.eu.int/english/eu-turkey.html

The EU-Turkey: A Brief History On 14 April 1987 Turkey presented its application

for membership of the Community. The Commission adopted its opinion on the application on 18 December 1989.

On 6 March 1995 the EC-Turkey Association Council decided to move onto the final stage of the customs union and resume financial cooperation.

On 13 December 1995 Parliament gave its assent to the customs union.

The Decision on the final phase of customs union came into force on 31 December 1995; on the institutional front, it set up a consultation body, the Customs Union Joint Committee.


Developments in the enlargement process


The Luxembourg European Council of December 1997 confirmed "Turkey's eligibility for accession to the European Union".As requested by the Luxembourg European Council, the Commission adopted on 4 March 1998 the initial operational proposals of the "European Strategy for Turkey“.

The European Council in Helsinki (December 1999) welcomed "recent positive developments in Turkey, as well as its intention to continue its reform towards complying with the Copenhagen criteria. Turkey is a candidate State on the basis of the same criteria as applied to the other candidate States.“

Developments in the enlargement process

The Accession Partnership was formally adopted by the EU Council on 8 March 2001, is a roadmap of the priorities for Turkey in making progress towards meeting all the criteria for accession to the EU.

On the basis of this Accession Partnership Turkish Government has adopted on 19 March 2001 its National Programme for the Adoption of the Acquis. (NPAA) The programme provides a wide-ranging agenda of political and economic reform.


The Gothenburg European CouncilJune 2001

regarded the National Programme as a "welcome development" and "urged Turkey” at the same time to take concrete measures to implement the priorities of the Accession Partnership, which is the cornerstone of the pre-accession strategy. The decisions in Helsinki have brought Turkey closer to the EU and opened up new prospects for her European aspirations. However, "in a number of areas such as human rights, further progress is needed.” “The Council is invited to adopt the single financial framework for pre-accession assistance to Turkey by the end of the year at the latest. The economic programme agreed with the IMF must be vigorously implemented to create the conditions for economic recovery.”


The Laeken CouncilDecember 2001

adopted a regulation on pre-accession financial assistance to Turkey. This new regulatory framework ensures an accession driven approach of EC's financial co-operation with Turkey.

Turkey has made progress towards complying with the political criteria established for accession, in particular through the recent amendment of its constitution. This has brought forward the prospect of the opening of accession negotiations with Turkey. Turkey is encouraged to continue its progress towards complying with both economic and political criteria, notably with regard to human rights. The pre-accession strategy for Turkey should mark a new stage in analysing its preparedness for alignment on the acquis.


The Seville European CouncilJune 2002

The European Council welcomes the reforms recently adopted in Turkey. It encourages and fully supports the efforts made by Turkey to fulfil the priorities defined in its Accession Partnership. The implementation of the required political and economic reforms will bring forward Turkey’s prospects of accession in accordance with the same principles and criteria as are applied to the other candidate countries. New decisions could be taken in Copenhagen on the next stage of Turkey’s candidature in the light of developments in the situation between the Seville and Copenhagen European Councils, on the basis of the regular report to be submitted by the Commission in October 2002 and in accordance with the Helsinki and Laeken conclusions.


The Copenhagen CouncilDecember 2002

The Union declared welcome

10 States as members from

1 May 2004:

Cyprus, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, the Slovak Republic Slovenia.


The Copenhagen Council on Turkey: recalls its decision in 1999 in Helsinki that Turkey is a

candidate state destined to join the Union on the basis of the same criteria as applied to the other candidate states.

strongly welcomes the important steps taken by Turkey towards meeting the Copenhagen criteria, in particular through the recent legislative packages and the subsequent implementation measures which cover a large number of key priorities specified in the Accession Partnership.

acknowledges the determination of the new Turkish government to take further steps on the path of reform and urges in particular the government to address swiftly all remaining shortcomings in the field of the political criteria, not only with regard to legislation but also in particular with regard to implementation.


