THE ESIA WID MACRO COMPONENT PROJECT · VOLUME IV NO. 3 MAY-JUNE 1986 ISSN 0115-9097 I I illl I I...

VOLUME IV NO. 3 MAY-JUNE 1986 ISSN 0115-9097

I I illl I I III I II ill

THE ESIA/WID MACRO COMPONENT PROJECTIIII IIIII III lill II II I

EDITOR'S NOTE: The formulation of the country's first medium- and long-term Introductiondevelopment plans formally institurionalized the planning cycles in government plan-

ning agencies. This development brought about the need to come up with mechanisms The need for statistical informationwhich could keep track of the develop-that would monitor the degree of achievement of specified targets in development plans.merit processes has long been recognized

The efforts of the National Census and Statistics OJJice (NCSO) and the Development

Academy of the Philippines (DAP) in the early 70s are noted in this area, as these agen- ; in the country. In the early 70s, thecies separately developed a set of indicators ro be used as guides for planning and _ Bureau of Census and Statistics

Office (now the National Census andevaluation of social development programs and the assessment of'social progress.

Statistics Office) developed a set ofIn June 1978, the National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA), in

cooperation with the U.S. Agency for International Development (U.S.AJ.D.) and indicators intended to be used in thethrough the Philippine Institute fbr Development Studies (P1DS), sought to formulate a planning and assessment of social devel-

opment progr_s and in the measure-

I_mework for the establishment of impact indicators also for purposes of evaluation.

is was clone through the setting up of the ECONOMIC AND SOCL4L IMPACT ment of social progress (BCS, 1973).ANALYSIS�WOMEN IN DEVELOPMENT {ESIA/WID} PROJECT. Over a five-year The indicators covered a fairly wideperiod (1978-1983), the project aimed to help improve the economic and social well- spectrum of sociN welfare concernsbeing of the disadvantaged groups in the Philippines indirectly by strengthening govern- (e.g., population, health, nutrition,ment planning and evaluation capabilities. This required the development and testing of housing, education and culture), but

for each area of concern, they weremore effective methodologies for measuring and monitoring economic progress andsocial change; and [or assessing the impact of individual development projects, especially limited to those which could be construc-on the rural poor. ted on the basis of available data.

This issue of the Development Research News brings attention to one of the major Sometime in 1974, the NationalEconomic and Development Authoritycomponents of the ESIA/WID project .... the MACRO COMPONENT. Our guest writer

is Generoso de Guzrnan, the Component's Deputy Pro/ect Manager, and c_rrently the (NEDA), through its Economic PlanningAssistant Director of the Statistical Programs and Standards Staff of the NEDA. and Research Staff, initiated the pre-

On another matter, we are also featuring the second installment of our 6ZEAR[NG- paration of a set of sectoral performanceHOUSE PROJECT ON STUDIES RELATED TO ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT indicators as a tool for establishing

PLANNING AND POLICY-MAKING IN THE PHILIPPINES. Studies included in this quantifiable targets for assessing the

batch are those which have been submitted to us by various institutions since October performance of the various sectoral1985.q

"_' _NTENTS: ' ' !' '_ : PAGE

TIlE ESIA/WID MACRO COMPONENT PROJECT 1: . ._ Q i • . . _ 4 _ i ...... 4 ............... b _ . . . •

!c;_DATE: ' =

i" ' PUBLICAI-NSTO ...................... ..................................... S; : O_OING',_ _,_.-- PROJECTS. ...... ................ ................................... 9, ,¢_EI_e!ARS - ........................ , ........................................... 10

_ _,PID_BLICATIONS AVAILABLE ......... i ....................................... 11

, ;.!i'!_A_G!tOUSE' SUPPLEMENT,.. ....... , .......... , .............................. 12-23

:_::__SI_E!_IKI:I_IlB_IONS ............. ,,, ..... , ..... , ..... _.................................... 24

II II I III III Illll IIIII I

A

PIDS DEVELOPMENT RESEARCRIWEWS 2 MAY-JUNE 1986I I I I II III II III III I IIIIIIII I I

programs covered in the 1974-]977 feasibility issues involved in pro- Development of the E$IA IndicatorPhilippine Development Plan (NEDA, meting the extensive use of project System1974). The data set included not only progress and impact measurement

goal indicators but also measures to be systems at the regional level; The formulation of a macro-level

used for evaluating the effectiveness of ESIA indicator system involves thepolicy instruments. Further, from 1974 5. RESEARCH UTILIZATION Com-te 1976, the Development Academy of ponent - to test whether the development of statistical indices tothe Philippines (DAP) undertook a methods of analysis for measuring measure social and economic processes,comprehensive effort aimed at estab- and analyzing project progress and including inputs, process flows and out-lishing national social indicators (Ma- impact formulated by the MICRO puts. In this system, inputs relate tongahas, 1976). This effort focused on Component can be used by govern- public programs and projects designednine broad categories, namely: health, ment practitioners at the national to achieve planned objectives; process

productive resources, housing, public level for ex-post evaluation of flows cover delivery of goods and set-utilities, the environment, political parti- completed projects and for ex- vices to recipients; while final outputs

cipation, peace, social mobility and social ante evaluation and prioritization refer to desired impacts on beneficiariesorder. Indicators were developed for each of proposed projects. (One and Mark, 1982).of these categories on the basis of rele- Indicators relate to some areas ofvance, comprehensiveness, and feasi- Management of the Project and the concern which may serve the purpose ofbility. However, the study was not speci- overseeing of all the components were curiosity, understanding or action. The

placed in the hands of the Philippine indicators: (a) enable us to describefically related to development goals or Institute for Development Studies (PIDS). what the position is, or what changessocial areas of concern identified or

pinpointed in any admimstratively-ap- This brief note on the Macro Corn- have taken place in it; (b) provide usproved government planning document, ponent of the ESIA/WlD Project out- with data to explain why things are

lines in detail the objectives of the as they are or why certain changes havecomponent and describes the indicators taken place; and (c) serveto show whether

ESIA/WID Project developed for purposes of measuring or not improvements are observed after

Recognizing the importance of en- and monitoring the degree of goal ac- interventions are introduced (UN, 1975).hancing the "capability of the Philippine kievement as identified in the country'sgovernment in monitoring and measuring development plans. Through this pre- The development of indicators forqeconomic progress, social change, and sentation, one could see the gains ac- progress monitoring and impact analysisthe impact of developmentprojects,"'the hieved by the ESIA/WID project in usually proceeds through a deductivePhilippine government (through NEDA) terms of establishing an indicator system process. It starts at the highest level ofand the USAID agreed to undertake and identifying statistical gaps that need abstraction and proceeds downwards inthe Economic and Social Impact Analysis/ to be covered by the present statistical the abstraction-specificity ladder to rawWomen in Development (ESIA/WID) system, data(Chart 1).Project. The objectives of the Project, In setting up the macro ESIA Indicator

which was implemented through five MACRO Component System, the first essential step carried outcomponents, were as follows: was the identification of the goal areas

The NEDA Statistical Coordination or areas of concern whose developmentsOffice was tasked to implement the one would want to keep close tab of. The

1. MACRO Component - to develop, Macro Component. Specifically, this 1978-1982 Philippine Development Planoperate, and maintain a system of component aimed to: a) formulate a served as the principal document inmacro indicators for measuring and framework which wiU serve as a medium determining the areas of concern to bemonitoring the degree of achieve- for drawing together the various quan- considered in the formulation of thement of goals identified in the titative measures of economic progress monitoring indicators. The chapters ofgovernment's development plans; and social change in a systematic fashion; the Plan provided the breakdown of the

2. WOMEN IN DEVELOPMENT b) assess the existing statistical system; macro, spatial and sectoral concerns of

(WlD) Component - to determine, and c) develop and implement a statistical development.through a series of surveys and improvement program to meet the datastudies, the nature, extent and requirements of the indicator system. In the evolution of the system ofeffect of women's participation Unlike previous works on indicators indicators, the project used the following

in development; development, the Macro component assumptions [Macro Component (2)] :effort was more policy- and action-

3. MICRO Component - to develop

methodologies and indicators for oriented. Specifically, the project was (a) The aspirations of the natior_launched to develop and institutionalize are prioritized in the develop-

measuring and analyzing project ment goals, which are articulateda statistical monitoring system which will ._progress and impact;

measure the degree of achievement of in the medium- and long-terha

4. REGLON VI Component - to the targets set in the country's medium- development plans;

identify administrative and other term development plan. (b) The attainment of these goals

I II I

......: l:ogeth.e.r with the c'.hapt:ers on %_gri-

.... : culture. Agra.r:ia::ll.'Re"o'-'_ a']d .hldust:ry''_'..... : .... .... : aad the T>_.nsport and Co_<.u_t_icatioD

:._;_.L_;;_ i : : SubSecto o £(_e '_'htfrastrucLure'" e.hapte:r,[ .... .... : _oP-O[t\,..;--._.: _i _NTEGRATO_ were deemed part of this deveDpment.... : MOOEL cot]cern_ _Va.teF t"esoll:t'oe o:11¢ o:[ [;1]._

....... : : Goal[Areas [: :: ..... two remaini.ng subsectors .[nc].uded in: the ].a.l:terchaFte,:r, was considered uIXbr

:: i ........ R,

. :.: ..... Infl:a.st:mcture sector: was s]:n'ead among[: :::....: CCN{.ERNS Lhe °'.l':lealto,,' Ed.u.cadcm.and __ocml;:""'

.... Wel:l%s.reand

.... : ...... .... was subsumed umJ.er "<[qnance'" wEtb: : : Subc0ncerns Tra de_l:ogethe:rwith Ma:rlpowe"aEd Labor°

.......... was given equat ef_rphas:is,In reco_ titio_.... ...... ,of the rkm s JtmL_,ts('or a.'moro ec_i1_1_e.... : f..[stributtcn of the fi:uil:sof deveJ.op.me_T_,cb

d-re ESL:%Irtdicato:r System consideredhoti.seho/d i:aco:rne exoendJl-ures and

: : : :oe..elom -,i r.:wealtha.sa.:....... :: :: : : : : : the ESIA Ind:ica._orsfra:mework as just.

: .... : a:{'easof co'l_cern(De Gu,zman, I985).: :: .... STATISTICS:: : : ..... ..... These eco:no:m:icand soc:ia.],areas of

[_;aWa_to: : ..... .............. .... ...... concerns are ].:hiked ['oge-l::het"in[o a*_; _ : _t_,_i_ _ .... ................... -: :: :: pupils : : _r.h_o_{]g_. : :.....: : : ....... m'ff{l,'ir]g: socio-econcm:i.c {,:once:ptu,_.l

: : : : : fra.mework (Charl 2, po 4), For i,nsta:f_ce:,a primary target of t'he ,De]_'diot)v_e_tt

: .[f;:_'_is to eradici:rte .poverty by r:dsin_...... .... ..... "1 -_..... CHA_{r_.. L.AOOS_ .L_.o,,,..-..m_>.,<-.,._sot-..'_I.>bo_r_o-r-_:I_e

population; rnar_fes<_tions of w'hic]:_

could be the at_a:i'nme:wl:o.["bettet"hea]th,.... educad(m, ']_o]tsillg a]:ac[ env:[ronment.

