The EU PESETA project: effects of climate change in Europe

Juan Carlos Ciscar, EC, DG JRC, IPTSEuropean Week of Regions and Cities

11 October 2007, Brussels

OutlineOutline

1. About PESETAo Background, Purposeso Approach, Sectors and partnerso The Climate Scenarioso Methodologieso Adaptation

2. Early results (EC Green Paper on Adaptation to Climate Change)

Background

European Council (March 2004) request: analysing costs and benefits of EU post-2012 climate policy

“Winning the battle against climate change” EC Communication (2005)

"Limiting Global Climate Change to 2 degrees Celsius. The way ahead for 2020 and beyond" EC Communication (2007)

Green Paper on Adaptation to climate change impacts (2007)

Main Purposes

Quantitative assessment of the monetary estimates of impacts of climate change in Europe

Potentially useful for policymakers

Based on bottom-up physical assessments

Applying existing methods/studies

Sectors and PartnersSix sectors

Agriculture: U. Politécnica de Madrid, A. Iglesias

Human health: AEA Technology, L. Horrocks/P. Watkiss

River basin flooding: JRC/IES, A. de Roo/L. Feyen

Energy demand: FEDEA, J. M. Labeaga

Coastal systems: FEEM/Southampton U., R. Nicholls

Tourism: U. Maastricht-ICIS, P. Martens/B. Amelung

Climate Scenarios

Data needs: 50 km resolution; daily and monthly

Selection of scenarios 2011-2040 period: A2 IPCC SRES scenario

data from the Rossby Center 2071-2100 period: data from PRUDENCE

A2, B2 IPCC SRES scenarios <cost of inaction> 2 regional climate models, RCMs (HIRHAM, RCA) 2 global circulation models, GCMs (HadCM3, ECHAM4)

Methodologies for Physical Impacts Assessment

Detailed process modelling Agriculture, DSSAT crop model River basin flooding, LISFLOOD hydrological model Coastal systems, DIVA model

Reduced-form exposure-response functions Energy Tourism Human Health

Adaptation measures

Agriculture: farm-level adaptation No constraint on water irrigation No constraints on use of fertilizers

Coastal zones: “hard” adaptation measures Building dikes Beach nourishment

Rest of sectors

Temp, Precipit. A2 Scenario, 2071-2100

Effects in agriculture

A2 scenario

2071-2100

Effects in heat-, and cold-related mortality

Tourism climate index

River discharge

A2 scenario

2071-2100

Adaptation Assessments

Treatment of the cascade of uncertainty in a systematic way: probabilistic approach

Integrate further sectors (water); include other sectors

Dynamic land use scenarios

Possible research needs

http://peseta.jrc.es/

THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION