The Economy - Office of the Comptroller City of New York · • 1.6 illion New Yorkers at risk of...

New York City Comptroller Scott M. Stringer @scottmstringer

New York City Comptroller Scott M. Stringer

The Economy



-176

-84

6

40 3544

6777 85

97

-22

-112

-40

20

5265 73

45

-106

27

94 90 95

129115

85

-200

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

Thou

sand

s of

jobs

Current Expansion Most Robust in Recent HistoryPrivate-Sector Net Job Creation, in Thousands

S&L Crisis

Dot com;9-11

Great Recession

635,000451,000 255,000


12.0%

9.9%

8.4% 8.4% 8.2%

7.3%

5.5%

4.7% 4.7%5.4%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

Bronx Brooklyn Manhattan Queens S.I

Une

mpl

oym

ent R

ate

The Impact of the Expansion Has Been Felt Throughout the CityImprovement in Borough Unemployment Rates, 2009-2016

2009 2016


189,183

166,975

46,400

77,392

101,125

$39,504

$52,675

$70,805

$132,959

$165,440

$0

$20,000

$40,000

$60,000

$80,000

$100,000

$120,000

$140,000

$160,000

$180,000

-

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

180,000

200,000

Retail, L&H Educ. & Healthcare Industrial TAMI Business Svcs.

Aver

age

Wag

e, 2

015

Cha

nge

in J

obs,

200

9-20

16

Biggest Growth in Lower-Wage Jobs

Change in Jobs, 2009-2016

Avg. Wage 2015


2.6%0.0%

3.7%

14.2%

9.2%

$0

$20,000

$40,000

$60,000

$80,000

$100,000

$120,000

$140,000

$160,000

$180,000

Retail Eds & Meds Industrial TAMI Business

Biggest Wage Gains for Highest Earners

20092015

Percentage Change in Real Average Wages, 2009-2015


2.9%

2.4% 2.5%

2.0%

1.6% 1.6%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Perc

ent c

hang

e, y

ear-o

ver-y

ear

Trump Policies Will Slow Economic GrowthAnnual percent change in GCP


The Budget



Mayor’s FY 2018 Preliminary Budget Contains Many Laudable Initiatives

EDUCATION• 300 new school crossing guards to cover all crossings• Faster internet in all schools by 2020• Raise reading levelsPUBLIC SAFETY• Bullet-resistant window inserts for NYPD patrol vehicles• Expand the Gun Violence Crisis Management SystemHOUSING• $1 billion to replace roofs at 729 NYCHA buildings


January 2017 Financial Plan($ in billions)

$3.3

$2.5

$1.8

$84.7

$87.9

$91.1

$93.8

$84.8

$91.2

$93.6

$95.6

$82

$84

$86

$88

$90

$92

$94

$96

FY 2017 FY 2018 FY 2019 FY 2020 FY 2021

Expenditures

Revenues


January 2017 Financial Plan Adjusted for Pre-Payments($ in billions)

$3.3

$2.5

$1.8

$84.7

$87.9

$91.1

$93.8

$85.8

$91.2

$93.6

$95.6

$82

$84

$86

$88

$90

$92

$94

$96

FY 2017 FY 2018 FY 2019 FY 2020 FY 2021

Expenditures

Revenues

$3.1$0.98

$84.8

$87.7


Accumulation of the Year-End Budget Surplus

$4,665

$2,945

$2,462

$2,006

$3,055

$35

$1,755

$701

$96

$1,280

$376$832

$1,518

$514$983

$0

$500

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

$2,500

$3,000

$3,500

$4,000

$4,500

$5,000

FY 2007 FY 2008 FY 2009 FY 2010 FY 2011 FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017

Addition to Prior-Year Surplus

Subtraction from Prior-Year Surplus

($ in

milli

ons) $2,838

$3,524

$4,038

$4,700

$3,646 $3,742


Change in the Gap Since FY 2017 Budget Adoption

($ in millions) FY 2017 FY 2018 FY 2019 FY 2020Gap as of Adopted Budget $ - ($2,816) ($2,945) ($2,326)

REVENUESTax Revenues 238 (183) 8 329 Non-Tax Revenues 403 (112) (116) (13)

Revenue Changes $641 ($295) ($108) $316 EXPENDITURES

Agency Expenses 392 588 696 940 Citywide Savings Plan (1,206) (894) (686) (690)General Reserve (700) 0 0 0 Capital Stabilization Reserve (500) 250 250 250 Re-estimate of Prior Years Payables (400) 0 0 0

Expenditure Changes ($2,414) ($56) $260 $500

Surplus /(Gap) Before Prepayments $3,055 ($3,055) ($3,313) ($2,510)Prepayments (3,055) 3,055 - -