: (xm [be monitored on a 11.la:cro:, ............... p .................. d_o devdoi> oublic order ss welt as 1::heprov:[sion ofs_.l._t_.,::,to special disadv:arl.tagedlevel ...... : in the social ""'/- ....

ro,. ps.T.h.s..,>iorso(,:: al--., :,,,,. ,, _ ' -)78) the the develomn mI " ..... ...... goa].s are prernJsed'o.ot ort.D on expanding

: : :_ibcegsary tlie ::14,chatsH:ersof ........prod.ucl:ior_ 'activit:ies_ emplo'vmem op,:............ .... : the 6_'_ent Goals por_unities: and income ger'_eratiorzbu[: : s' [,tsl.[gt.,,_.,o,:::: : : : f: • .......... ,:* , ., .,....... '

, _ a/( St ategtes Regional Oe_e opmc;lt:a-. ' "'; _, . , _..,. :.: .: : also reducing income inequalities,.... ..... . ........ arid Ht :11ali SettenaeD.[s gra'ne_xork: ....... In ef![\'<:L, this ne:cessitai:es a h:[gh bu.[:

consll,lll IQ CL:ISCQsS1OJQS; WJ],ICij re,, ..... " ...... ..... ' • • '

sU:i:ie,:d ;o{fi!e:v{si0:nsolf't:he s _' _ Agdcultt re m:id:Ag aria:.nReform Natural ba a_ seal econornic growth whic:h i:ntct I_ a : •

,,'_ _ .. :: and Manage- 1:urn:mustbe suppo.i:fledby proper [,ea_>,the Macro Lomt,_on<,nrs ......... .... .,.... ..... _ ....... ......, _ = me :t ]_dus '3, I[ade a_d ]C]_iIlSl]] _ " ....finally adopted :': ::" :" :' ': ',": " T, ', :' eial aad im,'estmem: _:_olb.iesand efficJeni:

" areas off : E*iergv: Infrastructure: Science and Techo trti]h:al:ion o.f lirnited, natu.t"al aad ener>y...... ' :...... '-0 ....... _ ..... resources .... xMI diese factors interact

Fi.r,_,r,ce; Foretg'_ nology;_Jea,ltha,'_d.Nutrition;m_u.c_,tio_, ....::Trade .<i:al::Resom.,ces:E:nei:gv: Era.- Man]?ower and Labor; Housing; Popm : togel:her: direct and inclirect ways

:'q{_i [_;ome -Fxt_ea afion at( Social Servicegl DeVelopme at \v:{tl'_inim intevrated socio-eco:no:mic

.... Finar_cirn_; and .... d.evek)pm_irrtp_),. ocess tMa<r....... Con'po')e_a.....(<.],.-a.n_[:: and Environ>, .... tra don. : ...... .....

}neai{::::....... ::::Socia.] weir'are and ........., • ........... ..... ........ - .......... hoduct.to:rt :m the, ES.L,Xh'zdzcato:iment: and Pub'H.c System refers 1:oa].l a.ci:ivities re].ated to ]A;scribingDevel0prr_e'_'tt(:;,o_'ds

Order;::::: [Mac_"0 Com._ t:he generation and: disposit:io:l?,of goods The goal and (:le've'lopmenl:ot>je<:ives..... a _(1 serv ces in the economy, As such, of each devetopmenl: d:trus are ar icub:ed

Ve]"v dose parallelism coukl be 0b........ the Chaptet: on in t:he .Pta,a document, The goals areserved bel:weer_ the l':,SI.,k ;fndicato:c "Deve:.opment Goals: and S.......... _."....... ,_t_ateg.t_.s stateme:nts wh.ich describe the nature

: : PIDSDEVELOPMEN] RESEAR£, _,,:WS..... _. .............. : : MAY-JUNE 1986:i:::

1.2,-- Stimutatio'n o:f _:le- P/'apoiz:ting key ¢]:amcteristies, variables

i ventio:iis o:n concern.: These ........ : mand and e:fi%ctin_ of or d.eter_Nmmts

sgateme.n.ts structu:ra[ cha.l_ges or'm]]:.... ha ttle deve opraenl pkn'_ing:processes.i : gi'ow:tit{.:; develop., sectot'al c0:mposiC_on£_l'la }," al?v o11e o:- a.

..... imen(: :of De_pel_idil_i!i:0:_: the: :: i :: :: : de_aad .... .....

co:mbinati6_ ot" ttie di:fl_ere_t strategies,...... of Sub-sub,._oaI-1,2,1. lm.lreased per- po].ic:ies_:pr6grams or proiec:s ahned atdew-].6p:ltieiit:: dlmllefiges: in tlie sO_ai :d6'nst._q?l on ex- of i:]le socio_

....could :be::: [fie,rarctxieally: :dat.egorized: as ..... penditta'es a,qd i_T,est- ..... ecol"to:mic "/'s3st(,m; t;0 actJeve ttne desired: gotls::s*lb_oa s or s={ib:subg:oa[sSpecie ....._ients _ "'_ • a_,<.... '_:i > .... " ...........ou:c*..llle _.t-l.oi'r]iL_..32..),i'_ornlaHv t.l'lese

•fie :a_Feiienls::o":qoas s[ _go ls m:d .......... ? _ Greater suu-( i_it< v_ltio:_ wou [ ozttain ke/cha_ac,. ,- ....... _ , ....... r ...... . " .... a_ _',}....... • i ,22 2 " " } ,, ,:" . -

sub4_tbgbas we'e (educe¢ l:om he :::: : ): inVeslme_Tts10 =G_,,:/P s -'. . ..... _. , _",,,_ .a.... " "-" .... : " ............. Y_:,Hbl; es u£ vaz-laDses wu_cJ2 wcl_ltc± mu.l-

.... sct},r,t_ s(ttlo_s cn strate.ges, Iv (,t{s. ........ ...... ¢ - Lxp, t,,_to: o{ . .,, . ...... , _ _, 1.: ..... " "" ....... (2_lce tile ,#llreclilo!l {5t' Q:(,, l'latklre o212 l'l:c, ctl _

.... : ...... , : : : I1C_:Ft;IO]2 CSLSITeQ.,, i 12).ese l-rUv_uc;G t:£,u v,i;a._

..... Usirg the Production _eelo_ ot t_e ...... _., . - - ,.... ..... .......... " .... [he a ant, su> link in t.he tol:mu.[atmn oI: the. a.pproprzate: ES/A:l'.n:diea_:o]as il'[ustra_ion: ..... : :groWth: C0uld l_o :nea.- goal :nonitoring in.dicakors_

:G0al: ::i:].i;] Al£tak.L17i<:::i:tt:0f: a i?igh sured t'relU ci::_ : the suppl.y c0:rc?emmad IL shouM be emptaasized, however,: : :a:_d: ecoii0_,_ic side of process, thf..,.s.,the: :: thst wh.ile a aivei_ inte,_:ve_atior_m%_have

: : gr0ivth_ : two increased pro- bee_ :[d.e_tified to address to a. specific-du0.tion stru:tural cha_enge., the said ir_t:ervention would.......: : :cha:nges i1'_ tlt_.SecI:oral; composition o:f also :result in eflfer{s tha_ are: (a} direct

:: Rm:.dchanges h_Sec_0ral do:rnestic Supply Could be more speci., and :i_d.ireCt (b) il.}l:e_d.eda_dunintended,: comp0sition of do.me> i :{iC_tHvmeasured BY determ:h:i_:_gcha,_,,ees m_d (c) short..term and lo:_g-term, aot

tic SUl?pl>' :1i:a both labo:r and capital produci:i'vity only' in thai: __a.r:ic_lar concern but in.... ......Sub SubgoaT 1 _ h_e"e{ae:d 5'1"o- as well as ia the s:hiTfi:s the cc,mpositio_:_ other areas aSwell

ii : of the available supply' o17consu:mer and An i]lus!:ratio,n o£h0w tl_e Ho.'_.ad0c>: i .I.t2;-_,. t,,reatur sell irrte:rmed:iate goods, Change.s o._:._the ment is dissected to iden.ti:{y the goal,

the sUii)Iv of demand side; on i:he oth{,,.t'hazid., could subg0al and. the :phu'med inte.]zrentions_:: :: :raw be: assessed by analvzin:a the beha_4.or to effect the desired change is show_

.... maierial requireme!ats 0£ c.oi'_sumption, investment and exl?or:ts., t.i:e matrix ,onpage 5. Thereafte:r_ these

..... ...... i

: i:::ii : i ..........:

............ ............. :: :: : ....

::iI :...... :

r

PIDS DEVELOPMENT RESEAR(J.,-vp-,,,EWS 5 - MAY-JUNE 1.986Illl II ill .........

Lnterventions are analyzed to determine .......

e direct, indirect, intended or unintend- Intervention Key Other s"ocio-'Ul_rdand where possible, the short-term and Goal Subgoal (Strategy, PercyProgram) Determinant economicdeterminants.ong-term effects of the interventions. - ..........The effects are classified into key and Sustained 1. Balanced Programs inAgro- Reducedgap Increased

Economic Growth BasedIndustries; in regional regionalother socio-economic determinants. Key Growth Strategy Agricultural development; employmentdeterminants refer to the direct acid Among development Increased opportunities;

intended (both short- and long-term) Sectors& that exploits regionalpro- Increasedeffects of the intervention on the area Regions potential and • ductivity; demandforof concern. Possible effects of the in- comparative Changesin soci',dinfra-

regional sectoralpro- structure;tervention on other concerns ace lumped advantages; duction Improvedunder the column "Other socio-economic Improvedefficiency structure, incomedeterminants", andcompetitiveness distribution.

of servicesector_

Criteria for Selecting Indicators 2. Self-sufficiency Import substitution; Changesin ImprovedandProductivity Export development; production healthand

Relevance, comprehensiveness and fea- in Agricultural Pricingand technology; socialstatus;production distribution Increased Increased

sibility were the guideposts used by the systems;Credit productivity; nationalism;

DAP Social Indicators Project in selecting schemes,Off-farm Improved Improved

their own sets of indicators. They added employment, prices, incomethat "since indicators must be useful improved distribution;

marketing; Increasednot only to technicians but also to the Exploitation demandforgreater pubhc, they should be simple of resources, socialinfra-to interpret" (Mangahas, 1976). Other structure;disciples of the social indicators move- Changes in

environmentment, however, question the inclusion andhumanof feasibility as a criterion in the selection settlements.of indicators. The Organization for

Economic Cooperation and Develop- 5. The indicator should reflect actual Moreover, while output-target re-ment (OECD), for one, argued that changes in absolute levels or trends lationship measures effectiveness whichcurrent data availability should not be related to the conditions implicit is of central interest to government, wethe deciding factor in choosing social in the goals or areas of concern are nevertheless also interested in ef-indicators because it was precisely the [sensitivity] ; and ficiency (or productivity), which is the

deficiency in information which inspired 6. The indicator should measure Fmal input-output relationship. Finally, it

a broader approach via social indicators, impact of outcomes rather than is not always practicable to come out

The Macro Component of the ESIA/ inputs [impact-orientation]. with good output measures, hence,input proxies become unavoidable.WlD Project, meanwhile, adopted thefollowing criteria for selecting the ESIA While there should be no arguments on It should also be emphasized thatIndicators [Macro Component (2)] : the adoption in full of the criteria 1 to while all quantitative indicators could

5, some points could be raised against be correctly classified as statistics, the1. The indicator can be expressed in the view on impact orientation of the reCerse is not always true. Population

terms of quantitative measures indicator, per se, or land area of a municipality[measurability]; ace not considered as valid indicators.

