The Effectiveness of Minor Powers’ Hedging...
Transcript of The Effectiveness of Minor Powers’ Hedging...
The Effectiveness of Minor Powers’ Hedging Strategy:
Comparing Singapore and the Philippines*
Ryan Yu-Lin Liou**1
Philip Szue-Chin Hsu***
Abstract
Many Southeast Asian countries are known to employ hedging strategies toward
an emerging new regional order. We explore hedging and other strategic concepts, and
how effective minor powers’ hedging are. Prior research suggests that lesser powers in
Southeast Asia will benefit more by hedging, but little empirical evidence has been
offered to support this claim. By underestimating the influence of domestic actors and
territorial dispute, the hedging thesis might overestimate the effectiveness of hedging
and find no variation among Southeast Asian states. Singapore and the Philippines
serve as two cases to examine and compare the effectiveness of minor powers’
hedging. We find that Singapore and the Philippines both have acquired economic and
security benefits from China and the United States. However, because the Philippines
has the South China Sea dispute and domestic constraints, it is less successful than
Singapore in advancing security relations with China.
* Please do not cite this draft without the authors’ permission. ** PhD student, the Political Science and International Affairs Program, University of Georgia, USA.
[email protected] *** Professor and Department Chair, Department of Political Science, National Taiwan University,
Taiwan. [email protected]
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Introduction
Since the mid-1990s, there has been considerable research exploring China’s
rise and how Southeast Asian (SEA) countries respond to the emerging regional order,
an order which is now shaped mainly by China and the United States. Nevertheless,
debate continues regarding SEA states’ strategies toward China and the United States.
In the shadow of China’s growing military and economic power, several SEA
countries try to keep relations open with major powers in this region. For example,
while Vietnam is China’s “friend,” it has enhanced its relations with the United States
in recent years. Regarding current discussion on these lesser powers’ strategic
responses, hedging is the most significant topic. Hedging has been considered a
strategy to allow a country to maximize its benefits by avoiding overt commitment to
big powers and choosing sides among these powers (Acharya 2003; Ciorciari 2010;
Goh 2005; Kuik 2008, 2016; Weitsman 2004, 32). On the one hand, Singapore,
Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, Indonesia, among others, are the widely
recognized as hedgers between China and the United States. On the other hand,
Cambodia and Laos are the prime examples of not adopting hedging due to their
unambiguous alignment with China.
Although hedging is widely recognized as the optimal as well as most popular
strategy in SEA, little is known about: i) what the differences are between the concept
of hedging and other strategic concepts; and ii) how effective SEA countries’ hedging
strategies are. This paper aims to address these questions. Moreover, much
scholarship suggests that SEA countries will benefit more from a hedging strategy, but
little empirical evidence has been offered to support this claim. The question of
whether hedging help countries maximize returns remains unresolved. This paper thus
attempts to examine the relatively underexplored issue, that is, the effectiveness of
minor power’s hedging. Prior research mostly overlooks the effects of domestic
politics, which may account for the variation of hedging’s effectiveness in SEA. By
underestimating the influence of domestic actors, the hedging thesis might
overestimate the effectiveness of hedging and find no variation among hedgers.
Additionally, this paper covers some gaps in much of the literature by examining SEA
countries’ relations with China and the United States on both the economic and
security dimensions.
We make two central claims. First, we contend that overstretching the hedging
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concept will undermine its analytical rigor and make almost every country a hedger.
We clarify hedging as combining different tools, separating issue areas, and
diversifying target states and thus hedging distinguishes itself from the other strategic
concepts, i.e., balancing and bandwagoning. Second, we present evidence indicating
that Singapore and the Philippines have acquired economic and security benefits from
both China and the United States, but there are visible differences in these benefits
between the two countries. These minor powers in Southeast Asia have enhanced
security ties with the United States and obtained economic benefits from China.
However, while many studies claim that a hedger can maximize national interests
from the United States and China, we argue that hedging does not necessarily
translate into these results because domestic politics could constrain the hedging’s
effectiveness. Our findings suggest that although the Philippines has reaped benefits
from China and the United States, its hedging effectiveness was moderated by its
domestic politics and territorial dispute with China. Therefore, we argue that the
Philippines’s hedging is less effective than Singapore’s.
The Debate on SEA Countries’ Responses to the Emerging New Order
There are three main propositions regarding SEA countries’ strategic responses
to the emerging new order shaped by China’s rise. The first proposition is the
balancing viewpoint, which is primarily based on the balance of power theory. It
argues that most SEA countries, especially maritime countries, are balancing or will
balance China by taking advantage of security cooperation with the United States,
because of the lack of trust in China and the influence of geopolitics (Emmers 2003;
Friedberg 2011; Ross 1999, 2006). The second viewpoint on SEA-China relations is
bandwagoning. In contrast to the balancing proposition, the bandwagoning
perspective is partly derived and revised from the hegemonic stability theory. The
bandwagoning viewpoint posits that SEA countries will bandwagon with China and
that China will play a leading role in Asia mainly due to historical experiences
(Tributary System), a huge power asymmetry, shared culture and ideas, and China’s
recent successful policies (Kang 2003a, 2003b, 2007; Womack 2003).