The Copenhagen Council on Turkey: recalls that, according to the Copenhagen political criteria,

membership requires that a candidate country has achieved stability of institutions guaranteeing democracy, the rule of law, human rights and respect for and protection of minorities.

encourages Turkey to pursue energetically its reform process. If the European Council in December 2004, on the basis of a report and a recommendation from the Commission, decides that Turkey fulfils the Copenhagen political criteria, the European Union will open accession negotiations with Turkey without delay.

In order to assist Turkey towards EU membership, the accession strategy for Turkey shall be strengthened. The Commission is invited to submit a proposal for a revised Accession Partnership and to intensify the process of legislative scrutiny. In parallel, the EC-Turkey Customs Union should be extended and deepened. The Union will significantly increase its pre-accession financial assistance for Turkey. This assistance will from 2004 be financed under the budget heading "pre-accession expenditure".


THESSALONIKI COUNCILJUNE 2003

welcomes the commitment of the Turkish government to carry forward the reform process, in particular the remaining legislative work by the end of 2003,

supports its on-going efforts made in order to fulfil the Copenhagen political criteria for opening accession negotiations with the Union.

adopted recently a revised Accession Partnership, which sets out the priorities that Turkey should pursue, supported by substantially increased pre-accession financial assistance. In accordance with the Helsinki conclusions, fulfilment of these priorities will assist Turkey towards EU membership.

The Accession Partnership constitutes the cornerstone of EU-Turkey relations, in particular in view of the decision to be taken by the European Council in December 2004.


EU - Turkey: Glossary Pre-accession strategy: a framework of activity

which usually combines priority setting, technical and financial assistance, and preparation of the negotiations through 'screening'. It helps the candidate countries to prepare for their future membership by aligning with the Union's acquis before accession. It centres on the Accession Partnerships, the Europe Agreements (in the case of applicants with such agreements) and participation in Community programmes and agencies. To date the strategy followed with Turkey has been a specific one, reflecting the particular situation of that country.


EU - Turkey: Glossary Accession Partnership (AP): a text drawn up by

the EU in consultation with the candidate country, which sets out the key short and medium term priorities to be met in order to prepare for membership. It indicates the financial assistance available from the EU in support of these priorities. (A conditionality clause, not as yet invoked, refers to the implications for financial assistance in case of insufficient progress towards meeting the Copenhagen criteria or failure to meet Europe Agreement obligations).


EU - Turkey: Glossary National programme for the adoption of the

acquis (NPAA) is an comprehensive multi-annual operational plan, drawn up by the candidate country, (often with technical assistance from the EU) which indicates the timetable foreseen for the implementation of the 'acquis' and other accession priorities, the institutional implications regarding enforcement of the 'acquis' and the financial implications. (An assessment of each programme is included in the corresponding regular report.)


EU - Turkey: Glossary Europe Agreements, concluded with the ten

East European candidates, set out legal obligations, notably on trade, competition, public procurement etc and provide for institutional dialogue and monitoring. They are a key element of the pre-accession strategy. A new structure of sub-committees focused on accession priorities was agreed with the candidate countries, in order to facilitate closer monitoring. A similar role in the case of Turkey is played by the Customs Union Agreement.


EU-Turkey: Present Day

The decision on the candidate status of Turkey in Helsinki in 1999 has encouraged Turkey to introduce a series of fundamental reforms.

In order to reach membership to the EU, Turkey has to fulfil some obligations as cited in her National Programme.


Enflasyon oranı Bütçe Açığı/GSYİH Devlet Borçları/GSYİH Uzun dönem faiz1998 1999 2000 1998 1999 2000 1998 1999 2000 1998 1999 2000

