Leyendas puertorriquenas por Cayetano Coll y Toste (volumen IV)
The eMLR approach and a sensitivity analysis. Toste Tanhua Arne Körtzinger Karsten Friis Darryn W....
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Transcript of The eMLR approach and a sensitivity analysis. Toste Tanhua Arne Körtzinger Karsten Friis Darryn W....
The eMLR approach and a sensitivity analysis.
Toste Tanhua
Arne Körtzinger
Karsten Friis
Darryn W. Waugh
Douglas W.R. Wallace
extended Multiple Linear Regression
(eMLR)RpapaaDIC nn .....110
This eMLR is based on potential temperaturealkalinitysilicatenitrate
AOU
)(5.0746.0 3NOAlkAOUDICDICbio
Two methods to calculate thedecadal change in DIC
Sensetivity of the eMLR determined with Monte Carlo
analysis
We used the M60/5 dataas the „historic“ data set, and created a „modern“ data set by adding Cant.
To this we added noiseand biases.
Testing the sensetivity of the eMLR
Adding 2 noise temperature 0.005°Calkalinity 4.2 mol kg-1 DIC 1.4 mol kg-1
nitrate 0.2 mol kg-1
silicate 0.2 mol kg-1
AOU 0.6 mol kg-1
Adding bias5 mol kg-1 too high Alk5 mol kg-1 too low AOU5 % too high Si
Same thing for the Western BasineMLR seems to bewater mass sensitive,i.e. ideally one eMLR for each water massshould be done, but this is impractical.
The systematic errors plotted as a section
The eMLR should be performed on the data set with the „best“ data set.
We also introduced a 20 random noise.....
Can we extend the decadal change in Cant to the full anthropogenic period?
Cant is increasing exponentially, i.e. the Transient Steady State assumption is valid.
0
20 )()(),(
c
rctctrc
Small sensitivity to non-exponential growth of Cant, and to different buffer factors for the carbonate system.
Another way of calculating Cant.
The eMLR approach compares well with a tracer based approach.