The effect of the crisis on consumption György Molnár and Zsuzsa Kapitány Institute of Economics...
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Transcript of The effect of the crisis on consumption György Molnár and Zsuzsa Kapitány Institute of Economics...
The effect of the crisis on consumption
György Molnár and Zsuzsa Kapitány Institute of Economics
Economics of Crisis, Education and LabourSEBA – IE CASS – IEHAS, Chinese - Hungarian International Conference
30th June -1st July 2011, Budapest
Source: HCSO: National Accounts http://portal.ksh.hu/pls/ksh/docs/hun/xstadat/xstadat_eves/i_qpt007.html Consumption: http://portal.ksh.hu/pls/ksh/docs/hun/xstadat/xstadat_eves/i_zhc004.html
Real net income and consumption of households, on the basis of the national accounts
2000=100
Net quarterly change of bank loan volumes of households, adjusted for exchange rate changes, seasonally adjusted
Source: MNB (The Central Bank of Hungary): http://www.mnb.hu/Kiadvanyok/mnbhu_stabil/mnbhu_stab_jel_201004
Share of defaulted retail loans (%)
Source: PSZÁF (Hungarian Financial Supervisory Authority): The HFSA’s Second Risk Report in 2010,http://www.pszaf.hu/data/cms2217968/riskreport_2010H1.pdf
Micro data
Waves of Household Budget Survey of the Central Statistical Office, 2007-2009
• No panel data• Monthly household records + annual interviews in early
next year• Monthly household records by minimum 1500 persons • Monthly households records sample distortion, top of
the income scale is truncated• Relatively large datasets:
– 2007: 7388 households, 19183 persons– 2008: 7274 households, 18946 persons– 2009: 7718 households, 19632 persons
Methodological remarks
• Individual equalised income (with e = 0.73 elasticity coefficient) rather than per capita income Using OECD1 consumption units no significant difference
• Expenditures = consumption + new construction, renovation, purchase of real estate
• Narrowed expenditures = consumption + installments related ot housing or real estate loans
• Consumption = current consumption + durable goods • Three types of deflation:
– using annual consumer price indices uniformly– using annual price indices by product groups – using monthly price indices
Consumption of purchased goods monthly data on prices of Jan 2007, deflated
by products
* Household contains at least one child under 14
% % % %
Role of installments for people having housing loan – bottom and
top deciles
Share of housing loan repayment in expenditures (%)Share of persons having housing loan (%)
Distribution of equalised consumption by product groups in
2007, total population
Distribution of equalised
consumption by product groups in 2007, bottom and
top income deciles
Changes of distribution of
consumption on current prices
Food
Household energy
Housing maintenance
Communication
Durables
Other
Changes of distribution of consumption,
deflated by product groups
Food
Household energy
Housing maintenance
Communication
Durables
Other
Inequalities
Income Expend. Consumption Income Expend. Consumption
22
2
1
2
21
21
21
)2( CVy
nGE
n
i
i
11
21
)1(1
n
i iynGE
Income Consumption
Consumption inequalities by regions