THE ESM EURO AREA FINANCIAL STABILITY IN SAFE HANDS€¦ · Erasmus University, 31 January 2020...
Transcript of THE ESM EURO AREA FINANCIAL STABILITY IN SAFE HANDS€¦ · Erasmus University, 31 January 2020...
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THE ESM – EURO AREA FINANCIAL STABILITY IN SAFE HANDS
Erasmus University, 31 January 2020
Rolf Strauch, ESM Chief Economist
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THE EURO – SYMBOL OF EUROPEAN INTEGRATION
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SUPPORT FOR THE EURO IS AT RECORD HIGH
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Source: Standard Eurobarometer, November 2019
More than 3/4 of respondents in the euro area support the common currency
Eurobarometer: Is having the euro a good or bad thing for the EU? (% responses)
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SOME MARKET ANALYSTS EXPECTED THE EURO TO FAIL IN 2010/11
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DUE TO HIGH BORROWING COSTS, GREECE LOST MARKET ACCESS
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33.70
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
01-2010 05-2011 09-2012 02-2014 06-2015 11-2016 03-2018 08-2019
Greece 10-year bond yields (%)
Source: Bloomberg
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OVERVIEW OF EFSF AND ESM PROGRAMMES
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Total amount
disbursed by
EFSF and ESM:
€295 bn
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CONDITIONALITY
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Common types of reforms implemented by beneficiary countries:
• Fiscal consolidation – measures to cut government expenditure, by
reducing public administration costs and improving its efficiency, and to
increase revenue through privatisations or tax reform;
• Structural reforms – measures to boost potential growth, create jobs, and
improve competitiveness;
• Financial sector reforms – measures to strengthen banking supervision
and governance; bank recapitalisation
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GREECE’S ECONOMY HAS BEEN GROWING AGAIN SINCE 2017
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-9.1-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Greece's GDP (annual % change)
Values for 2019-2021 are forecasts. Source: European Commission Economic Forecast Autumn 2019
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LARGE FISCAL DEFICITS WERE REDUCED
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Fiscal balance (% of GDP)
Source: AMECO (forecast figures for 2019)
-32.1
-15.1
-11.4 -11.3
-8.7
0.21.3
-0.1 -2.3
3.7
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
Ireland Greece Portugal Spain Cyprus
Crisis peak 2019
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BUDGETARY SAVINGS THANKS TO EURO AREA SOLIDARITY
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In € billion As % of GDP
Cyprus 0.4 1.9
Greece 13 7
Ireland 0.8 0.2
Spain 1.6 0.1
Portugal 1.5 0.7
• EFSF/ESM programmes lead to substantial budgetary savings for programme countries
Figures for 2018. Calculated by comparing the effective interest rate payments on EFSF/ESM loans with the interest payments that these countries would have paid had they covered their financing needs in the market. The yields on 10-year bonds are taken as a proxy long-term market rate.
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BANKING UNION, THOUGH INCOMPLETE, HAS STRENGTHENED FINANCIAL STABILITY
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• Single Supervisory Mechanism (1st pillar)
• Single Resolution Mechanism and Single Resolution Fund (2nd pillar)
• Single rulebook: harmonised rules on capital requirements, recovery and resolution
• 3rd pillar is missing: European deposit insurance scheme
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STRONGER ROLE FOR ESM
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The ESM will be given new tasks when the revised ESM Treaty is agreed and ratified by all 19 Member States
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LEARN MORE ABOUT THE ESM
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Website:
www.esm.europa.eu
Follow us on social media:
Twitter: @ESM_Press
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/user/esmvideochannel
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/european-stability-
mechanism/