The Emergence of Middle Class ASEAN.pdf

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The Emergence of the Middle Class in ASEAN CountriesAuthor(s): Helen Hughes and Berhanu WoldekidanSource: ASEAN Economic Bulletin, Vol. 11, No. 2 (NOVEMBER 1994), pp. 139-149Published by: Institute of Southeast Asian Studies (ISEAS)Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/25770536 .Accessed: 01/07/2014 01:30

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ASEAN Economic Bulletin Vol. 11,No. 2

The Emergence of the Middle ClassinASEAN Countries

Helen Hughes and Berhanu Woldekidan

Middle classes are not simply middle income groups, but have cultural, social, political, andeconomic characteristics that make substantial contributions to development. Although

middle classes are difficult to define precisely, it is clear that the middle-class populationincreases exponentially as a proportion of total population with economic growth. Estimates

of the size of themiddle class have been made for theASEAN countries. Taking the growth ofthe middle class into account in national policies can facilitate development in housing,health, education and the environment.

Although themember countries of theAssociation

of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) are disparate in terms of geography and population, the

rapid growth of their middle classes is a commoncharacteristic.

Middle classes are not synonymous with middle income groups. The latter merely represent astatistical entity. In countries such as Indonesiaand Thailand, middle income groups have suchlow incomes that they do not have generally rec

ognized economic middle-class attributes.Middle-class families in these countries have

incomes well above the median and are part of a

relatively small middle and upper incomegroup. As per capita incomes rise, the middleclasses not only grow in absolute terms but alsoin the share of the total population, so that theirincomes overlap with median incomes. Thurow

(1984) categorized households in the UnitedStates with incomes between 75 and 125 per centof median household income as middle class.Lawrence (1984) set the middle-class boundaries

between two-thirds and one and one-third of the

median income. Such measures, however, isolatemiddle income rather than middle-class groups.There is no indication that the middle classesidentified in this way have different behaviouraltraits to lower or higher income groups.

Conceptually the middle class is a relativelyhigh income group with recognizable social,cultural and political as well as economic characteristics. These characteristics evolve over time.

Middle classes play a key role in articulatingcountries' national cultural traits, although theydo not have amonopoly of a nation's culture. TheIndonesian middle class therefore has differentcultural characteristics from, say, Thai or Singapore middle classes. Middle-class objectives andbehavioural patterns do not imply the characteristics of societies of European origin. In each

country middle classes have distinctive nationalcharacteristics, but they also have internationallyoverlapping patterns of behaviour.

Social aspirations lie at the heart of middle

ASEAN Economic Bulletin 139ovember994

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class concerns. Middle-class activists tend to bein the forefront f defining and supporting a coun

try's social relationships and standards. Equalityfor women is a largely middle-class concern andso is the fair treatment of minorities. Extremes of

poverty and wealth are usually alien to middleclass ideals so that emerging middle-class

political power has strong implications for policies that affect the distribution of income andwelfare measures. The middle class is generallyconcerned with the preservation of the environ

ment. Very wealthy people can create their ownenvironment on their own estates, but when

middle-class people demand improved air andwater, it becomes a social issue. For middle-class

people, the streetscape is important. In economic

jargon, the income elasticity of demand for socialand environmental concerns is high. The growthof the middle class inAsia has thus been associated with a growing social and political concernwith welfare and environmental issues.

The income elasticity of demand for the rule oflaw and political democracy also appears to be

high, so that demand for a democratic environment grows more rapidly than incomes.

Participatory democracy with its demand forelected

governmentsand

multiparty systemsis a

largely middle-class phenomenon. The demandfor personal freedoms the freedom to live in alocation of choice, to educate children accordingto parents' values, and the freedom to travelare other examples of rapid increases of demandassociated with the rise of the middle classes.

Young middle-class people?

university students? are often in the forefront of a wide range of

social and political demands. The middle classaffects production and consumption by influenc

ing economic and social policies indirectlythrough pressure groups and ultimately directlythrough parliamentary processes.

