The Energy Challenge

With Thanks to Dr. Steve Koonin, BP for energy charts

Farrokh NajmabadiProf. of Electrical EngineeringDirector of Center for Energy ResearchUC San Diego

September 26, 2007

Energy and Well Being

With industrialization of emerging nations, energy use is expected to grow ~ 4 fold in this century (average 1.6% annual growth rate)

With industrialization of emerging nations, energy use is expected to grow ~ 4 fold in this century (average 1.6% annual growth rate)

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0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000

GDP per capita (PPP, $2000)

Prim

ary

Ener

gy p

er c

api

ta (G

J)

US

Australia

Russia

BrazilChina

India

S. Korea

Mexico

Ireland

Greece

France

UKJapan

Malaysia

Energy use increases with Economic Development

Quality of Life is strongly correlated to energy use. HDI: (index reflecting life expectancy at birth + adult literacy & school enrolment + GNP (PPP) per capita)

There is a large disparity in energy use

Worldwide Average power consumption per person = 2,350 Watts

Use is very unevenly distributed

USA - 10,500 Watts

California - 7,300 Watts

UK - 5,200 Watts

China - 1,650 Watts (growing 10% pa)

India - 700 Watts

Bangladesh - 210 Watts

Worldwide Average power consumption per person = 2,350 Watts

Use is very unevenly distributed

USA - 10,500 Watts

California - 7,300 Watts

UK - 5,200 Watts

China - 1,650 Watts (growing 10% pa)

India - 700 Watts

Bangladesh - 210 Watts

1.6 billion people (over 25% of the world’s population) lack electricity:

Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2006

Distances travelled to collect fuelwood in rural Tanzania; the average load is around 20 kg

Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2006

Deaths per year (1000s) caused by indoor air pollution (biomass 85% + coal 15%); total is 1.5 million – over half children under five

Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2006

Annual deaths worldwide from various causes

Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2006

Quality of Life is strongly correlated to energy use.

Typical goals: HDI of 0.9 at 3 toe/cap for developing countries. For all developing countries to reach this point, would need world energy

use to double with today’s population, or increase 2.6 fold with the 8.1 billion expected in 2030.

Typical goals: HDI of 0.9 at 3 toe/cap for developing countries. For all developing countries to reach this point, would need world energy

use to double with today’s population, or increase 2.6 fold with the 8.1 billion expected in 2030.

HDI: (index reflecting life expectancy at birth + adult literacy & school enrolment + GNP (PPP) per capita)

World Primary Energy Demand is expect to grow substantially

Wor

ld E

nerg

y D

eman

d (M

toe)

Data from IAE World Energy Outlook 2006 Reference (Red) and Alternative (Blue) scenarios.

World population is projected to grow from 6.4B (2004) to 8.1B (2030). Scenarios are very sensitive to assumption about China.

Data from IAE World Energy Outlook 2006 Reference (Red) and Alternative (Blue) scenarios.

World population is projected to grow from 6.4B (2004) to 8.1B (2030). Scenarios are very sensitive to assumption about China.

Energy supply will be dominated by fossil fuels for the foreseeable future

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1980 2004 2010 2015 2030

MtoeOtherRenewables

Biomass &waste

Hydro

Nuclear

Gas

Oil

Coal

’04 – ’30 Annual Growth

Rate (%)

Total

6.5

1.3

2.0

0.7

2.0

1.3

1.8

1.6

Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2006 (Reference Case), Business as Usual (BAU) case

Some groups claim that we are running out of fossil fuels.

IEA study indicates that we are not running out of fossil fuels in the short term

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Oil Gas Coal

R/P Ratio 41 yrs.

R/P Ratio 67 yrs.

R/P Ratio 164 yrs.

Proven Proven

ProvenYet to Find

Yet to Find

Yet to Find

Unconventional

Unconventional

Reserv

es &

Resou

rces (

bn

boe)

Short term issue is the distribution of fossil fuels, i.e., Energy Security. Long term issue is availability of liquid fuels for transportation.

Short term issue is the distribution of fossil fuels, i.e., Energy Security. Long term issue is availability of liquid fuels for transportation.

Energy Security- World-wide Oil Flow

Energy security – natural gasGlobal LNG flows

California and Baja California becoming major importer of LNG

CO2 concentration in the atmosphere is rising due to fossil fuel use

The global temperature is increasing

There is a plausible causal connection between CO2 concentration and global temperature (global warming) But this is a ~1% effect in a complex, noisy system Scientific case is complicated by natural variability, ill-understood

non-linear behavior, etc.

