THE EUROPEAN LIGNITE TRIANGLE. · 2020. 9. 14. · CCGT OCGT / GAS PEAKER FLEX CHP BIOGAS OTHER...
Transcript of THE EUROPEAN LIGNITE TRIANGLE. · 2020. 9. 14. · CCGT OCGT / GAS PEAKER FLEX CHP BIOGAS OTHER...
THE EUROPEAN LIGNITE TRIANGLE.SCENARIOS FOR A SECURE, COST-EFFECTIVE AND SUSTAINABLE ENERGY
SECTOR TRANSFORMATION www.forum-energii.eu
Background
Coal production and imports in Europe in 2019
PORTUGAL
2.8
SPAIN
8.5
FRANCESWITZERLAND
10.40.1
BELGIUM
3.9
NETHERLANDS
10.3
40.3
131.3
6.8 1.4
61.62.2
UNITED KINGDOM
6.8IRELAND
0.3DENMARK
37.5
3.4 3.4CZECHIA
TURKEY
HUNGARY1.1 0.4
SLOVENIA
0.5
38.9
SERBIA
1.5 3.4
SLOVAKIA
<0.121.125.5
UKRAINE
POLAND
2.4
50.3
16.7
36.1
85.8
1.2
LITHUANIA0.3
LATVIA<0.1
ESTONIA<0.1
FINLAND
3.1
SWEDEN2.3
NORWAY0.1 0.8
BELARUS0.1*
MOLDOVA
0.1
CROATIA0.7
AUSTRIA
GERMANY
3.6
ITALY
10.8
13.21.5
BOSNIA& HERZEGOVINA
8.1 <0.1KOSOVO
21.71.0
ROMANIA
28.00.6
BULGARIA5.5 <0.1
NORTH MACEDONIA
0.3* 0.1*ALBANIA 27.3
0.4GREECE
LIGNITE
EU-28 MLN TONNES
HARD COAL
IMPORTS
* 2018 DATA
308
67
134
MONTENEGRO1.6
Source: Forum Energii based on EURACOAL
Background
Coal gap
CO2 emissions reduction
Regional strategy
Lack of profitability of new coal projects
The transformation has already started
need for new, low-carbon capacities.
old/new EU targets for 2030 and 2050; lignite as the most emissive fuel.
Germany, Poland and the Czech Republic are the main EU lignite producers. Interactions need to be analysed.
rising CO2-prices in the ETS.
no proper decisions to address the challenge.
security of supply
electricity trade balance and electricity flows
reduction of CO2 emissions
wholesale electricity prices and overall costs
Objective of the analysis
Impact assessment of parallel lignite phase-out in Poland, Czech Republic and Germany.
Approach
Elaborating reference scenario – current energy plans of the Czech Republic, Poland and Germany.
Two scenarios of lignite phase-out by: 2032, 2035
Analysis of technological and economic conditions in the Triangle countries.
Modelling – hourly simulations of connected power systems; cost optimisation.
recommendations of the Commission for Growth, Stability and Employment in early 2019, coal phase-out by 2038, 65% RES by 2030.
“Poland's Energy Policy 2040”, 2018 version; no nuclear power; cost-based decisions for both conventional and RES capacities.
National Energy and Climate Plan and capacity planning by ČEZ; more ambitious development of RES, no new nuclear power.
PL
DE
CZ
Starting point – reference scenario
Key results
Germany
Electricity generation
64 52
76
7359
61 72
55
6449
56 5963
81
96
42
46 73
-37 -47-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800 TWh
30 191
117
168
30
126
665
7
33
29108
138
123
28123
633 28
197
165
577 585607
-63
65%80%
2020 202520232021 20242022 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 20362031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2037 2038 2039 2040
NET IMPORTSSOLAR
BIOMASSOCGT / GAS PEAKER BIOGASFLEX CHPCCGT
COALLIGNITENUCLEAROTHER
X% GROSS RES SHARE
WIND ONSHOREWIND OFFSHOREHYDRO1
Source: Aurora Energy Research. 1) Hydro includes run-of-river, hydro storage and pump storage
200
150
100
50
02020 2025 2030 2035 2040
300 MtCO2
250 233
191
148121120
118117
191139
286
Cumulative savings reference vs. 2032 phase-out: ~410MtCO2
REFERENCE SCENARIO 2035 PHASE-OUT 2032 PHASE-OUT
Source: Aurora Energy Research
Power sector CO2 emissions – all scenarios
-24-30
9
50 TWh
-50
EXPORT
IMPORTS
-100
0
2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
-37-35 -46
-43 -63
-70
REFERENCE SCENARIO 2035 PHASE-OUT 2032 PHASE-OUT
Source: Aurora Energy Research
Electricity trade balance
30
35
40
45
50
55 EUR/MWh (real 2018)
2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
45
51 51 5150 50 50
47
5050 -3
REFERENCE SCENARIO 2035 PHASE-OUT 2032 PHASE-OUT
Source: Aurora Energy Research
Wholesale electricity prices – all scenarios
Source: Aurora Energy Research, Netztransparenz.de.Note: The payment for RES support is the difference between set level of RES support and achieved market revenue.