In the short termmiddle-class pressures may be

narrowly self-interested. Initially middle-classgroups are often highly protectionist. But aseconomies evolve, middle-class people generallysee that their interests and those of their countriesare better served by more open economic policies.Evolving checks and balances, including the

growth of such working class institutions as tradeunions, make for the political opening of econo

mies and greater social responsibility.The growth of the middle class thus has wide

reaching implications for many aspects of

ASEAN societies. This article, however, is limitedto the economic aspects of the emergence of the

middle class in ASEAN. The concept of amiddle class is first discussed in an economicframe of reference. The size of the middle classin ASEAN is then estimated. The final sectionfocuses on the demand implications of the growthof the middle class inASEAN countries.

What is theMiddle Class?

Since the concept of a middle class has cultural,social and political as well as economic aspects ofbehaviour, it is extremely difficult to define. For

tunately, the economic aspects of middle-classbehaviour appear to have greater internationalsimilarities than cultural, social or political traits,so that some attempt can be made to identify and

quantify the middle class in broad economicterms. The ensuing estimates are inevitably veryrough. Ultimately only surveys that can elicitattitudinal

responsesas well as

objectivecharac

teristics can provide relatively unambiguousestimates of middle-class numbers.

In economic behaviour (consumption, saving,

production, investment) middle-class economiccharacteristics are associated with the assumptions about economic man that have beenessential to the formulation of economics as asocial science. The middle classes tend tomaxi

mize their personal utility in consumption and tomaximize profits in production. But their actions

are not solely activated by personal (family)considerations. They recognize social obligations.Where externalities (including environmentaloutcomes and income distribution issues) are

present, the individual economics of the invisiblehand are tempered by recourse to public economics. Rational economic behaviour is also a key

middle-class trait. The demographic transitionfrom high mortality to low fertility is thus generally led by themiddle class. Children cease to be




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foreign countries, they travel abroad, and theyemigrate to high income countries. The braindrain from countries such as the Philippinesreflects the growing numbers of middle-class

people who have the education, incomes and

social sophistication to enable family members tomove from low to high income countries. Theyoften maintain homes in both countries. When thestate subsidizes the education that leads to an

ability to emigrate, this is a loss to the economy.Over the emigrants' lifetimes, however, suchlosses are usually offset by remittances to their

country of origin, the opening up of export opportunities from the home country and other benefits.

The brain drain is thus unlikely to detract from a

generally positive impact that the growth of themiddle class has on an economy.

Being middle class is associated with occupational status. People tend to define themselves andothers in terms of the work they do. The middleclass includes entrepreneurs who are the ownersof relatively small and medium manufacturingand service enterprises and a large range of

(professional, technical and management) staff inmedium to large scale businesses. Opportunitiesfor women have expanded inmiddle-class occu

pations.The

consequentformation of families

with two high income earners has had a profoundimpact on consumption patterns.

Sectors such as banking, insurance and other

financial services develop to meet middle-classfinancial requirements as well as productionneeds, and they stimulate middle-class numbers as

they develop. People working in the professions(law, medicine, accounting) and even para professional occupations (nursing, bookkeeping) are

usually considered middle class. As farmers move

from traditional to commercial forms of agriculture, with relatively sophisticated technology andwith relatively large capital inputs, they becomemiddle class.

The middle to upper echelons of public sectorsform important components of the middle class.

As the role of government expands to meetmacroeconomic and microeconomic require

ments, the role of the public sector increases,adding to the numbers of the middle class. In

some countries excessive government interventionin the economy has led to a very rapid increase in

public sector employment. Where public sectorintervention is excessive, leading to overegulatedeconomies, the net social effect may be negative.

The size of the middle class is boosted, but at thecost of economic inefficiency and a skewedincome distribution. A country such as Vietnamthus may have had a relatively large middleclass, but its positive productive effect was verylimited because of the limitations of central

planning. The emergence of an excessive middleclass of officials and employees of public enter

prises acted as a brake on development, and tookincome from low income groups to support the

middle class.The emergence of the middle class cannot be

simply taken to have totally positive effects on

production and productivity, but in most countriesthe increases in skills implied in the growth of the

middle class swamp the negative effects.

Measuring the Size of theMiddle Class

Direct estimates of middle-class numbers usuallycontain major differences of definition and

measurement so thatthey

cannot be used for international comparisons (Rodan 1993).

The principal economic features of the middleclass are generally taken to be personal andhousehold income, education (human capital),occupational status and consumption patterns, andthese should form the basis of measurement.