Almanya 0,6 0,6 1,2 -2,1 -1,6 -1,2 61,1 61,8 61,3 4,6 5 6Fransa 0,7 0,6 1,1 -2,9 -2,1 -1,7 58,8 59,4 59 4,7 5,1 6,1İtalya 2 1,7 1,8 -2,7 -2,2 -1,7 118,7 117,5 114,7 4,9 5,2 6,2İspanya 1,8 2,2 2,2 -1,8 -1,4 -0,8 65,1 64 62 4,8 5,2 6,2Hollanda 1,8 2 2,2 -0,9 -1,3 -1 67,5 65,2 61,6 4,7 5,1 6,1Belçika 0,9 1,1 1,2 -1,3 -1 -0,7 118,2 116,3 112,9 4,8 5,2 6,2Avusturya 0,8 0,5 1,1 -2,1 -2,2 -2,6 63 63,2 63,2 4,3 5,3 6,1Lüksemburg 1 1 1,2 2,1 2,2 2,1 6,9 7,1 7,2Finlandiya 1,4 1,3 1,9 1,4 3,5 4,1 49,7 43,2 38,3 4,8 5,2 6,2Portekiz 2,2 2,2 2,5 -1,5 -1,3 -1,2 57,8 56,1 54,6 4,9 5,4 6,3İrlanda 2,1 2,5 2,5 2,3 2,9 3,1 49,5 47 39,3 4,8 5,3 6,2EURO Alanı 1,2 1,1 1,5 -2 -1,6 -1,2 73,5 73,1 71,5 4,6 5 6,1Danimarka 1,3 2,1 2,2 0,9 3 2,6 58 54,8 51,2 4,9 5,4 6,2İngiltere 1,5 1,3 1,5 0,2 -0,6 -1,2 48,7 46,1 42,1 5,5 5,2 6,4İsveç 1 0,6 1,5 2,3 1,9 2,2 74,2 69,5 61,7 5 5,6 6,3Yunanistan 4,5 2,3 1,9 -2,4 -1,9 -1,6 106,3 104,5 103 8 6,5 6,4AB 15 1,3 1,2 1,5 -1,5 -1 -0,6 69,6 68,6 66,3 5 5,3 6,2Türkiye 69,7 64,9 39 -7,2 -10,6 -11,5 43 75 80 115,5 109,5 39,3En iyi üç 0,7 0,6 1,1Referans 2,2 2,4 2,6 -3 -3 -3 60 60 60

Maastricht Convergence criteria:

The EU members and Turkey


TÜRKİYE birim 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 en son veri

Reel GSYİH büyümesi % 7,0 7,5 3,1 -4,7 7,2 -6,1 Oc-eylül

Enflasyon Oranı (TÜFE)

Yıllık ortalama % 80,4 85,7 84,6 64,9 54,6 54.4

Aralık ayı1 % 79,8 99,1 69,7 68,8 39,0 68,5

Yıl sonu işsizlik oranı (ILO tanımı) % 6,7 6,5 6,8 7,6 6,6 6,9 Haziran

Bütçe dengesi GSYİH oranı -8,4 -13,4 -11,9 -21,8 -11,0 -29,7 oc-eylül

Cari işlemler dengesi GSYİH oranı -1,4 -1,4 1,0 -0,7 -4,9 0,8 Oc-hz

Cari işlemler dengesi Milyon euro -1945 -2333 1766 -1276 -10574 288 Oc-kası

Dış borç

borç/ihracat oranı % 171,2 155,9 156,1 199,6 210,2

brüt dış borç Milyon euro 52797 64308 67583 80196 108865 135935 Oc-eylü

Doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar

ödemeler dengesi GSYİH oranı 0,4 0,4 0,5 0,4 0,5 2,6 Oc-hz

m.euro 576 712 837 735 1063 1874 Oc-hz


Macroeconomic Developments in 2002

GDP and GNP increased by 7.8 %. The unemployment rate increased from 8.4 % in 2001 to

10.3 % in 2002. CPI increased by 30.8 % and the WPI increased by 29.7

%. In respect of 2001, CPI and WPI declined by 57.8 % and 38.8 %, respectively.

Imports (CIF) are 50.8 billion US Dollars. Exports (FOB), reached 35.1 billion US Dollars. Accordingly, the foreign trade deficit reached 8.6 billion US Dollars.