System costs
bn EUR (real 2018)
0
40
10
60
2030
50
2028
52.1
20322020 2022 2024 2026 20402030 2034 2036 2038
53.545.7 41.3 39.6
SUBSIDY CHPWHOLESALE COST PAYMENT FOR RES SUPPORT
0
50
10203040
60 53.5 52.145.5 42.3 37.4
-10
4030
0
50
10
60
20
46.953.5 52.1
42.0 37.0
2035 PHASE-OUT
2032 PHASE-OUT
REFERENCE SCENARIO
Poland
Source: Aurora Energy Research1) Hydro includes run-of-river, hydro storage and pump storage
Electricity generation
OTHERS
WIND ONSHORE SOLARHYDRO1 WIND OFFSHOREBIOMASSBIOGAS
FLEX CHPOCGT / GAS PEAKERCCGTCOALLIGNITE
12 11
49 50 29
5639
40
35 25
1921
2945
47
17 30 44
14 30 35 39401 11
1519
1
0
40
80
120
160
200
240 TWh
6
8
99
188201
8
215
2
166177
NET IMPORTS
20342021 203820232022 20282024 20322025 20372026 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035 2036 2039 20402030
DSR
2020
124 108
85
63
107
72
4955
2020 2025 2030 2035 204020
120
140
40
60
80
100
160 MtCO2
128 124115
89
76
5766
56
NECP
Cumulative savings reference vs. 2032 phase-out: ~158MtCO2
REFERENCE SCENARIO 2035 PHASE-OUT 2032 PHASE-OUT
Power sector CO2 emissions – all scenarios
Source: Aurora Energy Research
11
6
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16 TWh
2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
12
6
9
11
98
6
98
REFERENCE SCENARIO 2035 PHASE-OUT 2032 PHASE-OUT
Source: Aurora Energy Research
Electricity trade balance
67
59
55
62 66 66
30
40
70
60
50
EUR/MWh (real 2018)
2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
68-2
REFERENCE SCENARIO 2035 PHASE-OUT 2032 PHASE-OUT
Source: Aurora Energy Research
Wholesale electricity prices – all scenarios
Source: Aurora Energy Research
System costs
0
10
20 bn EUR (real 2018)15.7
11.9 12.3 14.216.6
20
0
10
14.311.9 12.1
15.7 16.8
0
10
2015.814.5
12.111.916.9
WHOLESALE COST CAPACITY MARKET COSTSUBSIDY CHPSUBSIDY RES NEWBUILDSUBSIDY RES EXISTING
20342021 203820232022 20282024 20322025 20372026 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035 2036 2039 204020302020
2035 PHASE-OUT
2032 PHASE-OUT
REFERENCE SCENARIO
Czech Republic
Electricity generation
Source: Aurora Energy Research.1) Hydro includes run-of-river, hydro storage and pump storage.
27 28
5 4
30 30
28 27 26
188 8
6
8 9
123
11 14
-5
4 5 6
-15
0
15
30
45
60
75
90 TWh
1
-3
3
2
3
6771
73 75 771
20342021 203820232022 20282024 20322025 20372026 2027 20292020 2031 2033 2035 2036 2039 20402030
NET IMPORTS COALLIGNITE
HYDRO1FLEX CHP
NUCLEAR CCGT
OCGT / GAS PEAKER BIOGAS BIOMASS
WIND ONSHORE SOLAR
2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
30
35
45
40
MtCO2
25
20
15
10
5
0
17
26
4038
21
16
99
REFERENCE SCENARIO 2035 PHASE-OUT 2032 PHASE-OUT
Cumulative savings reference vs. 2032 phase-out: ~95 MtCO2
Power sector CO2 emissions – all scenarios
Source: Aurora Energy Research.
Electricity trade balance
-3
2020 2025 2035 2040
0
-1.5
-3.0
-4.5
-6.0
-7.5
1.5
3.0
4.5
6.0
7.5 TWh
2030
-5
4.5
3
0.3
4
-0.5
-2
3
-1
0
REFERENCE SCENARIO 2035 PHASE-OUT 2032 PHASE-OUT
EXPORT
IMPORT
Source: Aurora Energy Research.
402020 2025 2030 2035 2040
45
50
55
60 EUR/MWh ('2018)
5657
55
53
48
53 52
4951
47
-8
REFERENCE SCENARIO 2035 PHASE-OUT 2032 PHASE-OUT
Wholesale electricity prices – all scenarios
Source: Aurora Energy Research.
Source: Aurora Energy Research.
6
4
10
7 bn EUR (real 2018)
5
23
5.95.05.3 5.9
4.7
SUBSIDY CHPSUBSIDY RES NEWBUILDSUBSIDY RES EXISTINGWHOLESALE COST
5
3
012
4
76 5.3 5.9 5.8
5.04.3
7
0123
6
45
5.3 5.9 5.94.8 4.2
20342021 203820232022 20282024 20322025 20372026 2027 20292020 2031 2033 2035 2036 2039 20402030
2035 PHASE-OUT
2032 PHASE-OUT
REFERENCE SCENARIO
System costs
CO2 emissions reduction in power sector between 2020 and 2030
The faster the phase-out (2032 scenario), the faster emissions drop
between 2020 and 2030
2020 2030: REFERENCE SCENARIO
2030: 2032 PHASE-OUT
226
301
448
0
200
100
300
400
500 MtCO2
-50% -24%in lignite triangle
in the EU-27 -33%
Lignite phase-out brings significant CO2 reductions in the EU
-47% PL
-51% DE
-44% CZ
● The decline of lignite is inevitable. Key decisions and coordinated regional action are needed.
● Security of supply in the region can be ensured even if we speed up the phase-out of lignite, but such a transformation requires a plan.
● A move away from lignite can significantly reduce CO2 emissions in the region
and in the EU.
● Leaving lignite faster will not cost more.
● Accelerated withdrawal from lignite reduces electricity imports.
● Date of lignite exit: 2032 is realistic.
● To phase out lignite successfully, an alignment of strategy is necessary. This includes the future role of gas in the system.
Summary
Thank you for attention