The Economics of

NBA Star Power Digital Humanities 150

Final Project

Matt Fisher

March 13, 2013

Research Question

• What is an NBA player’s value to his franchise and which NBA player is the most valuable* to his franchise?

• *Valuable algorithm:

Salary

Production

Legacy

Social Significance

Background

• Global market for sports (especially basketball) is growing rapidly ▫ Sports analysis and journalism growing too

• Index of player value would benefit fans and General Managers alike

• What is value of a player to a team/franchise/city?

• Social significance a fact but does not solely determine if Player A or B is better

• No index or award encompasses it all

The Players

• 1 Lebron James • 2 Kevin Durant • 3 Dwight Howard • 4 Chris Paul • 5 Derrick Rose • 6 Kobe Bryant • 7 Kevin Love • 8 Dwyane Wade • 9 Russell Westbrook • 10 Deron Williams

• As determined by ESPN Player Rank survey • 104 Basketball Experts

ranked every NBA player on 10 pt scale

• Experts from ESPN.com, the TrueHoop Network, TrueHoop TV, Daily Dime Live, ESPN TV, ESPN Radio, ESPN Deportes, espnW, ESPN The Magazine, ESPN Insider, ESPN Fantasy, ESPN Games, ESPN Dallas, ESPN Los Angeles, ESPN Chicago, ESPN New York, ESPN Stats & Information, ESPN Topics and ESPN Analytics

Methodology • 23 Variables • Each player evaluated relative on a 10 point scale

• Data examined & reviewed in 4 categories ▫ Salary, Production, Legacy

Hand-picked statistics ▫ Social Value

Facebook, Twitter, YouTube, Klout, Television, Economic Impact

Methodology

• Data analysis

▫ The Algorithm

1 Salary Variable

Weighted 20%

5 Production Variables

Weighted 35%

6 Legacy Variables

Weighted 15%

11 Social Variables

Weighted 30%

▫ Every Variable ranked 1-10 Some weighted more than

others Ex. NBA Championships more

influential than Olympic Medals

▫ 3 Methods of Evaluation Relative Rank (1-10)

Ex. PPG, Jersey Sales, Twitter Followers

Percentage Rank (1-10) Ex. Salary, Endorsement

All or Nothing (0, 5, or 10) Ex. Attendance, franchise

revenue

Salaries

League Rank

Player Team 2013 Salary

1 Kobe Bryant Los Angeles Lakers $27,849,149

5 Dwight Howard Miami Heat $19,536,360

8 Chris Paul Oklahoma City Thunder $17,779,458

10 Lebron James Miami Heat $17,545,000

11 Dwyane Wade Los Angeles Clippers $17,182,000

12 Deron Williams Chicago Bulls $17,177,795

15 Kevin Durant Oklahoma City Thunder $16,669,629

18 Derrick Rose Los Angeles Lakers $16,402,500

24 Russell Westbrook Minnesota Timberwolves $13,668,793

25 Kevin Love Brooklyn Nets $13,668,750

Production

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Kev

in D

ura

nt

Ko

be

Bry

an

t

Leb

ron

Ja

mes

Kev

in L

ov

e*

Ru

sse

ll W

estb

roo

k

Der

rick

Ro

se*

Dw

ya

ne

Wa

de

Der

on

Wil

lia

ms

Ch

ris

Pa

ul

Dw

igh

t H

ow

ard

2013PointsPerGameCareerPointsPerGame

*Statistics from 2011-2012 season due to injury

• On the court impact of a player on any given game

• What statistics make a basketball player “good” on the court? • Points Per Game • Assists Per Game • Rebounds Per Game • Plus/Minus • Game-Winning Shots

Legacy • A player’s historic

value • What quantitative

values convey historic significance? ▫ All-Star Selections ▫ All-NBA Team

Selections ▫ NBA

Championships ▫ League MVPs ▫ Olympic Medals ▫ Career Points Per

Game

•1 NBA Championship •8 All Star Selections •3 Olympic Medals

Lebron James

•0 NBA Championships •4 All Star Selections •2 Olympic Medals

Kevin Durant

•0 NBA Championships •7 All Star Selections •1 Olympic Medal

Dwight Howard

•0 NBA Championships •6 All Star Selections •2 Olympic Medals

Chris Paul

•0 NBA Championships •3 All Star Selections •0 Olympic Medals

Derrick Rose

•5 NBA Championships •14 All Star Selections •2 Olympic Medals

Kobe Bryant

•0 NBA Championships • 2 All Star Selections • 1 Olympic Medal

Kevin Love

•2 NBA Championships •9 All Star Selections •2 Olympic Medals

Dwyane Wade

•0 NBA Championships •3 All Star Selections •1 Olympic Medal

Russell Westbrook

•0 NBA Championships •3 All Star Selections •2 Olympic Medals

Deron Williams

Legacy

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16L

ebro

n J

am

es

Kev

in D

ura

nt

Dw

igh

t H

ow

ard

Ch

ris

Pa

ul

Der

rick

Ro

se

Ko

be

Bry

an

t

Kev

in L

ov

e

Dw

ya

ne

Wa

de

Ru

sse

ll W

estb

roo

k

Der

on

Wil

lia

ms

All Star Selections

All NBA TeamSelections

League MVP

*Career Totals

Social Value • How important is this player to fans? • Player popularity, team media coverage, all franchise benefit are all

interconnected • How do we quantify a player’s social influence on his team?