The share of EU countries in total exports maintained the same level – 51.5 % - as in the previous year and the amount of exports to EU countries reached 18.1 billion US Dollars.

The share of EU countries in total imports increased to 45.5 % (23.1 billion US Dollars).

The current account deficit is 1.8 billion US Dollars.

Macroeconomic Developments in 2002

Total foreign debt reached 131.6 billion US Dollars. The ratio of the total foreign debt to GDP reached 71.7 %.

The ratio of consolidated budget deficit to GDP reached 14.5 %.

The ratio of PSBR to GDP decreased by 3.9 points with respect to the previous year and reach 12.4 %.

The ratio of domestic debt stock to GDP declined from 68.5 % in 2001 to 54.3 % in 2002.

Although the average tender and public offer interest rate in cash borrowings was 99% on a compound basis in 2001, it decreased to 57.2 % in 2002.

In addition, the average maturity period for borrowings was extended from 4.8 months to 9 months in 2002.

National Programme for the Adoption of the Acquis

Turkey adopted the National Programme for the Adoption of the European Union Acquis in March 24, 2001.

The revised version of the "National Programme for the Adoption of the Acquis" and the "Decision on the Implementation and Coordination and Monitoring of the NPAA" is published in the Official Gazette dated 24 July 2003, No. 25178bis.


www

Political Criteria

1- Freedom of Thought and Expression2- Freedom of Association, Right to Peaceful

Assembly, and Civil Society3- Prevention of Torture and Maltreatment4- Human Rights Training of Public Officials5- Functioning and Efficiency of the Judiciary6- Prison, Detention and Custody Standards7- Full Enjoyment of All Fundamental Rights and

Freedoms by All Individuals without Discrimination

8- Functioning of the Executive9- Agreements


Economic criteria Fulfilment of the Copenhagen criteria and

convergence with the Maastricht criteria are the main perspectives of economic policy during the accession period.

Strengthening the market economy and improving the competitiveness of the economy are priority targets.

Within this framework, special emphasis will be given to reducing the role of the public sector through privatisation, transferring the regulatory role of state to independent regulatory bodies, strengthening the private enterprise system, and removing the legislative obstacles and economic uncertainties which adversely affect the operation of the free market economy.

Economic criteria Therefore, measures for improvement of the

investment environment both in the legislative and economic sense, full liberalisation of the free movement of capital, and promotion of foreign investments will be maintained.

Moreover, financial sector reform, the efforts to increase the competitiveness of the sectors under state monopoly and implementation of the privatisation programme will also continue.

Another essential objective of economic policy is the reduction of disparities between Turkey and the EU.

Some important web sitesEuropean Union official web sites:http://europa.eu.int/index_en.htmRepresentation of the European Commission to Turkey:http://www.deltur.cec.eu.int/main-t.htmlMinistry of Foreign Affairs:http://www.mfa.gov.tr/Economic Development Foundation:http://www.ikv.org.tr/Bilgi University European Documentation Centre:http://library.bilgi.edu.tr/screens/edc.htmlSecretariat General for the EU Affairswww.abgs.gov.trCentral Bank of the Republic of the Turkey:http://www.tcmb.gov.trInteractive map of Europehttp://europa.eu.int/abc/maps/index_en.htm


http://europa.eu.int/index_en.htm

http://europa.eu.int/index_en.htm

http://www.deltur.cec.eu.int/main-t.html

http://www.mfa.gov.tr/



http://www.ikv.org.tr/



http://library.bilgi.edu.tr/screens/edc.html

http://library.bilgi.edu.tr/screens/edc.html

http://www.tcmb.gov.tr/

http://www.tcmb.gov.tr/

http://europa.eu.int/abc/maps/index_en.htm

http://europa.eu.int/abc/maps/index_en.htm

The European Union–Turkey: Economic Relationships Utku UTKULU, Prof. Dokuz Eylül University FEAS,...

Documents

Transcript of The European Union–Turkey: Economic Relationships Utku UTKULU, Prof. Dokuz Eylül University FEAS,...