Translating these criteria into hard data is unfortunately very difficult. Attempts to work around

median incomes result in estimates of middleincome, not middle-class groups. Because of

differences of price relatives, particularly in areassuch as housing, patterns of minimum middleclass incomes did not emerge even when

purchasing parity data was used. An income

approach to identifying middle classes was therefore abandoned.

Education data also proved unproductive in

identifying middle classes because educationalattainments in Southeast Asia are changing veryrapidly. Secondary education did not prove to be




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a useful guide. Taking tertiary graduates as

proxies for the middle class would exclude

significant middle-class groups. Temporal definitions of middle class, such as having twosuccessive generations of tertiary education,

would be even more exclusive.The two indicators that show the most promise

are occupational data and consumption patterns.

Occupational Data

A first approximation of the size of the middleclass is based on occupational classifications.

Although occupational data are available, theyhave to be adapted to be useful. Differences ofstatistical definitions among countries add to thedifficulties of using these sets of data. Nevertheless, they provide some useful insights.

Table 1 shows the growing importance of professional and administrative, and clerical salesand service employees for the 1980s for the

ASEAN countries, which had comparable data.The professional and administrative, and

clerical, sales and service groups have beenadded together as a proxy for middle-classnumbers. The clerical, sales and service group is

likely substantiallyto overstate the number of

people with middle-class characteristics, particularly in low income countries, by including low

level clerks, salespeople and ancillary workerssuch as janitors. Some of this overstatement is

likely to be offset by the inclusion of middleclass people in agriculture and particularly in the

production and transport categories. Employment

was adjusted to create a total population base byusing household size, and this would have led tosome overestimation of middle-class numbers and

proportions because households may have morethan one middle-class salary earner.

Occupationally based data can only be used as

very rough indicators. The absolute numbers andshares of the occupational categories grew withrates of economic growth, but seemed too high for

most countries as proxies for middle-class

populations. The inclusion of non-middle-class

occupations in the categories used, as well as theswollen numbers in these occupations in the

public sector apparently inflated the figures.

Consumption Data

Patterns of consumption by income groups, the

ownership of consumer durables and of housing,appeared to be possible databases for identifyingthe size of the middle class. While consumptiondata showed the

expecteddeclines in shares of

food consumption and rises in the share of the

consumption of goods and services with increases

TABLE 1Employment by Occupation, 1980 and 1989

Percentage of Total Employment

Total Professional Clerical, Production

Employment and Sales andnd(Millions) Administration Services Agriculture Transport

1980 1989 1980 1989 1980 1989 1980 1989 1980 1989

Malaysia 4.8

Philippines 17.2

Singapore 1.1Thailand 22.5

6.4 9 1021.9 7 7

1.3 14 2030.6 4 5

27 32 3623 27 5140 40 213 14 71

29 29 2944 19 21

1 39 3567 13 14

SOURCE:International abour Office, Yearbook of Labour Statistics 1989-90 (1991).

ASEAN Economic Bulletin 143 November 1994



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TABLE 2The Share of Employment inMiddle Class Occupations, 1980 and 1989

Professional, Administrative Number ofMiddleClerical, Sales and Services Class Peoplea

Share inTotal Employment (%)1980 1989 1989

Malaysia 36 423

Philippines 30 342Singapore 54 60Thailand 17 197

aAssuming each employee is a head of a household, total middle-class population

was obtained by using household size.SOURCE: International Labour Office, Yearbook of Labour Statistics, 1989-90

(1991).

in household income, it proved impossible toestablish internationally meaningful income cutoff points for such consumption patterns. Housingdata proved to be too fragmented to be inter

nationally comparable. Private housing has beenso neglected in many developing countries that

many middle-class people have inadequatehousing. The most promising data for the identification of a middle class seemed to be consumerdurable ownership.

Radio ownership is so widespread in the

ASEAN member countries, even in relatively lowincome countries with poor electrical services inthe countryside, that it cannot be regarded as anindicator of middle incomes and lifestyles (Table3). The ownership of televisions is even more

dependent on access to power, and televisions aremore expensive than radios. Because of its entertainment value, television ownership is also high,but it is closely correlated with the ownership ofother consumer durables in all ASEAN countries.Television antennae are often seen above what

TABLE3Percentage of Households with Radio and Television, 1988

Number of Percentage of Percentage ofPopulation Households Average Households Households

(Millions) (Millions) HouseholdSize with TV withRadio

Indonesia3 175.6 39.0 4.58.2 66.2

Malaysia6.9 3.6 4.74.4 202.8

Philippines 58.7 10.3 5.71.4 77.7

Singapore 2.7 0.7 3.8 92.0 110.0Thailand3 51.6 11.9 4.67.2 80.6

aTelevision ownership for Indonesia and Thailand is understated compared with national sources.SOURCE:United Nations, Statistical Yearbook: Thirty eventh ssue 1988/89 (1992).