Moving beyond the realist approach adopted by the balancing and the
bandwagoning viewpoint, the third position is the hedging perspective. The hedging
proposition functions as a bridge between the other two arguments, contending that
the dichotomy between balancing and bandwagoning is static, and introducing a more
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dynamic analytic framework that combines indirect balancing, engagement, and
bandwagoning concepts. The hedging viewpoint recognizes the coercive measures
used by many SEA countries in addition to acknowledging the cooperation and
positive aspects of SEA-China relations. For instance, Amitav Acharya refutes the
bandwagoning viewpoint by giving examples of SEA countries’ military
modernization, and by arguing that trade and investment acceleration in Southeast
Asia with China are not a product of strategic bandwagoning but of economic
pragmatism. He further claims that through regional institutions and continuing
dialogues, SEA countries may acquire high-level autonomy and the capacity to
socialize China (Acharya 2003, 2014).
Slightly different from Acharya’s argument, Evelyn Goh considers Southeast
Asia a less active and symmetrical player. Goh’s findings suggest that the United
States is still the dominant power in the region, and thus SEA countries will take
advantage of the public good provided by the United States and preserve the current
hierarchy led by the United States. Goh asserts that SEA countries have deployed the
“enmeshment” strategy to increase the target states’ stakes, especially China’s, in
regional or international order (Goh 2007, 2013). The hedging perspective posits that
SEA countries have two goals: First, to obtain greatest benefits by engaging with
China (e.g., through institutions and economic linkages) as well as through indirectl
balancing (by maintaining close ties with the United States). A second consideration is
to seek more freedom of action by expanding the strategic options (Fiori and Passeri
2015; Khong 2004; Kim 2016; Kuik 2008; Manning and Przystup 1999; McDougall
2012; Medeiros 2005; S. S. Tan 2012) (see Table 1).
Table 1. Debate on SEA Responses to the Emerging New Order
Balancing Bandwagoning Hedging
Analytical
Foundations
Balance of Power
Theory
Revised
Hegemonic
Stability Theory
Balance of Power,
Institutionalist,
Interdependence
Assumption
of Structure Anarchy Hierarchy led by
China
Highly Fluid and
Uncertain
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Balancing Bandwagoning Hedging
Main
Arguments/
Predictions
SEA countries,
especially
maritime
countries, will
balance against
China by
cooperating
with the United
States.
Due to power
asymmetry,
historical and
cultural factors,
SEA states are
willing to live in
a stable
hierarchical
system led by
China.
Because many SEA
countries engage
China with caution,
they maintain
security ties with the
United States and
avoid choosing sides.
In this way, SEA
hedgers can
maximize their
interests.
Overall, while insightful, these three arguments have some limitations. The
balancing viewpoint ignores the “positive-sum game” trend after the Cold War and
places too much emphasis on coercion; thus, it cannot fully explain the SEA
countries’ flexible and diverse responses to China’s rise. The central problem with the
bandwagoning argument is that it is easy to take a county’s cooperation with great
powers as bandwagoning. However, cooperation in economic and political areas does
not mean compromise with China. In addition, policy and strategy are at different
levels; thus, some SEA countries’ compliant policies cannot be considered as a
bandwagoning strategy. The hedging perspective has captured the fluid dynamics of
today’s Asian order by addressing both the cooperative and coercive dimensions and
coping with the US’s security role. Additionally, SEA countries’ moderate defense
spending and military modernization since 2000 support the hedging perspective. We
can also see the Philippines, Singapore, and others are hedging on specifics. Therefore,
the hedging perspective is the most convincing argument within the current debate.
However, while various hedging studies have suggested that those SEA countries
can benefit hugely from hedging strategy, remarkably little empirical research has
tested this claim. Further, there is insufficient research on the differences in the SEA
countries’ relations with China and the United States. Hence, this paper has two aims.
First, to clarify the concept of hedging; and second, to assess the effectiveness of SEA
countries’ hedging by focusing on the cases of Singapore and the Philippines.
Discussion of Lesser Powers’ Strategies
The literature on smaller country’s strategies toward great powers falls into four
types: challenging type, compromising type, cooperative type, and combining type.
The challenging type mainly includes balancing (Walt 1987; Waltz 1979) and soft
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balancing (Nexon 2009, 340–47; Pape 2005; Paul 2005). Their major features are to
use coercive policy tools and to challenge the existing order. In contrast, the main
feature of the compromising type is to concede to great powers in order to avoid
conflicts or to reap greater benefits. This type includes bandwagoning, appeasement,
buck-passing, and accommodation (Christensen and Snyder 1990; Kang 2007;
Mearsheimer 2001, 157–62; Schweller 1994).