The global temperature is increasing

There is a plausible causal connection between CO2 concentration and global temperature (global warming) But this is a ~1% effect in a complex, noisy system Scientific case is complicated by natural variability, ill-understood

non-linear behavior, etc.

Global Warming: The Earth is getting warmer.

Green bars show 95% confidence intervals

J. Hansen et al., PNAS 103: 14288-293 (26 Sept 2006)

CO2 concentration will grow geometrically!

The earth absorbs anthropogenic CO2 at a limited rate The lifetime of CO2 in the atmosphere is ~ 1000 years The atmosphere will accumulate emissions during the 21st Century

Impact of higher CO2 concentrations is uncertain ~ 2X pre-industrial is a widely discussed stabilization target (550 ppm) Reached by 2050 under IEA Reference Scenario shown.

To stabilize CO2 concentration at 550 ppm, emissions would have to drop to about half of their current value by the end of this century This in the face of a five fold increase of energy demand in the next 100

years (1.6% per year emissions growth) Modest emissions reductions only delay the growth of concentration (20%

emissions reduction buys 15 years).

The earth absorbs anthropogenic CO2 at a limited rate The lifetime of CO2 in the atmosphere is ~ 1000 years The atmosphere will accumulate emissions during the 21st Century

Impact of higher CO2 concentrations is uncertain ~ 2X pre-industrial is a widely discussed stabilization target (550 ppm) Reached by 2050 under IEA Reference Scenario shown.

To stabilize CO2 concentration at 550 ppm, emissions would have to drop to about half of their current value by the end of this century This in the face of a five fold increase of energy demand in the next 100

years (1.6% per year emissions growth) Modest emissions reductions only delay the growth of concentration (20%

emissions reduction buys 15 years).

Reducing emissions is an enormous, complex challenge; technology development must play the central role.

Reducing emissions is an enormous, complex challenge; technology development must play the central role.

U.S. Annual Energy Use By Sectors

U.S. Annual CO2 Emission from the Energy Consumption

Many sources contribute to the emission of greenhouse gases

It is more important to consider Emissions instead of Energy end-use.It is more important to consider Emissions instead of Energy end-use.

Technologies to meet the energy challenge do not exist

Improved efficiency and Conservation Huge scope but demand has always risen faster due to long turn-over

time.

Renewables (will be discussed in follow-up lectures) Intermittency, cost, environmental impact.

Carbon sequestration Requires handling large amounts of C (Emissions to 2050 =2000Gt

CO2)

Fission (will be discussed in follow-up lectures) fuel cycle and waste disposal

Fusion (will be discussed in follow-up lectures) Probably a large contributor in the 2nd half of the century

Improved efficiency and Conservation Huge scope but demand has always risen faster due to long turn-over

time.

Renewables (will be discussed in follow-up lectures) Intermittency, cost, environmental impact.

Carbon sequestration Requires handling large amounts of C (Emissions to 2050 =2000Gt

CO2)

Fission (will be discussed in follow-up lectures) fuel cycle and waste disposal

Fusion (will be discussed in follow-up lectures) Probably a large contributor in the 2nd half of the century

In Summary, …

In a CO2 constrained world uncertainty abounds

No carbon-neutral commercial energy technology is available today. Carbon sequestration is the determining factor for fossil fuel electric

generation. A large investment in energy R&D is needed. A shift to a hydrogen economy or carbon-neutral syn-fuels is also

needed to allow continued use of liquid fuels for transportation. Problem cannot be solved by legislation or subsidy. We need technical

solutions. Technical Communities should be involved or considerable public resources

would be wasted

The size of energy market ($1T annual sale, TW of power) is huge. Solutions should fit this size market 100 Nuclear plants = 20% of electricity production $50B annual R&D represents 5% of energy sale

No carbon-neutral commercial energy technology is available today. Carbon sequestration is the determining factor for fossil fuel electric

generation. A large investment in energy R&D is needed. A shift to a hydrogen economy or carbon-neutral syn-fuels is also

needed to allow continued use of liquid fuels for transportation. Problem cannot be solved by legislation or subsidy. We need technical

solutions. Technical Communities should be involved or considerable public resources

would be wasted

The size of energy market ($1T annual sale, TW of power) is huge. Solutions should fit this size market 100 Nuclear plants = 20% of electricity production $50B annual R&D represents 5% of energy sale

Thank you!Any Questions?