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appear to be slum houses. Housing constraints insome countries mean that such dwellings may beoccupied by middle-class families, but they alsoindicate that the demand for television cannot betaken as a proxy for themiddle class.

Tables 4 and 5 show the evolution of motor carand telephone ownership in ASEAN countries.Cars are clearly amuch more major consumptionitem than television sets. In low income developing countries their ownership is limited to upper

middle-class and wealthy income groups. Government policy as well as incomes affect market

penetration. In Singapore licensing policies aswell as density and excellent public transportlimit private motor vehicle ownership. The middleclass is thus likely to be larger than motor car

ownership suggests.Telephone data include commercial telephone

lines and are thus not as useful indicators ofhousehold characteristics as the other figures.

Among the internationally available indicators

of consumption patterns, television ownershipseems the best single proxy for middle-classstatus (Table 3) in its own right and because of itsclose linkage to other consumer durables. But thiswould make Singapore as well as Hong Kong andTaiwan predominantly middle-class economies,and this is clearly unrealistic. A television proxywould also overstate the size of the middle classin the other ASEAN countries.

The analysis of consumer durable markets ledto some interesting insights. Market penetration

TABLE 4Passenger Motor Vehicle Ownership

Number ofMotor Motor VehicleVehicles ('000) per 1,000 of Population

1980 1989 1980 1989

Indonesia 640

Malaysia862

Philippines 466

Singapore 165Thailand 410

1,182 4.3 6.71,689 62.0 97.6

413 9.5 6.769.8

1,000 8.8 18.1

SOURCE:United Nations, Statistical Yearbook: Thirty eventh ssue 1988/89 (1992).

TABLE5Telephone Lines in Use Per Thousand Inhabitants

Number of Telephone Lines inUse ('000) Telephone Line Use Per 1,000 of Population1980 1985 1987 1988 1980 1985 1987 1988

Indonesia 513 796 890 938 0.4 0.5.5 0.5

Malaysia 598 12,279 1,501 1,646 5 8 90Philippines 702 820

-994 1.5 1.5 -1.7

Singapore 702 1,074 1,164 1,220 29 4246Thailand 497 755 1,200 1 2

SOURCE:United Nations, Statistical Yearbook: Thirty eventh ssue 1988/89 (1992).




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takes the form of S-shaped exponential curves. Asthe best data were available for televisions,pooled data for Asian countries for 1988 and 1989were used to estimate a relationship betweenincome levels and television ownership. In 1988

prices, at very low level of per capita income,below US$400, television ownership was flatand increased slowly as per capita incomes roseto US$800. Television ownership then rose at a

very rapid rate to a per capita income level ofUS$6,300. The rate of increase then flattenedas television ownership approached marketsaturation.

The growth of the middle class appears tofollow a similar pattern. At low per capita incomelevels, middle-class numbers and the percentageof the middle class in the total population is verylow, probably below 5 per cent. The rate of

middle-class formation then begins to rise, andtowards a per capita income of US$1,000 the riseaccelerates until per capita income reaches

US$,7000 or so.When some 50 per cent of thepopulation have become middle class the rate ofincrease of middle-class numbers then moves

very slowly. At this point many non-middle-class

people have what are generally regarded asmiddle-class

consumption patterns,and

manymiddle-class traits become pervasive, but it wouldtake all meaning from the middle-class concept to

call a whole country middle class. Other groupsin society, notably blue collar workers and smallfarmers, retain distinct characteristics. Table 6estimates the size of themiddle class along theselines.

The estimates of some 31 million middle-classpeople in ASEAN countries fell considerablybelow that of the population able to afford consumer durables, notably television sets. Iftelevision ownership is regarded as a guide to thesize of the market for sophisticated consumptiongoods, then the ASEAN affluent market consists of about 80 million people (based on Table3), that is more than twice the size of the middleclass. The demand for sophisticated goods runswell ahead of middle-class formation.