As for cooperative strategies, they primarily entail engagement, binding, and
transcending, and their features are employing non-coercive policy tools (e.g.,
multilateral institutions) to overcome the anarchy structure or even shape the great
powers’ preferences (Schroeder 1994, 117; Schweller 1999, 13–15; Schweller and
Priess 1997, 8–9). Hence, while both are non-coercive, cooperative strategies are
more proactive than compromising strategies.
Last, enmeshment and hedging can be categorized as combining because both
strategies employ cooperative instruments and coercive instruments simultaneously
(Ciorciari 2009, 167–69; Goh 2007, 120–27; Khong 2004, 172–92). Although these
two strategies maintain coercion to cope with target countries, they are different from
balancing and soft balancing because they do not intend to challenge the existing
order. Because these four types of strategies have common ground, we simplify our
discussion into three major strategies: balancing, bandwagoning, and hedging in the
later context.
Clarifying the Hedging Concept
Borrowed from the field of finance, hedging is employed to lessen risks and
avoid fluctuations via multiple tools. However, the concept of hedging has been
significantly extended in international relations in recent scholarship, and it seems that
hedging can explain every country’s foreign strategy. In the development stage of
hedging’s analytical framework, scholars have gradually integrated different concepts.
For example, Cheng-Chwee Kuik analyzes SEA countries’ hedging by integrating
indirect-balancing, dominance-denial, economic-pragmatism, binding-engagement,
and limited-bandwagoning. He further contends that these “counteracting” policy
tools help smaller powers reduce risks and increase returns (Kuik 2008, 2013, 2016).
Similarly, Le Hong Hiep examines Vietnam’s strategy toward China by dividing
hedging into four elements—hard balancing, soft balancing, economic pragmatism,
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and direct engagement. Every element also entails multiple policies (Le 2013).
We draw attention to two mediating factors. First, by stretching the scope, the
concept of hedging in most literature is so broad that analytical rigor is undermined.
By integrating almost every relevant strategic element into hedging, such an analysis
becomes “unfalsifiable.” For example, in Kuik’s lines of reasoning, Malaysia is a
hedger even though it adopts limited bandwagoning, engagement, and indirect
balancing (Kuik 2016). If this is the case, however, then Laos and Cambodia would
also be treated as hedgers. This definition does not distinguish hedgers from non-
hedgers.
Second, existing studies consider hedging a mixed strategy of balancing and
bandwagoning. However, the coexistence of cooperation and discord in international
politics is a normal phenomenon. The “counteracting” policies or cooperation cum
conflict do not equate to a hedging strategy. We argue that researchers should avoid
vague definitions of hedging. The combination of policy tools does not necessarily
represent the use of hedging. The requirement of hedging is being able to pass on
risks to others. For example, many SEA countries pass most of their security risks and
burdens to the United States because the latter provides public goods (e.g., freedom of
navigation) and takes on primary responsibilities to keep China in check. Thus, these
minor powers in Southeast Asia can hedge on specifics and avoid primary balancing
burden and war risks. We contend that hedging has three elements. As well as the
combination of policy instruments, there are two other essential components in
hedging: the separation of issue areas and the diversification of targets/partners. We
will illustrate this below.
To address the issues caused by the over-extension of hedging, Lim and Cooper
offer a critical and solid analysis of the hedging concept by redefining hedging as
sending an ambiguous alignment signal to great powers and then they examine four
cases: Japan, Australia, Vietnam, and Singapore. By narrowing the hedging scope to
the security domain, however, their findings unsurprisingly show that the United
States is the SEA states’ top strategic choice. Yet they go too far in excluding the
economic importance in order to maintain focus on traditional security (Lim and
Cooper 2015). By neglecting the economic factors, however, the hedging concept
lacks analytical value in spite of shrinking the scope. The main reason is that
economic consideration is crucial for SEA countries, whose economic performances
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are the foundations of regime stability (Chan 2013). The Asian financial crisis in 1997
provides a clear example of economic factor. Therefore, the economic dimension must
be included so that the hedging framework remains meaningful and useful. This paper
will examine hedging from both security and economic perspectives. We also do not
agree with Lim and Cooper that non-US treaty ally and minor/no security dispute are
the necessary components of hedging states. Like Thailand and the Philippines, while
being the US allies, they still can employ hedging. In the next section, we aim to
clarify hedging by identifying hedging’s implications.
Combination of Policy Tools and Separation of Issue Areas
Most recent scholarship considers hedging to be either an amalgamation of
coercive and cooperative measures or a combination of balancing and bandwagoning.