It is recognized that effects of the Population density expressed as the2. The indicator can definitely mea- interventions do not occur all at the same nmnber of persons per square kilometer,

sure a specific attribute or charac- time. There is a hierarchy of outputs however, is an accepted indicator for

teristic for the purpose of deter- which could be considered as inter- congestion(De Guzman, 1985).mining the extent to which an ob- mediate outputs at different levels.jective has been attained [appro_ For example, increasing the number In general, indicators are highlypriateness]; of graduating teachers is the explicit aggregative statistics which provide con-

3. The indicator should incorporate output of the higher education pro- cise, comprehensive and balanced judge-as much information of a given gram; at the same time, this is an input ments about the conditions of the majorarea of concern as possible [corn- to the goal of increasing the literacy aspects of society, and provide directprehensiveness] ; levels of Filipinos. To conffme the in- measures of welfare and outputs.

dicators, to the higher-order outputs4. The indicator should be responsive would deprive the indicators of the Typology and Formulation of Indicators

and relevant in its attempt to role of monitoring and evaluation of The type of statistical indicator which

monitor existing pohcy objectives public programs and may render them will suit the requirements of the user will[relevance] ; of limited use to project managers, vary depending on how, where, or why he

|111111 III I II II I I I I

EsEXRctPIDS DEVELOPMENT R ,.............EWS ......... :MAY-JUNE 1986

values; ou*put, in- tiStical construct requiring a :more corn-

: ly claSsifi6d::as:....(a) descriptive (b)like productivity, income, em- plicated p:rocessh'_g of a eombina.tio IPl0yment; side,effect indicators like popu- of data series. :

igramJeVaiuation indicators. These dassb : lation size, spatial distribut.iom health Synthetic indicators or collstriicts :mayfications; ihoweve_; are mutually condition, etc:: and secon&orderimpact be :Formulated using any one or a coma

...... exclusive in:the sense that adescriptiVei::indicators such as standard of living, bination of the lbllowh_g methods:: typell h{die:at0r such aS:_m index of farm:: (a) proportions percentages ratios, rates;

produCtivitymay be:Used as a basis Depending on how they are construc- (b) mea:lls and medians; (c) measures of

preciictingi: level 0t7 production indicators may also be classified as dispersim_, including range, fractilesevaluating:the impact of the agri_ eitlier simple indicators Or synthetic meal an.d Standard deviations, skewness,

cultural credit program.: indicators, Siiriple indica{ors are of the kurtosis and the Gini coefficient; _md

Another way of clustering the traditional data series type Such as fire (d) index numbers.h'tdicators iS illus:ira.ted in a higt__ly:sire- : number of entering elementary sch.ool

plified:sdrenmti:c, presentation oftheJa_tera pupfls in successive school years, Synthe, ESIA Indicator S_st".'em Classffieatmn'"rela'ti0.nship : 0{" an: interactive: social :-tic: indicators; on the Other band, are Scheme .....system:m0del (Chart3 below) c0rtstruc.ts from :data series involving

ttmt Chart 3:is used t0 i a:greater 0:i:iesser amount of processing. After f0rmulatiug tlne: fi'amework fordescribe : iiii_processes in:.the tndus:ry : An example oC a synthetic indicator the re,sir Indicator System, the last

..... Sec':or ::One: c0nld th.erlspecify:polic3>:: :::whirl1 is derived through an elementary step is to demonstrate that such a systemins'mm, entindicators as relating to: i proee:ssing (e,g., division) of two data. is in fact feasible, This requires an assess-monetary:, i:physical and i{:anpower re_ series is the elementary school enrof 'meier of the capability of tire statistical.

.... sources, stictI as capital, labo r force, Circ.; i meier: rate; the consumer price index system to sustain the data. requiremm_tsnon-manipulable indicators such as work would f_fll 'under the category of a sta- of the Indicator System.

............ : Ttle successikfl maintenance of the

.... i: : : : : : ESIA l:ndicator System requires sustained:EXOGENOUS : INDUSTRY INTEGRATION ENDOGENOUS data support. Reliance should be given

INTERAC'TWE MODEL VARIABLES to ongoing and continuing data systems[ VARIABLES i :

I: ::::7 7 ...... ..... rather than to the a&h0c one-shot type{"....... ......... data C011ectionactivities.

As part of the ES/A 1.'ndieat0r System

housekeeping procedures the Macro...... : ...... ...... output Component developed a classificatio_:

Descrip*ive scheme for the indicators and the re-

Degcriptive: , ii .... quisite data iilputs to the IndicatorW.fi,bi,, : ii System. The ESIA Indicator Data Clas°

: .....::: .... sification Scl:ferne is give:u below [Macro:: : .... :: i Component (2)] :

referS: to indiCatOrs WhOseVal:iables ;ire still to be identified or

.........: _vhere the appropriate fornaula is Still

Sideeffect tO be devel0ped ....Descriptive Type I - refei:'s*0 i.ndicatorS whereinVoriclble_

....... ..... 'it:e requisite data are available in theX

...: desired 17requencya'nd disa.ggregation...... , .... Type '_:--- tlne data required are avail-.... ..... \

: : .... able in tlae desired frequency mad dis-

.... __ : aggregation but arc' beset with some.... i : : linaitat_ons such a.s unreliability Of dat.'.t"', due to undercoverage or data are .'-waft-

......... able as part of a broader classification:: : Order

.... : Impact : : but no breakdown is available.

::: Analytki : : TYpe 3 -Da:ta are: not avai]able :it:.......... indicaters .........::i:: ..... : ihe desh'ed:tkcquency ............ Type 4 - Data are:::or available irl

the desired disaD;regati0n,i ....

Type 5 -Other problemsin data: :::ANALYTIC: ava.i:labiiity_

: iNTEGRATiON MODEL ..... ....... Type 6 _ Dr:tar:are not available inany form. ...... :

PIDS DEVELOPMENT RESEAR[.-_-. _NEWS 7 MAY-JUNE 1986

This classification scheme is very TABLE l : ESIA MACRO INDICATORS BY GOAL AREA.aseful in determining and identifying Key Supportivedata gaps and problems affecting the Goal Area Total Indicators Indicatorsdevelopment of the indicators. More-)ver, with the help of the classification 1. Production 18 13 5;eheme, appropriate statistical develop- 2. Finance 26 6 20

3. Foreign Trade 11 2 9nent programs could be prepared to sup-Jort the data needs and further enrich 4. Energy Resources 17 6 11

_.heESIA hldicators System. 5. Natural Resources 29 5 246. Household Income, Expenditure

Chart 4 presents examples of the and Wealth 25 3 22

ndicator framework for Agriculture, 7. Employment 22 11 11industry, Natural Resources and Environ- 8. Population 12 8 4nent, and Social Services. 9. Health 22 12 10

In its present form, the ESIA In- 10. Education 29 8 21

Jicator System contains a total of 297 11. Housing and Environment 35 16 19ndicators - 100 key and 197 supportive. 12. SocialWelfare and

breakdown of these indicators by Community Development 35 6 29_,oal area is shown in Table 1. [Macro 13. Public Order, Safety and Justice 16 4 12

3omponent (2)] : ALL SECTORS 297 100 197

_'A;='ES SoURCESof ] DISAGGRE- FREQUENCY,',_'_',_ :_._: DATA ]_ GATIONImprove pcoduc- Agrl¢ultural Produc-flvlty in agrlcul- tivlty Index

AGRI- ture

CULTUR _' a)Labor Productivity I GVA in Agriculture, NAS,NEDA Region, Type of Semestrcll_Index Labor Force inagri- NCSO, BAECON Crops Annual

cuJtureb) Farm Productivity I GVA in Agriculture, NAS, NE DA Region, Type of Semestral,

Index Area BAECON CrOps Annual

Promote Rational Agricultural Termso) ......... 2 Prices paid Ek re_ " BAECON Region, Type of QuarterlyPrice System Trade Index ceived by farmers Crops

IntenslfYBxport '" ExpOrt Quantum 8tValue '_ 5 ValueandQuantlty _NCSO Commodity,Country MonthlyINDUSTRY promotion Program Indices of Exports

promote Industry Production Index

Dispersal Program a)Volue of production 2 Value _ Quantity of NCSO, NEDA Region, Industry MonthlyIndex Production,Employed Quarterly

b)Volume of oroduction Labor Forcec) Output per worker

Index.. . . . ..........

"I_IATURAL promote Efficient Land Use Index Total Land Area

RESOURCES anddudicloususe of Natural

AND ENVI- Resources 4 Total Area of Clas- BFD, BL Region, Land Use AnnualRONMENT sifted Land-Use Classification

Total Area of ActualLand _Use

Increase Access Medical - Health 5 Population NCSO, MOH Region, Urban / AnnualSOCIAL to Health it Nutrl- Worker Ratio to No. of Health Workers Rural, Type of

SERVICES tlon Services Population Health Worker

Percentage of Under- Population, NCSO, FNRI Region,Urban/ Annualnourished population Undernourished MOH Rural, Sex, Age

population

Provide &Improve Literacy Rate 5 Populatlon_ NCSO, MECS Region, Urban/ Annual

broad General Literate Population Rural, Age Group,Education Sex

........ ,.... i

CHART 4. ESIA INDICATORSFOR AGRICULTURE,INDUSTRY,NATURAL RESOURCESENVIRONMENT AND SOCIAL SERVICES

m.

JR I Bill IIII illll III III i

I

PIDS DEVELOPMENT RESEARCHI_._WS 8 MAY-JUNE 1986................. |, ,ram

Problems andIssnes areas like nutrition and environment , 1983. 1983-1987 Philippinewould be very useful (Koppel, et al., Development Plan.

