The Emerging Fertilizer Value Chain in...
Transcript of The Emerging Fertilizer Value Chain in...
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The Emerging Fertilizer Value Chain in Africa: Essential for Commercial Smallholder Agriculture
Pedro A Sanchez
Research Professor of Tropical Soils
Soil & Water Sciences Department
University of Florida
Gainesville, FL
Commercial Agriculture in Tropical Environments
Third International Food Security Symposium
University of Illinois
April 3 2017
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But still full of
poor people
Africa is huge. Sub-Saharan Africa is rich in resources
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There is a link between unhealthy
soils and unhealthy people
PA Sanchez, MS Swaminathan. 2005. The
Lancet 365: 442–44
Chirazuru, Malawi 2002
The Poverty Trap: Poor soils result in low yields and
low household capital. Low household capital prevents
investments in soil nutrients, which is a
primary constraint on soil productivity. CB Barrett, LEM Bevis. 2015. Nature Geoscience 8: 907-912.
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SS Africa 1 16
Latin America 3 48
South & Southeast Asia 3 48
China, South Africa 5 80
N. America, Europe,
Japan
10 160
Sanchez 2015. Nature Plants 1: 1-2.
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Why? There is a major biophysical
reason and a major economic reason
1. Soil fertility depletion is extreme in smallholder
farms in Africa; the key entry point is not improved
varieties or water but replenishing soil nutrients.
Known this for decades*.
2. A broken or nonexistent value chain:
*See new study by Folberth et al, 2013. Agricultural Systems 119: 22-34.
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21st Century African Green Revolution
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AGRA created in 2006 by the Gates and
Rockefeller Foundations
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Tipping points
Better Governance 2006
The Private Sector Moves In
2006AGRA Forum 2012: A Movement
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Private Sector Involvement
2006 +
Overcame allergy from UN and some
governments.
Refined Objective: From small-scale
subsistence farming to farming as a
business.
New Paradigm: Private sector-led,
government-enabled development.
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Strategy
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Two Legs
SEED FERTILIZER
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One Leg
Good Seed No Fertilizer Mwandama, Malawi 2013
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One Leg
Bad Seed with Fertilizer Chaffa Valley, Ethiopia 2003
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Two Legs
Good Seed and Good FertilizerSauri, Kenya 2005
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No Legs
Bad seed, no fertilizerSauri, Kenya 2002
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Seed Systems: Successful value chain
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Fertilizer Value ChainPublic Sector+ donors Private Sector+ financing
1. Databases/Soil Maps ↓
2. Soil Testing/Recommendations ↓
3. Crop response/Field verification ↓
4. Blenders ↓
5. Agrodealers ↓
6. Extension ↓
7. Farmers ↓
8. Feedback↑
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Link 1
Put together databases of soil maps
and fertilizer response trials.
Soil Maps where responses to
individual nutrients are expected.
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0 - 5 cm5 – 15 cm15 – 30 cm
30 – 60 cm
60-100 cm
100-200 cmEffective depth
AfSIS: Digital Map of Soil Properties
Sanchez et al. 2009. Science, 385: 680-681
Digital maps of soil properties are now available but algorithms are needed to correlate the different methodsSpectroscopy cannot yet detect soil test extractions
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Link 2 SoilDoc: A portable lab in a box. Uses batteries, bottled water available all over
Africa and an Android tablet
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Sending results to the cloud
22
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Link 3: Crop Response Trials;
Recommendations
Domain: Agrodealer´ s working areas
(10 – 30 km).
Recommend formulas: 1 - 3 blends
Recommended rates specific for
different crops.
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Link 4: Blending PlantsImport or use local raw materials and blend locally, providing
flexibility
Fertilizer recommendations formulated for specific agrodealer domains.
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Link 5: Agrodealers: Training, Certification, Technical Advice
Agrodealers trained in fertilizers and seeds sell to farmers.
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Link 6:A New Generation of Private Extension Workers
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Link 7: Farmers
Getting the right message on crops,
agronomy, etc.
Up to date, cellphone-based fertilizer
recommendations
Include Biologically Active Carbon
recommendation and ways to eliminate
soil compaction
Farmer associations—warehouse
receipts
Electronic wallet
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Cereal Banks:
doubling prices
Price ksh/90 kg bag:
At farm gate (August 05): 700
Cereal bank sold (April 06): 1450
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Yala Market Center of
Sauri Millennium Village
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No longer growing maizeSauri, Kenya 2015
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Young people get into business
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Link 8: Feedback
Feedback via social media will rate the
fertilizer recommendations, and
performance of individual agrodealers
their farmers and extension workers.
Crop yield data will be estimated from
farmers plus agronomic use efficiency
(kg grain/ kg of nutrient fertilizer
applied), and value to cost ratios.
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Commitment: Increase from 8 to 50kg/ha NPK by 2015
Results: Malawi: 48 kg/ha NPK
Zambia: 43
Mozambique: 10
Peter Crauford and Bernard Vanlauwe - www.fao.org; Nov 2016
Progress
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TimeTime
Fer
tiliz
er u
se (
kgN
PK
/ha)
Mozambique Malawi Zambia
From Peter Crauford and Bernard Vanlauwe - www.fao.org; Nov 2016
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Fertilizer use (kg/ha)
Mai
ze y
ield
(to
n/h
a)
Mozambique Malawi Zambia
From Peter Crauford and Bernard Vanlauwe - www.fao.org; Nov 2016
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2014 :1.55
FA0STAT 2015
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Improve Efficiency
Low agronomic use efficiency: 15 kg grain/kg N;
Must increase agronomic use efficiency to 25 kg
grain/kg N applied.
Cereal yields should reach 3 tons/ha or equivalents.
Good agronomy: planting date, spacing, seed
density, inputs arriving on time, etc.
Move to high-value crops and livestock products.
Climate change adaptation: By increasing yields
from 1 to 3 tons/ha plant transpiration from soil
moisture is doubled or tripled.
Organic fertilizers need financial stimulus
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Climate change is
with us
Glacier coverage on
Mount Kilimanjaro.
Thompson (2010)
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1 ton/ha 3 tons/ha
87% E
Adaptation: Increasing yields in Africa can
improve water use efficiency
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How about Organic Fertilizers?
Tephrosia fallow: a nitrogen factory right in her field
Captures 150 kg
N/ha
Worth $130
Recycles K,
micronutrients
Adds carbon
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Financing N-fixing Inputs. How?
Credits
Subsidies
Rewards?
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The Economist March 12, 2016
“ The farms of Africa are prospering at least thanks to persistence,
technology and decent government”