The Economy Today

The Economy Today: WhatThe Economy Today: What our measures tell us about the

current labor market

Keith HallCommissioneCommissioner

Bureau of Labor StatisticsJune 2011

Total nonfarm employmentTotal nonfarm employmentOver-the-month change, 2008-11

Seasonally adjusted, in thousands

192

277

458

171

235194

232300

500

13

-83-72 -55 -39-35

192

-49-59-29

171

93152

68 54

-100

100

-185-233

-178

-231-267

-434

-509

-386

-502

-300

-231-236

-221

-130

-192

-500

-300

-509

-802

-619

-820

-726

-796

-660

-502

-900

-700

2

900Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics survey, June 3, 2011.Note: Most recent 2 months of CES data are preliminary.

Total nonfarm payrolls vs. equipment and software investment

301200 rate

investment

Seasonally adjusted

Over-the-quarter change, 2000-11

10

20

400

800

r, a

nn

ual

ized

-20

-10

0

-800

-400

0

edin

g qu

arte

r

thou

san

ds

-40

-30

-1600

-1200

ge f

rom

pre

ce

In

Total nonfarm payrolls

-60

-50

-2400

-2000

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

Per

cen

t ch

ang

Equipment & software investment

3

P

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (CES) survey and the Bureau of Economic AnalysisNote: Shaded areas represent recessions as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). Most recent 2 months of CES data are preliminary.

Peak-to-trough employment decline, by

5.0

Peak to trough employment decline, by downturn

Seasonally adjusted, percent

0.0

Total Nonfarm Goods-Producing Private Service-Providing

-5.0

-15.0

-10.0

-20.0

4

-25.01953 1957 1960 1969 1973 1980 1981 1990 2001 2008

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics survey.

Percentage change in total private employment

7.0

from private nonfarm peakPercentage change in total private employment,


3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

1981

-1 0

0.0

1.0

2.0

1980

1974

1990

1981

5 0

-4.0

-3.0

-2.0

-1.0

2000

-8.0

-7.0

-6.0

-5.0

2007-present

5

-6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40

MonthsSource: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics survey, June 3, 2011.

Percentage change in total private employment

14.0

from NBER designated troughPercentage change in total private employment,


9 010.011.012.013.0

5 06.07.08.09.0

1974

1982

1.02.03.04.05.0

2007-present1980

1990

-2.0-1.00.01.0

-6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36

2007 present2000

6

MonthsSource: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics survey, June 3, 2011.

Civilian unemployment rateCivilian unemployment rate1990-2011


9

10

11

Unemployment rate =

7

8

9 Unemployment rate = 9.1% in May. 2011

5

6

7

3

4

5

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey. Note: Shaded areas represent recessions as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research.

7

31990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

Civilian labor force and unemployment levels 2007-11

155,000 18,000Seasonally adjusted, in thousands

154,000

154,500

,

14,000

16,000

,

Labor force level

152,500

153,000

153,500

10,000

12,000

151,500

152,000

5 ,500

4 000

6,000

8,000

Unemployment level

150,000

150,500

151,000

0

2,000

4,000

150,000 0Jan-07 Sep-07 May-08 Jan-09 Sep-09 May-10 Jan-11

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey. Note: The shaded area represents a recession as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research. Data for the labor force reflect adjustments for annual population control updates.

8

Gap between employment and the employment level

160,000

p p y p yneeded to keep up with population growth, 2008-11

Seasonally adjusted

155,000

145 000

150,000

usa

nds

140,000

145,000

In t

hou

135,000

LF(0.8%) LF Employment (0.8%) Employment

9

130,0002008 2009 2010 2011

Source: Current Population Survey, June 3, 2011. Annual employment growth rate

Gap between NYC employment and the employment level

4 100 000

Gap between NYC employment and the employment level needed to keep up with NYC population growth, 2008-11

Seasonally adjusted

4,000,000

4,100,000

3,900,000

ands

3,700,000

3,800,000

In t

hou

sa

3,600,000


10

3,500,0002008 2009 2010 2011

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics program. Annual employment growth rate.

Gap between NYS employment and the employment level needed to keep up with NYS population growth

10,000,000

level needed to keep up with NYS population growth, 2008-11

Seasonally adjusted

9,750,000

9,500,000

usa

nds

9,000,000

9,250,000

In t

hou

8,750,000


11

8,500,0002008 2009 2010 2011

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics program. Annual employment growth rate.

Employment-population ratio


p y p p1990-2011

Percent65

64

65

62

63

60

61

May 2011 Level: 58.4

58

59

Change: 0.0

12Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey. Note: Shaded areas represent recessions as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research.

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

Employment population ratio by age

90Seasonally adjusted, percent

Employment-population ratio, by age1990-2011

80

Age 25-54

Age 20-24

60

70g

40

50

Age 16-19

30Age 55+

13

201990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey.