While the present ESIA Indicator 1982)., 1984. 1984-1987 Updated

System has succeeded in covering the Finally, the pace of development ofPhilippine Development Plan.

broad spectrum of economic and social tile economic and social monitoring and

development concerns, it does not impact indicators depend to a great , 1982. Social Developmenthowever, claim to have succeeded in extent on the ability of the Philippine in the Philippines, 1970-1980.making an exhaustive presentation of Statistical System to react quickly to theall the concerns of development. For fast tempo of developmentprocesses. Ono, Mitsuo and Shelly Mark, 1982.one, the ESIA Indicators did not pro- Final Report of Foreign Consultantsvide specific indicators on poverty Assisting the Macro Component in theincidence. Development on the staffs- REFERENCES Development of the ESIA Indicator

tics about poverty has not been tho- Bureau of Census and Statistics (BCS), System, Economic and Social Impactrough and, at best, only rough indi- 1973_Social Indicators. Analysis/Women in Developmentcations can be drawn up to show the (ESIA/WIDJPro]ect.incidence of poverty in the country De Guzman, Generoso G., ]985. Pop-(MACRO Component, 1982). As a sur- dev Integration in Monitoring and Philippine Institute for Developmentrogate, the ESIA Indicator System Evaluation (unpubfished). Studies, ]982. Implementation Plan:simply presented indicators on the bot- Economic and Social ImpactAnalysis/tom 30 percent of the population. It ___ , 1982. "The Develop- Women in Development {ESIA/WID)seems, however, that this is not really ment of an Indicator System for Project.a very satisfactory compromise as eco- Planning of an Indicator System for

nomists, planners, policymakers, and Planning - The ESIA/WlD Expe- United Nations, 1975. Towards aSystemother social scientists have been conti- rience." Paper delivered at the Work- of Social and Economic Statistics.

nuously asking for a more exacting shop on the Social Science and Devel- New York.

measure of the extent of poverty in opment Planning, Cebu City. I10

the country. Under the present govern- Herrin, A.N., 1985: "Regional Challenges UlF

ment, the eradication of poverty has and Strategies: Sectoral Analysis"been placed on top of the agenda for POPDEV Reports Paper No. 2.reforms. Thus, it has now become im-

perative that a definite poverty line be Koppel, Bruce, et al., 1982. Specialestablished for the country in order Evaluation Report on the Economic

that a more objective measure of as- and Social ImpactAnalysis/Women insessing the incidence of poverty could Development Project (ESIA/WID).be made.

Another gap in the ESIA Indicator Macro Component (l). Working Papers PUBLICATIONSSystem is the absence of perception- Nos. l, 2, 3, 4, and 5. NEW

type indicators in the framework. The (2). ESIA Indicator Trade Liberalization Experience in thesubjectivity of these indicators was the System: Concepts, Framework and Philippines: 1960-1984.

major argument against their inclusion. Data Sources. by: Florian Alburo andHowever, it is for this same reason that

many people consider these types of (3). ESIA Indicators Geoffrey Shepherdindicators important in gauging the Revised Data Sheets. Deputy Director-General, NEDA

and Senior Fellow, Science Policyeffectiveness of government programsand projects in improving the economic , 1981, 1982, 1983, Research Unit, University of Sussex,and social conditions of the population 1984. Economic and Social Indicators. respectively.

Working Paper Series No. 86-01(Macro Component, 1982). , 1982. Final Report The study traces the evolution of

The strides attained by the Macro ESIA/WID Project-Macro Component. policies and/or factors which influencedComponent in the development of an the process of implementing a tradeindicator system would have more im- Mangahas, Mahar K. (ed.) 1976. Measur- liberalization policy in the Philippines for

pact if an integrating framework, which ing Philippine Development. Manila: the period of 1960-1984. Starting with a

would objectively measure or show the Development Academy of the Philip- description of the Philippine economy's dlinkages among the indicators, within pines, attributes, in terms of population and_

and across the areas of concern could be NEDA, 1974. .1974-1977 Philippine labor force, investment, capital and in-developed. For the agencies monitoring Development Plan. dustry characteristics, the study goes onagricultural production, for example, to describe observable long.term policy

some notion of how increased agricul- , 1978. 1978-1982 patterns, using several commercial andtural output impinges on other goal PhilippineDevelopment Plan. financial indicators to discern the degree

........... I III

il I ll!l IHH

PIDS DEVELOPMENT RESEAR_wl NEWS 9 MAY-JUNE 1986II I I! IL I II11 I I I

of restriction or liberalization pursued by time series analysis. Other methodsthe country. Succeeding chapters lengthily used included regression analysis, statis-discuss the episodes of foreign exchange tical tests of hypothesis and multivariatede-control, devaluation and the growth analysis.of non-traditional exports, and the ON"GOINGinitial stages of the implementation of PROJECTSthe Tariff Reform Program. The Sociocultural Bases of Decision-

Making at the Local Levd: The Caseof the Bieol River Basin Development

Economic Recovery And Long-Run Program

Growth: Agenda for Reforms, Volume I by: Cesarina Re]ante(Main Report) Visiting Research Associate

BMS Data Improvement Activity Philippine Institute forby: 1.7orianA. Alburo, et al. (BMSDIA) First Phase Development Studies

The volume is the first of a two- by." Sonia Imperial The study attempts to identify thevolume report which presents a package structure and function of social goals,

of proposed structural reforms for The Bicol Multi-purpose Survey Data roles and rules in determining planningconsideration of the new government Improvement Activity (BMSDIA), as decisions made at the local/municipalas it draws a new development plan initiated by tile U.S. Agency for Inter- level. The prhnary objective is to generateaiming to achieve economic recovery national Development (U.S.A.I.D.)was new hypotheses and concepts aboutin the short-term and sustainable growth in response to the urgent need to ira- decision-making behavior and processes,in the long-term. The guiding principles prove the data reliability and t, sefuiness either on the basis of-direct observationbehind the proposals are respect for of the Bicol Multi-purpose Survey of or interviews with local officials at the

human rights, social justice and poverty 1978 and 1983 for the Bicol River project site. The study identifies signi-alleviation, growth and greater efficiency, Basin Development Project. The re- ficant social sub-groupings of localand a minimum of government inter- search and evaluation potentials ofvention. The strategy proposedis employ- the BMSDIA are seen as necessa.ry to officials and implementing agency re-ment-oriented and adopts a rural-based improve and ensure the consistency and presentatives who serve as referencetype of development. The success of the completeness of raw data and data files groups for analyzing patterns of locallevel decision-making behavior.proposed economic program contained for each component survey of the BMSin this report is hinged on the successful 1978 and 1983, and at the same time,

adoption and implementation of reforms to create BMS sub-files which researchers Financial Liberalization and Interestin certain areas of concern, (i.e., external will fred easier to understand and utilize. Rate Determination: The Case of the

debt, monetaiy policy, fiscal policy, Philippines, 1981-1986structure of government, distributivejustice, population and basic services, A Study of the Consumer Price Index, by: Ma. Socorro H. Gochocoand labor and employment) which will Retail Price Index, General Wholesale Visiting Research Fellowset the stage for agricultural and indus- Price Index, and Producer Price Index Philippinelnstitute/brtrial development. Once the policy regime for Manufaetttring Development Studiesis neutralized, the country will then

enjoy a comparative advantage in agri- by: VirginiaN. Gafiac The study examines how interestculture to be further supported by Visiting Research Associate rates are determined in the case of atrade and industry. Philippine Institute for small open economy like the Philip-

Development Studies pines once the financial market hasHeaded by Dr. Florian Alburo (Task been liberalized. Using monthly data

Force Report Chairman), the authors The project aims to describe and for the period 1981-1986, the studywere able to infuse into the report examine the development of the con- focuses on the influences of both do-

the views and opinions of individuals sumer price index, retail price index, mestic monetary policy and open eco-from the academe, government and general wholesale price index and the nomy factors (e.g. foreign interest ratesthe private sector. Several institutions producer price index for manufacturing, and the expected rate of change ofalso supported or lent assistance to the It provides an in-depth study on the the exchange rate) on domestic inte-report. Other than the PIDS and the various changes in the concepts and rest rates. From a policy perspective,

,NEDA, the institutions involved were methodologies employed in the com- understanding the manner in whichthe U.P. School of Economics, the putation of the indices. These sets of these influences affect local interest

International Food Policy Research insti- consistent data series are useful for rates contributes to current knowledgetute, the Institute for Developing Eco- undertaking analytical studies on price on how interest rate changes affect, innomies, and the hrternational Labour trends. In the analysis of the data series, turn, savings and investment, the balance-Organization. the types of statistical tests used were of-payments and economic growth.

I II IIIII IIIIIlllll

4

PI DS DEVE LOPMENT R ESEARC_ ,,,.:WS 10 MAY-JUN E 1986IIIIIIIII III IIIII

May 2%30, 1986. Touching on 'various porations"; and lastly, Carol Guina on

SEMINARS sensitive issues affecting government "A Framework for Evaluating Public,corporations, the forum brought together Enterprise Performance".the highlights of the individual papers The second day of the seminar was

i_ of Rosario Manasan on "A Macroeco- devoted to the discussion of a possible

nomic Overview of Public Enterprises agenda for future research and recom.

in the Philippines, 1975-1984; Gabriel mendations for action regarding theIglesias on "Policy Issues in the Co- various aspects of pubhc enterprises.ordination and Control of Public En-

terprises in the Philippines, Focus onthe NPC, MWSS, PNOC and SPDA"; Fortheoming seminars:Juanita Amatong on "Explicit Bud- July - "Factors Affecting the Choice ofgetary Contributions of the National 24 Location: A Survey of Foreign

Seminar-WorkshoponEeonomieReeovery Government to Government Corpora- and Local Firms in the Philip-and Long-Run Growth: Agenda for tions"; Amelia Ancog on "A Survey of pines." by Ernesto Pernia andReforms the Coordination and Control Systems Alejandro Herrin

of Selected Public Enterprises: FSDC, 30 -"Expenditures for InfrastructureA seminar-workshop on "Economic LWUA, HFC and PVTA"; Leonor Bfiones and Social Services in Two

Recovery and Long-Run GrOwth: An on "Financial Management in Five Regions of the Philippines." byAgenda for Reforms" was organized Selected Public Utility/Infrastructure Cor- Ledivina V. Carifioand sponsored by the Philippine Ins-titute for Development Studies (PIDS) Ministry ,_ _._p,.,_-t;o_.... d _........_o_.J....on May 24, 1986 at the PSSC Audi- _-__ °_ _:.._-...L.st]at2onal capital Region

torium in Diliman, Quezon City. The ,_i___ 2aozforum brought into public focus and

SWOR_] '_'P?',_'PHENT

scrutiny the results of a major studyundertaken by a group of scholars from vh.... do_-_,_._.. Jmnna r,r. n_u_o_m_a_gA..cmm_•

w_ _1---. _- _ ,; t)" Of _..d2!-.catior,_)the Philippine Institute for Development _.... _rr .......... .'.;= 7,_-:_.i...._.-..:..-_:_:........_..Studies (PIDS), the University of the _ -.--_,._a_.- ............... .!'_-,,:'.:._.:._,-........._:'._/

_t _ /0£'{r.£c6 _:! _.', :!J c_:.on) . • _fterPhilippines School of Economics and _...._......_,?,_--_ ........... _......... '_ :_,..'.._.......w _b_i_

the followinQ _tc_u_.._,,,c .,[._,,;ner_,_.'_z.' .,.n: - 7--c_t.. ci_-c,i!_ttion$

the National Economic and Development o_o. _,_c_.,±_ _..a,_:_ ,:.:_-_,._ ._"<. -_ .:,..-.:.-_:,__-,_-co,_o_._,_,,_Act _o. 201.