Gap as of January Plan $ - $ - ($3,313) ($2,510)


Components of the Citywide Savings Program

Spending Re-estimates$661 31%

Funding Shifts$651 31%

Debt Service$603 29%

Agency Efficiencies$139 7%

Accruals$36 2%

New Revenue$9 0%

Combined FY 2017 & 2018Citywide Savings Plan$2.1 billion total$ in millions


2.7%

4.2%

3.0%2.7%

1.7%

2.1%

0.6%

1.3%

1.0%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%

May 2008 May 2009 May 2010 May 2011 May 2012 May 2013 May 2015 June 2016 Jan 2017

Savi

ngs

(PEG

) Pro

gram

as

Perc

ent o

f City

-Fun

ds S

pend

ing

Agency Contribution to Savings is Low

Average Agency Savings: 1.0%

Average Agency Savings: 2.7%


Citywide Funding for Homeless Services Continues to Rise($ in millions)

$1,036 $1,120

$1,175

$1,433

$1,835

$2,295

$762 $857

$919

$1,028

$1,211

$1,439

$600

$800

$1,000

$1,200

$1,400

$1,600

$1,800

$2,000

$2,200

$2,400

FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017

Shelter

Citywide Total


$0

$100,000

$200,000

$300,000

$400,000

$500,000

$600,000

$700,000C

ost p

er D

ay$102 million for Commercial Hotels in 2016


$791 $801$906 $955

$1,081

$1,298$1,432

$901$984 $1,043

$1,170

$1,401

$1,689$1,689

$1,857

$0

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

$1,200

$1,400

$1,600

$1,800

$2,000

FY 12 FY 13 FY 14 FY 15 FY 16 FY 17 FY 18

$ in

milli

ons

Actual DHS Spending Routinely Exceeds Budget

Adopted Budget Actual Expenditures Projected Spending(2017 budgeted)


Many Critical Services Reliant on $7 Billion in Federal Aid


Budgetary Risks of ACA Repeal

• 1.6 million New Yorkers at risk of losing coverage

• City support has doubled to $2.1 billion

• Higher unreimbursed cost of uninsured care

• $200 million annual federal revenues at risk

• $305 million annual cost to City from potential lossof Enhanced FMAP savings


Comptroller’s Risks and OffsetsDifference from January Plan Projections

($ in millions) FY 2017 FY 2018 FY 2019 FY 2020 FY 2021CITY STATED GAP $0 $0 ($3,313) ($2,510) ($1,793)

REVENUESTax Forecast $154 $567 $392 $247 $206 Fines & Penalties 17 34 34 34 34 Sales Tax Intercept (50) (200) (150) 0 0 Taxi Medallion Sales 0 0 (107) (257) (367)

Total, Revenues $121 $401 $169 $24 ($127)EXPENDITURESOvertime ($276) ($215) ($215) ($215) ($215)DOE Medicaid Reimbursement (20) (70) (70) (70) (70)Homeless Shelters 0 (132) (132) (132) (132)NYC Health + Hospitals (165) (165) (165) (165) (165)PA 15 10 10 10 10 VRDB Rate Savings 70 30 30 30 30 General Reserve 300 0 0 0 0

Total, Expenditures ($76) ($542) ($542) ($542) ($542)Total (Risks)/Offsets $45 ($141) ($373) ($518) ($669)

RESTATED GAP $45 ($141) ($3,686) ($3,028) ($2,462)


8.2%

2.0%

17.4%

6.4%

11.1%

10.0%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

FY2001

FY2002

FY2003

FY2004

FY2005

FY2006

FY2007

FY2008

FY2009

FY2010

FY2011

FY2012

FY2013

FY2014

FY2015

FY2016

FY2017

FY2018

Perc

ent o

f Adj

uste

d Ex

pend

iture

s

City’s Reserve Cushion is Inadequate


Education/School Construction

$20.4

Environmental Protection

$17.7

Transportation$14.7

Housing$9.2

Parks & Recreation$3.3

Resiliency & Energy Efficiency

$3.1

Economic Development$2.9

Sanitation$2.8

Health & Hospitals$2.3

All Other$13.1

Ten-Year Capital Strategy: $89.6 billion$ in billions


Capital Commitments Continue to Fall Well Short of Plan($ in billions)

$7.4

$9.3 $8.5

$0

$2

$4

$6

$8

$10

$12

$14

$16

FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2016

Actual Commitments Authorized Commitments

52%

65%57%

$14.2 $14.2$14.9

New York City Comptroller Scott M. Stringer @scottmstringer

The Economy - Office of the Comptroller City of New York · • 1.6 illion New Yorkers at risk of...

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Transcript of The Economy - Office of the Comptroller City of New York · • 1.6 illion New Yorkers at risk of...