Unemployment rates for persons 25 years and older by educational attainment


educational attainment 1992-2011

Percent16

12

14

16

8

10

12

rcen

t

Less than a high school diploma

4

6

8

Per

High school graduates, no college

0

2Bachelor's degree and higherSome college or associate degree

Note: Shaded areas represent recessions as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey. 14

1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

Unemployment rates for whites, blacks or African Americans and persons of Hispanic or Latino ethnicityAmericans, and persons of Hispanic or Latino ethnicity 1990-2011

Seasonally adjusted, percentPercent20

16

18

20

10

12

14

Blacks or African-Americans

6

8

10

Whi

Hispanic or Latino ethnicity

0

2

4 Whites

15Note: Shaded areas represent recessions as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey.

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

Index of local government employment from

106

beginning of recession*

Seasonally adjusted

103

104

105

sion

= 1

00

1990

2001

2007

101

102

103

nth

of

the

rece

ss

98

99

100

wh

ere

firs

t m

on

96

97

98

6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40

Inde

x w

16

-6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40Month

*Note: Business cycle peak as determined by NBER

Employment in construction

8,000

Employment in construction 2000-11


7,500

6,500

7,000

5 500

6,000May 2011

Level: 5,529

5,000

5,500

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

17

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics survey, June 3, 2011.Note: Shaded areas represent recessions as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research. Most recent 2 months of data are preliminary.

Financial activities employment

8,6008,600

Financial activities employment1999-2011


8,200

8,400

,

8,200

8,400

,

7,800

8,000

7,800

8,000

7,400

7,600

7,400

7,600

Since a peak in December 2006,employment has fallen

-8.8%

7,000

7,200

7,000

7,200

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

18

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics survey, June 3, 2011.

Shaded areas represent recessions as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research.

Note: Most recent 2 months of CES data are preliminary.

Unemployment rates by state, seasonally adjustedApril 2011Unemployment rates by state, seasonally adjusted

MountainWest

North Central

p 0(U.S. rate = 9.0 percent)

p y y , y jApril 2011

MONT.

ORE.

S.D.

N.D.

MINN.

IDAHO WIS.N.Y.

WASH.MAINE

VT. N.H.MASS.

Mountain North CentralEast

North CentralNew England

MiddleAtlantic

CALIF.

NEV.

WYO.

COLO. KAN. MO.

NEB.

UTAHILL.

PA.

KY

IOWA

IND.OHIO

MICH.

W.VA.

MD.

DEL.

N.J.

R.I.CONN.

TEXAS

N.M.ARIZ.

GA.

OKLA.N.C.

KY.

ALA.

VA.

ARK.

MISS.S.C.

TENN. D.C.

PacificSouth

Atlantic

TEXASLA.

FLA.

12.0% or higher

10.0% to 11.9%

EastSouth Central

WestSouth Central

19

10.0% to 11.9%

8.0% to 9.9%

6.0% to 7.9%

5.9% or lower

HAWAIIALASKA SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Local Area Unemployment Statistics

Share of total private employment losses by

70

Share of total private employment losses by firm size, recent downturn vs. 2001 downturn


57.4

50

60

70

2001 downturn

32.7

39.0

30

40Recent downturn

12.6

17.820.4

22.9

10

20

-2.6-10

0

20

1-9 10-49 50-499 500 and overSource: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Business Employment Dynamics program.Note: Data are preliminary. The recent downturn spans the employment downturn from Q1 2008 to Q1 2010. The 2001 downturn runs from Q2 2001 to Q2 2003. The percentages represent each size classes’ share of net employment losses over the given time period.

Long Term Unemployment

7 000

Long Term Unemployment 1990-2010

Not seasonally adjusted, annual averages

6,000

7,000

4,000

5,000

2,000

3,000

99 weeks or longer

52 weeks or longer

27 weeks or longer

0

1,000

21

1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey, annual average data

Share of long term unemployment by ageShare of long term unemployment, by ageMay 2011

Labor force Long-term unemployed

66.462.770

80

Labor force Long term unemployed

40

50

60

13.520.118.9 18.320

30

0

10

16 to 24 years 25 to 54 years 55 years and over

22


Share of long term unemployment, by raceg p y , yMay 2011

81.2

69 080

90Labor force Long-term unemployed

69.0

50

60

70

23.017 2

30

40

50

11.5 14.8 17.2

0

10

20

23

White Black Hispanic


Share of long term unemployment, by g p y , yeducation (25 years and over) May 2011

b f l d

35.236.0

29 035

40

Labor force Long-term unemployed

28.4 27.6 29.0

20.020

25

30

8.8

15.0

10

15

0

5

Less than HS diploma

HS diploma Some college or associate

College

24

diploma associate


Consumer Price Index

6.0

Consumer Price Index 2001-11

Seasonally adjusted, 1982-84 = 100

4.0

5.0

ge

2.0

3.0

h p

erce

nt

chan

g

-1.0

0.0

1.0

12

-mon

th

CPI-U Core CPI

-3.0

-2.0

1.0

25

2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index

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