Authority_NEDA). The seminarstartedwith a plenary session, after which the _.-._ _=_sss

Editor

group broke into four working groups. _, "_'%'_-.-..---'-'=r=_. :_-.,_,,_...Du_ine55 M_snogerGroup i covered the area of external 0.... ,,,publish_"

debt, monetary policy and the financial _.±=_r r:::'-c--_--::_-_::-:--'= -'---:-_ :_-::-- ,'--==_Office o_u'Sq_-d" _° _-L-._, y_. ._,_,..system; fiscal policy and the structure

I_ pub,_c_tion is owni_d by _ corpor_tlon _tockholder_

of government. Group II concentrated owning one po_-m,_nt; oi.-more of the total amoun6 Gf stocks:

on distributive justice, population andbasic services, and labor and employ-

_o_dholders, mortg,sgc:_., or other security hold:=-r_ own,lng ,mont. Group IIl, on the other hand, dis.... ; ..... -,t o....... c _,_. _,t.__...._ o_ ........_t;_:

cussed agriculture and rural develop-ment, while Group IV handled industry _..... _ _ _,l_y ,_,_z_o< ...... _,o-_rr_,e-'_

'pr&nted and ci_-oulata,d of °_ci_ isr_uc du_ing tho p_ecedingand trade development .... t],o5 , r,,_

Mrs.. Solita Coll_s-Monsod, Director- _. s_t _o_,_.... _,o_ _.a _:_....._bo_"---_-General of the NEDA and Minister of _°_ ='_" "..........

In case of publication Oth_r th_n d_J,12- toc_l riumbe_ _fEconomic Planning, opened the dis- _op_c,__-,rintedandcirculetoO,sfthelast; 3.._zued_tedcussion while Dr. Florian Alburo, Chair- '" _: z._v__ ....... _:_

2. $_'t tC_!'S t_n :_ic] ,sl.lbsc±'ibcrsman of the Task Force and Associate ,u_,,,_ "tot;_z

,t,. IProfessor of the UP School of Econo- .t,.;C._ly_O," .mics, presented the highlights of the lk;"_:_- _7_x..._d_mm_

proposed economic program contained _"_' -,__.f4 ___':') -

ZLI2$CRZ2U,D--A_D r_,rOr2 tO b,_fore m,_ %hi@ Z (lqu<,of_

Seminar-Workshopon Philippine Public _,_.__t;l_:,.,to"_ ,__¢-_,_-'_'_ ..... __ (')_o_L..')<'_---±.....a _ ,/ /_/o_ "/ _-c_._¢-_7 --,

/c_T_' c,_c_ ---g4 .... -7-- ........Enterprises _""_"'__ ,_ ...._....2AJJ.ZL'_...........

Most timely in the calendar of semi- _ I_"_oi_ '-. -_-,_o,,:,._:_!,r_c_:/_,_,_nars of the Institute is a seminar on .Ise_t_s0_-_s___r,_.c._z-_:'_::}:x:M;_g"_,!'_vtJ"Philippine Public Enterprises" held on

PIOSOEVE,OPMENTRESEAR.EWS 11 t JUNE1986I II III IJll III II I I IIII

PIDSPUBLICATIONSAVAILABLEPIDS WORKING PAPERS 4. S,P_:/_t8204 Shadow Prices of Goods and Resources in the

Philippines An Assessment,Erlinda M. Medalla.5. S,P_#8205 An Analysis of the Behavior of the Commercial

1, W.P._8301 Studies on the Wood-Based Furniture, Leather Banks_Mario B, Lamberte,ProductS Jnd Footwear Manufacturing Industries 6. S.P._8301 Exchange Rate Flexibility and Interventionin the Philippine_ Niceto Poblador, Adriano Policy in the Philippines, 1973-1981. FilologoSoils, RoyYbaSez, and Bien_enidoAragon, Pante, Jr_

2. W.P._8302 Economic Policies and Philippine Agriculture, 7, S.P.#_8302 On the Use of the DRC Criterion in So/actingCristina C. David. Projects. Er[{ndaM. Medalla.

3. W.P,_8303 Changing Comparative Advantage in Philippine 8. S.P,:_ 8303 Monetary Affgregates and Economic Activity.Rice Production. Laurian J. Unnevehr and Arse- Mario B_Lamberte,nio M, Balisacan. 9_ S_P_=/_8304 Effective Protection Rates and Internal hldirect

4. W.P._8304 The Impact of Government Policies on Philippine Taxes in _he Philippine Se_ing . Rosario G,Sugar. Gerald Nelsonand MerceditaAgcaoili. Manasan.

5. W.P.#8305 Comparative Advantage and Government Price 10; S.P.-#6305 Response to Balance of Payments Crises in theIntervention Policies in Forestry. John H_ Power 1970s Korea and the Philippines, John H, power.andTeresi_aTurnanen9, 11_ S.P_:#8401 A Study of Philippine Real Property Taxation,

6. W.P._8306 Government Expenditures and Agricultural Poll- CayetanoW. Paderanga,Jr.cies in the Philippines 1955-1980. Manuel S. J. de 12_ S.P._P8402 Public Enterprise in the Philippines in 1982: ALeon. Definitional and Taxonomical Exerci$a. Rosario

7. W.P, ;/#:8307 Economic Incentives and Comparative Advantage G_Manasan,in the Livestock Industry, Liborio S- Cabanilla, 13, S.P._-#-8403 Estimating the 3hedow Exchange Rate, the

8. W.P.._-8308 An Analysis of the Economic Policies Affecting Shadow Wage Rate and the Social Rate ofThe Philippine Coconut Industry. Ramon Clarete Discount for the Philippine_ Erlinda M. Mcdalla.and J, Roumasset. 14. S_P_c#8404 Development Finance and State Banking: A

9. W.P._/_8309 Economic Incentives and Cooperative Advantage ,_Jrvey of Experience. EditaA_Tan-in the Philippine Cotton industry. Arsenio 1.5. $_P._:8405 Derived Protectio_ for Nontraded PrimaryBalisaCan. Product- Erlinda M_ Medalla.

10. W.P.#8401 Intersectoral C_pital Flows and Balanced Agro- 16. S.P._t:/8406 Modelling the Effects of Devaluation on Prices,Industrial Development. in the Philippine_ Me- Output and the Trade Balance: The Philippnenuel S. J. de Leon. Experience. Ma_CeciliaGonzates.

Lll. W.P.##-8402 Forest Land Management in the Context of Na* 17_ S.P.@8407 The Development Bank of the Philippines andtional Land Use. Adolfo V. Revilla.Jr. the Financial Crisis, A Descriptive Analysi_

12_ W.P,_8403 Policy Issues on Commercial Forest Management, Mario B_ Lamberte.Cerenilla A. Cruz and Marian Segura-delos

18_ S.P._8501 The Protection Structure, ResOurce Flows andAngeles. the Capital-Labor Ratio in Philippine Manufac-

13. W.P.#8404 The Impact of Government Policies on Forest turing: A Short Empiric,el Note: Eriinda M.ResourcesUtilization. GeraldC. Nelson_ Medalla,

14. W.P.# 8405 Population Pre_cure, Migration and MarketS:19_ S,P._t_-8502 A Decomposition Analysis of Philippine Export

Implic#tion$ for Up/and Development Me. and Import Performance, 1974-1982 PoncianoConcepcionCruz, S. total, Jr.

15, W.P._E8406 Tenure, Technology and Productivity of Agro,20_ S,P.5#/8503 Philippine Export and Terms of Trade Instability,

forestry Schem_ Aria Doris Capistrano and 1965.1982. Ponciano S. total, Jr.Sam Fujisal_a. 21. S.P.-7_8504 Methodology for Measuring Protection and Com-16. W,P.-[/8407 Environmental Effects of Watenhed Moclifice-tion¢ Wilfredo P, David. parative Adavantage. Ertinda M. Medaila and

17. W.P.#8408 Management and Cost of Watem_hedReforesta, John H. Power.22. S.P,:/V:8505 Food, Fuel and Urbanization in the Philippine¢tion: ThePantabangenand Magat JoseA, Galvez.

18, W.P.#8409 Workshop Papers on "The Con__quencesof Small Alejandro N. Herrin, Manuel F, Montes, RodolfoRice Farm Mechanization in the Philippines'; F. Ftorentino.

23. S.P.-#8506 Rural Development Experience: Economic Pet=-19, W.P._8501 A Review of Welfare in the Coconut industry,Sylvia N. Guerrero. pective_ Robert E. Evenson,

20. W.P._8502 Financing the Budget Deficit in the Philippines 24_ S.P._8507 Financial Liberalization and the Internal Struc-ture of the Capital Markets: Th_ Philippine Case.

Eli M. Remolona. Mario B, Lamberte_

21. W.P. _8601 Trade Liberalization Experience in the Philip- 25. S.P. #8508 The Rural Banking System: Need for Reform¢pines, 1960-84, Florian Alburo and Geoffrey Mario B, Lamberte_Shepherd. 26. S.P. #8_09 Social Adequacy and Economic Effects of Social

22. W.P. # 8602 integrated Summary Report: Population Pressure Security: The Phtlippine Case. _ario B_ Lam-and Migration -- Implications for Upland Develop- berte.

mont. Ma. Concepcion J. Cruz. 25. S.P.-#8601 Impact of BO/ Incentives on Rate of Return, FactorPrices and Relative Factor U_e: A ComparativeAnalysis of incentives Under the Omnibus Invest.

PID$ STAFF PAPERS menls Code of 1981 {P.D. 1789) and the Inwnt-ment Incentive Policy Act (B.P. 391). Rosario G.

I.S.P.@8201 An Analysis of Fertilizer Policies in the Philip- Manasan.pines. Cristina C. David and Arsanio M, Balisacan. 26, S.P.c#8602 Financial Reforms and Balance-of_Payments Crisis:(Printed al_oin J_P.D,1981) The Caseof the Philippine_ E. Remolona and Mark)

;), S.P,#8202 Credit and Price Policies in Phih'ppine Agriculture. Lamberte.CristinaC. David. 27. S.P_@8603 A Macroeconom[c Overview of Public Enterprises

_. S.P.@8203 Government Policies and Farm Mechanization in in the Philippines, 1975-1984. Rosario G. Mane-the Pht/ippine¢ CristinaC. David. san_

I II | II I IIII lib I III

SUPPLEMENT 12 MAY-JUNE 1986I I I II I III II II II I

COMPILATIONOF RESEARCH STUDIES

AREA OF STUDY TITLE OF RESEARCH GEOGRAPHICAL PROJECT COOR- SPONSORING AGENCY

PROJECT(S)/STUDY COVERAGE DINATOR(PC) OR OR INSTITUTIONALPRINCIPAL IN- AFFILIATION OF

VESTIGATOR(PI) RESEARCHER(S) a

I. Agriculture and Food

Agriculture and Rice Pohcy Study Philippines Aniceto M. Sobrepefia NEDA

Food Policies (PC)

Paper on Food Policy Philippines Aniceto M. Sobrepefia NEDA

Issues (PC)

Study on the Farm Philippines Aniceto M. Sobrepefia NEDA

Pricing Regime (PC)

Alternative Approaches Philippines Eduardo Corpuz, et al. NEDA

to Improving Agri- (PC)cultural L-acentives

for Small Producers/Farmers

Impact of Economic. Philippines Aniceto M. Sobrepefia NEDA•

Policies on Agricultural (PC)Development

Credit and NEDA Poverty Study- Pltilippines Meliza H. Agabin TBAC/NEDA

Extension Se_rices Chapter on Analysis (PC)of Government Credit

Programs

Study on the Lending Philippines Aniceto M. Sobrepefia NEDA/ICCPolicies of Govern- (PC)ment Financial

Institutions to the

Agricultural Sector

Agricultural Credit Philippines Meliza H. Agabin OPM/TBACStudy (PC)

An Evaluation of Philippines Meliza H. Agabin TBAC

the Integrated (PC)

Rural Financing

Program

Regional Food Study on the ESCAP Asia and the Aniccto M. Sobrepefia NEDA

Security Proposal for Regional Pacific (PC)

Food Security

Arrangements

. III I Ill II l II I II II III I I I I

PIDS DEVELOPMENT RESEARLq_rNEWS 13 MAY-JUNE 1986I IIIIIII

PHILIPPINE ECONOMICDEVELOPMENT

STATUS b ABSTRACT

Completed This sectoral study on rice identifies ShOlt-telm policy responses in anticipation of a rice ShOltage in 1985. Longer termDecember 1984 strategies that could be adopted beyond 1985 are also brought up.