▫ Twitter Twitter followers User mentions on NBA Twitter Account

▫ Facebook Facebook fans Facebook talking about*

▫ Klout Rank among NBA players

▫ Youtube Views of most popular video

▫ Endorsement Earnings ▫ Jersey Sales ▫ Nationally Televised Games ▫ Team Attendance ▫ Team Revenue

*Like a page, post on the page wall, like a post, comment on a post, share a post, answer a question, RSVP to a page’s event, mention the page in a post, tag the page in a photo, check in at a place, share a check-in deal, like a check-in deal, write a recommendation, claim an offer

Social Value

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Leb

ron

Ja

mes

Kev

in D

ura

nt

Dw

igh

t H

ow

ard

Ch

ris

Pa

ul

Der

rick

Ro

se

Ko

be

Bry

an

t

Kev

in L

ov

e

Dw

ya

ne

Wa

de

Ru

sse

ll W

estb

roo

k

Der

on

Wil

lia

ms

Klout Rank Jersey Sales Rank

0

5

10

15

20

25

Leb

ron

Ja

mes

Kev

in D

ura

nt

Dw

igh

t H

ow

ard

Ch

ris

Pa

ul

Der

rick

Ro

se

Ko

be

Bry

an

t

Kev

in L

ov

e

Dw

ya

ne

Wa

de

Ru

sse

ll W

estb

roo

k

Der

on

Wil

lia

ms

Nationally Televised Games 2013

Twitter Analysis • NBA Account

▫ UserMentions per 2,000 tweets

• Twitter API

▫ List csv UserMentions

UserMentions

Lebron James Kevin Durant

Dwight Howard Chris Paul

Derrick Rose Kobe Bryant

Kevin Love Dwyane Wade

Russell Westbrook Deron Williams

Twitter Analysis

• Activity level of Twitter database based off Twitter API • Total tweets and date of last tweet

from NBA account followers

440

461

443 199

775

Users By Total Tweets

0 to 10

10 to 100

100 to 500

500 to1000

0.00%5.00%

10.00%15.00%20.00%25.00%30.00%35.00%

Last 24Hours

LastWeek

Last 2Weeks

LastMonth

Last 3Months

Last 6Months

Last 1Year

> 1Year

Followers by Date of Last Tweet

Facebook Analysis

• Fan Page Interaction

▫ Engagement in last week

Likes, Comments, and Posts

Facebook Analysis

02,000,0004,000,0006,000,0008,000,000

10,000,00012,000,00014,000,00016,000,000

Leb

ron

Ja

mes

Ke

vin

Du

ran

tD

wig

ht

Ho

wa

rdC

hri

s P

au

lD

erri

ck R

ose

Ko

be

Bry

an

tK

evin

Lo

ve

Dw

ya

ne

Wa

de

Ru

sse

ll…

Der

on

Wil

lia

ms

Fan Page Likes

050,000

100,000150,000

200,000250,000

Leb

ron

Ja

mes

Kev

in D

ura

nt

Dw

igh

t H

ow

ard

Ch

ris

Pa

ul

Der

rick

Ro

seK

ob

e B

rya

nt

Ke

vin

Lo

ve

Dw

ya

ne

Wa

de

Ru

sse

ll…

Der

on

Wil

lia

ms

Fan Page Talking About

Visualization

• 3D Funnel representing weighted averages of each category

• Web graphic call out for social value section • Weighted average of each social

category

NBA Player

Production

Social Value

Legacy

Salary

Player Index

Findings

Rank Player Salary Index

Production Index

Legacy Index

Social Index

Total Weighted Average

1 Kobe Bryant 10 7.65 7.663 8.168 8.27735

2 Lebron James 6.3 8.25 7.625 9.76 8.21925

3 Kevin Durant 5.99 7.95 3.213 7.08 6.58645

4 Dwyane Wade 6.17 5.35 4.838 7.21 5.9952

5 Chris Paul 6.38 4.375 2.838 5.576 4.90575

6 Derrick Rose 5.89 3.95 2.075 5.208 4.43415

7 Russell Westbrook 4.91 3.6 0.913 6.01 4.3629

8 Dwight Howard 7.02 2.2 2.538 5.488 4.2011

9 Kevin Love 4.91 5.2 2.038 4.184 4.18195

10 Deron Williams 6.17 3.575 2.088 2.924 3.67565

Limitations of Data Analysis

• Subjectivity ▫ Calculated variability in assumptions of weight per

category and categories selected Winning games most important

10% more important than social value

• Relativity ▫ Amplified discrepancy between player ratings due to

comparison against each other

• Variability ▫ Length of career, team location, quality of teammates,

length of contract all affect player index ratings

Conclusions and Recommendations • 3 Strata of Star Power

▫ Kobe and Lebron far more valuable than rest of league Negligible difference between top two

• Applications of current research ▫ Franchise leverage/connect with social media of athletes ▫ Input for negotiations of athlete salary ▫ Social value reflects fan input- pro sports exist for the fans

• Recommendations for future research ▫ Conduct statistical analysis to determine which differences in player Value are

significant and the impact of different social media options ▫ Study franchise revenue and determine correlation to player Value findings (does

franchise of the highest player value bring in highest revenue) ▫ Sensitivity Analysis regarding weight levels of criteria (test different weight levels)

and qualitative research on fan perceptions of algorithm results ▫ Expansion

Impact on franchise economics relative to home games vs. road games (does social media translate to more value at home or away)

Survey and interview to determine economic impact for cities that host professional athletic arenas (Oklahoma City decision to bring in Seattle team)