However, combination does not capture all aspects of hedging. A country that simply
combines different tools cannot be defined as a hedger because, by that loose
definition, almost every country would be a hedger. We argue that there is another
essential element in hedging: the separation of issue-areas. A hedger will attempt to
align with other countries on different issues by taking advantage of the latter’s niches.
Thus, numerous SEA hedgers choose to cooperate with China in the economic realm
but prefer to treat the United States as their security protector. The issue areas of
interaction between SEA and other major countries include traditional security, non-
traditional security, trade, investment, finance, aid, and so on. As for the policy tools
of SEA countries, they range from coercive to cooperative options, including military
modernization; low-intensity coercion (e.g., military exercise with the third party);
limited security collaboration (e.g., Confidence-Building Measures [CBMs]);
financial cooperation; and warm trade and investment linkage. Due to the growing
nature of the non-zero-sum game in Asia, issue areas become more diverse, thus
accommodating multiple actors.
Diversification of Target States
Additionally, hedgers intend to diversify their target states to expand strategic
space. The selection of targets is based on the targets’ strengths and characteristics.
Most SEA countries’ primary targets are the United States and China, while other
countries, such as Japan, the EU, and India, are considered secondarily important. For
SEA economies, China can be their economic engine by promoting trade and
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investment. While China’s economic role has become more central in Southeast Asia,
the United States maintains the indispensable security role in the region (Cha 2010,
2017; Chan 2013, 161–81; Sutter 2010, 53–54). On the other hand, some SEA
mainland countries (i.e., Cambodia, Laos, and Myanmar) principally look to China for
their security and economic resources. As for Thailand, its trade dependence on China
has grown as its dependence on the United States has gradually waned. Moreover,
although Thailand remains as a military ally of the United States, it has started to
increase security exchanges with China. In a similar vein, while Vietnam has close
ties with China, it has significantly improved relations with the United States in recent
years. As for SEA maritime countries, such as Japan, Taiwan, the Philippines,
Singapore, Malaysia, and Indonesia, they still see the United States as playing a vital
security role, while their economies depend more on China.
By building on the existing hedging literature, this article advances a more
rigorous definition of hedging as combining different tools, separating issue areas,
and diversifying target states. Thus, hedging distinguishes itself from other strategic
concepts, i.e., balancing and bandwagoning.
Case Selection
Although the literature employs hedging concept on SEA countries, this paper
focuses on only Singapore and the Philippines. These two countries are selected as the
two “least likely” cases. As Table 2 and Table 3 indicate, they both are the closest
strategic partners of the United States among the SEA maritime countries. It is
believed that if two countries are in different political-military camps, it is less likely
to have close trade linkage between them due to the negative security externality
concern. That is, political-security alignment will influence economic ties (Gowa
1994). Among the SEA countries, Singapore and the Philippines are clearly under the
US security umbrella. Consequently, if Singapore and the Philippines can on the one
hand, maintain close relationship with the United States and even enhance this linkage,
and on the other hand successfully benefit from China and hedge between China and
the United States, we could argue that hedging thesis is more persuasive.
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Table 2. The Sum of China’s/ the US Arms Imports, 2002-2014
Millions of US Dollars
China US
Singapore 0 5028(58.21%)
Malaysia <0.5(0.13%) 114(2.86%)
Indonesia 191(4.18%) 325(7.11%)
Brunei 0 73(15.24%)
the Philippines 0 236(71.95%)
Vietnam 0 0
Thailand 96(5.37%) 472(26.38%)
Myanmar 1097(41.32%) 0
Laos 37(42.05%) 0
Cambodia 114(45.42%) 0
Notes: The numbers in parentheses represent the dependence of arms transfers on the target
countries.
Source: Calculated from SIPRI Arms Transfers Database,
http://armstrade.sipri.org/armstrade/page/values.php.
Table 3. SEA Counties’ Security Linkages with the US
Defense Agreement Military
Deployment Other Commitments
Treaty
Ally
the
Philippines
1951Mutual
Defense Treaty;
1998 Visiting Forces
Agreement; 2002
Mutual Logistics
Support Agreement;
2014 Enhanced
Defense
Cooperation
Agreement
(EDCA)*
Deploy forces to
PH’s bases on a
rotational basis;
Joint Special
Operations Task
Force-
Philippines; P-8
Poseidon Patrol
Aircraft
MNNA; sales on
coastguard cutter and
frigates; assist in
modernizing PH’s
army; assist to enhance
PH’s maritime domain
awareness conduct
patrol in South China
Sea; IMET; intelligence
sharing
Yes
Singapore
2005 Strategic
Framework
Agreement for a
Closer Cooperation
Partnership in
Defense and
Security
Forward
Operating
Sites(FOS); Four
Littoral Combat
Ships*; P-8
Poseidon Patrol
Aircraft**
PSI; MNNA***; help
to upgrade equipment;
military training and
intelligence sharing
Not
formal,
yet
quasi-
ally
Thailand
1954 Manila Pact;
1962 Rusk-Thanat
Communiqué; 2012
Joint Vision
Statement for the
Thai-U.S. Defense
Alliance
N.A. MNNA; IMET;
intelligence sharing Yes
Malaysia N.A. N.A. Assist in advancing
Malaysian maritime No
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Defense Agreement Military
Deployment Other Commitments
Treaty
Ally
domain awareness (e.g.,
offer coastal
surveillance radar
system to Malaysia);
IMET
Indonesia
2005 Framework
Arrangement on
Cooperative
Activities in the
Field of Defense
N.A. IMET No
Brunei N.A. N.A. PSI No
Vietnam N.A. N.A.