Completed ]'he study briefs the reader on food policy issues and related problems existing in the country. Relevant areas such as

1984 local goods production, consumption, nutrition and trade are likewise covered.

Completed An analysis of the effects of government price intervention policies on selected prime commodities is the focus of thisNovember 1984 study. The items under review are rice, corn, coconut, sugar, cotton and tobacco.

Completed The study provides a discussion and evaluation of policies which affect agricultural production undertakings. Afterwards,

July 1985 a series of incentives geared towards the improvement of farming systems and cropping patterns are brought forward.

This aims to encourage farmers to expand their farming activities to enable them to realize bigger profit margins.

Completed Government priorities in the 1970s shifted in favor of industry as evidenced by a number of macroeconomic policies whichAugust 1983 produced disincentives for the agricultural sector. In addition, dkect government intervention in the pricing of agricultural

commodities, specific export taxes and subsidies have been found to depress farm-gate prices which, in effect, favoredurban consumers, Even foreign exchange policy made agricultural exports cheaper compared to the price of imported in-

puts. in its approach, the study reviews these and other similar policies on agriculture, especially those which have hampered

the promotion of the sector's comparative advantage.

Completed The project analyzes the effectivity of credit programs in raising the living standards of low-income families. Moreover,

March 1986 it also measures the outreach of existing government agricultural credit programs, the costs involved and the benefitsderived.

Completed The study reviews trends of agricultural credit extended by GFIs; thek lending policies and the impact of this credit

May 1985 facility to the sector. Prepared by a technical working group composed of members from PNB, DBP, PAB, LBP, CB, MOF

and the NEDA, with the assistance of TBAC, the findings show that some of the external factors which affected the

ability of GFIs to extend financing to the sector were monetary policies (i.e. tightening of the rediscounting window bythe Central Bank); poor peace and order situation, and the financing of nomviablc projects that were, however, considered

socially and politically desirable. On the other hand, the internal constraints were the inadequacy of loanable funds, loan

processing problems and low collection rates. In the end, the study proposes measures to increase the level of credit to

priority agricultural sectors. Over the long-term, there is a need to develop and maintain an integrated a_ea approach toagricultural lending activities, aside from the commodity-specific programs.

Completed Considered a major accomplishment in the area of agricultural credit, the study provides the fkst ¢omprehensive appraisal

August 1985 of the structural changes and issues resulting from the financial crises of the 1980s, the ensuing tLuancial reforms and in-terest rate deregulation.

Completed The study evaluates the Integrated Rural Financing Program's impact on savings mobilization, participation of farmers in

March 1986 program decisions and planning, and farmer's organizations..Designed to determine whether the IRF attained its objectives,the study looks into levels of production, incomes and repayment capacity of farmer-cooperators. At the end, recommend-

ations are made in order to remove the bottlenecks that hamper the success of the program.

Completed The study reviews Philippine agricultural policies and ESCAP initiatives/proposals pertaining to food security. Tmagible

1983 output of the study is the formulation of appropriate positions on the ESCAP proposals for the Philippines.

I IILIII I I

SUPPLEMENT 14 -


PROJECT(S)]STUDY COVERAGE DINATOR(PC) OR OR INSTITUTIONALPRINCIPAL IN- AFFILIATION OF


II. Industry

Industry Studies Financial Trends from Philippines lrenea V. Tienzo SEC

Identical Firms in (PI)the Top 1000

Corporations

/

Copper Industry Philippines Bienvenido C. Alip (PI) NEDAStudy Ellamehdes S. Antonio

(pI)

The Impact of the Philippines Thomas Aquino, et al. CRC

International Con- (PI)vention Industry to

the PhilippineEconomy

The Construction Philippines Ernesto G. del Rosario NEDA

Materials Industry (2'I)

Study

A Syndicated Philippines Alexander Dacanay (PI) CRCResearch on Felix Kwan (PI) and

Construction Material Manuel Lira (PI)Prices

A Syndicated Research Plfilippines Manuel Lim (PI), CRC

on the Garments Annabelle Cruz (PI)

Exports Industry and Sergio Andal, Jr.

(pI)

A Long-Term Economic Philippines Corazon Guidote (PI) CRCEvaluation of the

Philippine [lousingIndustry

Financial Factors Philippines Jaime Guanzon ASEAN Economic

and Small and Medium (PC) Research Unit

Enterprise Improvement (ISEAS)in the Philippines

Changes in the Philippines Lorna C. Cenzon IDE/UP-ISSIIndustrial Structure (PC)and the Role of

Small and Medium-

Scale Industries in

A_an Countixes:

The Philippine

Experience

An Analysis of the Philippines Milagxos Silva OBM

Administration and (PI)

Fiscal Managementof the Philippine

Coconut Industry

A Report on the Philippines Consuelo T. Reycs NPC

Productivity Assess- (PC)

ment of the SugarIndustry

I Bill I I il [IJlll I

PIDS DEVELOPMENT RESEARCI_BNEWS 15 MAY-JUNE 198b,am i IIIIIIIII I I IIll I I II IIII

;TATUS b ABSTRACT

Completed The study determines the financial trends in terms of annual rates ofr.hange and the absolute levels of six indicators usedNovember 1985 in detezmining the top 1000 corporations in the country. The financial indicators, for which the real trends were deter-

mined include sales, net profit or loss before and after tax, total costs, labor costs, and other costs. These were computed

and their annual rates of change specified.

Completed The study presents an overview of the copper industry from 1.972 to 1982. Included in the ieport are the industry's

September 1985 salient characteristics, composition, production flow, market and financial positions and the prospects for the industry.There is also a discussion on government legislation and policies and its effects on the industry.

Completed The study aims to develop models for quantifying the costs and benefits derived from hosting international conventionsand their efficiency in the use of national resources for this purpose.

Completed Focusing on some of the major sub-sectors of the construction materials industry, the study reviews the wood-based1983 materials, cement, asphalt and aggregates, and reinforcing bars and G.I. sheets. While describing the status and prospects of

the industry, the study also delves into existing problems and measures to help promote the industry.

On-going The study develops a framework for analyzing the escalation of prices for various construction materials.December 1986

_vmpleted The study goes into an analysis of the export potential of the local garments industry and its prospects foi the futttre.It also recommends various approaches to stimulate faster development in the industry.

On-going The study analyzes the problems facing the housing industry in the country. This it achieves by formulating a policy

August 1986 to enhance housing production by the public and private sectors with due consideration of other factors related to housing.

Completed The study surveys a representative sample of small- and medium-scale enterprises in selected regions of 'the PhilippinesJanuary 1985 (i.e., NCR, Regions III, IV and VIII) to determine their financing requirements and sources of funds. Government policies

which affect the SMEs are reviewed and assessed to determine their efficacy in promoting the interests of the sector via

the lending schemes of the government. There is also reference to possible areas of cooperation among the ASEAN coun-

tries along the lines of fmaneial management and fund sources.

Completed The project is a joint study of the Institute of Developing Economies and the U.P. Institute of Small Scale Industries,February 1985 with the assistance of the Small Enterprise and Research Development Foundation of the Philippines (SERDEF). It aims

to highlight, from the macro point of view, the immense contribution of SMEs to the national economy, as well as the

impact of public policies on the sector. At the ftrm level, the study examines the evolution of a small enterprise, its at-

tendant problems and needs, its market orientation and growth potentials.

Completed The study discusses the impact of the coconut industry on the growth of the national economy. Aside from presenting

1984 the highlights of the coconut industry development plan, the study also reviews the financial operations and performance

of the Philippine Coconut Authority (PCA) from 1979 to 1982.

Completed The study evaluates the productivity performance of the sugar industry by looking at labor, capital, materials, and total

1985 factor productivities over a period of 11 yeats. The report gives a separate discussion of the agricultural and milling sector

while analyzing the contributions of the inputs in the sugar industry. Specifically, it aims to identify the factors affecting

industry productivity and the factors that brought its difficulties since 1979_

Ill I I llll IIIIII

=_

SUPPLEMENT 16 -- MAY-JUNE 198(I III II I I ii I I II II II I IIIAREA OF STUDY TITLE OF RESEARCH GEOGRAPHICAL PROJECT COOR _ SPONSORING AGENCY

PROJECT(S)/STUDY COVERAGE DINATOR(PC) OR OR INSTITUTIONAL ,PRINCIPAL IN- AFFILIATION OF


Industry Studies A Monograph on Philippines Consuelo T. Reyes NPCProductivityand (PC)_clatedIssuesin

the PhilippineWood-Based Industries

Productivity Per- Philippines Consuelo T. Reyes NPC

formance of Sugar (PC)

Mills by Region andMill District: CY 1969-70and 1982-83

A Final Report of Philippines Consuelo T. Reyes NPC

the Productivity (PC)Assessment of the

Semi-conductor

Indust/y

III. International Trade and Finance

International Trade Brief on World Trade, International Aniceto M. Sobrepefia NEDA

Economic Recovery (PC)

and Soveieign Debt

Regional (Economic) Assessment of the ASEAN Aniceto M. Sobtepefia NEDA

Cooperation ASEAN Preferential (PC)

Trading Axrangement

The Caribbean Basin International Aniceto M. Sobrepefia NEDA

initiative: An Analysis (PC)

of its InternationalEconomic Effects and

Implications on PhilippineExports to the UnitedStates

A Reassessment of Asia and the Aniceto M. Sobrepefia NEDA

the First Agreement Pacific (PC)on Trade Negotiations

among DevelopingCountries undez the

Economic and Social

Commission for Asiaand the Pacific

(Bangkok Agzeement)

Foreign Assistance Official Development Philippines Romeo A. Reyes NEDAand Investments Assistance to the (PI)

philippines: A Study

of Administrative Capa-

city and Performance

I I III IIII II II III Illll I I

PIDS DEVELOPMENT RESEARCIIPNEWS 17 MAY-JUNE 1986I II I IIII I II IIIIIII II IIIIII

• STATUS b ABSTRACT

Completed The study is an assessment of the wood-based industries limited to the following sectors: 1) logging operations; 2) the

1985 manufacture of wood and cork products; and 3) furniture and fixtures. While focusing on these sectors, the study estab-

lishes the economic performance of the industry using productivity indices for labor and capital. Areas for improvementare suggested to erdaance the industry's potential contribution to the Philippine economy.

