The end of Fidel and its Effect on the Political Situation in Cuba

Illness and Suspicion• 1995-2005: Brain Disease, Cancer², Neurological

Problems, Heart Attack, Parkinson’s Disease, Terminal Pancreatic Cancer¹

• December 24th 20006: Confirmation of Diverticulitus, Dr. García Sabrido

• July 31st 2006: Fidel passes temporary power to Raùl

¹Medical New Today May 2006²Sydney Morning Herald. September 24, 2004³El Periódico de Catalunya December 24 2006

Raùl Castro• Officially elected as president on February 24th 2008• "I have always been discreet, that is my way.” ¹• “Fidel has been the visionary, but hopelessly

disorganised,"² •  "Raúl has a reputation for being more politically

repressive then Fidel, but he is also more organized, more practical and more of an executive than Fidel.”³

¹Raùl Castro: 2006 Interview²Brian Latell, Former CIA Officer, Author of ‘After Fidel’³ Samuel Farber, Political Scientist at Brooklyn College

Change in Leadership, Change in Policy

• Delegating vs. “Leading the Circus”• Having the $$ to “play the political game”• Opening the private sector• Communist Party Congress; first since 14 Years¹• Releasing Political Prisoners; Exile & Gateway to US/EU

relations• “Excessive Prohibitions”, cell Phone and computers, rise in

salaries and state pensions²• Changing Relationship with Hugo Chàvez?

¹BBC: Is Cuba set for major changes in 2011? 2 January 2011²BBC: Profile: Raul Castro 14 March 2011

Legacy of Communism• “Caudillismo”• Castro’s leadership

is nontransferable.• A change in Cuban

leadership could mean a change in the type of government that the Cuban people embrace.

Communism to Democracy• When Fidel Castro’s regime departs, a move

from communism to a democratic form of government by new Cuban leadership will not occur overnight.

• To change a country’s economy, productivity, and government are complex issues that take time and resources.

Cuba’s Effect on the US• It is in the U.S.’ interest that Cuba transform to a

democratic form of government and that this transition occur as smoothly as possible.

• Any resultant chaos from a transition in government would most likely affect the U.S.

• Because of the strong Cuban presence in America and because Cuba is a geographically close neighbor, it will be beneficial for the US to assist Cuba during and after a transition of power, to decrease the likelihood of a failed state scenario in Cuba.

US Trade Relations and Sanctions• US Trade Relations and Sanctions

2008 – “The end of a dark era in Cuba’s history.” – ObamaDemocratic Party Platform on US-Cuba Relations• End to a 52 year trade embargo?

US Trade Relations and Sanctions

2009 – Cuban Assets Control and Customs and Border Protection• Purposeful Travel• Remittances• U.S. Airports

Terrorism and Air Security Measures

• State Department Position on Terrorism Listing• 2010 - Air Security Measures

Christmas Day Bombing“Anti-Terrorist Paranoia”

Cuban and Cuban-American Sentiment

• National ReactionHope for DemocracyGenerational Disrupt• Miami, 2008 – “Cuba Sí, Castro No!”

Will the population of Cuban exiles return?

Scrambling for a new way forward• 90% of Cuba's 6 million workers employed by state• 500,000 public employees fired this spring (10%

of workforce)• Raul Castro: unemployed "depend in large part on the

private management and initiative of the individual"

Discussion Questions• Is the contract Cubans had with the revolution

still working?• To what extent do you believe the US should be

able to influence the hoped for democratic change of the Cuban political system?

• Do you believe that the progressive motion of the government in the direction of democracy will be able to maintain its’ forward momentum?

• What are potential repercussions of the relay-race like ascension to power happening in Cuba? Fidel to Raul to ..? Is there opportunity for competition?