The Consumption Implications

As markets for increasingly sophisticated goodsand services expand, competitive productionopportunities grow in the domestic market and forexports. Increasing economies of scale are created

in production so that costs and prices fall.

Although the share of food in consumptiondeclines, absolute amounts of food purchased per

familyincrease and the food mix becomes more

varied and of higher quality, with processed food

taking a greater share in the basket of food

TABLE6Estimated Size and Share ofMiddle Classes inASEAN Countries, 1988

Estimated Middle Classes

Population Number Share of Population

(Millions) (Millions) (Percentage)Indonesia 175.6 14.0

Malaysia 16.9 2.55Philippines 58.7 7.02

Singapore 2.7 1.40Thailand 51.6 6.22

SOURCES: Population data are from the International Economic Data Bank, the Australian National University. The middle-class estimates are the authors'.




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purchased. Growing refrigerator wnership makes

higher quality food consumption possible.Purchases of clothing similarly increase per

person although clothing purchases decline as ashare of total income, and become more complex

with a greater reliance on made-up clothing and aconsequent shift of clothing production from thehome and small artisans to factories. Economiesof scale mean greater productivity and falling unitcosts for clothing of given quality.

The production of consumer durables is usuallyregarded as an important component of importsubstitution (defined in terms of total market

expansion). Where such import substitution is

highly protected that the industries are inefficientwith the prices of goods above world prices, the

growth of the market is curtailed as are employment opportunities for the middle classes and forthe economy as a whole. As noted, themarket forconsumer durables grows particularly rapidly.

Retail and Wholesale Trade

Changing household consumption trends stimulate and transform retail trade. Clusters of

department stores and supermarkets grow in cen

tral business districts and in suburban locations.Less spectacularly, retail outlets throughout urbanareas become diversified with some trendstowards specialized services and some towards

department and supermarket type structures.Services such as electronic repairs multiply. Thewholesale and importing structures become more

complex and grow in volume. Complementaryservices such as market research and advertisingdevelop. All this stimulates the formation of the

middle class and overall employment and growth.

Banking and Financial Services

Rising savings lead to the diversification of consumer oriented financial services that complementthe evolution of capital markets for business.

Branch commercial banking, specialized banking,consumer durable finance and stockbrokinggrow. Personal financial services funnel savingsinto business investment and thus stimulate the

economy and contribute to the growth of middleclass occupations.

Housing

Middle-class growth has important implicationsfor housing. The market for housing tends to be

more underdeveloped in most developing countries than other markets because land availabilityis limited and often closely held by large owners,because public utilities are not available and because financial markets are underdeveloped. Butonce a country has a sizeable middle class,national policies can create the conditions inwhich a private market for middle-class housingcan grow rapidly, leaving public resources for

appropriate housing solutions for low incomegroups.

ASEAN member countries are the leadersamong developing countries in the provision of

housing. Although Singapore may have attemptedexcessive intervention in the public sector in thename of efficiency and welfare, channelling asubstantial portion of the middle class into publichousing, its housing programme, together with

Hong Kong's, is recognized as a world leader. In

other countries, notably Malaysiaand

Thailand,the private sector has been able to cater formiddle-class housing effectively. Housing construction adds appreciably to skill formation,stimulates savings and investment, makes amajorcontribution to the growth of construction andconstruction materials industries and to entrepreneurial opportunities in those industries, and thusaccelerates in gross domestic product (GDP)growth (though the nature of housing use statistics usually damps down this effect).

The creation of an efficient market for housingrequires the economic provision of public utilities

(electricity, gas, water and sewerage) and publictransport t recoverable cost, so that the provisionof public goods is not subsidized for, and skewedtowards, the urban middle income classes.

Housing makes considerable demands on thefinancial sector. In an unrepressed financial system, private banks and life insurance companiesare generally able to provide mortgage financing




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more efficiently than specialized governmentinstitutions. They are also less likely to overshootand undershoot demand than government entities.

Middle-class housing has to be affordable, in

keeping with a country's overall economic condi

tions. But housing standards rise with economicgrowth. Middle-class families upgrade their hous

ing as their incomes rise, often vacating relativelylow cost, depreciated housing.