Completed On the national level, the productivity trends for the sugar industry were generally downward based on a NPC industry

1985 report. The thrust of this study complements the objectives of the NPC report as it examines the productivity performanceof the sugar industry on a regional and mill district level The determination of the shares of the regions and mill districts

to total cane and sugar production for a given hectarage is an effort to gauge which mills axe performing below or above

average. Towards the end, the study establishes the adequacy of each region to provide the consumption requirements ofits population.

Completed The semi-conductor industry is considered one of the most important industries for the past several years as it has been

1985 a major foreign exchange earner and an employment gcneratiug industry. During the years 1981-83, the demand for the

country's exports were on a decline with the exception of electrical and electronic equipment and components. In supportof this industry, the study analyzes the productivity of inputs to the sector, namely, materials, capital and labor.

2ompleted The paper presents and analyzes the current world economic situation, major issues and prospects of global trade, inter-

March 1985 national finance and foreign investments. Based on current statistical data, the paper suggests the view that the growing

protectionism and high interest rates in the developed countries are aggravating the debt servicing problems of Third Worlddebtor-countries.

Completed The study delves into the ASEAN Preferential Trading Arrangement and the extent to which the agreement has increased

April 1985 the level of interdependence among ASEAN countries. In particular, the paper examines the implementation of the pro-visions of the PTA, (e.g., extension of tariff preferences; long-term quantity contracts and liberalization of non-tariffmeasures) and whether these provisions have intensified trading among ASEAN countries.

Completed The paper examines the implications of the Caribbean Basin initiative on Philippine export to the United States, patti-

September 1983 culariy sugar. To this extent, the paper calls to mind the various preferential instruments under this policy and how theseaffect trading activities between the Philippines and the United States.

Completed The study assesses the trade performance of Intra-Bangkok Agreement member countries and the preferential tariff con-

May 1985 cessions under this agreement. It also discusses the issue of eroding concessions under the ASEAN Preferential Trading

Arrangement to determine appropriate Philippine policy to a second round of negotiations under the Bangkok Agree-ment,

]_ompleted The study analyzes the capacity and performance of the Philippine administrative system regarding matters on official

August 1984 development assistance to the Philippines. It further identifies ways and means by which such capacity and performancecould be enhanced.

I I I II I II IIII I II I

SUPPLEMENT 18 MAY-JUNE 1986I IIlllU| I ......




IV. Human Resource Development

Nutrition and Program foz an Philippines Aniceto M. Sobrepefia NEDA

Health Improved Health (PC)

Care Delivery

System

Study on a Decade of Philippines Romeo A. Reyes FAO/NEDA

FAO-GOP Cooperation (PI)

V. Labor and Employment

Wages and Income An Analysis of the Philippines Virgilio Ifurung OBMPresent National (PI)

Compensation Struc-ture

Mobility A Syndicated Philippines Manuel Lim (PI) CRCResearch on and Ricarte Rey (PI)

Manpower Exports

Labor Productivity Inter-Country Labor Various Grace M. Jubilan NPC

and Energy countries (PC)

Productivity and

Wage Trends inSelected Manufacturing

Subsectors, 1970-1981

VI. Resource Mobilization

Money, Banking and Prices

Commercial and Rural Savings Bulacan and Meliza H. Agabin TBAC

Rural Banking Mobilization Nueva Ecija (PC)

Prices and Inflation Review of Proposals philippines Aniceto M. Sobrepefia NEDA

for Price Adjust- (PC)ments of SpecificCommodities under

Price Control

An Analysis of Philippines Aniceto M_ Sobrepcfia NEDA

Support and Ceiling (PC)Prices for Rice

Financial Markets FINEX-CRC Study Philippines Vaughn Montes (PI)] CRC/FINEX

and Institutions on Financial Reforms FINEX Task Force onFinancial Reforms

Investments, In,- Resource Allocation Philippines Jesus M. Sufiga Feasibility Studiesffastructure and Study I'or the (PC) Fund (NEDA)

Capital Formation Maintenance ofIntiastructure Projects

I I II I I IIIII J 1 1111111

PIDSDEVELOPMENTRESEARI_IPNEWS 19 MAY-JUNE1986

STATUS b ABSTRACT

Completed The study identifies options and tedireetions for policy and programs on health care by examining the different aspects of

July 1985 the present health care delivery system (e.g., existing government health programs, health financing and infoimation dis-

semination efforts, etc.). The examination is done to serve as inputs to formulate new measures in improving the healthdelivery system by maximizing affordability and access to medical services by the poor,

Completed The study looks into the Food and Agriculture O_ganization's programmes ha the Phillipines in the areas of health and

October 1985 nutrition, agricultural production and rural development.

Completed The paper presents an analysis of the present national compensation structure as it relates to the Constitutional provision1985 on the standardization of government employees' compensation. Several PDs on compensation are presented and dis=

cussed like P.D. 985 (Budgetary Reform Decree on Compensation and Position Classification) and P.D. 1177 (BudgetReform Decree).

On-going The study analyzes the demand and supply potential of manpower exports. Moreover, it also identifies the skills which

December 1986 shall be in demand within the next five years and the growth prospects of the labor export industry.

Completed The study is an update of inter-country comparisons of "labor and energy factor productivity and wage measures in manu-

December 1984 Iacturing industries among member countries of the ASEAN, the Pacific Basin and some other developed countries. Thedeveloping countries that axe included are those with high external debt, thus, making the country comparison with the

Philippines particularly relevant.

On-going The study assesses the deposit generating performance of the Cooperative Rural Bank of Bulacan and the Community

1989 Rural Bank of San Isidro in Nueva Ecija in an effort to identify the factors that wolk in favor of increasing deposit,,and improving the over-all performance of the banks. Being an action-oriented research project, saving schemes were pilot-

tested among the less-privileged households of Sto. Cristo and San Isid_o, the communities covered by the banks, to see

whether these schemes would help expand the deposit base of selected banks.

Completed The paper seriously examines the proposals to increase prices of specific commodities placed under price control, or toDecember 1984 delist _me of these commodities, in view of increasing production costs and other market considerations. With the use

of input-output analysis, the impact of such price increases on the consumer price index (CPI), and consequently on wagesis likewise looked into.

Completed The study compares the trends in market prices of rice with officially pegged prices. The factors responsible for the price

Jalluary 1985 variance are in turn analyzed to propose support measures to current rice price policy responses ainacd at improving farmer'sincomes and stabilizing prices.

Completed The study analyzes the current state of the Philippine financial system and proposes some reforms in relation to the co un-

September 1985 try's stabilization program and financial liberalization scheme.L

On-going The study identifies the maintenance activities of selected infrastructure projects and then quantifies the requirements of

maintenance (i.e., cost of materials, labor and equipment) in terms of financial outlays.

I II I III III I II II II II I

SUPPLEM ENT 20 ,. MAY-JUNE 1986I IIIII I I I II III II IIII I IIII I II IIAREA OF STUDY TITLE OF RESEARCH GEOGRAPHICAL PROJECT COOR- SPONSORING AGENCY

PROIECT(S)]STUDY COVERAGE DINATOR(PC) OR OR INSTITUTIONALPRINCIPAL IN- AFFILIATION OF


Public Finance

National Budget Notes on the Philippines Romeo i. de Vera, OBMSensitivity of et al. (PI)

Revenues and the 1985 Cash

EXpenditures Budget with respect

to Changes in certainMacroeconomic Parameters

Towards the Philippines Narcisa O. Santos OBM

Strengthening of tile (PI)Local Government

Revenue Posture

Foreign Exchange Philippines Romeo I. de Vera, OBM

Movements and the et al. (PI)

1984 Budget

Rationalizing the Philippines Asuncion S. Ramos (PI) OBM

International Commit- and Reseina S. Bhagwani

ments Fund (PI)

The 1973-1983 Philippines Darlene May P. Casiano (PI) OBMExpenditures for and Yolanda R. Reyes

Health and the (PI)1984 Thrusts

Sectoral Ex- Philippines Research Staff OBM

penditures Analyses, (PD1976-1986

Public Entelprise The Lending Pro- Philippines Roberto Concepcion, OBMgrams of Three (PI) et al.Major Non-Financia/Government Col- •

potations

Tax Policies The Modified Philippines Angel Q. Yoingco NTRC

Gross Income (PI)Taxation

VII. Regional/Rural and Urban Development

Rural and Urban Study on Rent Philippines Aniceto M. Sobrepefia NEDA

Planning Control (PC)

1983 Nationwide Philippines Thomas Aquino, et al. CRC

Survey ofthe Socio- (PI)

Economic impact ofRural Electrification

PIDS DEVELOPMENT RESEARL,-m-NEWS 21 MAY-JUNE 1986lU II I IIIIII il IIII

- STATUS b ABSTRACT

Completed The paper explains the budget changes due to deviations of some macroeeonomic parameters from expected levels as

1985 the budget is implemented during the year. Aside from presenting the impact of changes in the rates of foreign exchangeand domestic inflation on the national budget, the paper also discusses budgetary effects of deviations from projected

levels of specific variables, anaong them, spot price and volume of oil imports and foreign and domestic interest rates.

Completed The paper reviews the level and trend of national financial assistance to local government in the Philippines. It presentsand analyzes the local revenue picture for 1982-1984 and the problems affecting local revenue generation. Also, it looks

at the efforts of the national government and the Ministry of Local Government in the task of increasing the level of localrevenues.

Completed The paper presents a quantification of the impact of foreign exchange rate changes on the budget program of the national

1984 government. This aims to enable decision-makers to fully assess the fiscal consequences of changes in the exchange rate.

Possible effects of further reduction in the peso-dollaz parity are also considered in line with the policy of letting the pesoseek' its true market value.

Completed The paper assesses existing international commitments of the Philippines considering that the countiy's membership in

1984 international organizations entails the remittance of annual contributions. The International Commitment Fund (ICF)

is examined in terms of budgetary procedures, the costs of and benefits from ICF activities_

Completed The paper analyzes the budgetary allocations for the health sector for the period 1978-1983. Sectoral components and1984 their relative expenditure levels (in relation to. total allocations for the social services sector), total government ex-

penditures, GNP as well as health expenditures of other Asian countries are discus_d. The paper also presents the policy

and program reforms initiated on health and the 1984 thrusts, as enunciated in the plans of the Ministry of Health.

On-going The paper puts together several studies done on the analysis of expenditttre patterns of various sectors for the period1986 1976-1986. These ale in the areas of education and manpower development, defense, agriculture, health, nutrition and

population, industry and trade, labor and tourism. Presented in this paper is an analysis of the growth rate of sectoral

expenditures, its shale in GNP and total national budget. Likewise, a comparative discourse is made on expenditure pat-terns of other Asian countries for these sectors.