Shore up Vietnam’s
maritime security
capacity; transferred 5
patrol vessels and
partially lift arms
embargo; provided
FMF for Vietnam since
2009; IMET; PSI
No
Myanmar N.A. N.A. IMET**** No
Laos N.A. N.A. IMET No
Cambodia N.A. N.A.
Assistance on military
equipment; vehicle
maintenance and
logistical management
training; IMET
No
Note: MNNA: Major non-NATO Ally
FMF: Foreign Military Financing
IMET: International Military Education and Training
PSI: Proliferation Security Initiative
*not yet in force, but the Philippines’ highest court has approved this deal on January 13, 2016.
**in plan
***US designated, but Singapore declined.
****since 2015
Source: Rinehart (2015); Manyin (2014), Chanlett-Avery et al. (2015), Vaughn (2011); Lum (2013),
U.S. Department of Defense (n.d.).
Assessment of Hedging’s Effectiveness
For SEA countries, the implications and niches of the United States and China
are different. While the United States is their security protector, China is their
economic driver, as shown in Table 4.
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Table 4. SEA Countries’ Hedging Objectives
Toward
US
Security: a. enhancing strategic ties to avoid being abandoned
b. promoting autonomy to avoid being entrapped
Economy: US’s provision of trade surplus, investment, and crucial
skills, etc.
Toward
China
Security: a. socializing China to reduce the risk of revisionist China
b. improving relations to avoid conflict and make peace
Economy: China’s provision of export market, supply chain, soft loans
and grants, etc.
We evaluate the effectiveness of Singapore’s and the Philippines’ hedging
strategy from two aspects: economy and security. On the one hand, we analyze the
two countries’ trade, investment, and economic arrangements with the US and China.
On the other hand, in terms of security, we examine the security relationships between
the two countries and the US as well as China.
In economic realm, the primary indicator on testing SEA hedgers’ efficacy is
acquiring economic benefits from China. In addition, SEA hedgers’ secondary
objective in the economic realm is to maintain economic interests from the United
States. From China, SEA countries focus more on export interests; while from the
United States, they center more on trade surplus and investments.
In security area, SEA hedgers’ primary objective to strengthen security ties with
the United States. SEA hedgers’ secondary objective in the security realm is to
improve security relations with China and to enmesh China (see Table 5).
Table 5. The Indicators of Hedging’s Effectiveness
Dimensions Indicators
Economy
Primary:
Acquiring economic benefits from China
Secondary:
Maintaining economic interests from the US
Security
Primary:
Strengthening security ties with the US
Secondary:
Improving security relations with China and enmeshing China
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Acquiring Economic Benefits from China and Maintaining Economic Interests from
the United States
From Table 6 and Table 7, we can see the trend indicates both Singapore and the
Philippines are increasingly dependent on China’s market and less reliant on the US
market. From 1995 to 2014, Singapore’s export dependence on China grew steadily
from 2.3% to 12.6%, at an increase of nearly 6 times. On the other hand, Singapore’s
reliance on the United States declined from 18.3% to 5.9%. Like many SEA states,
Singapore’s export dependence on China has surpassed their dependence on the
United States. As for the Philippines, the share of exports to China in its world exports
climbed from 1.2% to 13.0% from 1995 to 2014, whereas meanwhile its share of
exports to the United States dropped from 35.8% to 14.1%. These numbers suggest
that Singapore and the Philippines have increasingly shifted their major trade focuses
from the United States to China.
In terms of foreign direct investment (FDI), the Unites States remains a key
provider to Singapore and the Philippines, and Thailand in 2012. On the other hand,
China plays a much less important role than the United States in these two hedgers’
FDI sources (see Table 8).
Finally, as shown in Table 9, both Singapore and the Philippines have
successfully made several economic arrangements with China and the United States.
