The effects of local climate on Caretta caretta hatchling ......Caretta caretta hatchling output...
Transcript of The effects of local climate on Caretta caretta hatchling ......Caretta caretta hatchling output...
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The effects of local climate on Caretta caretta
hatchling output
Natalie Montero, Mariana M.P.B. Fuentes
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Thank you to all involved!
This project was funded by the Sea Turtle License Plate Grants Program (17-015R) and the Winchester Fund at FSU.
Permits: • #TP-16-239• ACUC #1534• DRP-046
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Influences of climate on sea turtles
• Successful incubation at a narrow thermal range
• Precipitation, humidity, SST• Different tolerances • Sex ratio • Hatchling viability and population
stability
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Proposal vs. Reality
• What was proposed:• Determine relationship between local climate, hatchling output, and
incubating environment via existing and new weather stations, iButtontemperature loggers, nest location on the beach, and sand samples.
• Identify most significant climate variable(s)
• What was the result:• Coyotes (62%) and storms (25%) at one study site in 2017• Use historical climate and nest data at both study sites to identify the most
significant climate variable(s) and/or combination of variables
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Objectives
• Determine how local climate influences hatchling output for the NGM loggerhead Recovery Unit
• Project how predicted changes in climate will influence future hatchling output
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Hatchling Output
Hatching Success: number of hatched eggs and
number of unhatched eggs
Emergence Rate: number of hatchlings that emerged
and number of hatchlings left in nest
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Study Sites
St. Joseph Peninsula (SJP) and St. George Island (SGI) State Parks, Florida
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Nest Data
• Florida Fish & Wildlife Research Institute oSGI = 138 (2013 – 2017)oSJP = 209 (2013 – 2016) oTotal = 347
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Climate DataClimate Variable SGI source SJP sourceAir Temperature (℃)
SGI State Park Weather StationApalachicola Municipal Airport
Accumulated Precipitation (mm)
Wind Speed (m/s)
Humidity (%) Apalachicola Municipal Airport
Sea Surface Temperature (℃)
MERRA – 2 MERRA – 2
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Projection Data
• KNMI Climate Explorer
• CMIP5 RCP 8.5 & RCP 4.5
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Analysis• Generalized Linear Mixed – Effects Models (lme4)• Corrected Akaike Information Criterion (AICc)
MARCH APRIL MAY JUNE JULY2 Months Prior
Nest Month + 2 Months PriorNest Month + 1 Month Prior
Nest MonthIncubation Duration
Hatch Month
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Average Hatchling Output
• SJP: (209 nests)• Hatching success: 87.3%• Emergence rate: 84.9%
• SGI: (126 nests)• Hatching success: 80.8%• Emergence rate: 76.6%
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Effects of Climate at SJP
Emer
genc
e R
ate
Humidity during Incubation (%)
Hat
chin
g Su
cces
s
Air Temperature during Incubation
(℃)
Accumulated Rain during Nest Month
(mm)
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Effects of Climate at SGI
Air Temperature during Incubation
(℃)
Accumulated Rain during Nest Month
(mm)Humidity during Incubation (%)
Emer
genc
e R
ate
Hat
chin
g Su
cces
s
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Climate Projections at SJP
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Climate Projections at SGI
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Hatching Success Projections
SJP
SGI
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Other Factors
• Beach erosion• Sea level rise• More severe and frequent storms• What are turtles’ thresholds?• Changes in sea turtle response• Temperate beaches