Completed The study delves into the lending programs of the Local Water Utilities Administration (LWUA), the National Elecifi-

1985 fieation Administration (NEA) and the National Housing Authority (NHA). A comparison is made of the lending pro-

grams of these firms as regards their lending policies and the conduct of lending operations. The variations in lending

policies appear to explain the difference in the corporations' individual capacities to self-finance thek programs. In turn,this capacity is influenced to a large extent by the collection efficiency of "old" loans and borrower commitment to

project viability and cost iecovery.

Completed Drawing from the history of income taxation in the Philippines, the study discusses how the me dified b_oss income taxationDecember 1981 scheme (MGP) was developed. Moreover, it specifies the provisions that were made in order to ensure that the scheme is

more responsive to equity and revenue goals.

Completed The study determines the desirability of lifting the tent control law in the Philippines. Variables taken into account by tire

November 1984 study include the ability of lessees to absorb varying rates of rental increases, the required return on investments andhousing demand and supply considerations.

Completed The study presents a baseline social and economic data set for future research in rural electrification. There is detailed

September 1985 discussion on the geographical reach of electric service, cost of electricity and corresponding consumer attitudes towards it,including the factors affecting the demand for electricity in the rltral areas.

I IlL IIKI II II i, il=,i .......

SUPPLEMENT 22 MAY-JUNE 1986I IIIII




VIII. Development Planning

Methods and Approaches

Population, Resources, Philippines UPPI, UPSE and DAP PCFEnvironment and the (PIs)

Philippine Future (PREPF)

Exclusive Economic Philippines Antonio N. Pangilinan MNR

Zone/Law of the Sea (PI)

Project III-Policy

Research Study

An Econometric Philippines Edgardo P. Zialcita (PI), CBP

Analysis of the et al.

Philippine Economy -

An Attempt at PolicySimulation

A Framework for Philippines Narcisa O. Santos OBM

the RegionalAllocation of

Funds

Abbreviations Used:

NEDA - National Economic and Development Authority UP.-ISSI - U.P. Institute of Small Scale Industries

TBAC - Technical Board for Agricultural Credit ICC - Investment Coordination CommitteeOPM - Office of the Prime Minister ISEAS - institute of Southeast Asian Studies

SEC - Securities and Exchange Commission (Singapore)CRC - Center for Research and Communication IDE - Institute of Developing Economies (Japan)

NPC - National Productivity Commission PNB - Philippine National Bank

OHM - Office of Budget and Management PCF - Population Center FoundationFINEX - Financial Executives Association of the Philippines CBP - Central Bank of the Philippines

UPPI - U.P. Population Institute MOF - Ministry of FinanceUPSE - U.P, School of Economics DBP - Development Bank of the Philippines

MNR - Ministry of Natural Resources LBP - Land Bank of the PhilippinesNTRC - National Tax Research Center PAB - Philippine Amanah Bank

FAO - Food and Agriculture Organization DAP - Development Academy of the Philippines

Notes:

aIn eases where there appears two (2) or more institutions involved in the research wo]ect, this has been indicated. The first institution cited is

normally the funding or sponsoring agency.

bStatus indicators are "completed", "on-going", or "pipeline". Hence, the date that appears after the "status" indicator states the date of corn-!pletton (if completed); or the expected date of completion (if on-going); or dare of launching (if pipeline).

I II IIII1 I IIIIIII1• I III ,Ill I

PIDS DEVELOPMENT RESEARCIlIINEWS 23 _ MAY-JUNE 1986I III IIII I llllll III II I

_TATUS b ABSTRACT

Completed The study attempts to predict the physical, economic, social and pohtica/conditions in the Philippines by the year 2000.

1977 As such, it delves into such issues as resources and the environment, health, education, productivity and equity of income

distribution. Moreover, it entertains policy options to secure the "best" possible scenario for the country in the aboveareas of concern.

Completed The research project aims to assist decision-makers in the formulation of alternative policy options regarding the Exclusive

April 1983 Economic Zone and other related Law of the Sea issues. Specifically, the study identifies business and economic oppor-tunities provided by the EEZ, and draws up a system of linkages between private firms and government agencies involved

in the mobilization and utilization of the zone's resources. A substantial outline of policy positions of various states inthe Southeast Asian region, including the major maritime powers, and the Philippines is made.

Completed The study makes use of a standard econometric model developed by the Central Bank to reflect the main characteristics of1983 the Philippine economy. In particular, the study focuses attention on the channels of transmission of monetary policy

effects on target variables like prices, real income and the balance of payments.

Completed The paper proposes a framework which can be used by regional ministries in 'budget allocation. The framework reinforces

1985 initial efforts to use socioeconomic indicators and target outputs as criteria in resource allocation.

THE PIDS RESEARCH PROGRAM

In accordance with its mandate (d) improving planning methods In order to allow the research

of assisting the government in plan. and approaches, program to proceed cumulativelyning and policy formulation, the The main basis for the substantive and in a coordinated fashion, PIDSPhilippine Institute for Development content of the Institute's Research research activities have been organized

Studies has evolved a research pro- program is the Philippine Develop- into five research themes, namely:

gram specifically aimed towards: ment Plan. Accordingly, the program *Employment, Human Resource(a) providing a framework for plan has emphasized policy issues sur. Development and Technology

and policy formulation; rounding the question of how develop- *Resource MobilizationCo) assessing the effects of policies, ment can be accelerated and sustained

• Trade Expansion, Agricultural andprograms and projects on the with special attention being given tocountry's development goals; the expansion of productive employ- Industrial Development and Energy

(c) helping in the identification of ment opportunities and to the related *Poverty, Income and Wealth Dis-strategies designed to cope question of how the benefits of tributionwith anticipated bottlenecks development can be distributed more *Regional, Rural and Urban Devel-in the long-run future; and widely and equitably, opment

I II III III II H H III I I I

A

PIDS DEVELOPMENT RESEARCRIIEWS 24 MAY-JUNE 1986Illl I I

SPECIAL PUBLICATIONS AVAILABLE

1. INDUSTRIAL PROMOTION POLICIES IN THE P125,00 13. MONOGRAPH NO. Ill: ECONOMIC EVALUATION P50.00

PHILIPPINES OF THE PHILIPPINE ALCOGAS AND COCO-

Romeo Bautista, John Power and Associates DIESEL PROGRAMS

2. SURVEY OF PHILIPPINE DEVELOPMENT RE- P 30.00 Armando Armas and Dennis Joyee CrydeSEARCH I 14. MONOGRAPH NO. IV : A SURVEY OF MATERIALS _" 32,00

IN INTRODUCTORY ECONOMIC EDUCATION3. SURVEY OF PHILIPPINE DEVELOPMENT RE- F 30.00

Gerardo P. Sicat

SEARCH II 15. MONOGRAPH NO, W MODELLING THE IMPACT _';35.004. SUMMARIES OF COMPLETED RESEARCH PRO- P 20,00 OF SMALL FARM MECHANIZATION

JECTS, VOL_ I [a co-publication venture with the,International

5, INTEGRATION' PARTICIPATION AND EFFEC- Rice Research Insitute (IRRI)]TIVENESS: AN ANALYSIS OF THE OPERATIONS 16, MONOGRAPH Vh PHILIPPINE POOR P 45.00

AND EFFECTS OF FIVE RURAL HEALTH DELl- P 25.00 17, MONOGRAPH Vlh.PUBLIC POLICY AND THE P 40.00VERY MECHANISMS PHILIPPINE HOUSING MARKET

Ledivina Carir_o and Associates Edna Angeles18, MONOGRAPH VIII: REVIEW AND APPRAISAL _' 35.006. ESSAYS IN DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS IN P 55.00

OF THE GOVERNMENT MONETARY ANDHONOR OF HARRY T. OSHIMA (Paper-

FISCAL POLICY RESPONSE TO THE 1983-84bound)

BALANCE OF-PAYMENT CRISISP125,OO

(hard- Marie 8. Lamberte, et al.

bound) 19. MONOGRAPH IX: PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH IN $k 45_00PHILIPPINE MANUFACTURING: RETROSPECT

7- ROW PARTICIPATORY IS PARTICIPATORY DE- _ 86.25 AND FUTU RE PROSPECTSVELOPMENT? Richard Hooley

Gelia T. Castillo 20. MONOGRAPH X: FORECASTING MONTHLYINFLATION IN THE PHILIPPINES P=40.00

8. THE SPATIAL AND URBAN DIMENSIONS OF DE P125.00Roberto S. Mariano

VELOPMENT IN THE PHILIPPINES

Ernesto Pernia, Cayetano W. Paderanga, 21. MONOGRAPH Xl: A HISTORICAL AND ff'13.00CURRENT PERSPECTIVE OF PHILIPPINE

Victorina Hermo$o and Associates ECONOMIC PROBLEMS

9, ENERGY AND STRUCTURAL CHANGE IN THE Gerardo P. SleetASIA-PACIFIC REGION (PAPERS AND PROCEED-INGS OF THE THIRTEENTH PACIFIC TRADE 22, JOURNAL OF PHILIPPINE DEVELOPMENT P 35.00

AND DEVELOPMENT CONFERENCE) _200.00 (1981, 1982, 1983, 1984 and 1985 issues) per copyP 60,00

10_ PHILIPPINE EMPLOYMENT IN THE SEVENTIES _ 75.00 annual subs- (Rosa Linda P. Tidalgo and Emmanuel F. Esguetra eriptiot]

11. MONOGRAPH NO. I: A sTUDY OF ENERGY- _" 15,00 23. ECONOMIC POLICIES FOR FOREST RESOURCES P" 17_00ECONOMY INTERACTION IN THE PHILIPPINES MANAGEMENT (Summary of the Papers and

Leander Alejo Proceedingsof the Workshop) edited by Wilfrldo Cruz

12_ MONOGRAPH NO. II: INDUSTRIAL POLICY AND P 18.00 24. ECONOMIC RECOVERY AND LONG - RUN P 50.00DEVELOPMENT IN THE ASEAN COUNTRIES GROWTH: AGENDA FOR REFORMS

Romeo Bautista VOLUME 1 (M_IN REPORT)Florian A. Alburo, et al

DEVEL_T RESEARCH NEWS IS a bi-m0nthly publicat[_ Of_the :[PH_IPPINE INSTITUTEIIIF_ _Ol_".MENT STUDIES (PIDS). It highlights findings and recommendations culled from PIDS.sponsored researches or _ated

studies done by other institutions. PIDS seminars_ publications,_ on_go_ anti,forthcoming projects Which ate of i$_erestto policymakers, planners, administrators, and researchers arealso'announced.

PIDS is a non-stock, non-profit government research institutioa engaged in iong.term policy-oriented xcse_ci.¢_This

publication is part of the Institute'sprogram to disseminate inf0tm=Rion'in orderto promotethe utilizaflofi'O_ rv_ai_hfindings.

The views and opinions published here axe.those of the authors and do not i_eoess_tily r_flect those of the .Iim_l_:

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THE ESIA WID MACRO COMPONENT PROJECT · VOLUME IV NO. 3 MAY-JUNE 1986 ISSN 0115-9097 I I illl I I...

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Transcript of THE ESIA WID MACRO COMPONENT PROJECT · VOLUME IV NO. 3 MAY-JUNE 1986 ISSN 0115-9097 I I illl I I...