Singapore concluded China-Singapore Free Trade Agreement (CSFTA), US-
Singapore Free Trade Agreement (USSFTA), and Bilateral Investment Treaty (BIT)
between Singapore and the US. The Philippines, on the other hand, has fewer
economic deals with the great powers than Singapore. It singed BIT and Trade and
Investment Framework Agreement (TIFA) with the US, and joined the US
Generalized System of Preferences (GSP). Additionally, both Singapore and the
Philippines joined China-ASEAN Free Trade Agreement (CAFTA) and Chiang Mai
Initiative Multilateralization (CMIM), and they are the founding members of the
Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) led by China, and the negotiation
partners of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP). Singapore
also inked the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) (AIIB n.d.; Chalongphob Sussangkarn
2010; International Enterprise Singapore n.d.; UNCTAD n.d.; USTR n.d.).1
The developments above show that Singapore and the Philippines have been
1 RCEP is under negotiation and expected to be finished in 2016; TPP signed on February 3, 2016.
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incorporated more deeply with China and the United Sates, and have acquired more
economic benefits from trade, investment, and important economic deals. Moreover,
the combination of high levels of trade flow, FDI stocks, the integration of production
networks, and economic arrangements between Singapore and the Philippines with
China and the United States may also result in some positive political/security effects
on bilateral relations (Chan 2013; Gartzke, Li, and Boehmer 2001; Mansfield and
Pevehouse 2000; Maoz 2009; Pang 2007). As long as China maintains policies of
reassurance rather than taking a revisionist route, and the United States maintains a
pivot-to-Asia policy, Singapore and the Philippines would continue to take advantage
of the thriving Chinese economy and a stronger US commitment.
Table 6. Share of Exports to China (%)
1995 2000 2005 2010 2014
Singapore 2.33 3.42 8.61 10.36 12.55
the
Philippines 1.20 1.74 9.89 11.09 12.98
Source: Calculated from International Monetary Fund (IMF), Direction of Trade Statistics CD-ROM,
December 2015.
Table 7. Share of Exports to the US (%)
1995 2000 2005 2010 2014
Singapore 18.25 17.31 10.41 6.53 5.91
the
Philippines 35.77 29.85 18.02 14.72 14.13
Source: Calculated from IMF, Direction of Trade Statistics.
Table 8. 2012 FDI Stock from China/the United States
Millions of US Dollars
China US
Singapore 11,646
(7)
87,834
(2)
the Philippines 301
(6)
7,646
(1)
Note: The number in parentheses denotes rank among SEA countries; China’s data do not include
Hong Kong and Macau.
Source: Calculated from United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD)
FDI/TNC database, “Bilateral FDI Statistics,”
http://unctad.org/en/Pages/DIAE/FDI%20Statistics/FDI-Statistics-Bilateral.aspx.
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Table 9. Important Economic Arrangements with China/the US
China US
Singapore CAFTA; CSFTA; BIT; CMIM;
AIIB USSFTA; (TPP)
the Philippines CAFTA; BIT; CMIM; AIIB TIFA; GSP
Note: All included signed agreements and agreements in force.
Strengthening Security Ties with the US
Both Singapore and the Philippines have embraced the US security commitment,
public goods (e.g., conducting freedom of navigation operations and maintaining
stability in the region), defense cooperation (e.g., military exercises, military training,
and intelligence sharing), arms transfers, military deployment, and other assistances
(e.g., US Foreign Military Financing).
While the relationship between the Philippines and China has been worsen due to
the dispute in South China Sea, the relationship between the Philippines and the US
has been enhanced. The US has provided the Philippines with three Hamilton-Class
Coast Guard Cutters through its Excess Defense Articles (EDA) in order to improve
the maritime combat capacity of the Philippines. For example, the US has transferred
BRP Gregorio del Pilar and BRP Ramon Alcaraz as well as twelve used F-16 aircrafts
to the Philippines. Moreover, Robert Willard, the then Commander of US Pacific
Command, said that the US would like to expand the presence in Southeast Asia and
proposed to deploy more reconnaissance planes and Littoral Combat Ships (LaGrone
2013; Yap 2011).
In terms of the military modernization, the US has offered the Philippine Coast
Guard training and telecommunication equipment, strengthened its maritime domain
awareness, and enhanced intelligence sharing and interoperability between the US
forces and the Philippines forces. In addition, the US also helped the Philippines
establish National Coast Watch Center. All the efforts are conducive to Philippine
maritime safety and deterrence capability against China in the South China Sea
(Agence France-Presse 2011; De Castro 2011, 249; Manila Bulletin 2013; Philippine
Daily Inquirer 2012; Simon 2012). In 2014, the US and the Philippines even inked a
milestone agreement: Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA), further
expanding US military presence in the Philippines, such as rotational deployments in
Philippine bases (Thayer 2014; U.S. Embassy in the Philippines 2014).
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In 2005, Singapore and the US signed Strategic Framework Agreement for a
Closer Cooperation Partnership in Defense and Security (SFA). This agreement is
significant for advancing Singapore-US security relations. Through SFA, these two
countries have fostered cooperation on anti-terrorism, nonproliferation, joint exercise
and training, intelligence sharing, and defense technology. Moreover, the US has
deployed four Littoral Combat Ships in Singaporean waters, including USS Freedom,
USS Independence, USS Fort Worth, and USS Coronado. Singapore has become the
fulcrum of US’s forward deployment in Asia-Pacific (Bitzinger 2011; Huxley 2013).