Education and Health

While governments must take responsibility for

providing basic health and education for thewhole population, presently themiddle classes aresubsidized at the cost of lower income groups as

they take disproportionate advantage of qualitysecondary and tertiary ducation and sophisticatedhospital services. The emergence of amiddle classcreates opportunities for non-subsidized access tothese services for those who can afford to paythem.

The introduction of fees in tertiary ducationalinstitutions, offset by scholarships and means test

ing schemes, is becoming more acceptable.Private universities have long been established insome countries

(the Philippines),and

privatesec

ondary education is not only common in countriessuch as the Philippines but it is beginning toemerge in formerly centrally-planned economies.

Study abroad at undergraduate and graduatelevels is only partially funded by scholarships(including aid donor funded scholarships). Thestudents are largely from middle-class familiesbenefiting from the present skewing of freepublic secondary education towards the middleclasses. The combination of greater accountability

in public expenditures and middle-class pressuresfor quality in health and education are growing,creating opportunities for the emergence ofprivate markets in these areas.

Health departments are not noted for their efficiency and their funds are perpetually insufficientto meet their objectives. The encouragement of

cost recovery combined with private health insurance schemes is developing in the health sector.

The Environment

Environmental products clean air, clean water,parks and gardens, the preservation of bio

diversity and natural beauty? are middle-class

goods. Many of these goods require public intervention to ensure that their costs are taken

properly into account in pricing goods and services directly, or where externalities are large,through taxes or other measures. Singapore's

management of its transport system, combiningthe taxation of private vehicles with the provisionof public transport, illustrates the policy optionsopen to an essentially middle-class society. Theemergence of a middle class is important forenvironmental issues not only because middleclass people have a greater demand, and theresources to pay, for better environmental outcomes ? sometimes cross subsidizing lowerincome groups in this instance but also because

middle classes have the political organization andwill to make their rising demand effective andso push public policy in environmentally sounddirections.

Conclusion

The concept of the middle class does not lenditself to precise definition and estimating middleclass numbers is even more difficult. Although itcannot be clearly defined and estimated, this doesnot mean that the middle class does not exist. It

may be called by other names and estimated dif

ferently, but in both production and consumption

it is playing an increasing role in countries. Theprincipal objectives of growth are closely relatedto enabling a large proportion of the population to

enjoy middle-class living standards. The more

prosperous an economy, the larger the middleclass, and the larger the middle class, the more

prosperous the economy.




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NOTE

The authors are grateful for the assistance of the Asian Development Bank, for whom this article was initiallyprepared.

REFERENCES

Bagguly, P. The Middle Class and Emergence of New Social-Movements . Sociological Review 40, no. 1 (1992):26-48.

Bautista, R.M. Development Policy in East Asia: Economic Growth and Poverty Alleviation. Singapore: ASEANEconomic Research Unit, Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, 1992.

Indonesia, Biro Pusat Statistik. Cost of Living Survey. Jakarta: Biro Pusat Statistik, 1989.-. Expenditure for Consumption of Indonesia. Jakarta: Biro Pusat Statistik, 1990.

Lawrence, R. Sectoral Shifts and the Size of the Middle Class . The Brookings Review (1984): 3-11.

Philippines, Republic of, Statistics Office. Family Income and Expenditure Survey.Manila: Statistics Office, 1988.-. Family Income and Expenditure Survey. Integrated Survey of Households. Manila: Statistics Office, 1988.

Rodan, G. The Growth of Singapore's Middle Class and its Political Significance . In Singapore Changes Guard,edited by G. Rodan. New York: Longman Cheshire and St Martin's Press, 1993.

Thailand, Office of the National Income and Social Development Bureau. National Income of Thailand. Bangkok:Office of the National Income and Social Development Bureau, 1992.

Thurow, L. The Disappearance of the Middle Class . New York Times, 5 February 1984, p. F3.United Nations. Statistical Yearbook: Thirty-Seventh Issue 1988/89. New York: United Nations, 1993.

-. Report on the World Social Situation. New York: United Nations, 1993.

Helen Hughes is Emeritus Professor of the Australian National University and Professorial Fellow at the BusinessCentre of the University of Melbourne. Berhanu Woldekidan teaches economics at the University of Papua NewGuinea.


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