Additionally, Singapore and the US have conducted a wealth of joint military
exercises, Southeast Asia Cooperation against Terrorism (SEACAT), Cobra Gold,
Exercise Commando Sling, Cooperation Afloat Readiness and Training (CARAT),
and Rim of the Pacific (RIMPAC) (see Table 9).
Improving Security Relations with China and Enmeshing China
The bright side of Singapore’s and the Philippines’s relations with China is that
they have improved security relations with China via a series of CBMs, including
annual security consultation, regular joint exercises, or other military exchanges (see
Table 10 and Table 11). Meanwhile, these hedging acts do not harm the US-
Singapore relations and the US- Philippines relations. In addition, both China and the
United States signed ASEAN Treaty of Amity and Cooperation (TAC).
However, there are some limitations in Singapore’s and the Philippines’s
relations with China and the United States. These limits are mainly due to
asymmetrical capability, the feature of ASEAN soft institutionalism2, and domestic
politics. Even though a wealth of official statements and initiatives has been issued by
China, they often lack substance. Moreover, the Philippines does not bind China via
institutions and norms as much as the hedging perspective predicts. The South China
Sea issue is a hard test. Although China signed the Declaration on the Conduct of
Parties in the South China Sea (DOC) in 2002, a political document without legal
binding, DOC neither establishes verification and punishment mechanisms, nor copes
with thorny issues, such as resources development and conflict resolution (Storey
2011, 144–50). Additionally, because China is afraid of SEA countries forming a
united front and having greater bargaining power, it prefers bilateralism rather than a
2 For ASEAN soft institutionalism, see Amitav Acharya (2002); Khong and Nesadurai (2007).
17
binding multilateral approach to addressing the South China Sea issue. Thus, the Code
of Conduct in the South China Sea (COC) delays progress. Hedging has not greatly
improved the Philippines-China relations as hedging perspective widely predicts.
Furthermore, despite ASEAN being the key driver and agenda-setter in the
regional institutional building as many scholars argue (Jones 2010; Kim 2012; Stubbs
2014), the soft institutionalism practiced by SEA states may make ASEAN Regional
Forum (ARF), ASEAN Defense Ministers Meeting-Plus 8 (ADMM+8), and other
ASEAN-driven mechanisms fail to reach a consensus, bind great powers, and manage
conflict in the foreseeable future (Goh 2011, 373–401; Jones and Jenne 2016; Jones
and Smith 2007, 144–69). Meanwhile, in responding to US rebalancing and active
involvement in the South China Sea in recent years, China has become more assertive
in continuing to develop anti-access/area-denial (A2/D2), and even claiming the
South China Sea issue belongs to China’s “core interest” as well as to the core
interests of Tibet and Taiwan (Krepinevich 2009, 22–23; Storey 2011, 78–96; Wong
2011).
Tensions have grown between China and the Philippines in the South China Sea
in recent years. While close economic linkages are sometimes conducive to obtaining
benefits and reducing conflict, they also might lead to asymmetries in dependence and
thus become an important source of influence for big power (Keohane and Nye 2001,
9–16, 196–97). For instance, although the Philippines has enjoyed economic gains
from China in recent years, it simultaneously has born the costs due to asymmetrical
interdependence with China. After the Scarborough Shoal confrontation in 2012,
China took advantage of the Philippines’ high vulnerability, and punished the latter by
resorting to economic sanctions on the major Filipino import to China: bananas
(Cuneta and Hookway 2012). From 2011 to 2014, the Philippines’ ratio of China’s
total banana imports dropped from 91% to 68%.3 These examples suggest a slender
chance of China being compromised with the Philippines in the South China Sea.
Although China has demonstrated restraint since 2002, it is only willing to have
functional cooperation with SEA countries to buy time (Fravel 2011; Storey 1999).
China’s assertiveness in the South China Sea make the argument that China has been
enmeshed or socialized through a hedging strategy seem too optimistic and need to be
examined further. Additionally, SEA countries have been divided by the United States
3 Calculated from the ITC Trade Map Database, http://www.trademap.org/.
18
and China, especially since the United States pivoted to Asia and South China Sea
tensions escalated (Ross 2013, 31–35). For example, due to different attitudes toward
great powers among the ASEAN members and the lack of internal unity, ASEAN was
unable to issue a joint communiqué in the ASEAN Foreign Ministers Meeting for the
first time since its establishment in 2012, and failed again to reach consensus in the
Fourth ADMM+8 in 2015 (BBC 2012; Shoji and Tomikawa 2016, 153–54).
Overall, the South China Sea issue indeed affected the Philippines-China
relations, thereby making the Philippines’s hedging less effective in advancing
security relations with China than Singapore’s. For example, Singapore and China
inked “All-Round Cooperative Partnership Progressing with the Times,” suggesting
their close relations. The Philippines and China, in contrast, remain “Strategic and
Cooperative Relationship for Peace and Development.”
Table 10. The Military Exercise with China/the United States, 2002-2015
China US
Singapore
“Cooperation”-Joint Training
Exercise (2009); Exercise
Maritime Cooperation (2015)
Exercise Tiger Balm (1980), Cobra Gold
(2000), Exercise Commando Sling
(1990); SEACAT; “Merlion”-Naval
Exercise; CARAT (1996); RIMPAC
(2014)
the Philippines N.A.* Balikatan; PHIBLEX; CARAT (1996);
RIMPAC (2014)
Note: a. Only regular exercises counted. b. The numbers in parentheses represent the inaugural year.
*Held Joint Marine Search-and-Rescue Exercise in 2004, but stopped afterward.
Source: Straits Times (2015); Xinhua News Agency (2009); U.S. Marine Corps (n.d.); Commander of
U.S. Pacific Fleet (2014); U.S. Department of Defense (n.d.).
Table 11. Confidence-Building Measures with China
Annual
Security
Consultation
Strategic/Cooperative
Partners
Other
Measures via ASEAN
Singapore Yes (2008) All-Round Cooperative
Partnership Progressing
with the Times (2015) Port visit,
military
personnel
exchange,
national
defence
report, or hot
line.
ARF (1994); China-
ASEAN Strategic
Partnership for
Peace and
Prosperity (2003);
ADMM+8 (2010);
informal China-
ASEAN Defence
Ministers’ Meeting
(2011); EAMF
(2012)
the Philippines Yes (2005)
Strategic and
Cooperative
Relationship for Peace
and Development
(2005)
Note: The numbers in parentheses denote inaugural year.
19
Hedging Strategy and Domestic Politics
Although hedgers have opportunities to gain more benefits from the great powers,
there are abundant cases showing the influence of domestic politics on hedging
effectiveness. The Philippines has protectionist inclinations and divided domestic
groups, thus constraining its government’ hedging capabilities. Some of the economic
cooperation deals between the Philippines and China or the United States are stalled
or blocked by domestic players (Naya and Plummer 2005, 294; Solingen 2008, 25;
Tongzon 2005). For instance, despite the Philippines expressed high interests in
joining TPP, the domestic factors, including the degree of liberalization, local
regulations, and interest groups, limit their ambitions to adopt dual tracks: TPP and
RCEP, which are integral for hedgers to reap both benefits from the great powers.
Also, some studies indicate that nationalism had impacts on Philippine foreign
policies. For instance, in 2004, the Philippines and China singed Joint Marine Seismic
Undertaking (JMSU), agreeing to have joint exploration on natural gas and oil in the
South China Sea. However, because of strong opposition in the Philippines,
Philippine government was forced to cease this cooperation deal (Baviera 2012;
Emmers 2010, 75–80, 132; Tan 2010, 42–43). These examples indicate that domestic
factors have the potentials for impeding hedging effects, such as delaying the
cooperation process between the Philippines and China.
Conclusion and Discussion
Overall, we found that Singapore and the Philippines have enhanced security ties
with the United States and acquired economic benefits from China. However, while
prior literature claims that a hedger can maximize national interests from the United
States and China, we found that some factors may be constrain the efficacy of hedging.
Our findings suggest that hedging’s effectiveness is affected by domestic politics in
the Philippines because of its domestic politics and territorial dispute with China.
Our analysis extends existing literature on hedging and on SEA countries’
relations with China and the United States. First, we offer contributions to the
research on the hedging concept, which has not been clearly defined nor thoroughly
explored in terms of its the differences from other well-developed strategic concepts.
We clarify hedging as a strategy combining different tools (e.g., military
modernization cum warm trade exchanges), separating issue-areas (e.g., traditional
20
security, non-traditional security, and investment), and diversifying target states (e.g.,
the United States and China). Second, we argue that specific areas show different
results. In the economic realm, minor powers in SEA can reap benefits from China
and the United States. On the other hand, regarding military-security area, due to
territorial disputes and domestic constraints, the Philippines gained fewer benefits
than in the economic realm. Therefore, this paper suggests that future examinations of
strategic ties between SEA hedgers and major powers need to consider the separation
of issue areas and the influence of domestic politics. But this is not to argue that
domestic constraints are the defining elements of SEA’s relations with China and the
United States or that hedging is not effective.
This research addresses only a few aspects of the larger set of issues related to
hedging and SEA’s relations with China and the Unites States. Some important
questions that merit further examination include the factors that account for minor
powers’ preference for hedging and their openness to change. Will hedging stop
because the relations between the United States and China worsen? Why, when and
how does hedging cease? These are questions worth future research.
21
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